91Èȱ¬

The "Great Storm" hit southern parts of the United Kingdom in October 1987 creating headlines for the damage it caused but also from the infamous Michael Fish moment.

Storm Ciarán was similar to this storm and for the Channel Islands, impacts were comparable to those in 1987.

For southern England, it was close to being as bad.

The autumn has so far been dominated by storms with no sign of any significant change to wet and windy weather.

Since the beginning of August there have been six named storms affecting the UK.

In August we had Antoni and Betty which were technically on last year's storm naming list but, on 1 September, as the new autumn/winter season began, the 2023-24 naming list was used and we had Storm Agnes.

Agnes was followed in October by Babet which brought exceptional rain to parts of Scotland. Rare red warnings were issued by the Met Office and it was by far the wettest day on record for Angus in eastern Scotland since 1891.

The stormy period continued into November with Storm Ciarán bringing hurricane force winds to the Channel Islands which was "comparable in severity with the 'Great Storm' of 16 October 1987" according to a report by the Met Office.

The 'Great Storm' was infamously not predicted in enough time to properly warn people of the dangers and has been synonymous with 91Èȱ¬ Weather forecaster Michael Fish who told viewers "'not to worry, there isn't a hurricane on the way'" the night before the storm caused widespread damage.

In Jersey the highest wind gust recorded during Ciarán was 93mph (150km/h), the strongest wind since October 1987 at 98mph (158km/h).

There was also a powerful tornado that caused major damage on landfall in St Clement, Jersey.

In northern France, the wind reached speeds of 122mph (196km/h) at Ile de Batz and were typical of an exceptionally severe storm, and similar to the 115mph (185km/h) recorded in Shoreham-by-Sea, West Sussex during 1987's Great Storm.

On this occasion, the track Storm Ciarán took meant southern England had a very near miss. Had it been 90 miles (150km) to the north, we would be looking at widespread damage and destruction on a par with 1987.

However, even had that been the case, the major difference to 1987 is the forecasting and communicating of severe storms like this.

Storm Ciarán was forecast days in advance with a greater skill of computer modelling combined with appropriate Met Office severe weather warnings and general communication around what to expect.

The wet and windy weather has mostly continued and this week we had Storm Debi bringing strong winds across the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and northern England.

Debi is the earliest 'D' named storm since such storm naming began in 2015, and therefore on this measure it has been the stormiest start to autumn in seven years.

What is perhaps more striking is that last year, there were no named storms in the autumn/winter period.

Meteorology is complicated.

The simple answer is that the jet stream - fast winds high in the atmosphere that help create areas of low pressure - has been stuck in quite a southerly position, directing weather systems across the Atlantic to the UK.

Explaining why this might be the case "is a challenge" according to Helen Dacre, professor of Meteorology at the University of Reading.

Professor Dacre said, "There are a number of factors that interact in a complex way to influence the position of the jet stream, especially for an extended period of time, including Arctic Sea ice, sea surface temperatures and the El Niño Southern Oscillation in the Pacific."

El Niño - a warming of the Pacific Ocean - has been observed this year and it can cause the jet stream to move further south in latitude.

"North Atlantic sea surface temperatures have also been higher than average recently so there may be more energy for storms to become more intense and wetter," said Professor Dacre.

It has certainly been very wet in the UK recently.

The Met Office has suggested that from 1 September to after Storm Ciarán on 7 November, some areas have seen more than twice the rainfall you would normally see at this point in autumn.

Eastern Scotland, north-east England, the south Pennines, East Midlands, much of East Anglia, some southern coastal counties and the east of Northern Ireland have been the wettest areas.

It doesn't look like there will be an end to the generally disturbed weather patterns across the UK during the next few weeks.

Areas of low pressure are likely to bring more weather systems from the Atlantic with above or near-average rainfall amounts accompanied by occasionally strong winds.

However, in early December there could be a chance of somewhat drier weather at times, more likely in the southern and eastern UK.

As the ground is already very saturated, any additional rain may bring further severe weather warnings from the Met Office.

And as naming storms is based on impacts, given that we may see flooding with even relatively normal autumn rainfall, the bar may actually be a little lower when meteorologists at the Met Office, Met Éireann or the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) decide whether to name a storm.

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