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Could the Irish scupper the Lisbon Treaty?

• Mark Mardell
• 6 Mar 08, 05:00 PM

I watched several MPs in the Commons argue that there shouldn鈥檛 be a referendum because people wouldn鈥檛 read the Lisbon Treaty.

It鈥檚 something I discussed on the Jeremy Vine Show and it鈥檚 certainly true that it鈥檚 a difficult and abstruse document.

But clearly credits its people with more intelligence and has published legislation to go ahead with a vote on the treaty.

No date yet, but the rumour is will announce it during next week鈥檚 European summit.

While European politicians were most nervous about the prospect of a British referendum, an Irish 鈥淣o鈥� is not an impossibility.

Of course, . The Irish government broadly blamed it on a lack of time spent campaigning and will not make the same mistake again.

Although after the Nice 鈥淣o鈥� , I am pretty sure that would be impossible in the current climate.

So an Irish 鈥淣o鈥� would be a very serious business. It would surely kill off the treaty of Lisbon, as surely as the .

Which would leave the leaders of the EU is a very tricky position: would they really spend the next two years trying to tweak the text again so that it looked sufficiently different, to go through the whole process again?

Rejection signs?

Some are already suggesting the foundations for rejections are there.

that shows 33% of voters are undecided.

lists more factors that could encourage a 鈥淣o鈥� vote: from the investigation into the financial affairs of Bertie Ahern, which may make the government unpopular, to the Irish Independent reprinting articles from the Daily Telegraph (although it wrongly states the Telegraph doesn鈥檛 have a correspondent in Brussels).

In Ireland, the argument is already underway. campaigning against the treaty. Its arguments are not the traditional British ones about sovereignty and an increase in the power of 鈥淏russels鈥� but about hard economics.

Their argument is the contention that: 鈥淭he threat of the Treaty provisions is that the EU could force Ireland to behave like a 鈥榬ich鈥� economy in terms of regulatory and other breaks for Foreign Direct Investment. The implications of this are potentially devastating.鈥�

Tax veto

has hit back, saying the Reform Treaty preserves the existing treaty arrangements whereby taxation matters must be decided by unanimous vote.

He says taxation matters are and will remain a decision for member states: any member state can veto any proposal on taxation.

He adds: 鈥淲e need to ask ourselves what message a No vote would send to the US boardrooms where investment decisions are made. If we are seen to park Ireland in some Eurosceptic backwater, what message will we be sending out?鈥�

but things always get more lively when a whole nation is involved, and this is going to be an interesting debate to watch.

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