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The US special envoy for the Horn of Africa is due in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, for talks on the escalating crisis in the northern Tigray region. Jeffrey Feltman is to meet government representatives a year after Tigrayan insurgents seized federal army bases, sparking a conflict that's claimed thousands of lives. What started as a row between the federal Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the local political elite in Tigray has spiralled into something much bigger.

The newly created Tigray Defence Forces retook the territory it initially lost in Tigray, and moved into neighbouring regions too. In recent weeks it has taken key towns, and forged an alliance with Oromo rebels. So will the combined force now march on the capital, Addis Ababa. We asked William Davison, an analyst on Ethiopia for the International Crisis Group:

鈥淭hey said they are in position to march on Addis Ababa. They also have the option to move east to try to control the Djibouti Corridor 鈥� the main trade route for Ethiopia 鈥� that would exert massive pressure鈥� and, perhaps, they could even re-route humanitarian supplies directly to Tigray therefore addressing the famine issues.鈥�

鈥淭he federal military is in a severely weakened state. The Tigray commanders now say they are in such a strong position they have no interest in negotiating with Abiy Ahmed so he has no incentive to make concessions. It鈥檚 a very scary situation and in many ways the dynamics are escalating.鈥�

(Pic: An Ethiopian woman weeps during an event marking the one year anniversary of the war in Tigray, in the capital Addis Ababa; Credit: EPA)

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