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The plans of Kenneth Clarke, the Lord Chancellor and Justice Secretary, for changes to sentencing in England and Wales have already proved highly controversial. But how are they likely to work in practice and what are their effects going to be?

Joshua Rozenberg explores what the thinking behind the reforms is and how the Justice Secretary's plans for higher discounts on sentences for "early pleas" of guilty by offenders came unstuck. He also talks to a leading criminologist about a radical new approach towards the early identification of potentially serious criminals. He discovers how reliable the evidence for this strategy is and what benefits it might offer the police, the courts - and politicians seeking to achieve a smaller prison population.

Producer Simon Coates.