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Here we go again. The Golden Globes have just kicked off the movie awards season with . This will be followed in quick succession by the Baftas, and then, at centre stage, the headline act that everybody really wants to see: the Oscars.

The Golden Globe gongs will be dished out on Sunday 16 January, providing some nice champagne moments for the winners while everybody else stares into the post-party herbal-tea mugs to read the mint leaves.

Does the fact that such-and-such a movie or actor won a Golden Globe give us a reliable heads-up as to the winners of the forthcoming Oscars? Recent history suggests not. But the runners-up prize isn't bad. A Golden Globes win guarantees that the movie becomes part of the "will-it-won't-it" chatter over the ensuing weeks, leading to a second lease of commercial life that has the box-office effect of a sequel without the bother of having to make one.

Already there's talk of this year's awards being dominated by a head-to-head between The King's Speech and The Social Network. Maybe; I'm not so sure. 127 Hours and Inception (both with British directors, like The King's Speech) seem to be at least as good, while Black Swan is both very different and, I am told (I haven't seen it yet), very good.

There is one other film that should be added to the mix and might come up on the rails and run off with the Oscar: the Coen Brothers' True Grit. Not released in the UK until two days before the Golden Globe winners are announced and totally overlooked by that short-listing committee, it would not surprise me if the Coen Bros have the last laugh and canter off with the Big Prize. Again.