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There are millions of planets out there that could contain intelligent life. We can't look at them all, so which should we focus on? Using nothing but statistics, astronomer Fergus Simpson predicts the aliens will be living on small, dim planets, they'll have small populations, big bodies, and will be technologically backward.

This goes against many astronomers' working assumption that the earth is typical of inhabited planets - and that our sun is an ordinary star in an ordinary galaxy. Fergus argues that this is an example of the "fallacy of mediocrity" which we fall for time and time again, whether it's in our assumptions about gym membership, taxi drivers, or train overcrowding.

Presenter/Producer: Jolyon Jenkins