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Stormy Saturday...

Ian Fergusson | 15:26 UK time, Friday, 13 November 2009

UPDATE, SATURDAY 14 NOV., 1200hrs

It's certainly been pretty wild this morning across all our districts, with a spell of very windy weather sweeping eastwards, yielding some impressive gust speeds at many observation stations.

The geographic spread of the strongest winds has varied somewhat in the latest forecast modelling by the Met Office, when compared to those shown in my previous update from last night (see below). Nonetheless, the essence of this distinctly stormy weather story remains effectively the same.

As I write, the skies above Bristol are once again dark and threatening, as further showers pass quickly eastwards behind the squally front that crossed us around an hour or soÌýearlier. There's still scope for some damaging gusts of wind for a while longer into the early afternoonÌýand I'm conscious that some trees will have been weakened overnight. Indeed, we've had reports to the 91Èȱ¬ of fallen trees in a number of districts, including parts of Gloucestershire and Somerset.ÌýÌý

If you have any damage reports - or indeed photosÌý- please doÌýshare your experiencesÌýhere on the blog. You can also send us pictures for the at yourpics@bbc.co.uk

I've pasted below the weather observations recorded across the West and environs at 11 am this morning and at midday.

You'll note some of the wind gusts labelled with a prefix 'G'. And remember, these values are in knots (you can convert them to MPH ).

Look down nearÌýthe Isle of WightÌýon the 12pm observations - a gust of 83 knots.Ìý That's 96mph!!

synops_141109_1200.jpg

synops_141109_1100.jpgUPDATE, FRIDAY 13 NOV., 2345hrs:

windspeed_09Z_141109.jpgCurrently, some of you might think it's a case of "what's all the fuss about?", as we see a (predicted, I stress!) lull in the winds across our region. It's not going to last...

I've attached here the very latest Met Office prediction of wind gusts for 9 am in the morning.

These suggest some damaging gusts are very likely: the figures you see here (e.g., 60) are knots, not mph. In other words, a high likelihood of gusts around 70mph, more than enough fell some trees and cause some structural damage to buildings. We've been seeing some of this already across the SW of England and tomorrow could yield a genuine sting in the tail.

Ìý

UPDATE, FRIDAY 13 NOV., 1500hrs:

Wild weather continues to loom into this evening and overnight into Saturday. The major concern for us is primarily the strong winds we're expecting to develop, albeit the likelihood of heavy rain is another factor being closely monitored.

By mid-evening tonight, winds will be gusting around 60-70mph in some exposed southern districts and progressively overnight, we'll see a swathe of similarly strong gusts extend northwards to affect a broad swathe of our region.

Tomorrow morning (Saturday), winds will peak - probably around 6-9am - with gusts through the Bristol Channel touching 75mph and widely inland at 60-70mph.

And that's certainly enough to cause real problems: trees and power lines down; perhaps some structural damage; and disruption to all forms of transport.

Unsurprisingly, my planned day off on Saturday is curtailed...

However by afternoon, things will be improving. Still windy, yes, but not as troublesome in terms of gust strengths. A good deal of brighter, blustery weather will prevail for us by late Saturday, with a generally less noteworthy day (weatherwise) to come on Sunday.

However, with further wet and windy weather returning on Monday and likely again mid next week, a risk of local flooding -Ìýfrom a continued accumulation of rainfall -Ìýis certainly one to watch....

Ìý

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    Im not really a fan of Wet and Wild weather so when do you think we will see a period of more settled, colder weather?

  • Comment number 2.

    Hi Ian.
    It's getting rough here already! I'm slightly inland here in Dorset (Wareham) and i'm recording 36mph.
    Exciting, yet dangerous times. Off to Kimmeridge tomorrow, to hopefully get some wind readings.

  • Comment number 3.

    The rain's been falling for 3 and a half hours now and i've recorded 20mm of rain with wind gusts reaching 48 mph.

  • Comment number 4.

    Hi Jack,
    Thanks for your feedback.
    The answer to your initial question - re any likelihood of colder, frosty Autumn weather - is effectively "not in the immediate future".
    Indeed, it's quite the opposite.
    Our forecast for the next week - and a few days thereafter - continues a theme of rather mild and at times very wet and windy weather.
    Sorry!
    Best,
    Ian

  • Comment number 5.

    Hi Cliff,
    You need to take those readings just around daybreak (Saturday). Could prove wild indeed. Do take care!
    Cheers
    Ian

  • Comment number 6.

    Drybrook - Gloucestershire, Through the rest of the night, gusts of wind were touching 60 mph, while by the end of the night 43mm of rain had fallen.

  • Comment number 7.

    A bit blurry i know, it was hard to stand on the cliff at Kimmeridge with a pocket cam and an anemometer hehe.
    Absolutey exhilarating stuff down there!

  • Comment number 8.

    Love the photo, Cliff - aren't those hand-held pocket anemometers great?! I'd imagine you could duplicate that recorded figure - and potentially around 20mph to it - along parts of the S/SE coast this afternoon!

  • Comment number 9.

    Incidentally - I note that a tree has come down over near Corsham (Wilts), blocking a road there. We're experiencing some very impressive gusts right now from this cluster of post-frontal showers. Certainly no sign of any immediate improvement...

  • Comment number 10.

    Wow. Gust of 87 kts recorded at the Needles (Isle of Wight) in the 1300hr Met Office observations - that's 100mph!!

  • Comment number 11.

    Good afternoon Ian, in the Points West weather shown today, Saturday, at lunchtime, the presenter Jemma Cooper said
    "this is the first significant weather front of the Autumn" (exact quote).
    But this is not correct. The first significant gales / severe gales perhaps, but we've had a number of fronts (warm, cold and occluded!) giving spells of bad weather in some shape or another since October. Actually she regularly talks on radio of 'big fronts moving in' or similar phrases when I think she means weather systems in a broader sense? Maybe a terminology misunderstanding.
    Liking the blog, by the way.

  • Comment number 12.

    Hi Stormwatcher, welcome to the blog.
    I would imagine Jemma meant "significant gales" or "severe gales" (of the autumn), but the point she was obviously stressing is clear enough. I can assure you that all of us TV weatherfolk - probably without exception - come away from most live TV broadcasts thinking, post-hoc, of at least one thing we could have expressed differently. As you may be aware, we work without any autocue and to very tight time constraints (Jemma probably had a minute or so to include all the key facts describing a day of very active weather... and a minute of telly time simply flies-by!).
    Perhaps I should pen a blog entry explaining how we bring your TV forecasts to air. II'll write something on this in due course.
    Best,
    Ian

  • Comment number 13.

    These were certainly significant gales, the first night my dog and I retreated downstairs for fear of the roof blowing off!!! Quite frightening. I hope that this was not a taster of things to come this autumn, but looking at the isobar charts for next week my knees are already trembling!!!

Ìý

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