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How do election polls work?

We find out why poll predictions sometimes get it wrong.

2024 is a huge year for elections, with more than 60 countries holding national elections and over half the world鈥檚 population voting. With each election it can seem like opinion polls dominate the coverage but how are these polls carried out? We speak to pollster and data analyst David Byler from the American non-partisan polling company Noble Predictive Insights about how it all works.

We also hear from the 91热爆鈥檚 North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher, who explains how significant the polls are in the 2024 US Presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Historically there have been lots of poll prediction fails. 91热爆 journalist Rupsha Mukherjee in Delhi tells us about how some important polls got it wrong in India鈥檚 general election this year. And Niko Kelbakiani, a journalist at 91热爆 Monitoring, explains the role opinion polls play in Iran鈥檚 elections - where the Guardian Council must approve every candidate.

Instagram: @bbcwhatintheworld
WhatsApp: +44 0330 12 33 22 6
Email: whatintheworld@bbc.co.uk
Presenter: William Lee Adams
Producers: Julia Ross-Roy, Benita Barden and Hayley Clarke
Editor: Verity Wilde

Available now

15 minutes

Last on

Sat 12 Oct 2024 02:50GMT

Broadcasts

  • Fri 11 Oct 2024 17:50GMT
  • Sat 12 Oct 2024 02:50GMT

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