91Èȱ¬

While the recent storms mean the United Kingdom has been hit with rain and floods this winter, parts of Europe have been facing a drought and this could have an impact on the food prices in our supermarkets.

According to the British Retail Consortium, on average, food prices are rising by more than 6% a year in the UK. With half the UK's food imported from overseas, the knock-on effect of extreme weather is playing a significant part in this.

The latest rain and snow levels from the Mediterranean and the Pyrenees region have raised concerns of drought. According to Météo France, the level in the Pyrenees area is the lowest for January since records began.

The dry weather in the region is threatening food production and triggering concerns about food security and rising prices - also known as "heatflation".

According to a report by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), in 2022 just over a quarter of UK food imports - worth just over £16bn - came from the Mediterranean, mostly fresh fruit and vegetables.

Spain, which has seen some of the most intense heat and drought, accounted for 7% of UK food imports - worth £4bn.

Some popular fruit and vegetables, like strawberries, cauliflowers and broccoli, cannot be grown in the UK for at least parts of the year. Two thirds of our cucumbers and tomatoes are imported, as well as nearly a fifth of the UK's onions.

The cost of buying tomatoes from importers has increased significantly over the last 18 months. Average tomato prices hit a 50-year high of £3.26 per kilo last year, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Gareth Redmond-King, head of the ECIU's International Programme, told 91Èȱ¬ Weather that climate impacts were worsening everywhere, saying, "Along with soaring gas prices since Russia invaded Ukraine, this has already added more than £600 to the average UK shopping bill over the last two years."

In the coming years, EU farmers' resilience will continue to be tested by our changing climate. In the face of depleting reservoirs, they are now having to transition to more sustainable agricultural production methods, such as smart irrigation systems that use recycled waste water.

Many are also experimenting with drought resistant crop varieties to help mitigate against extreme weather events.

Drought in the region has been on my radar a lot over the last few years. Simply put, areas around the central and western Mediterranean have been hit by rising temperatures and declining rainfall over recent years, making drought inevitable.

According to Copernicus, the European Union's climate change service, the Mediterranean has warmed 20% faster than the global average and, under current policies, temperatures are expected to increase by 2.2 Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels by as early as 2040.

From my own analysis, parts of southern and eastern Spain stand out as an area especially badly hit by ongoing and worsening drought. Worryingly, a few areas are experiencing some of the worst drought conditions in more than 160 years of records.

Total reservoir capacity for the country is at around 30% of its total, with the Ministry for Ecological Transition stating this is the lowest for 27 years and 20% less than last year's figure.

In tourist hotspots such as Catalonia, Murcia and southern Andalusia the situation is even more concerning. Reservoir levels sit at just 17-19% overall, but water supplies in the Almeria province are now critically low, at only 9%.

The lack of meaningful rainfall over a number of years is the main cause. Spain, as a whole, has only experienced one year in the last seven where annual rainfall could be considered above average.

The situation in the south and east is even more dire. In the period since the start of October 2023 (the wettest part of the year) many areas have seen less than a quarter of what they would expect. This does not bode well for water availability later in 2024.

It has been a double whammy though. The lack of rainfall has been combined with spells of exceptional heat. Did you know that the air above drier ground heats up quicker and to higher levels than areas where moisture in the ground is present?

Astonishingly, temperature records were exceeded in both December and January as the mercury surged to around 30C. This has also seen crucial snow pack, a source of water for some in spring, disappear from parts of the Pyrenees and mountains of central Spain.

Over the last 10 years, annual temperatures have been above the long term mean, and in 2022 the temperature in Catalonia, Murcia and Andalusia was over two Celsius above normal.

The Spanish weather service, AeMet, is forecasting that the continuing trend of warmer-than-normal weather has a high probability of continuing this coming spring, but with rainfall close to average for the time of year.

Rain amounts are still unlikely to be enough to solve the current drought impacts, with the regional president of Andalusia, Juan Manual Moreno, already warning of possible restrictions to water usage in the likes of Malaga and Seville this summer.

Could those of us heading for the Spanish Costas this summer see the effects of any restrictions?

Emergency measures could also be tightened in and around Catalonia, including Barcelona, where water pressure and usage restrictions have already been introduced.

How this part of the world deals with drought is likely to only face more scrutiny, with climate models predicting that with every rise in annual temperature there will likely be a decrease in overall rainfall, unlike here in the UK where winter rainfall is likely to increase.