Making Hay
- 30 Apr 07, 06:20 PM
Just reported on Radio Ulster's Evening Extra that Willie Hay will be the next Speaker. Sinn Fein had been keen that the role should be rotated with two years for the DUP, followed by two years for Sinn Fein's Francie Molloy. But although they are keen to secure the position in the next Assembly, they have now conceded that the DUP can take the job for the next four years.
An eviction and an extension
- 30 Apr 07, 05:51 PM
The incoming Enterprise Minister, Nigel Dodds, has been evicted from his office at Stormont. He had to leave so the wall separating the office from the DUP's meeting room could be knocked down, in order to accommodate the bulging numbers of their Stormont team. The North Belfast MP wasn't homeless for long - in unionism's answer to the domino effect, he's been given a bigger office, which used to belong to the UK Unionist Bob McCartney.
Backscratching "inappropriate"
- 30 Apr 07, 10:23 AM
When the news broke that Bertie Ahern had been invited to address both Houses of Parliament at Westminster on May 15th, it appeared obvious that mutual backscratching was the order of the day. Bertie would say nice things about Tony the departing statesman, and in return get a newsworthy platform a few days before going to the polls in the Republic.
Over the weekend the Taoiseach confirmed the Irish election date as May 24th. Shortly afterwards the former Irish Labour leader Ruairi Quinn criticised the timing of the Westminster invitation as a serious error of judgement. Mr Quinn said the event should be rescheduled for after polling day. He added that he was sure the British authorities "would not have wanted to leave themselves open to the claim that such an event might have an impact on the internal political situation in this country."
Sinn Fein's Mary Lou McDonald has rounded on Ruairi Quinn accusing him of being "totally begrudging and negative".
So what's the betting this event will be postponed until after May 24th?
Postman knocks twice
- 30 Apr 07, 09:49 AM
Plaid are 'horrified' that some of their leaflets have been delivered to part of North Wales with BNP leaflets inside them.
It looks as though the Royal Mail who "have an incredibly difficult job to do at election time" have inserted BNP material into Plaid's 8-page brochure.
Oops.
Battlegrounds
- 30 Apr 07, 09:12 AM
In the Senedd building first thing this morning and the cleaners were already hard at it mopping the slate floor. No sign of blood after last night's debate between the party leaders but not much love lost either. Before the programme Rhodri Morgan, Nick Bourne, Mike German and their advisers shared a room, had a chat. Ieuan Wyn Jones and his team stayed away.
Some of the security staff in the Bay this morning were there last night or had been at home, watching on television. They were taken aback that Rhodri Morgan seemed to have lost the audience by the end. 'They weren't with him, were they?' Not clear who they were with mind you.
The Independent newspaper has today identified 6 battlegrounds in Wales: Montgomeryshire is in there, along with Blaenau Gwent which the paper says is 'under threat' from independent candidate Trish Law. Not quite how I'd put it.
The paper reports that Labour's canvassing returns show the party could lose six seats to the Tories - pretty much what one of the Wales 60 said that Peter Hain had told him in New Tredegar when the party launched their manifesto. Is that on top of losses to Plaid? How confident are they there won't be any of those?
Mr Hain is sticking to the mantra: "There is a real risk of the Tories coming in to power". Are you starting to believe him?
By the way I caught Karl the former (now revived) bookie scrutinising the weather forecast this morning. Odds on turnout imminent. Let's just say he's offering a 100 - 1 on a 60-61% turnout and doesn't venture any higher. More details from Vaughan later.
Scottish politics gets serious
- 29 Apr 07, 11:33 PM
So. Who had the best of the Leaders鈥 Debate on 91热爆 Scotland? Well, Annabel Goldie - as ever - delivered the best one liners.
Asked whether political correctness had ruined the justice system, she placed the blame on 鈥減olitical ineptness鈥 instead. By the governing Executive.
OK, so it鈥檚 not exactly Bob Hope standard. Maybe it sounded better when delivered in that laconic Goldie drawl.
And maybe, too, you can comfortably strive for wit when you鈥檝e already declared that you won鈥檛 enter coalition.
Perhaps Annabel Goldie finds herself in a very unusual position - a relaxed Tory, free from fretting over much. Or perhaps she鈥檚 just having a good campaign.
Other than her, Alex Salmond looked the most relaxed - although Jack McConnell was notably more combative than he鈥檚 appeared in other comparable contests.
For example, he was notably robust in tackling the SNP over their alternative for funding school building.
Nicol Stephen didn鈥檛 stumble - but he didn鈥檛 hit home all that vigorously either. Perhaps that鈥檚 the role - and fate - of a junior coalition partner.
He was, however, staunch on the issue of a referendum. No coalition deal that includes an initiative which could break the Union.
So what did we learn? We learned from Jack McConnell that the issue of Iraq may be playing on the doorsteps - with a negative impact for Labour. Did anyone think anything else?
Still, it was intriguing to hear Mr McConnell concede as much, directly. Plainly, the moment for subtle obscurantism has long gone.
Iraq鈥檚 a toughie for Labour. Face that - but remind voters that they鈥檙e deciding the future of Scotland, not Iraq.
In essence, Labour鈥檚 pitch for a week or more has been this. You may not like all that鈥檚 come out of the UK government. You may want to give Tony Blair a kicking. But he鈥檚 going soon anyway. You can鈥檛 kick him out any faster.
You won鈥檛 influence events in Iraq. But, if you protest against UK Labour, you may well end up with an SNP domestic government in Scotland and be set on the path to ending the Union.
In essence, the SNP response is this. We definitely don鈥檛 like much that has come out of the UK government. We want to supply the boots for you to give T. Blair a much-deserved kicking. We think there should be an SNP domestic government. But we鈥檒l give you another chance in a referendum to have your say on independence.
As ever when Scottish politics gets truly serious, matters revert to the core fault line - the Union or independence.
May the Fourth ...
- 29 Apr 07, 08:37 PM
The time has arrived.
People walk past the bus in Haverfordwest, saunter into the office, hang about outside the nursery and ask: well is Labour going to hold .... or will the Tories take ...?
You can bet then that any small hint of news from the many '...' of this Assembly Election are very welcome.
One honest John explained today that the envelope in which postal votes are returned are very thin, so thin that if you stare at them, you can see in which the box the cross has been put, even if they're not meant for your eyes.
So could it be that the postal votes so far returned to Cardiff North are suggesting a swing to the Tories which is edging into double figures? Early days ... And might thin paper explain why Cardiff's Lib Dems seem far more confident that the fourth list seat in South Wales Central will be theirs, not Plaid's?
Two press releases and a hint arrive today suggesting where we may be heading in this last week. Labour are putting out the simple message tomorrow that if you want the things (they hope) you regard as good - free prescriptions, free bus passes - then you have to vote Labour, despite the things (they're afraid) you regard as bad.
Rhodri Morgan has got to get the vote out and he's said so to anyone who'll listen since well before Christmas. If Labour don't get their vote out - even in seats that are rock solid - he knows the compensation from the list won't save their skins.
Meanwhile Plaid Cymru are coming out fighting on their spending promises, sensing that this is where they're vulnerable? Or sensing that this is where they'll come under attack from now until Thursday?
Eurfyl ap Gwilym, the man behind Plaid's maths, is coming to Cardiff. He's been promised to us 'on the other end of a phone' and has delivered answers but tomorrow, we can see the look on his face when he's asked whether Plaid can really afford those laptops ... and those cheques for first time buyers ... and a three-year spending plan every other party has attacked as irresponsible and hopelessly optimistic.
Expect the same line of attack from the Tories this week. Last week's polls tell us they've got the motive to attack Plaid on their maths. I suspect they think they may have found the means as well.
Best line of a long weekend: "May the Fourth be with you!"
Quite.
Make your mind up time
- 28 Apr 07, 12:05 PM
Alex Salmond, politician, we鈥檙e used to. But Alex Salmond, sporting hero? At Stirling University today, he took to the tennis courts 鈥 and appeared to wield a fairly mean backhand.
He鈥檚 spent the campaign in modest mode but couldn鈥檛 resist mentioning that he had once triumphed in a tennis tournament.
However, he added that his victory was due to an injury sustained by his opponent who was two sets up at the time.
This was delivered with a broad grin. In fact, the Nationalists are finding it hard to assume any other countenance. They try, they really try, to look grave and concerned. But then they read another opinion poll 鈥 and can鈥檛 avoid the odd guffaw.
Privately, though, listen to the sensible strategists on the SNP side (these days, they are numerous 鈥 and serious.)
They will tell you that the voters are engaged as never before. They cross the street, not to avoid canvassers but to sound them out on a range of policy issues.
However, that engagement contains a range of responses. There are switchers aplenty, say the SNP team. But there are many others who are undecided. They are engaging with the SNP 鈥 but to question them, to challenge them, to put them to the test.
Also, the strategists know that a lead in the polls might not translate into a uniform swing across Scotland. For example, the SNP might pile up big majorities in one part of the country, say the North-east, while falling short in the seats they need elsewhere, say in the West.
Traditionally, the last weekend of a campaign is billed as 鈥渕ake your mind up time鈥. Voters look at their options, seriously. Helping them in that process will be the 91热爆鈥檚 TV election special with the leaders on Sunday evening.
I鈥檒l be scrutinising that, eagerly.
Before that, though, I鈥檓 off to Tannadice this weekend to see the lads triumph once more. C鈥檓on the Terrors!
Everything you wanted to know .. .
- 28 Apr 07, 10:49 AM
I'm surrounded by photos of candidates , marker pens, a terrifying document called "Everything you wanted to know about regional lists but were afraid to ask", polling details, manifesto pledges ... in other words, I'm doing my homework for next Thursday night.
Pinned on the wall next to me is a reminder of who we'll be talking to that night. I don't mean candidates, agents, analysts but who'll be at home watching and listening - people we've been trying to engage and say something to throughout the campaign.
A postcard's arrived from the Dysynni Valley. It's from Louise or as she signs off (No 60 of Wales 60). P.S. I live by the dot. She's been telling us how beautiful the place is and sends a card to prove it.
On Tuesday I was chatting to another couple of W60s - Dave Burton and Jason Lewis. Dave B has been campaigning to get something done about putting speed bumps on the road that goes past his house. No-one took much notice he said until he happened to mention he was now 'a member of the Wales 60!'. He's planning to vote tactically. Jason is still not a big fan of the Assembly and is jetting off to the Canaries on the night of May 3rd. But he'ill vote before he goes.
Mary Elen Rowlands from Anglesey said she'd had a great time since being 'elected' as one of the 60! She's talked to politicians, been braver and said more than she ever thought she would.
Ross Thomas has told Five Live listeners all about the battles his had with his 7 housemates in Swansea who put up Tory posters in their windows just to annoy him. He'd like to be a Labour AM one day.
Nearly all of the 60 have been on the radio, tv, have written online pieces or have taken part somehow in our coverage of this campaign - and there's a few days to go. Not only do they live on. They've helped us tell - and sell -a story.
Back to briefing notes and to a challenge from the Welsh Affairs Editor to play a game of "guess the party from the outfit the candidates have chosen".
Game on.
A cordial relationship
- 27 Apr 07, 10:58 PM
You might have thought the appearance in court on serious charges of the brother in law of our Deputy First Minister in waiting would have sparked a full blown political crisis. But on the very same day Martin McGuinness鈥檚 brother in law Marvin Canning faced seven charges linked to the cross border kidnapping and assault of a man and a woman, my spies tell me Messrs McGuinness and Paisley were holding what some described as pleasant, cordial and businesslike meetings at Stormont with other politicians.
In a conversation with the new chair and vice chair of the Committee of the Centre, the Ulster Unionist Danny Kennedy and Alliance鈥檚 Naomi Long, there did not appear to be any evident tension between the First and Deputy First Minister in waiting. Indeed Ian Paisley talked about what 鈥渨e鈥 intend to do, apparently acknowledging the joint nature of their office.
Martin McGuinness had by this stage already made clear his unequivocal condemnation of the abduction and assault. He also said whoever was responsible should be made accountable through the courts. Marvin Canning has denied any connection with the alleged offences during police interviews.
While Messrs McGuinness and Paisley await the official birth of the new Executive, Scotland and Wales are about to elect their devolved governments. I鈥檝e just been talking to the DUP鈥檚 Gregory Campbell and Sinn Fein鈥檚 Daithi McKay for an Inside Politics programme which looks at the potential implications for Northern Ireland if the SNP makes headway in its quest for independence. You can hear that discussion on Inside Politics on Saturday on Radio Ulster at a quarter to one, and I鈥檝e written an accompanying article summarising the politicians' contrasting viewpoints. It should be published on the main website over the weekend.
Sinning and spinning
- 27 Apr 07, 02:56 PM
I've headed West but seeing as how you asked the story surrounding "the infamous Ruthin hustings" has been online for a while and was covered at lunchtime on radio bulletins.
For those of you who have no idea what I'm talking about here is
We're still trying to contact all the candidates who were there so we can check their recollection of what Darren Millar did, or did not, say. Call us fussy ... but one contact number we were given so we could confirm the story turned out to be for someone who passed away some weeks ago.
Reality checks
- 27 Apr 07, 12:55 PM
Back from Plaid Cymru leader Ieuan Wyn Jones' final keynote speech - or as my colleague Guto suggested it might be headlined, "Plaid leader leaves Ynys Mon shocker!" Mr Jones has his own battles to fight and has been reluctant to stray too far from home recently.
Not surprisingly Plaid and the Tories have swapped press release writers. The Tories believed the last ITV/NOP poll, Plaid said it didn't reflect what they were hearing on the doorsteps. This time round the disbelief is Mr Bourne's. And it's twice the size of course, because this time there are two polls to contend with - one by NOP, the other by Beaufort and they are remarkably similar.
Either way they've shoved us very nicely into the last week of the campaign.
If our posh graphics reflect these percentages - or anything like them - in a week's time then hats off to the pollsters. But I haven't seen all the figures. Those who've seen more than I have of the second NOP poll and who can therefore make far more sense of the figures are genuinely wondering to what extent it's comparable to the first.
Caution then. A reality check all round. But still a great 24 hours for those who keep words like weighting and methodology in their anorak pockets.
A half decent joke from Plaid Cymru's Adam Price this morning. Plaid, he said, had gone out on the campaign trail to share their 'elan, verve and infectious energy'. (No, not that bit). They'd been determined to start their conversation with the Welsh people early and had succeeded, "even if it's teenagers in Rhymney shouting at us 'Where's my free laptop then?'"
Ah but will they bother voting for you?
Googleganger
- 27 Apr 07, 09:55 AM
The Belfast Telegraph has introduced me to the concept of a Googleganger, by noting in their Insider column that if you put my name into the search engine, the first result is, apparently, the writer, director and star of a film called "Why I Hate Parties (But Pretend to Love Them). Insider notes that this is probably my job description. Since I didn't plant the story, one thing I wonder is why they were Googling me in the first place?
And there's more
- 26 Apr 07, 10:02 PM
Before you anoraks put your calculators away, a warning that you'll need it in the morning.
The Western Mail are splashing their own poll on the front page tomorrow. 'Corporal Jones' of Plaid Cymru will be more than happy.
Thank you for (more) statistics ...
- 26 Apr 07, 03:44 PM
Big rumours doing the rounds that tonight's ITV/NOP poll will not be welcome in Transport House - Welsh Labour's HQ or in the Tory camp in Penlline Road. But in Ty Gwynfor? Will Plaid eyes be smiling this time?
The lady is for turning
- 26 Apr 07, 01:29 PM
With commendable sagacity, Annabel Goldie forecast that the media will report her speech today as a strategic U-turn. She鈥檚 right. They will. Because it was.
Or rather it was an S-bend. Miss Goldie opened this election campaign by declaring that the Tories would no longer obsess about the Union.
Instead, they would focus upon 鈥渂read and butter issues鈥.
Wise observers reckoned that was because the issue of the constitution had laid the Tories low. Across Europe, parties of the Right tend to rely substantially on the patriotic vote. They are flag wavers.
Over recent decades, in Scotland, the Tories picked the wrong flag. They were seen, arguably unfairly, as an English party. Scotland wanted to see political hands clutching the Saltire.
Slowly, painfully slowly, the Tories have struggled back from utter collapse - a collapse hastened by their opposition to self-government.
Hence, their decision this time around to major on issues like affordable housing, families, crime and drugs. Not the Union.
David Cameron signalled a change with his speech at Gretna Green.
The clue was in the warm-up act. He was accompanied on that occasion by David Trimble, the former leader of the Ulster Unionists who has joined the Tories.
You do not field a prominent Unionist when you are planning to talk about affordable housing.
Today Annabel Goldie delivered a speech in Edinburgh billed as her 鈥淪tate of the Union鈥 address.
So what is the Union鈥檚 condition, according to Miss Goldie? Pretty parlous 鈥 but open to rescue.
And would Miss Goldie mount that rescue? Under Scotland鈥檚 system, a First Minister does not simply emerge.
To be appointed FM, you have first to carry a vote in Holyrood among MSPs.
It鈥檚 an iterative system 鈥 with repeated exhaustive ballots. To win, you need an overall majority of those voting.
Annabel Goldie says there is 鈥 and will be 鈥 a majority of Unionist supporters in Holyrood.
Would she then join a Unionist coalition? Or at least vote for a Unionist First Minister?
She says no 鈥 or rather she declined, repeatedly, to answer when quizzed by the wicked media (self included.)
Why so? Because the Tories say their policies aren鈥檛 for sale, they won鈥檛 do deals.
Because, I strongly suspect, the Tory faithful simply wouldn鈥檛 countenance the idea of their party propping up Labour or the LibDems.
After all, their core pitch is that the 鈥淟ib-Lab pact鈥, as they call it, has been useless.
If it came to the bit, do I think Annabel Goldie and her colleagues would vote for Alex Salmond? Of course not. I think they would do their sums 鈥 and work out how best to thwart the SNP, if possible.
But they can鈥檛 say so now because it runs counter to their strategy.
You see, they don鈥檛 face these questions when they stick to 鈥渂read and butter鈥.
Then, it鈥檚 quite reasonable to say that they would judge each issue as it arises and vote accordingly.
But voting for a First Minister is quite different. It鈥檚 fundamental, the starting point 鈥 and the elementary choice is likely to be between the leader of the largest party supporting the Union and the leader of the SNP.
By reverting to the issue of the Union, Annabel Goldie prompts the issue of where she would stand in that choice.
Postman's knock?
- 26 Apr 07, 10:58 AM
"Trust status has reached the end of its useful life".
You can always rely on David Melding - the 'two brains' of the Welsh Conservatives - to take detailed notes of what he hears. And last night his pencil, though worn down having spent many months writing the party's manifesto, was in his pocket.
He was at a set of hustings where representatives of all four main parties were grilled by a room full of health professionals. When the Health Minister in the last Assembly, Labour's Brian Gibbons, delivered the suggestion that the day of the health trust is over ... jaws, we're told by one of the audience, dropped.
What exactly did Dr Gibbons mean? Blue sky thinking or is he suggesting there are specific plans afoot to revamp Wales' Health Trusts? We'll ask him.
Before I head down to the Senedd a thank you to the quick-thinking and fleet-footed voter who rushed to the door when she heard a leaflet hit the mat. It was from the candidate who for the past four years has been the local Assembly Member.
I'll let the annoyed voter tell you the rest:
"The leaflet claimed that he himself had been to my house and that I had missed him. I opened the door to ask him why he had not even knocked only to discover that the leaflet had been posted by one of two gentlemen, neither of which was ..."
No names because let's face it, he won't be the only one carrying out what this annoyed voter called 'nothing but deception'.
Eyes down
- 25 Apr 07, 03:04 PM
If you haven't already spotted our election give it a go. Someone's already suggested we should come up with a box for party freebies. Tick 'em off as you're offered:
Number 3? Free kids brekkie
21? Key of the door (with 拢5000 thrown in)
42? Light bulb for you
34? Ask for more (than a free toothbrush)
Make sure Blaenau Gwent candidate Trish Law isn't sitting at your table or you won't get a look in. There may be an election campaign on but that hasn't got in the way of her regular Bingo nights in Cwmbran. And it obviously pays to mix business with pleasure. Two big wins in two weeks and a bumper win for her daughter I hear. Is the lady on a winning streak?
Try not to clean them out again though Trish. You'll be after their votes next week ...
For the record ...
- 25 Apr 07, 12:58 PM
I seem to be saying 'for the record' a lot at the moment so let me say it once again:
For the record there was no time to take a pee/ park the car legally/eat yesterday let alone get to a computer. It started very early, finished very late and no, there was no time for a visit to the pub (fy ffrind Bedd G!) You know that when you get a call from the Secretary of State's man venting the boss's anger before you've left the house in the morning that it's going to be that kind of day ... and it was.
Of course a story about the possiblity of any Labour/Plaid deal was going to ruffle feathers. That's why we did nothing about it until we had something worth saying - thanks team. But for the record (told you) we were right to cover the story, right to do it when we did and what's more, I'm happy we got the story right. There. Said my piece. Brilliant blogging all round yesterday. Sorry I missed it.
Sorry too that I got a parking ticket - where's the bus when you need it?
2 minutes to spare
- 25 Apr 07, 12:09 PM
Northern Ireland questions in the Commons trailed to a halt two minutes early today, meaning that Tony Blair had to spring into action earlier than he had expected.
The early finish came after a number of questions were dropped from the prepared list - the SDLP's Alasdair McDonnell wasn't on hand to ask a question about medical training, and the DUP's Sammy Wilson wasn't there to ask about provision for young people with disabilities. The UUP's Lady Hermon was there, but did not put a question on the list about Alzheimers treatment and the Tory MP Philip Hollobone didn't ask a question about the future size of the Northern Ireland Office.
The missing questions were compounded by missing MPs - the DUP team was much smaller than usual as many of their MPs are busy getting briefed on their new responsibilities at Stormont.
During Prime Minister's questions, the DUP's David Simpson did ask Tony Blair something. Not about Northern Ireland, though. He wanted to know why the government is spending 拢30 million on a new London academy to teach parents to recite nursery rhymes to their children.
So if you had two minutes to spare to ask Peter Hain and his ministers any question at all, what would it be?
Up with the larks
- 25 Apr 07, 11:19 AM
Come the revolution, wrote Denis Healey, we shall abolish teeth.
The former Chancellor, it seems, had persistent trouble with his molars. I sympathise. It is hard to think great thoughts while pestered with painful gnashers.
Should the day dawn, my personal favourite for abolition would be business breakfasts. The very concept is oxymoronic.
At breakfast, one should not do business. One should sit sullenly munching toast, preparing for the horrors ahead.
Conversation should be limited to the occasional grunt.
However, I dragged myself along to the SNP breakfast gig last Friday and today鈥檚 bash with the Chancellor.
Both were held in the middle of the night, starting some time around 0730.
Alex Salmond served scrambled eggs and smoked salmon (not personally, you understand.)
The Chancellor鈥檚 choice was croissants, fruit, cheese and a species of salami. Or, as we would call it in Dundee, biled ham.
Both were designed to impress us with the extent of business support for the various causes.
I bid one Brian Souter. I鈥檒l see your Souter 鈥 and raise you Tesco chairman David Reid.
Labour had more names and more big names. But their list was backing the Union 鈥 while the Nationalist list was backing the SNP directly.
You choose how to travel. You choose where to shop. You choose your domestic government in Scotland.
Which is where we鈥檙e at now. Choice.
The strategies of the two leading parties couldn鈥檛 be more different in informing that choice.
The SNP has been caution itself. Independence is for another day, referendum day.
It鈥檚 new model Alex Salmond 鈥 calm, unassertive. As if he would pick a fight with anyone, let alone London!
By contrast, the Labour campaign has veered between frustration and ferocity.
The ferocity comes in the attack on independence and SNP accounting.
Again today the Chancellor said that the Nationalists were deliberately disguising, for example, the reduced value of North Sea oil which affected their sums. (The SNP dissent.)
Privately, the frustration lies in the problem of persuading the electorate to focus solely on the devolved Scottish election at hand.
Labour canvassers talk of being greeted on doorsteps with complaints about Blair, Prescott, Blunkett, Brown and pensions etc etc.
One spoke of trying to break through a 鈥渨all of ignorance鈥.
Folk think they can vote SNP without consequences, without really changing anything.
They鈥檙e unsure about SNP policies, many apparently imagining that voting Nationalist means quitting the EU.
So, expect more, much more, in the same vein for the final week. Sweet assurance from the SNP. Vocal challenge from Labour. You choose.
Re-arranging the 'furniture'
- 24 Apr 07, 06:15 PM
So how鈥檚 the government getting on during this election? Not the Big One in Westminster 鈥 but the domestic version here in Scotland.
What do you mean, you thought the government was out on the hustings trying to hold on to seats?
I mean the permanent government. Her Majesty鈥檚 loyal civil service in the Scottish Executive
They鈥檝e been decidedly busy. Quietly running the country while their elected bosses are kept occupied in the minor matter of convincing the voters.
Oh, stop it, Brian. You鈥檝e been watching too many reruns of 鈥淵es, Minister鈥.
Absolutely seriously, the executive civil servants are in purdah - barred from influencing the election in any way. No news releases. No statements. No new ad campaigns.
However, that doesn鈥檛 mean they put their considerable brains in neutral. Scotland must be governed, domestically. That means the civil servants must prepare for whatever the electorate delivers.
Consequently, they have been busy - seriously, very busy - scrutinising the various parties鈥 policies. Assessing and costing them. Looking for early signs of cross-over which might facilitate coalition.
They are also readying themselves for the negotiations which will be needed. Of course, they prepare for all eventualities.
All parties are equal in official eyes. But, realistically, some options are more equal than others.
In 鈥99 and 鈥03, it was reasonable to prepare most assiduously for a Labour/LibDem coalition.
This time round, my guess would be that other combinations might be on the civil service cards.
Remember that, to govern, a politician has to be elected first minister by the new members of the Scottish Parliament. (Strictly, that election is to nominate a recommended candidate to the Palace: HM the Queen appoints.)
To achieve that status, the favoured candidate must be able to win more votes than the alternatives.
Note that鈥檚 not simply the biggest number of votes - you鈥檇 get that by leading the largest party.
The winner needs to get more votes than all the others put together.
It鈥檚 like musical chairs. If that outcome isn鈥檛 generated by the first vote in Parliament, then the bottom contender drops out - and the vote is held again, iteratively, until an overall winner emerges.
That means the winner needs to assemble a coalition, at least for that day - unless, of course, their own party has an overall majority by itself.
Think, finally, of this. If Holyrood fails to appoint a first minister within 28 days of the election, then Scotland has to go to the polls all over again. Fun, eh?
The hottest ticket in town
- 24 Apr 07, 06:05 PM
There are only 150 or so places in the public gallery overlooking the Stormont assembly chamber and normally there's not a sinner there, with the occasional exception of my Good Morning Ulster colleague Seamus McKee who likes to peer down on the politicians from a great height. But come May 8th could a spot in the gallery be the hottest ticket in town?
We know Tony and Bertie have booked their seats but the rumour mill has it that some senior US politicians could also be scrambling for space. An invitation list is still being drawn up but it's thought invitations may be extended to the former US President Bill Clinton and to all the US Special Envoys, from Senator George Mitchell to the current envoy Paula Dobriansky. There's also speculation that a US Congressional delegation which could include the veteran Senator Ted Kennedy will be invited. No invitations have yet been issued and it's unclear at this stage who exactly will be free to attend the ceremony.
Politics does 'showbiz'
- 23 Apr 07, 06:31 PM
Does celebrity matter? Obviously, it does if you want a good table in a restaurant or crave to display your fascinating family on reality TV.
But does it matter in politics? Does it tick your box when it comes to deciding which party to support?
I guess it must 鈥 because the parties expend such energy in attracting star backing.
Today we had Labour trumpeting a string of soccer stars who are backing the Union (against the option of independence.)
And we had the SNP promoting a list of 100 business people who are supporting Nationalism.
Me, I鈥檝e never quite absorbed the concept. Perhaps it鈥檚 my innate professional scepticism.
Perhaps it鈥檚 a memory of the time one particular party were punting a big-name celebrity backer.
I was enjoined, nay entreated, to interview said celeb. Grumbling, I did so 鈥 only for the celeb to depart utterly from the party line round about question three.
One up for the forces of virtue, I reckon.
But if party politics is a brand, I suppose it needs its celebrity advertisers. It carries risks, though.
That rock band who look so cool - (is that still the right word?) - on stage can sound mumbling and incoherent if asked to comment on education policy.
That business leader whose word is law in the boardroom can sound remarkably na茂ve when confronted with the need to persuade voters rather than order them into line.
There are exceptions, of course. Still, I think I prefer the more basic approach.
Decide whose policies you like most 鈥 and vote for them.
Watch out Translink
- 23 Apr 07, 06:01 PM
Stormont was fairly quiet today, with Sinn Fein grabbing the headlines by confirming former IRA prisoner Martina Anderson as one of their three nominees to the Policing Board. Her fellow Foyle MLA, the DUP's Willie Hay, watched the announcement from the Great Hall balcony, but there's still no confirmation that he will be the Speaker.
Whilst all eyes will be on the new Executive ministers, the local parties are still sorting out their "SPADs", the Special Advisors who will work behind the scenes. Aidan McAteer and Dara O'Hagan are two of Sinn Fein's three at the OFMDFM, where it looks like their DUP counterparts will be Timothy Johnston and Emma Little. The SDLP's Brian Barrington will make a return appearance with their only minister Margaret Ritchie.
Some MLAs are already plotting what the Stormont committees they will sit on might get their teeth into. One politician who expects to be on the new Public Accounts Committee predicts its first probe will look at Translink and the relaying of the Belfast to Bangor railway line. Back in March an Audit Office report said "serious management deficiencies" led to the 2001 project costing 拢34m - twice the original budget - and running nine months late.
On the bus(es)
- 23 Apr 07, 10:00 AM
A weekend on the road.
Over to South Wales West on Saturday to escape for the day and to see a man who'd been out all morning on the stump on behalf of his lot.
A chat about doorstep canvassing techniques ("Helps if your candidate's a looker") turns into one of those spot-the-surprise-result-on-the-night sessions.
I've already had one old head on young(ish) shoulders warning us to keep more than one eye on Montgomeryshire and another suggesting that Islwyn 'could be interesting'. Why? Vocal independent candidate, local council issues: always a heady mix.
Up to Colwyn Bay yesterday. I'm sitting on the 91热爆 bus opposite Specsavers as I write and if you listen very, very hard you can hear the sound of Conservatives doing sums. They reckon they can win 5 seats in North Wales. 5?
Come on, what's on the list? Ah well, they were talking about 5 on a good night. How good? Clwyd West, Aberconwy, Delyn, Vale of Clwyd and ... Ynys Mon. They admit the last one's a bit of mischief-making but insist they're not joking about unseating Ann Jones. They'll have quite a job.
A really good night for the Tories would be a bad, sad one for Brynle Williams. He's first on the Conservative list in North Wales and admits he's 'sick with desire' (doesn't translate that well ... ) to get back into Cardiff Bay. He's no fool either. The party may have wanted me "just for my name" he says. It was no certainly suprise when the Tories came knocking on the door of the straight-talking fuel campaigner who took on the Labour government and gave Tony Blair some sleepless nights.
"I'm still not really like other AMS - you know me", Brynle is fond of saying but he reckons he's earned his spurs. Will he get back in? Not if Ann Jones has anything to worry about.
To-ge-ther.
- 20 Apr 07, 08:45 PM
Do you remember that tv ad that was on years ago? A couple sit on a sofa and are asked something like where they want to be in a few years' time. I can't remember what the ad was selling but the punchline has stayed with me.
He puts his arm around her shoulders and says: "To-ge-ther!"
It just came to mind today as Gordon Brown and Rhodri Morgan sat squeezed next to each other on a children's bench in a school playground. The word "together" cropped up in almost every other sentence: working together, tackling child poverty together, working together with Westminster to make the most of the devolution dividend.
In the ad the wife is dreaming about going it alone and leaving him on the sofa to sort out the mortgage and the maths. So there, I suppose, the comparison ends.
The Chancellor and First Minister were given a grilling by the school council. "What's it like feeling important?" You don't, said Rhodri Morgan, you get on with it and he did. Getting on with children, pensioners, protesters comes naturally to him. Gordon Brown finds it tough.
He shook hands rather formally with 6 year olds. They talked about the mandarin flavoured ice lollies they sold for 20p in the new healthy school tuck-shop. He asked them how much profit they made on each one. They talked about the school council. He asked what their budget was.
Mr Brown was in one of Wales' most affluent constituencies to deliver a messge that his party's serious about eradicating child poverty. "People like seeing me signing cheques" he said - and he did, a giant cheque made out to the children of Wales. All the parties are pulling 'together' on this one but they all know that Gordon Brown will have to sign much, much bigger cheques if that target date isn't at best a vain hope, at worse a stunt long forgotten by the time it comes around.
He really didn't look that comfortable. Rhodri Morgan was very much at ease. And I'll be wondering what that ad was selling all weekend.
Doing the sums
- 20 Apr 07, 06:33 PM
You know when you鈥檝e been Wendied. I recall a lunch with Wendy Alexander (erstwhile Scottish Cabinet Minister.)
She proceeded to cover the paper tablecloth in a myriad of figures and little notes as she expounded her views to me on life, the universe and the Barnett formula.
Today she was flying in top gear as she counter-briefed re the SNP鈥檚 publication of a pamphlet on the Scottish economy.
鈥淔undamentally dishonest鈥. 鈥淐hicanery鈥. 鈥淭hey just can鈥檛 be allowed to get away with this.鈥
She wasn鈥檛 alone. Jack McConnell, seeking to be returned as first minister, weighed in.
Her brother Douglas, the Scottish Secretary, believes the SNP are essentially weak on finance.
Behind and above it all, of course, the Chancellor. Gordon Brown believes Labour has uncovered the soft underbelly of the Nationalist campaign.
So what鈥檚 it all about? The Nationalist document sets a growth target for Scotland for the first time, aiming to match UK ambitions over a four-year term (presently 2.5 to 3%) 鈥 but promising to do better under subsequent independence.
The pamphlet then restates the aim of finding around 拢3bn from efficiency savings at the executive, diverting this to tax cuts and frontline spending.
It also restates the policy of replacing the council tax with a 3p tax on earned income. You鈥檇 pay 3p wherever you stay.
So here are the claims and counter-claims. Labour says Scotland is in deficit, even taking North Sea oil into account and even on the SNP鈥檚 own sums.
That鈥檚 because they鈥檝e factored new Budget estimates for oil into the SNP鈥檚 previously published calculations.
The SNP say they鈥檒l update their figures in July - when new spending data is published and they receive further analysis of the GERS exercise. (Nothing to do with Ibrox: it stands for Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland.)
Labour says that鈥檚 unacceptable - the Nationalists want the Barnett Formula consequentials for Scotland but also want the oil money.
The SNP say they鈥檙e led by the timetable for the publication of spending statistics. They say further that oil revenues are set to rise. Maybe so, say Labour, but not as much as anticipated - and it won鈥檛 last.
Secondly, Labour says the Nationalists are in denial over the true state of Scottish spending and revenue.
They say Scotland gains substantially from the UK - the 鈥淯nion dividend鈥. Nationalists say Labour overstates the gains and underestimates Scottish wealth.
To micro matters. Labour says the SNP plans for a 3p fixed rate Local Income Tax would be disastrous. They would penalise earned income and act as a deterrent to employment.
They wouldn鈥檛 cover income from savings or share dividends.
The SNP says that pensioners would gain (they generally don鈥檛 pay income tax) 鈥 and that, on average, only the top tenth of earners would lose out. (Mark that word 鈥渁verage鈥, though. It implies there would be at least some losers further down the ranks.)
Labour says that double income couples would, potentially, suffer from this change. The SNP says only if they鈥檙e earning, jointly, more than 拢66,000.
But that鈥檚 based on a couple living in a Band F property which currently attracts a relatively high council tax.
The jump-off point would be lower for those in lower bands. The SNP insists most would still gain.
And there鈥檚 more. Under independence, say Labour, what would be the interest rate, monetary and fiscal policies. When and how would Scotland join the Euro?
Nationalists say they鈥檇 retain sterling post-independence until Scotland was ready to join the single European currency.
In any case, they say, this election is primarily about a programme for devolved government.
Fine, say Labour, but you鈥檇 agitate for independence from day one. These are legitimate questions, insist Labour鈥︹
Just thought you鈥檇 like to know. Wish I鈥檇 kept that tablecloth. Maybe I could have sold it on ebay.
No Dawn for new board
- 20 Apr 07, 05:20 PM
Have just recorded this weekend's Inside Politics. The PUP's Dawn Purvis told me, before we got going, that she isn't applying to go back on the Policing Board as an independent. She says she has enough to do with her current role as party leader and East Belfast MLA. Questioned about the latest court case about alleged UVF intelligence gathering she repeats that noone is under threat. There's some speculation that the UVF might announce its response to the IRA's initiatives before May 8th, but Dawn doesn't give much away.
Also on the show is the first Green MLA, Brian Wilson. He's interesting on the topics of the rural housing ban PPS14 and the need for transparency in the relationship between party donors and the newly selected Executive ministers. Rather than spell out all the detail here I've penned an article for the main 91热爆 NI website which should be appearing fairly soon.
Raising a voice
- 20 Apr 07, 03:06 PM
John Benson, the veteran and vocal Allied Steel and Wire Pension campaigner, was waiting for Gordon Brown when he got to Ysgol Llanishen Fach this lunchtime.
Who told him when and where to find the Chancellor?
Hands up Conservatives and Lib Dems.
The Chancellor - who got a chance to insist that this government has done more to protect workers when their companies go bust than any other - left via the lower gates, not wanting to hear the calls of "disgrace" and "gutless liar" on his way home too.
Ruffling feathers
- 20 Apr 07, 11:47 AM
If you're following my colleague Vaughan Roderick's blog then you'll know that he's opened up a virtual betting shop. A painless way to lose a virtual fortune.
If you fancy your chances he's offering these odds on Aberconwy:
Plaid Cymru: 6-4
Conservaties: 7-4
Labour: 7-4
Lib Dems: 25-1
About right? One of Llandudno's seagulls put a punt on the Tory yesterday I hear, just after he'd finished giving an interview on how his party's doing. Does that change the odds in his favour?
Odds on Ceredigion to appear soon. If you can offer him any tips, do.
Birds doing the Tory leader, Nick Bourne, no favours today either. In his weekly column in Golwg Mr Bourne's old adversary - former Welsh leader Rod Richards - has this to say:
"Nick Bourne is a cuckoo in the Tory nest ... He lays his eggs in the Green
Party's nest, in Plaid Cymru's nest and indeed anywhere where
somebody will care for his chicks. He'd make his nest in any home going.
Like every cuckoo, Bourne has questions to answer".
He would say that, wouldn't he but pretty strong stuff two weeks before an election.
Off to see Gordon Brown who's swooping into Cardiff North.
Oh no we didn't.
- 19 Apr 07, 11:34 PM
That, at least, is Labour's line tonight.
No they didn't tell Jonathan Austin to say that Labour would not go into coalition with anyone after May 3rd. "This is not Labour's position".
They're going for a majority and will only rule out going into coalition with the Conservatives.
Cock-up then?
No doubt Dafydd Wigley will be checking that with Jonathan Austin on Radio Cymru's Dau o'r Bae tomorrow. And Jonathan Austin can return the favour and point to Ieuan Wyn Jones' interview tonight on Dragon's Eye. He was asked whether, in principle, he would have Conservative Ministers in a Plaid led cabinet? Yes, he would.
Now we know.
Deal or no deal?
- 19 Apr 07, 09:58 PM
I was about to blog about three conversations with three old heads in this election ... but you'll be glad to know that a story has come up.
And those of you who jump up and protest bitterly every time I mention the word coalition will be even happier.
On tonight's Pawb a'i Farn - the Welsh language election debate programme - Labour's Jonathan Austin, candidate in Ynys Mon, was on the panel. And when asked about possible future coalitions made it clear that Labour wouldn't consider going into a coalition with any party after May 3rd.
No deals, no coalition.
The presenter, Dewi Llwyd, tells me he had a quick chat with JA after the recording was over. Had he meant to say what he did so unequivocally? Yes he had. He'd known there was a question on future deals being asked on tonight's programme and had called HQ in Cardiff to ask what his line should be. He was told to say that Labour will not go into coalition with anyone after the election.
Fellow panelist, Plaid Cymru's Dafydd Wigley, tackled Jonathan Austin after the programme was over and suggested he'd stuck his head above the parapet a bit. Not at all, came the response - the line came from Cardiff.
More to come ...
The minister that never was
- 19 Apr 07, 05:33 PM
On Radio Ulster's Evening Extra my colleague Martina Purdy has just reported that the North Down MLA Alan McFarland turned down the chance to be Health Minister in the incoming executive. Apparently his reasoning was that his leader Sir Reg Empey should not be taking the other UUP ministerial job, at Employment and Learning, but should be concentrating on trying to rebuild the party. With no meeting of minds on this point, Sir Reg withdrew his offer and asked the South Belfast MLA Michael McGimpsey to take the health portfolio. That surprised many who believed Mr McGimpsey's star was on the wane after his failure to hold the UU Westminster seat in South Belfast.
Sir Reg and the North Down tank commander have crossed swords before. Alan McFarland beat Sir Reg to the UUP nomination as Westminster candidate for North Down only to be subsequently beaten by Bob McCartney. Then, after David Trimble resigned, he ran Sir Reg close for the leadership, running on a moderate ticket clearly associated with the North Down MP Lady Sylvia Hermon. Now Sir Reg has to contend with him on the back benches.
Some party colleagues can't understand it. One told me that if you aren't going to be party leader then surely being a minister has to be the pinnacle of your ambitions - so why didn't Alan take the offer? But anyone who peruses the transcripts of Stormont Preparation for Government Committee proceedings knows Mr McFarland is a man of forthright views - not only did he berate political journalists in general, he also once suggested that members of the public should not have direct access to devolved ministers. Instead, he suggested, MLAs should act as "the gatekeepers". For now, the North Down MLA won't need a gatekeeper although a UUP source tells me the party may well match the DUP in rotating its ministers after 2 years.
On a not entirely related note, why hasn't the DUP's Willie Hay been confirmed as the future Speaker? Maybe the two main parties are just spacing out their announcements or maybe the DUP isn't enamoured of an alleged Sinn Fein suggestion that Mr Hay could take the job for two years to be followed by Francie Molloy for the next two years.
Vote early, vote often
- 19 Apr 07, 01:01 PM
So I got my polling card today. Actually, I got two of them. Both helpfully note: 鈥淧lease check where you vote. It may have changed.鈥 It may indeed.
According to my polling card Mark One, I am entitled to vote in the West Dunbartonshire council elections.
Polling card Mark Two correctly notes that I am, instead, a council tax payer in East Dunbartonshire. It is, in short, a blunder.
Let me explain. My house is in Bearsden. In East Dunbartonshire. From the upper floor, you can see Bearsden Cross.
Nevertheless, boundary lines place me in the Clydebank and Milngavie constituency. (The boundary runs down my road.)
Polling for the constituency of C&M is administered by West Dunbartonshire Council. (Pay attention at the back.)
West Dunbartonshire duly issued polling cards to their remote Bearsden subjects. Snag is their computer (it鈥檚 bound to take the rap) assumed that everyone in C&M Parliamentary constituency also lives in West Dunbartonshire.
They don鈥檛 - as poll card Mark Two acknowledges.
This notes, in small lettering, that it 鈥渞eplaces the poll card previously issued.鈥 Vote early, vote often, say I. (I know, I know, the vigilant officers at the polling station will spot the problem. It was, for the avoidance of doubt, a lame joke.)
More seriously, does this guddle portend further trouble on the night?
Already, some are querying whether the electronic count - for both Holyrood and council elections - will go well. Won鈥檛 defeated candidates seize upon these doubts to demand manual recounts?
Others are asking whether it is a particularly smart idea to expect the voters to deal with a new Single Transferable Voting system for councils - on the same day as they deploy a different system for Holyrood?
Those who favour the joint ballot say it helps boost turnout and reduces voter fatigue. Those who are agin say it will be a hideous mess.
PS: When I鈥檓 buying stuff in a shop and I enter my G61 postcode, why oh why does the blasted computer insist on placing my home in 鈥淟anarkshire鈥?
Is it because the UK system is only able to cope with cities and counties and can鈥檛 accommodate Scotland鈥檚 single tier set-up? Harrumph!
Election Fever?
- 19 Apr 07, 07:27 AM
On my way in this morning, scanning front gardens as I went, I spotted:
Conservative posters: 5
Plaid Cymru posters: 4
Save Insole Court (community centre) posters: 6
By the way to those of you who are getting in touch and asking who your candidates are and where they stand on this issue and that, take a look at the issues and constituency guides on this link
Hope they're useful.
Paddy Paradesdown
- 18 Apr 07, 03:17 PM
Peter Hain is currently giving evidence to the House of Commons NI Affairs Committee on the latest developments here. The Secretary of State used the occasion to confirm the appointment of the former Liberal Democrat leader Lord Ashdown as the new chair of a review into parading.
As a former Marine Commando, Paddy Ashdown has a bit of prior history when it comes to marching - he led a company of soldiers who arrested the former SDLP leader John Hume during a civil rights demonstration.
The new review, promised at St Andrews, holds out the possibility of ending the stand off between the Orange Order and the Parades Commission and, maybe, further easing tensions on the ground.
Although Lord Ashdown's name is the one guaranteed to capture the headlines, there are other interesting characters on his review team, including the Rev. Mervyn Gibson, formerly of the Loyalist Commission and Sean Murray of the Springfield Residents Action Group. Although the government supplied biographical notes don't mention it Sean "Spike" Murray was well known to have been a senior member of the IRA in West Belfast. So could this help guarantee that the new review will crack the parading nut?
Furniture Removals
- 18 Apr 07, 03:13 PM
Blogging silence over.
The people who understand these things tell me my furniture has fallen down, which means posting for you and me has been a bit like wading through election leaflets - a lot of pain and bar charts for little gain and enlightenment.
The information you'd usually see to the side of this post - how to comment, lists of posts etc - is still way down at the bottom of the page but if you scroll down, you'll find it is there and in some sort of working order.
So is it true that you traditional Labour voters out there are too embarrassed to tell your friends that you may stick with Labour this time round - a bit like the "shy Tories" when Mrs Thatcher was on her way out? But that when it comes to it and you squeeze into that voting booth on May 3rd you'll vote Labour on the Q.T. - a bit like the Tories did when John Major was on his way in? Opinion polls predicted a hung parliament in 1992 but John Major scraped a workable majority.
I'm not suggesting Rhodri Morgan reaches the dizzy heights of a majority of any kind but I do wonder just how many "shy Labour voters" we have in Wales.
And I'm not the only one to wonder.
Special Advisers - or SPADs - do what it says on the tin. They advise and like us, they'll be doing the maths too. What would it mean if Labour decided to plough on and form a minority government? IF they scrape 25 seats or even more could they face all that whipping of AMs to turn up to vote, not to mention the constant deal-making? Mind you, it's only a few days a week they might be thinking ...
Might they prefer that thought to a messy coalition and an even messier divvying up of cabinet posts? How little would the Lib Dems accept this time? Economic Development's not likely to be up for grabs after all. And Culture again? Surely not.
Then again the maths - and your votes - may push Labour under 25 seats and to that 'what if' territory where even the Lib Dems couldn't save them. We're still wondering what happens then. SPADs? I can't believe there are no plans on the drawing board?
Meanwhile some candidates were taking it a bit easier than they might have done over the weekend. When asked on Sunday evening (before the record button was pressed on the 91热爆's debate programme) what he'd been up to that afternoon, Conservative candidate Jonathan Morgan admitted he'd been cooking up a barbie for his in-laws. A sign Cardiff North is in the bag? And Jonathan Austin, Labour candidate in Ynys Mon certainly spent Saturday in ... Amlwch? Holyhead? ... No, in Cardiff. Leaving the door ajar for another candidate perhaps? Surely not.
Knock if you dare
- 18 Apr 07, 02:56 PM
For political canvassers, trudging round the streets, life used to be relatively straightforward. Tough on the shoe leather, certainly. Rough on the voice (and, for some, the conscience.)
But, in reality, there was only one strict rule. Don鈥檛 disturb a household during 鈥淐oronation Street鈥 or when there鈥檚 a big football match on the telly.
But what do they do now? There鈥檚 football on the telly all the time. 鈥淕ood evening, sir, I hope you can spare a few moments to discuss our new policy on ferret taming.鈥
鈥淐an you come back later, lad, it鈥檚 Tayport versus Downfield in the Eastern Junior League. It鈥檚 the decider.鈥
Or the soaps. These days our gallant canvassers set out with a manifesto, a pencil - and a copy of the Radio Times.
鈥淪kip that one, Bert, they鈥檒l be watching River City.鈥
鈥淕ive it half an hour, it鈥檚 the rerun of Eastenders.鈥
So, more and more, parties are turning to phone canvassing, pestering the voters at all hours.
Plus they try to target their messages. No more the 50-second shout on the doorstep, bawling out your policy on council tax before the door slams in your face.
Find out the voter鈥檚 interests and obsessions first - then send them a targeted leaflet.
In these Holyrood elections, all parties are saying that the number of undecided voters is substantial - greater than before.
One political strategist suggested to me that women, in particular, had yet to be convinced. That was, it was argued, because women were more inclined to weigh the detail of policies in the balance.
No surprise, therefore, that both the Liberal Democrats and Labour are majoring on family issues today - issues that are, by custom and repute, designed to appeal to women.
The LibDems, for example, believe that such sectoral campaigning can give them the edge in a tight contest where every vote counts. Look for the others doing the same.
Still on the LibDems, they do seem adamant that they won鈥檛 concede a referendum on independence - even a multi-option one.
Three reasons for this. Firstly, they don鈥檛 want independence. They鈥檙e against it. Secondly, appearing to give ground to the SNP now would cut the feet from their candidates in Gordon and elsewhere. Thirdly, their MPs are virulently against the idea - and have been making that known.
Still doesn鈥檛 rule out the idea, entirely. It鈥檚 still about momentum. Privately, senior LibDems accept that if the SNP are the largest party, they would have a moral claim to a share in government.
It would seem perverse to deny that prospect. Right now, though, they鈥檙e challenging the SNP to dump the referendum. If it comes to it, wonder who鈥檒l blink first.
Gerry's tease
- 17 Apr 07, 05:47 PM
Interesting in which he sketches in some of the background to his historic meeting with Ian Paisley on March 26th. He talks about rejecting Peter Hain's attempts to broker an extended Easter holiday for the new Executive to facilitate the DUP's doubters.
The Sinn Fein president also teases his readers on the topic of what kind of contacts with the DUP preceded the meeting in the Stormont members' dining room. During the weekend prior to the meeting, when we have reported proxy talks took place inside Stormont Castle, Gerry Adams writes "it's too close to the events to detail this part of the negotiations at this time. Suffice to say, good work was done. Particularly by Martin McGuinness". Elsewhere he again draws a veil over the proceedings, noting "the process of peacemaking is just like that. An injudicious revelation here or there can cause more trouble than its worth."
So were the last minute contacts really "proxy" talks? And whose blushes is Gerry sparing? There were, of course, stories of contacts between the two sides going back as far as the Leeds castle talks of 2004, but these rumours were never substantiated. What will the history books record?
Should they, shouldn鈥檛 they?
- 17 Apr 07, 05:27 PM
Isn鈥檛 Alex Salmond going out of his way to be pleasant to Nicol Stephen. In debates, he鈥檚 deferred to him regularly. 鈥淎s Nicol said鈥.鈥 鈥淧icking up Nicol鈥檚 point鈥︹ One would almost think he hopes to share power with him.
Certainly, the SNP and the Liberal Democrats meet at many points. Low business taxation for economic growth, community policing and sentencing. They both want a Local Income Tax (although I think one or two senior LibDems harbour considerable doubts.)
Still, though, that big snag. The SNP demands a referendum on independence within a four-year term as a core element in any partnership agreement.
The LibDems say no - they won鈥檛 facilitate such a move if the pro-independence parties have failed to win a Parliamentary majority.
Stalemate? Not entirely. Could the issue be kept outwith the partnership agreement - as happened to student fees in 1999 and PR for local government in 2003?
In my view, no. For the SNP, this is their reason for existing, not a policy option. Equally, the Liberal Democrats believe that repealing the Act of Union is a little more fundamental than any manifesto dispute.
So could there be a multi-option referendum? Voters would be asked to choose between the present set-up, independence - and a Parliament with more powers.
When new model Alex Salmond is at his most accommodating, he hints that he might be prepared to concede this in negotiations - while his substantial preference would be for a straight vote on independence.
So, could this tempt the Lib Dems? After all, they regularly point out that Devolution Plus, a Parliament with more clout, is apparently the favoured option of voters in polls.
It might, it might. But they might also glance at a study by the Scottish Council for Social Research. In their Social Attitudes Survey, they asked about independence v devolution - but alongside attitudes to extra powers.
They found crossover which might alter the picture.
Their survey suggests that 29 per cent back independence - AND want more powers; 27% either support devolution but don鈥檛 want greater powers OR don鈥檛 want Holyrood at all; only 24 % support devolution AND want greater powers.
Depends how you count the outcome in any referendum, I suppose. First past the post? Independence wins. Single Transferable Vote? More powers might come through.
Either way, this survey might help to explain the continuing Lib Dem reluctance to countenance a referendum.
Elections change things, though. Politics is about momentum.If the SNP are palpably the winners - the largest party, for example - then it would be harder still for the Lib Dems to say no.
Using all his talents
- 17 Apr 07, 11:05 AM
Just watched pictures of David Cameron welcoming David Trimble on board to the Conservative party. Mr Cameron dodged questions about a front bench job for Lord Trimble, saying only that he now had a growing number of talents at his disposal and he would ensure his party used all those talents. The former Ulster Unionist leader indicated his intention to continue to discuss the UK's constitutional settlement, by attacking the SNP's pursuit of independence as very dangerous. It will be interesting to watch, for example, the debate between Lord Trimble, who believes all MPs should be able to vote on all matters, and those Tories who want Scottish MPs banned from voting on English issues. Earlier on Good Morning Ulster Lord Trimble also criticised the dual mandate which continues to allow DUP and SDLP MPs to sit in the Stormont Assembly. So would Lord Trimble like a particular role on constitutional affairs, or legal matters or does the former Nobel prize winner wish to range further afield in terms of foreign affairs?
Cock-up or conspiracy?
- 16 Apr 07, 05:49 PM
I was speaking recently to a journalist who went over to the Dark Side. (He became a Government spin doctor.) As a reporter, he was forever seeking to uncover conspiracies, constantly alert to cunning plans.
In Government, he told me, he had learned that pretty well everything was the result of some cock-up or other.
Well, certainly, most Ministers of my acquaintance are wrapped in a miasma of honourable uncertainty most of the time: unsure what, precisely, is the right course to follow. (That鈥檚 not because they鈥檙e thick but because government is tough.)
I think we can discern cock-up at the core of the controversy over the Scottish TUC General Council鈥檚 vote on whether to back the Labour Party in the current Holyrood election.
Strictly, the debate was over whether to intervene in the election at all by issuing a statement.
Apparently, that motion was only carried by a single vote - with Unison declining to support it.
Somewhat embarrassing, to say the least. Entirely understandably, much is being made of this by the Scottish National Party and others, including the SSP and Solidarity.
The Scottish trades unions are currently in Congress in Glasgow. From there, I鈥檓 told how this came about. I鈥檓 reminded that the STUC is autonomous - despite the fact that the unions created the Labour Party in the first place.
There are unions in the STUC who are affiliated to Labour and unions who aren鈥檛.
It鈥檚 claimed that led to the trouble. Some disliked the idea of a motion backing Labour, fearing it would inevitably divide the STUC. On that basis, they opposed the suggested endorsement - or abstained.
I鈥檓 told that a 鈥渕assaged鈥 version is now being prepared for a vote at the congress on Wednesday. It praises Labour but stresses the need for the STUC to engage with all parties. It encourages folk to vote.
The object, apparently, had been to avoid a divisive issue which might embarrass Labour. Nae luck, eh?
Probably ...
- 16 Apr 07, 02:50 PM
Rhodri Morgan has just left the building, though not before telling Richard Evans on his Radio Wales phone in programme that he would "probably" have voted against the invasion of Iraq had he been an MP. A knife-edge decision, certainly but he would "probably" have voted no.
Now tell me if I'm wrong but that sounds to me a like a very long way from saying - as he famously did on Question Time - that he has no opinion on whether we should have invaded Iraq or not.
As he left the studio I asked whether he accepted that he'd made a significant shift in his position? No, he didn't. Yes he'd said he'd "probably" have voted against the invasion without a second UN resolution but he still insisted it's impossible to put yourself in the position of those MPs who did have a vote.
He's talking about people like his wife, Julie, MP for Cardiff North and Kevin Brennan, MP for Cardiff West. They voted against the invasion and they, said Mr Morgan, are the people who think most like him.
He didn't stop walking as he talked but must be wondering about the power of that word - "probably" - and whether you l think he's used it to good effect today or not.
Back in the basement
- 16 Apr 07, 02:36 PM
After a fortnight mowing the lawn, trimming the hedge and attending assorted children's parties, I'm back in the Stormont basement, surveying the brand new world of our executive in waiting.
Things always feel a bit disjointed on your first day back in the office, but the break has served to heighten my sense of how much has changed since the Paisley Adams deal.
The Doc was on the steps of Stormont this morning confirming his ministerial team. He said his ministers wouldn't take questions on their departmental matters until 8th May. Peter Robinson and Arlene Foster quipped that they would "never, never" take questions, but their leader predicted the media would squeeze them dry.
This self denying ordinance means we weren't able to ask Arlene Foster, for example, what she intends to do about PPS 14. An hour or so later I was back on the Stormont steps, chatting to the Green MLA Brian Wilson, who is worried the executive will drop the restriction on new rural housing introduced by the direct rulers.
The DUP read out a long list of ministers, committee chairs, policing board reps and so on. One name conspicuous by its absence was that of the Foyle MLA Willie Hay. Freeing Willie from the political fray would make sense if he is to become Eileen Bell's replacement as Assembly Speaker, something I gather the redoubtable Ms Purdy reported on during my Easter recess.
Taxing issues
- 16 Apr 07, 07:12 AM
Bet the Tories wish they鈥檇 never scrapped the rates. Ever since that decision, driven by a particularly hideous property revaluation, local taxation has remained a highly contentious issue.
We had the Poll Tax (does anyone still remember that its Sunday name was the Community Charge?) Then the Council Tax, with properties ranked in bands.
Now two parties in this election are proposing to scrap that and bring in a Local Income Tax. The other two majors offer reforms to the council tax.
The issue again dominated a rather sparky debate on 91热爆 Scotland on Sunday, with the four major leaders taking part.
For fun, let鈥檚 pick a few holes in all the options. Broadly, every tax strikes a balance between equity and efficiency. Property taxes are, generally, efficient: it鈥檚 pretty hard to hide your house. Snag is - are they fair?
Well, mostly, wealthy folk live in big posh houses - but there isn鈥檛 a straight correlation.
Neither the Tories nor Labour are proclaiming the council tax as wonderful. In the debate, Annabel Goldie said the system had 鈥渨arts鈥. Invited to describe the council tax as fair, Jack McConnell called it 鈥渟table鈥.
The Tories are offering to halve council tax for pensioners over 65. Hole-picking time. By definition, such universality of approach benefits those who have cash as well as those who don鈥檛. Also, it does nothing for those below the age of 65.
Labour wants two extra bands at the bottom and top of the property ladder.
But Jack McConnell today was careful to stress that these changes would have limited scope.
My guess is that鈥檚 because any bigger change would demand a revaluation 鈥 and Labour is determined to avoid that at all costs.
Instead, Mr McConnell stresses the scheme to halve and eventually abolish water charges for pensioners over 65. That probably means uncoupling water costs still further from the local taxation to which they are nominally linked.
(That鈥檚 to avoid any risk of Whitehall clawing back the cash in benefit withdrawal.)
Then look at Local Income Tax. It鈥檚 already been pointed out that those who get their money from share dividends or savings will pay nothing locally under LIT.
Now there鈥檚 controversy over Council Tax Benefits. Would they be scrapped in Scotland under LIT - just as attendance allowance vanished when free personal care was brought in?
No, say the proponents, the SNP and the LibDems. Whitehall wouldn鈥檛 be so wicked or politically inept as to punish Scotland for a devolved decision.
But consider this. Its advocates insist that LIT is a much fairer system. Some 500,000 pensioners, for example, would pay nothing.
If it is so equitable, if it genuinely matches taxation to ability to pay, then why should the State continue to pay benefits?
Further, Council Tax benefit is worth some 拢381m annually in Scotland, paid to defray the imposition upon individuals.
The advocates of LIT want the Treasury to continue to pay this sum - but directly to the executive.
On what basis would that sum be calculated in future? Let us assume that the Treasury agreed to pay 拢381m in year one, to placate Scotland. What do they pay in 10 or 20 years when the Council Tax upon which the benefit was based has long been abolished - and there is no Barnett consequential to assist the calculation?
I鈥檓 very far from saying it鈥檚 impossible. Everything鈥檚 possible, with good political will. Further, there are very few people willing to act as cheerleaders for the Council Tax.
However, this is far from a simple choice. Isn鈥檛 electoral politics fun?
McGimpsey not McFarland
- 13 Apr 07, 05:21 PM
Just finished editing Inside Politics which will air tomorrow featuring an interview with the Ulster Unionist leader Sir Reg Empey. Chatting before the show, he says his party's phones are ringing off the hook, over issues such as health. The party now has appointed Michael McGimpsey as health minister, despite expectations health would go to Alan McFarland if Sir Reg opted for Employment and Learning. Alan McFarland has been rather silent on the issue. Check out Inside Politics tomorrow to hear what Sir Reg has to say about the matter.
Who cares?
- 13 Apr 07, 12:42 PM
At 11.39am a press release arrives from the Electoral Commission. They're offering grants of 拢200,000 over two years if you can come up with a winning idea on how to get the message across to 'marginalised groups' that to vote, you've got to register.
At 12.30pm a press release arrives from the South Wales Anarchists urging you to Vote Nobody on May 3rd. The Nobody spokesperson quote a committed Nobody supporter and a first time Nobody non-voter. "Nobody on the ballot represents me and ... Nobody ever will. Nobody cares ..."
Any ideas?
Incensed septuagenarians
- 13 Apr 07, 11:00 AM
On Monday the English Democrats will be meeting the media in Newport. Their candidates are campaigning on 'the injustice that was imposed on the people of Monmouthshire in 1974". In other words they were told they were Welsh and so the English Democrats say Monmouthians have been denied a basic human right for years.
And just to make sure they get as much coverage as possible a press release arrives:
"I have now been informed that an incensed local septuagenarian, who only discoverd that he was no longer English in 1990, will also be in attendance."
I wonder who told him?
Not likely to pick up many interviews for Radio Cymru there...
Not doing a Kinnock
- 12 Apr 07, 05:22 PM
鈥淎ll my life鈥, says Alex Salmond, 鈥淚 have been determined not to do a Neil Kinnock鈥.
This rather delphic comment was delivered to eager-snapping photographers as Mr Salmond stood, manifesto in hand and surrounded by a group of smiling candidates.
There are, I think, three interpretations. Firstly, the SNP leader doesn鈥檛 want to emulate Neil Kinnock who lost an election after, apparently, leading in the polls.
Secondly, Mr Salmond didn鈥檛 want to fall on his backside during a photo shoot. The bold Neil tumbled over while walking, purposefully, along a beach.
After the manifesto launch today, Mr Salmond was perched a little precariously on a grassy slope outside Napier University鈥檚 Craiglockart campus.
However, I go for the third interpretation. Alex Salmond is determined to avoid a Sheffield moment.
Come on, you must remember. Raucous noise, cheering supporters? Near the end of the 鈥92 campaign?
On stage comes NK, punching the air and yelling: 鈥淲ell, allllllll ri-ight!!鈥
Legend has it he lost in that moment of unconstrained exuberance. (I am inclined to distrust legend but no matter.)
Anyway, it was a different A. Salmond at the launch today. Deliberately more modest, more constrained.
In the poster leaflet going out to voters, he鈥檚 shown with but the faintest hint of a smile. Smirking is so last year.
He remembers 1999 when a powerful Labour onslaught completely destabilised the SNP campaign.
Now, Labour insist he鈥檚 avoiding a repetition of 鈥99 鈥 by avoiding the campaign. They say the SNP has held a minimum of news conferences to reduce exposure to questioning.
Whatever, the manifestos are now out in the open. Inter-party battle can commence, fully, on the ground and over the airwaves.
Expect close scrutiny of the SNP鈥檚 financial plans, their oil estimates and, especially, their plans to replace the council tax with a fixed rate 3p on income tax, standard and upper, to fund local services.
Alex Salmond says income tax is fairer and most people would gain 鈥 partly because, in office, he鈥檇 subsidise the new tax from the centre.
Critics say it鈥檚 a disincentive to employment and unfair because it doesn鈥檛 cover shares and savings.
All that and much more to come. For today, though, this was a confident and assured launch by Alex Salmond. Not too confident, though. Not these days.
"Bethan's a bit pi***d off."
- 12 Apr 07, 12:04 PM
Not my words. That's how the Prime Minister's right hand woman introduced me to him yesterday. And she was right, I was.
When you're not allowed on the same floor as Mr Blair, let alone in the same room, when you and your camerman are kept apart to make sure you can't throw any questions his way, when you're told repeatedly that if you ask anything about the burning issue of the day - the decision to let the marines and sailors held hostage in Iran to sell their story - you'll lose your right to ask two questions about Welsh issues later in the day ... you get the picture.
In the end Mr Blair gave his one answer on the Iran story when he wanted, how he wanted. I asked some more and put it like this - before he left Milford Haven the Prime Minister was feeling a bit like I did before he walked through the door.
For those of you who read Conservative Glyn Davies' blog, you'll know what I mean when I say that I got home and wished I had a garden full of Cortadillas (right Glyn?) so I could go out and hack to my heart's content. Sadly I live in Canton in Cardiff. Not good Cortadilla country. I sort of glared at the pots instead.
鈥楥an you hear me yet?鈥
- 11 Apr 07, 03:02 PM
It probably didn鈥檛 help that the sound system failed to function properly at the start of the Liberal Democrat manifesto launch.
Nicol Stephen discovered that it鈥檚 rather hard to look like a polished, prepared statesperson when you have to interrupt your opening remarks to tug at the microphone on your lapel.
Even the Gettysburg Address might have fallen a little flat had Lincoln been obliged to open by inquiring: 鈥淐an you hear me at the back?鈥
To be fair (that鈥檚 two days in a row, a new record), Mr Stephen rallied. Just in time to face a positive torrent of questions on his party鈥檚 plan to replace the council tax with a Local Income Tax.
Pretty much the same questions as he had earlier fielded during a rather deftly conducted interview on 鈥淕ood Morning Scotland鈥. (Come on, I used to present the programme: I鈥檓 allowed a cross-genre 91热爆 plug.)
What鈥檚 going on here? Why do the wicked media focus on one thing? Why don鈥檛 we ask about all the goodies in the manifesto? Because, dear reader, we know the difference between a news conference and a party election broadcast.
At the time, it seemed torrid. A huddle of hacks clustered around Tavish Scott afterwards to clarify a few points. (To be fair 鈥 twice in one blog! 鈥 such huddles are common at political events.)
Looking back over the tape, though, it seems rather less dramatic than it did at the time.
I think what鈥檚 happening is that, perhaps for the first time, the Local Income Tax is being subjected to serious scrutiny. People, voters, are totting up what it might cost them.
Nicol Stephen says that seventy per cent of Scots would pay less under LIT than under the Council Tax. Pensioners in particular would gain - because they generally don鈥檛 have much income.
To be clear, the present banded tax on property would be scrapped and, instead, you鈥檇 pay a local tax to your council on your earned income, at both the standard and upper rates.
Unlike the SNP, LibDems would allow councils to vary the rate within limits: they say the average would be 3.625%. The cash would be collected by HM Revenue and Customs.
The snags? This would mean that people in Scotland pay more on earned income than elsewhere in the UK. Critics say that would be a disincentive to investment and employment.
Nicol Stephen鈥檚 answer? Remember that the council tax is scrapped. This is a replacement tax, not an additional burden. He argues it is fairer.
Snag two. It鈥檚 only earned income. NOT income from savings or shares or capital gains.
Is that fair? Might not the rich man in a castle, living on share dividends, escape any contribution to local services?
The answer? Experts advise it would be too complex to extend the new local tax beyond earned income. Again, say the LibDems, no tax is perfect 鈥 but this one is fairer than the council tax which takes no direct account of ability to pay.
To be fair (a hat-trick!), Labour faced very tough questioning yesterday on its proposals for new upper and lower council tax bands - plus cutting water rates for the over 65s.
The lack of immediate detail only whetted the appetite of the wicked media. (See above)
With the SNP due to launch tomorrow - favouring a fixed 3p local income tax - this is developing into the early 鈥渂ig issue鈥 of the campaign.
For one night only
- 11 Apr 07, 09:38 AM
Off to listen to a "senior Labour politician" ... you know the kind of "senior politician" who may not be around for that much longer. And though he wasn't going to stay away from Wales during the campaign - gee no, why would he? -it looks as though this may be his one and only visit after all.
His choice or Rhodri's?
I may get a chance to ask him. He may even tell me which of the 'eleven 4 eleven' is so steeped in Welsh Labour ideology that he, the architect of New Labour, couldn't possibly adopt it.
I won't get a chance to blog until late tonight which means you have all day to tell me whether he's right to stay away.
And that makes it 10am - which means ladies and gentlemen, Tony Blair is in Wales.
99 red balloons
- 10 Apr 07, 06:51 PM
So to the free lap-top, free lightbulb and free toothbrush you can now add a free, crisp, 拢50.00 bond for your child. And a visit from a Mobile Mamma, which sounds a bit like a service Dad might be interested in.
There was far more to Labour's manifesto, a lot of detail - as one E-mailer put it, the sound of a shopping list for deals on policy agreements in the next Assembly perhaps?
The invited audience made it today, despite a Labour stunt failing to take off. Or maybe that should be taking off too early. Wayne David MP, along with a willing helper had planned to let off a stream of red balloons that would guide us all to New Tredegar.
They let go a bit early. The 99 red balloons had long gone by, even before we made it to Merthyr.
Tongiht Plaid's Director or Elections is calling on the party's 'friends' not to let up the fight too early. An Email tonight from 'Adam' - the man's on first name terms with his troops - calls on Plaid's supporters to cough up more time and money.
His battlecry? "The Labour vote is in meltdown. There are seats available for Plaid to win". Catchy.
How close arePlaid to their St David's Day 拢100,000 target by the way? The man who knows is having a quiet pint and will get back to me.
Time to be passionate
- 10 Apr 07, 05:13 PM
Among the tempting delights on offer in the Labour manifesto is the chance for more folk to meet the First Minister face to face - and 鈥渢alk about issues of concern to them鈥.
Scotland鈥檚 Cabinet would also become peripatetic - journeying out from Edinburgh at least once a year to meet in sundry parts of remote.
The aim? 鈥淭o engage with the local community, listen and act on their concerns.鈥
But, before that, Labour would like to see another act of engagement - they鈥檙e itching to get at the SNP. Or, more precisely, they鈥檙e keen to see the Nationalists pressed over their financial plans, both for local government and for the Scottish budget more generally.
They note that the SNP has held relatively few news conferences by contrast, say Labour, with Jack McConnell who has been regularly available to undergo ritual interrogation by the wicked media.
It鈥檚 a mirror image of earlier complaints - from the SNP - that Mr McConnell was seemingly unwilling to enter into debate with A. Salmond. Labour鈥檚 answer? The campaign proper is now under way. Let arithmetical battle commence.
To be fair (sorry and all that, but it鈥檚 habitual with me), the SNP have yet to launch their manifesto. LibDems tomorrow. Nationalists on Thursday. After that, the inter-party jousting can begin for real.
So, how about Labour鈥檚 launch? Well, it was, variously, passionate, intriguing and surreal. The passion? Jack McConnell promising to divert funding into education, obliging other departments to find efficiency savings to fund new initiatives.
The intriguing bit? Labour鈥檚 plans on the council tax - new upper and lower bands plus cuts in water charges for pensioners over 65.
Plainly, they felt they had to offer reform - but were also determined to steer clear of a full-scale revaluation of properties. (Last time there was a big revaluation row in Scotland, we ended up with the poll tax.)
Hence the 鈥 relative 鈥 caution and the lack of final detail.
And the surreal? Labour candidates were corralled in a neighbouring room for the manifesto launch. Every time their leader swatted away the wicked media (see above), they applauded joyously.
But the sound was delayed, leaving us with a bizarre echo like an action replay. Want to know why? Ask a teacher in one of Labour鈥檚 planned new science academies.
Independents' Day?
- 9 Apr 07, 09:02 PM
It's party time!
Tomorrow Welsh Labour plan to "hold a party" and launch their manifesto while they're at it. Transport House reckons the launches so far have been far too straight and boring.
What can they be talking about?
Plaid: very posh lecterns, no questions
Tories: David Cameron, directions to North Ophall (Central Office not that familiar with North Wales)
Lib Dems: no Welsh leader, a few too many questions
Let's see what Labour election pledges are made of as - at last - we get to hear what's on offer beyond keeping free bus passes, keeping free prescriptions etc etc
One question from me.
John Marek's leaflet distributed to the people of Wrexham proclaims he is "Your Independent Candidate for Wrexham'. His contact details are "67 Regent Street, Wrexham, LL11 1PG". The telephone number is 01978 314085.
Look at Mr Marek's website and the contact details are the same.
So?
If you visit the Forward Wales website - the party that Mr Marek is NOT representing at this election - what's their address and telephone number?
You guessed it.
By the way it's Northop Hall - just in case I get clobbered again for being too surreal ...
On the road
- 8 Apr 07, 04:32 PM
It鈥檚 Easter weekend, it鈥檚 warm and sunny where I am and Dundee United just beat Aberdeen 4-2 (Nice one, lads)! So what else is there to do but top up the election blog?
Well, of course, the political leaders have been out scouring for every votes - in every part of the country. The first minister has embarked on a wide-ranging tour of Scottish constituencies. Every other party is similarly hitting the road.
Why so geographically diverse? Why not just focus on key marginals? Why spread yourselves so thinly?
Every vote counts, that鈥檚 why.
That isn鈥檛 just a political platitude to rank alongside 鈥渢he only poll that matters is on election day鈥 and 鈥淚 have every confidence in my leader鈥. This one鈥檚 true.
Scotland鈥檚 top-up list system means that every vote, quite literally, counts. Think you鈥檙e in a safe seat - where a primate could win, wearing the right party affiliation? Think again. You鈥檙e also part of a much wider region - and your list vote could be the difference between victory and defeat for a regional candidate.
This time, the second shall be first. The ballot paper鈥檚 been redrawn to put the two Holyrood votes together: list vote on the left - visually first. The constituency vote is on the right.
That鈥檚 why you鈥檙e seeing parties who look for seats primarily or solely on the list talking about 鈥淔irst Vote my party..."
But the majors are taking the list very seriously too. The SNP frankly neglected this aspect in 2003 - and slumped badly as the vote spread to a rainbow of Red and Green. This time they鈥檙e billing that regional vote as the chance to choose a first minister.
Rather naughty - and it鈥檚 annoyed some rivals. Strictly, the regional vote 鈥渃orrects鈥 any imbalance from the constituency vote. But it indicates the huge importance attached to this regional contest.
As I write, I鈥檓 glancing at a leaflet from the Tories in my patch. It says they鈥檙e out for more constituency seats - but frankly acknowledges that they get most of their MSPs from the list. In essence, it鈥檚 a plea for folk to split the ticket if they can鈥檛 vote Tory throughout.
LibDems, too, have thoroughly grasped the concept of list canvassing. They鈥檒l be out in all areas, not just the constituency seats they hold.
Finally, let me add: Daly, Hunt and Cameron (2). The United goalscorers. Oh, come on, after the past few seasons, I鈥檓 allowed to gloat.
"Thank you for the ... statistics".
- 6 Apr 07, 09:44 AM
Nice one ITV Wales. Do I wish the poll had been ours? Yes of course I do. But until people far more important than I am agree that polling in Wales isn't only justified but part of the service we are here to give the public, it won't happen. So keep hassling.
Had Rhodri Morgan already seen the predicted 25 seats when he said he'd retire if Labour did really badly? Would he have said it at all unless he feels in his gut that they won't do really badly?
Rhodri M talks of sensing the mood by the number of people who cross the road to avoid him. Is it happening this time round? No - says the man himself. Mind you one of his biggest fans tells me that out in Blaenau Gwent last year there were only two responses to the boss on the doorstep. It was either "Come here love, the First Minister's come to see us" or "Rhodri, good to see you!".
They still lost and lost badly.
Up in Scotland, where Jack McConnell really does know what meltdown in the polls looks like, how do they view our man?
This is George Kerevan in The Scotsman yesterday
"Rhodri Morgan is a charismatic figure ... He is fun at a time when Scottish politics has become so very strait-laced ... His latest bon mot was to suggest that global warming would do wonders for Welsh tourism. But wily Mr Morgan is teasing us. His man-of-the-people act hides the fact that he has earned degrees from both Oxford and Harvard .... I strongly suspect Rhodri Morgan will still be in power after 3 May."
One man's clown prince of Wales ...
United Ireland
- 5 Apr 07, 06:43 PM
Just finished a piece on the prospects for a United Ireland. Brian Feeney, the Irish News columnist, insists that Sinn Fein has been swallowing concessions for the DUP to achieve power-sharing. The party, he says, needs some time to show unionism that there is nothing to fear from republicans or integration. Mr Feeney says the point is for unionists to no longer see the point of unionism. One wonders if that will take a political lifetime? And how long is that? And what will the message be from Sinn Fein this weekend, as the party prepares its Easter speeches?
Bacon butties and baiting
- 5 Apr 07, 11:04 AM
Hot cross buns from the Electoral Commission yesterday, bacon butties from the Lib Dems today.
They still got a bit of a drubbing at their manifesto launch.
1. If the Lib Dem future is 'fair and green', why not play fair and tell people which pledges they'd stand by in coalition talks? Mike German leafs through the manifesto an awful lot, as if hoping to find the answer there ... He won't.
2. Don't their election leaflets deliberately con the public? Quoting in one 'an election expert' who bigs up their chances, failing to mention he's the party's own Chief Executive. Naughty naughty.
3. Where is Lemibt? Photos in the manifesto of Jenny Willott MP, Mark Williams MP ... but Lembit Opik MP? No sign of the Welsh leader anywhere. "He's busy, all his time goes on canvassing in Montgomeryshire. He was in Chepstow yesterday". Buy the man a map.
Two members of the Wales 60 group sit in front of me, watching proceedings. What did they make of it? "It's a very small world" said Anthony Berrow, who'd learned nothing about what the party was actually proposing on the issues in which he's interested.
What do you want?
- 5 Apr 07, 10:47 AM
An aside on the 91热爆 Scotland poll on priorities.
There鈥檚 an old Liberal Democrat joke. (No, not PR for Westminster - they鈥檙e serious about that.) It tells the tale of LibDems on a protest march - beards fluttering and sandals in synch, tramping proudly.
鈥淲hat do we want?鈥, their leader yells. 鈥淭he single transferable vote in multi member constituencies鈥, they chorus back.
鈥淲hen do we want it?, bellows the boss. 鈥淚n due course!鈥, they trill.
You get the point. Ineffably polite. Well, it seems it may be more than just a caricature. In our poll, identified LibDem supporters tended to be less demanding. They favoured change - but preferred not to shout about it. They weren鈥檛 so inclined to give every issue top billing and top priority.
Those who were pressing most for action were those in the DE income band. Not surprising, I guess. If you have little, you want more - and you want it quickly.
Men had the strongest opinions on motoring levies. They really hated the ideas of congestion charges and motorway tolls. (To be clear, every sector of society disliked these notions.)
Elsewhere, it was women who tended to have the most sharply defined opinions, notably pressing for action on law and order.
Gildernew minister
- 4 Apr 07, 08:36 PM
Speaking of Sinn Fein ministers, a colleague of mine was out interviewing Michelle Gildernew at Carson's statue today as a car with an agriculture official from her new department drove past. Ms Gildernew noted the time at around quarter to four and wondered aloud where he might be going so early in the day!
New Sinn Fein Ministers
- 4 Apr 07, 06:32 PM
Spent half an hour today at a press conference with Martin McGuinness and his new ministers. Conor Murphy was introduced to the media as Regional Development minister - and Mr McGuinness joked he would be building an airport at Camlough. But a quickwitted hack swiftly pointed out he had just closed one - a barbed reference, no pun intended, to the newly demiitarised British army base Bessbrook, once the busiest heliport in the world. The Sinn Fein ministers laughed heartily at the remark before one pointed out the new airport would be a civilian one!
Some Tory stories
- 4 Apr 07, 04:40 PM
So now we know who all the candidates are. Or are not in some cases.
Do you remember Thomas Goodhead? The great-great nephew of Aneurin Bevan was welcomed very loudly by the Conservatives as their man in Blaenau Gwent.
But Thomas has "failed to submit his nomination papers in time" and has been replaced.
Over in South Wales West though, they're sticking with their line-up for the list. There had been moves afoot - or so the 91热爆 was told - by senior members of David Cameron's shadow cabinet to try and persuade Chris Smart, number two on the list, to stand down. Inaccurate accusations about Mr Smart's past conduct have been doing the rounds but he's sticking with it. And they're sticking with him.
And since I'm talking Tory, is David Cameron preparing to give independence to the Scottish Conservative Party? Yes, according to this week's Spectator and the ConservativeH 91热爆 site. He's planning a "velvet divorce" that would give the Scottish Tories the freedom to take up their own identity and agenda "that could be distinct from that chosen by David Cameron for England and Wales".
What do Welsh Conservatives think of that then?
"Interesting" they say. "As you know in Wales we already have a separate Welsh director, Welsh HQ and Welsh board of management".
Ah but identity and agenda? Whose signature was first - above Nick Bourne's - on the Welsh manifesto?
Reg's Choice?
- 4 Apr 07, 11:22 AM
Speculation about the DUP's line up continues, and the Ulster Unionist leader is still mulling over his choices, having selected Health and (by default) Employment and Learning. If Sir Reg Empey doesn't take health, some party hacks suggest he will look weak. But he has a good excuse: it is too big a job for a party leader. On the other hand if he takes it, that clears the way for his deputy Danny Kennedy to take DEL. Otherwise, Alan McFarland may get health, and Sir Reg could take DEL. That no doubt would leave Mr Kennedy disappointed. On the other hand,if Mr Kennedy does get a ministerial post in DEL, and Sir Reg does take health, Mr McFarland could be promoted to Deputy Leader and focus on rebuilding the party.Watch this space.
What about the committee chairmanships. Is the DUP going to be rotweiller at the heels of the Sinn Fein education minister? What about the new health minister? Who is going to have to face a grilling from a DUP health committee chairman (possibly Iris Robinson)?
New Ministers
- 4 Apr 07, 11:19 AM
Sinn Fein is set to unveil its ministerial team at 12 (this time with the departmental jobs attached.)
Michelle Gildernew is tipped for Agriculture, Conor Murphy, for Regional Development, Catriona Ruane, tipped for education. That leaves Gerry Kelly expected to join Martin McGuinness as a junior minister in the Office of First and Deputy First Minister.
But given that speculation on the ministerial portfolios has not been entirely on the money, these predictions come with a disclaimer and the news from Sinn Fein that we can expect to hear who gets what officially tomorrow. So far only Mark Durkan has formally declared who is getting the party's sole portfolio. No surprise that Margaret Ritchie is the new minister for Social Development.
The DUP's Nigel Dodds and Peter Robinson are out of the country which is likely to delay the DUP choice. Edwin Poots is now being strongly tipped to take a ministry. Might it be Culture Arts and Leisure?
Sorry!
- 4 Apr 07, 11:12 AM
SORRY!!
It's officially day four of my blogsitting and I must apologise for the lack of entries. It's been rather hectic as I have been covering Stormont solo these past few days and it has been rather busy. Also the technology is a bit of a learning curve for me. So I'm very sorry if there are any frustrated bloggers out there!
Speaking of apologies, there was a much overlooked comment at Gerry Adams' news conference yesterday (to unveil his ministerial team). That was his reference to relations with the media. Mr Adams suggested he could sometimes be combatative (though at times was given due cause) before wishing everyone a Happy Easter and looking forward to a new era. Was this a small act of contrition for suggesting Mark Devenport asked stupid questions? Or was it merely an olive branch to mark a new era where? These are good days, the Sinn Fein leader declared.
PS If Mark Devenport is out there, does he have any advice on blogging???
To close or not to close
- 4 Apr 07, 09:47 AM
You're talking to me. Fantastic. Keep 'em coming.
So what did you make of the rumble in the Llandudno jungle? OK, so no fists were thrown a la Rhyl just down the coast a few years ago but the gloves came off over the future of Llandudno hospital.
Labour guarantee that if they win the election, it has a safe future.
Is that a guarantee that all its services are safe? No.
That was over breakfast.
By lunchtime they were faced with a long list of other hospitals all queuing up for the same guarantee. In today's West Wales Manifesto Withybush, Glangwili, Bronglais and Prince Phillip Hospitals are all guaranteed an equally sound future. Like football managers are 'safe' when they get the dreaded backing of the club? No say Labour - a real future offering the kind of services the community really needs.
Still sounds a bit like 'downgrading' to some people.
And was 'to close or not to close' ever the question in Llandudno? No, say Labour. No say the Lib Dems and the Tories. No too say Plaid Cymru, who pepper their every utterance on health nationally with references to Labour's "hospital closure programme".
Were Labour wise to spell out their position then, especially since the guarantee they did give came more than a little undone under scrutiny? Maybe not.
Nothing much has changed for Llandudno Hospital but after weeks of goading, at least Labour took a gamble and came out fighting.
Two more bits of news.
I gather there was a meeting of South Wales West Conservatives last night. Will they stick with the same line-up of candidates or not? More on that later.
And in the list of categories into which I save this blog - Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland etc - a new name has appeared. Cymru. Soon to appear then, a blog in Welsh.
Who says the 91热爆 never listens?
United they stand
- 3 Apr 07, 12:13 PM
Political power is mutable, not fixed. At least, in a democracy.
Electoral churn is critical to refresh the system. (I still rather like the story of the defeated American congressional candidate who acknowledged his failure thus: "The people have spoken鈥︹.the b鈥︹!")
You can tell, too, when power is palpably shifting. Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and Jack McConnell were in Glasgow today. Together. In the same room.
Somehow, curiously, it was the Prime Minister who seemed fractionally marginalised when they all met the media.
Maybe that's because the topic was the Holyrood elections. Jack McConnell has a certain interest in the outcome.
Gordon Brown, ditto, because of a potential backwash at Westminster.
Tony Blair will, as he reminded us, be gone from office shortly, after Scots go to the polls on May 3.
Maybe also it's because the theme was the economy - or rather the latest chapter in Labour claims that the SNP's sums are flawed. (Nationalists, of course, dispute this assertion.)
Perhaps the intriguing element is not the relative (I stress, relative) eclipse of Tony Blair.
Perhaps it's that the First Minister was not utterly sidelined as, frankly, he has appeared in the past.
For example, Gordon Brown previously intervened in the election campaign with a hastily arranged (and mostly tedious) economic lecture at the Corn Exchange in Edinburgh.
On that occasion, Jack McConnell seemed, variously, like a warm-up man or a slightly uncomfortable onlooker.
Labour has learned. Indeed, I understand that party strategists have explicitly drawn lessons from the Corn Exchange event.
Perhaps it was the succession of journalists stomping out of the hall, bellowing "well, that was a waste of time" that offered a clue. (Yes, dear reader, I was one of them.)
Anyway, this time, both Gordon Brown and Tony Blair stressed the distinctive role of the First Minister.
Mr McConnell himself frequently intervened to take questions, even when, on occasion, those had initially been addressed to Mr Brown.
The FM, it would appear, has had enough of sitting in the shadow, enough of the opposition taunts. More to the point, his Westminster colleagues seem to grasp the concept - that these elections have their own status, not just as mid-term commentaries on UK issues.
Now, of course, rival parties will continue, entirely legitimately, to attack.
They will say that Tony Blair is irrevocably associated with war in Iraq.
They will demand apologies from Gordon Brown over pensions. (Mr Brown said today that the decision 10 years ago on dividend tax credits was right for the wider economy - and he'd do it again. Il ne regrette rien.)
Those attacks will be sustained - and will be potentially salient in the election campaign. However, for today at least, it seems that Mr McConnell has found dodged another dose of the TB/GBs.
Smoke gets in your eyes
- 2 Apr 07, 08:36 PM
The things you do eh?
Wayne, the darts champ and I had hoped to bring some clarity to the way we elect our Assembly Members. He'd throw the darts, I'd run through the figures.
No excuses - the pub was smoke-free after all - but put it like this: I suspect things weren't very much clearer by the time we'd done our stuff.
You win some ...
On my way back to Cardiff to do the same again in Welsh - minus the dart board - I passed one of those posters on wheels that Plaid Cymru have become so fond of. This one was in the process of being parked for all to see on their way in to work tomorrow.
'Vote UKIP' it said in huge letters. 'A vote to get rid of the National Assembly'.
And just at that very moment ... unlikely as they are to make a big impression on May 3rd ... the fog suddenly seemed to lift.
Disclaimer: it's been a very long day!
Deal or no deal
- 2 Apr 07, 02:26 PM
The Scottish Tories have had to get used to their fair share of obstacles in recent years.
But today they faced a physical obstruction in their path as they set off from Edinburgh to launch their manifesto.
They chose Galashiels in the Borders for the launch, typically, they said, a Scots town that would benefit from their family-friendly approach.
But standing in their path on the way from Edinburgh to the Borders were the Nationalists.
A group of SNP activists trooped deliberately slowly over a pedestrian crossing right in the path of the Tory election battle bus.
When she finally got to Gala, the Tory leader Annabel Goldie described the demo as "childish".
But the launch itself.... more child-like fun as the Tories chose to introduce their manifesto at a child play centre in the Border's town.
The image they were seeking to project was that of helping young families. Annabel Goldie said the people of Scotland were crying out for a focus on bread and butter issues.
But there was a fair touch of bread and water about the Tory launch too as they set out plans for a new prison and a hard line on crime and drugs.
Miss Goldie's strategic message was that the Tories would pursue their own programme and would not enter any pact with another party.
So don鈥檛 bother to ask Annabel Goldie whether it is "deal or no deal" - the answer will be no.
Triggering D'Hondt
- 2 Apr 07, 12:23 PM
Here is the order of which ministers are to be selected today - and the best GUESS of a Stormont insider as to where the departments may fall:
1. DUP - Finance
2. SF - Enterprise
3. DUP - Education
4. UUP - Health
5. SDLP - Regional Dev
6. SF - Culture Arts Leisure
7. DUP - Social Development
8. SF - Dept of Higher Education and Learning
9. DUP - Agriculture
10. UUP - Environment
Here's the thinking behind this: SF wants Enterprise because it has a strong cross-border dimension and they want to drive an all-island economy. They will later select Higher Education because its training element fits in strategically with driving the economy. DUPs may feel they have no choice but to take Education. Regional Dev is a big spend and although it has water charges it also has trains, buses and lovely cross border roads. DUP said to want Agriculture this time for the rural element. SF has longed for culture to promote Irish language despite the department's small budget. Health for UUP because Sir Reg likes a challenge and it will make his party rather important. DUP took Social Development last time because it lacks cross border element and includes housing. But take all this with a pinch of salt as it is not an exact science!
There is also whispers that there has been an attempt to precook the arrangements so the party leaders have a fair idea of who is getting what before today's meeting at 2pm today.
Martin McGuinness is about to meet the media at 1.45pm and the MLAs with him may be the faces about to become ministers. The media is expecting Catriona Ruane and Conor Murphy to make the Executive list. We'll soon see.
Here we go
- 2 Apr 07, 09:49 AM
Conferences: 4
Manifestos: 2
Candidates already deselected: 1
(the Lib Dems' man in Llanelli, so elusive he's been dumped. Any volunteers?)
So here we go then, round three. They're calling it 'the big one' in Scotland. How are things shaping up here in Wales?
Talk to Labour Party insiders and candidates and they'll tell you things aren't as bad out on the doorstep as everyone keeps telling them it is. But talk to some of the same people and they'll tell you they're working their patch really hard. Why? They're not sure, they just get the feeling that this time round, there's something out there that just might do for them.
Hospital cuts? Cash for Honours? Iraq? Not really ... just a feeling that you think their time is up.
Plaid Cymru, when they're not putting out press releases describing the Tory manifesto as "all substance, no spin", are confident - too confident for one bit of the party. The media men wish the other bit - the number crunchers - would stop chucking figures like 16/17 seats into the pot. Management of expectation and all that. Look what happened in 2003.
The Tories are fine thanks, still slightly taken aback that things - they sense - are going so well, still wondering whether the Cameron bounce will make it safely over here.
And the Lib Dems? Big decisions ahead for them ... no, not whether to watch the Cheeky Girls' new reality tv show, hoping for a glimpse of their Welsh leader but whether they should get into bed with Labour again if invited. Will the party's young Turks have the ammo and the desire to take over?
Our election desk is up and running.
I've had my first run-in with angry candidates.
I've even been granted a blog.
It must be election time.
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This is 91热爆 News's election 2007 blog. The political editors from across the UK will report here throughout the Assembly and Parliament elections.
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