91Èȱ¬

UPDATE 09:00hrs, FRIDAY 12 FEB. 2010:
So, a few light snow showers reported across the expected areas in the pastÌý4 hoursÌý- at RAF Lyneham, RNAS Yeovilton and one or two other spots; also a dusting in some parts of the Cotswolds according to some local observers... but that's likely to beÌýthe lot for today in terms of anything wintry!

Next week's forecasts will be interesting, for sure. Much more unsettled generally; still essentially cold and a complex mix at times of rain, sleet and snow accompanied by some windy weather.

Whether late Monday into Tuesday brings snow for parts of the West Country remains to be seen. The potential is there, but the various forecast models continue to show a fair degree of disparity (and they continue to do further into next week, too).Ìý Until their continuity improves, it's very much an uncertain situation - watch this space and I'll endeavour to keep you abreast of developments.

Ìý

UPDATE 05:10hrs, FRIDAY 12ÌýFEB. 2010:
The latest Met Office modelling offers even less emphasis of snow showers into the West Country this morning - perhaps a dusting here or there in Wiltshire and east Gloucestershire, but really I doubt we'll see muchÌýelse! Some rain and occasional patchy snow has been falling further east this morning around the 91Èȱ¬ Counties, but it's all very temporary in nature.

Worth adding that any wintry showers this morning will tend to become a rain / drizzle mix progressively as the day continues - so any snow reports this morning are likely to prove rather fleeting as most!

Ìý

(ORIGINAL ENTRY FOLLOWS)

It's another brief blog update - I'm into bed by 9pm this eveningÌý(oh yes, it's a recurrent theme in my life!) and by the time I'm driving to 91Èȱ¬ Bristol around 3.30am tomorrow, some of you could have at least a little snow falling... enough to at least garner some attention.

It's by no means a spell of disruptive snow like some events earlier this winter (or indeed last February). Much lighter, but a temporary covering certainly possible in a few localities. So, I'm expecting to be spending time on certain 91Èȱ¬ local radio breakfast shows tomorrow morning (Friday)Ìý- notably Wiltshire, Swindon and Gloucestershire - talking in my forecastsÌýof light snow accumulations by the morning rush-hour. Exactly where is the keyÌýquestion I'll tackle at the time!Ìý

A dusting for most; maybe a centimetre or so for some of youÌýin Wiltshire especially. So nothing significant but nonethless, enough to warrant this blog entry - especiallyÌýafter a largely dry week (well OK, some impressive, if fleeting, snow showers aside!).

And what is causing the Friday morning snow potential?

We're watching an upper airÌýfeature that's developed north of Shetland - a shortwave trough - sinking steadily southwestwards across the British Isles tonight. Expectations take it on a track down from eastern England across the Midlands, into southern-central countiesÌýand parts of the West Country by tomorrow morning.

It's leading edge is likely to offer some light to moderate snowfall for some localities - starting (for our region)Ìýin parts of east and upland Gloucestershire and north Wiltshire around the early hours (say 3-4am) and then progressively southwards and somewhat westwards towards daybreak. It's possible the wintry showers will take a while to fade for some areas - perhaps continuing into the early afternoon across some parts of Wiltshire, for example.

It's just about possible some light (and at times perhaps slightly more significant)Ìýsnow could fall in Bristol and Bath / B&NES, for example; ditto east Somerset and down into parts of Dorset and east Devon. However, I stress that the main West Country focus is most probably Wiltshire, at least based on our current expectations.

It'll be interesting to see how the morning outcome matches the forecast prognosis - this signal for a spell of light snow early on FridayÌýhas been consistently presentÌýin the Met Office (NAE model) forecasts run during the last 48hrs.

So - just to re-stress, not anything heavy by way of snow tomorrow and perhaps rather patchy in nature - but please do add your own observations here on the blog if you see snow tomorrow!

Incidentally, next week continues cold and a good deal more unsettled. I'll update you in due course...