91Èȱ¬

Very good point about McLaren, a wet Friday compromises everyone but particularly them. Japan last year had a wet Friday and was followed by an incident-filled Saturday

Another thing is that the tyres this weekend are the softest and hardest so a bigger gap than usual. Going to be an intriguing weekend!

Looking at the circuit profile ( ) that's a nasty weather forecast for the teams with the supersoft and hard tyre compounds in action and having used the grooved tyres the last time they were at Hockenheim. Race setup could be something of a lottery which will hopefully produce a lively race.

Thanks for the weather updates once again - here's hoping this one pans out as predicted.

I have to say I'll be a bit disappointed if Friday is wet and the rest of the weekend is dry. Kind of spoils it a bit, the only good thing being they can't test the 2 compounds. Would be good if we could have a bit of rain on Saturday too, particularly for qualifying, even if that looks relatively unlikely at this stage. Still, a few days to go, maybe the cold front will slow down and hold the rain back for another 12 hours or so (even if that means a dry Friday). Would rather have a wet Saturday if I'm honest. Throws up setup issues for the race then as well (do they gamble on a drier setup for qualifying so they're ok for the race, or go for a wetter setup and hope for the best in the race).

Hi Ian, been meaning to post on these blogs for a while. It's great for us F1 / Weather fans the effort you put in here! I'm also on NetWeather so I read your musings on the winter we just had with great interest!

I did notice that a few days ago GFS was bringing the Azores east on around Wednesday/Thursday which has obviously been pushed further back. Let's hope this pattern continues and we get unsettled weather in Germany this weekend!

Cheers,

Chris

Well, some rain on Saturday for qualifying would be interesting, but if not, it's not the be all and end all, though even a wet FP3 and dry qualifying (after a sodden Friday) throws up it's own messy situation as they could have to go into qualifying having done no dry running whatsoever. I have to say, I hope things don't get so bad on Friday that we end up with a situation like Monza 08 (practice session stopped early, and if you didn't know any better you'd think it was late evening because it was so dark), or Interlagos 09, which was quite ridiculous. If it rains, that's fine, and to be fair it does seem relatively likely, just don't want it being so bad that rather than the drivers deciding not to go out, the race director has to red flag the session to stop them going out.

Ian:

With your weather predictions for the German Grand Prix does not sound so good....Here is my question for you: Latest GFS output (ps: taken from your # answer).....

~Dennis~

Ian:

To my original post what does GFS Output means?

Sorry, for the double message!

(d)

Seems like we could be heading towards (based on Ian's prediction for Sunday) a wet weekend with all 3 days affected. :O

Should be an incredibly interesting 2 day weekend. Ian, does Friday look like a destined washout even if the forecast does change slightly, or would you say that's unlikely based on the amount of rain?

Ah, fair enough. :) This may sound stupid (not being a weather forecaster myself!) but would it take a lot of 'swing' (can't think of another word!) to get Saturday to be 'wetter' than what it already is? You mention morning showers, what's the chance of the system slowing itself down into qualifying?

Friday sounds pretty bad. Maybe the teams should pack some powerboats to drive round the track on Friday instead? It's certainly turning out to be an interesting forecast though, that's for sure. Wouldn't be overly surprised if the teams need to watch their radars on all 3 days.

Looking at the latest update from the model I've been pointed to numerous times ( ) Friday actually looks alot better than anticipated, with Saturday still hit and miss, and Sunday probably dry. However, that's just that model which I've been pointed to before.

Thanks again Ian, appreciate the information.

Once again, for those interested in stat's and records, the Hockenheim preview is here:

Overtaking breakdown back to 1983 is here:

@Ian, it seems like we'll be radar watching all weekend. I will, however, be extremely annoyed if we get no wet action at all!

I have to say, looking at numerous forecasts, most of them seem to be quite different, with some saying a high chance of rain all 3 days, some saying wet Friday and Saturday, Sunday dry, some saying wet Friday, dry Saturday, wet Sunday, etc, all varying though. Going to be interesting to see how this all plays out.

Since yesterday GFS continues to delay Azores pushing east, in fact by several days now. Massive upgrade for the whole weekend.

I hope by 'upgrade' you don't mean drier weather for the entire weekend.... :/ :(

That's more than likely what he does mean DMN. If it was a worse forecast than originally thought, he'd probably say so.

Well that's typical then, isn't it? I'll wait till Ian comments before getting my hopes back up. (unless its a rogue and an inaccurate update - not sure if that's even possible)

Hmm, just checked the Meteo link that you provided Stevvy, Friday looks drier, Saturday and Sunday possibly wet - so it's slowed down a little bit in that the wetter weather won't come until Saturday now.

Will have to wait and see. Personally I can't see every single session from the start of FP1 through to the end of the race being bone dry, equally I can't see it being so dry that there's not even any rain when the cars aren't on track.

Quite a variable forecast it seems. First we were looking at pretty much certain washout conditions for Friday, hit and miss for Saturday, and probably dry for Sunday, now Friday could give us all sorts of weather, same for Saturday. This is a decidedly tricky forecast to say the least. I'll be annoyed if we end up with a fully dry weekend though (in terms of when cars are on track). Just out of curiousity Ian, what (if any) are the chances of overnight rain into Saturday morning and Sunday morning? Just wondering, given the fact that if they have to start from scratch with a green track, it makes things difficult for them again.

Upgrade = WETTER weather :)

just a hope and thought and maybe good luck charm 4 those who want a wet race whats the german for weather.. oh yeah WETter!! fingers crossed!

I hope we get some kind of accurate estimate without much swing soonish, at the moment it looks like an utter ping pong ball.

Agreed DMN, it seems to be changing all the time. Will be annoyed, very annoyed if we get a fully dry race weekend though when cars are on track, especially after Friday in particularly looked like a certain washout.

Don't like the 10am update... :/

Nor me. I'm bored of being disappointed (not that I blame Ian of course). Can't we have some rain this weekend? Please?

The way I see it is with every update, the chance of rain continues to decrease...

Same here, which given the incredibly high chance of rain orignally forecast for Friday, as well as quite probably chances of rain on Saturday, and a lower chance on Sunday, is extremely annoying. Don't really want washout conditions as such, but surely, surely, we're going to see some damp running at the very least......hopefully. Be a massive letdown if all 3 days are bone dry, after such high % chances of rain were originally forecast.

By the way Ian, just on a slightly different topic (and maybe being slightly cheeky given this has barely been going for half a season), but do you intend to continue with these Grand Prix Weather blogs next season?

Ian, I have a question for you:-

I saw that EUMETSAT was used to aid the prediction of weather patterns and upcoming conditions. I so happen to have worked for a research group that is ran by Professor Phillipa Berry (based at De Montfort University in Leicester) that is primarily funded by the European Space Agency and has the job of calculating various forms of earth observation through satellite radar altimetry.

One of their major projects is based on measuring and predicting inland water (river and lake) levels, in addition to looking at soil moisture and land elevation models. I worked with altimeters in the form of ERS-2, EnviSat, Jason-1 and Jason-2, in addition to TopeX. I think another colleague may have used EUMETSAT in some form.

Do you recognise any of the altimeters I mention and could you give me a little insight into how you you use EUMETSAT?

So, Friday now seems more likely to be wet, and possibly Saturday too. I obviously appreciate you saying about a low chance of rain for Sunday, and some cumulus clouds appearing, but of course there was a relatively low chance of rain for Turkey too, and a shower just popped out of nowhere (admittedly without properly hitting the track and making it wet), so that's certainly something to bear in mind, as I guess it's not impossible for us to see a shower just bubble up and dump itself over Hockenheim on Sunday. If Friday is mixed conditions, that of course causes problems for the teams (not much, if any running on the 2 dry tyres for example), and even if rain doesn't fall until after the practice sessions, it'd make the track green for Saturday. Saturday sounds like it could be very interesting though. I know we're 2 days away, but I can see a Malaysia 09 style rush at the beginning of each part of quali to try and get a dry banker lap in, just in case it rains. Looking forward to the next update though.

No problem regarding it being a hurried update, at least it was done. Have also picked up on the fact it's raining in Hockenheim. Noticed on Legard's twitter feed (and also another 91Èȱ¬ colleague Sarah Holt) who've both confirmed that it's started to rain now. Really hope the weather blogs continue next season as well, personally I think you do a fantastic job with them. Very detailed, constant updates (including nowcast updates where required), you respond to people asking you questions and give small updates in your responses at times too. Been very impressed with it so far this season, especially in cases where the forecast had moved around dramatically, as it has so far this week, so we're constantly brought upto date. Very much appreciated. Keep up the good work.

Just want to throw this in as well regarding how bad the weather is at the moment at Hockenheim. Numerous people at the track saying that there's a mega downpour, and 1 Twitter feed I've seen, has reported that the rain is so heavy, and the track so wet, that even the Safety Car managed to go off at turn 1, which is quite incredible, and shows just how bad it is. It's safe to say that had this rain arrived tomorrow (as it was originally forecast to do), the sessions would absolutely have to be red flagged.

Autosport predicts:

- Friday afternoon wet
- Saturday morning damp

Any chance of your usual video forecast appearing Ian? Also, are you expecting any rain to fall after qualifying, thereby making the track green again for Sunday?

Very interesting and intriguing news about Saturday, which could potentially shake the grid up if the track is damp or drying/could rain at any second type of scenario!

Thanks Ian as always. :)

Only problem there I guess DMN, is as we've seen all week long, the forecasts are changing so often, and so quickly, it's impossible to keep track, and to know exactly what's going on. Can easily see the Saturday forecast changing another 3-4 times by Saturday morning. It's been ridiculously unpredictable.

Well, it seems like possibly less likely that we'll get away with a fully dry 2 sessions today. Pouring down as we speak apparently, and could be like that for most of the day according to some F1 people on Twitter. Still hoping for some rain tomorrow as well though.

Red Button guys just said Sam Michael of Williams said forecast has changed to rain today, dry tomorrow, wet Sunday?!!

Thought it looked incredibly dark towards the end of FP1... then someone texted in saying thunderstorm in an hour! I think nowcast updates may be in high demand within the next 3 hours... ;)

I think the possible thunderstorms may just miss Hockenheim to the east but we should see a bit of rain in the coming hours. Apparently there's going to be a lot more rain tonight.

Anthony Davidson tweets saying it's started raining again at Hockenheim.

Don't know if this corresponds with what you're seeing Ian, but Jonathan Noble (Autosport) has tweeted that there are 10 (TEN!!!!!) storms on their way to Hockenheim. Don't know if that's actually the case though.

So unless a miracle happens, no dry running today.



A lot of orange bits heading up to Hockenheim, so I cannot see any dry running today, really - even though there is over an hour until FP2. (doh, I thought FP2 started at 2pm UK time when in fact it starts at 1pm!!)

Ian, are you expecting the storms themselves to hit before/during FP2? If so, are we potentially looking at a Monza 08/Interlagos 09 situation, where the track was literally flooded, and they had no choice but to throw the red flags? Obviously the track first thing this morning was wet enough.

Ah yes, just noticed that, thanks Ian. Still seems like a wet FP2 though, just depends how wet. It seems like (possibly) Kubica was right when he said the first time they get to try the dry tyres this weekend could be Sunday (I appreciate a couple of drivers tried them at the end of FP1, but I'm more referring to the grid as a whole). Going to be a very interesting weekend.

Wow... I'm really not sure what to say about the weather forecasting anymore! For us guys it's annoying seeing it change every 5 seconds, but I imagine for forecasters like yourself Ian you find situations like this intriguing where its impossible to know 100% what to expect even for the next day!

Ahem....

Looks like being dry for the start of the second session and may even stay dry for the whole session, lets hope so
5 minutes ago via web

Ah, okidokes. We shall see indeed. :)

I always seem to miss your video forecasts - when are they available Ian?

Many thanks,

Dan

Seems like the rain held off until after the session, but the GP2 Qualifying was held in full wet conditions.

Hope the F1 Qualifying is in similar stuff... ;)

By looking at the radar, I can't see how there's going to be rain tomorrow for practice/qualifying as the wind moves it eastwards. I have my fingers crossed though.

Autosport suggests:

- Saturday: damp in morning, drying
- Sunday: Dry, outside chance of shower in afternoon

(Although this time yesterday they predicted dry then rain for F1, when in reality we saw it the total opposite way, rain with drying conditions until 20 minutes after the F1 ended)

Hmmmm, would be good if we could get a bit more rain, maybe have FP3 in wet/damp conditions, even if qualifying is then dry.

Seems like you got your wish Stevvy. ;)

Although I think conditions are brightening up slightly now - still, would be nice if we get one or two more showers before qualifying.

Looking at , there's a band of showers developing below Frankfurt, some of which could hit Hockenheim.

Well, I know rain tomorrow is probably unlikely, but it does seem like showers have been popping up and developing almost out of nowhere (that's the way I read your 12:25pm update anyway), so certainly not impossible for tomorrow.