Mandelson and markets
Few would deny that these are dreadful market conditions for selling any substantial asset.
The global economy is in recession. Credit is tight. The value of businesses on the stock market remain depressed.
So when the first secretary says it looks impossible right now to sell a sizeable chunk of Royal Mail at a price and on terms that would secure value for the taxpayer, well that's uncontroversial.
The problem for Peter Mandelson is that market conditions were - if anything - even worse on 16 December last year, when he embarked on his adventure to partly privatise this historic public service.
The economy was in freefall. Credit was almost impossible to obtain. And stock-market prices were more-or-less where they are today.
Which implies one of two things.
Either Mr Mandelson and the government were demonstrating a complete absence of commercial nous in thinking it was a good moment to sell Royal Mail.
Or his real reason for abandoning the sale has as much to do with politics - with the fervent opposition to the deal of much of his own party - as with the scarcity of cash-rich purchasers.
Comment number 1.
At 1st Jul 2009, writingsonthewall wrote:First again?
Robert - are you knocking out a few reports before going home at 5?
If they sell off Royal mail I want you to keep this blog as a record so in 15 years time when the Government is re-nationalising it I can say.
I TOLD YOU SO.
As one privatisation fails - the Government tries to start another.
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Comment number 2.
At 1st Jul 2009, Eddie wrote:I guess the market conditions are equally poor for the sell off of Northern Rock?
Or is this just politics - a sell off of Royal Mail is right for the UK, but would cost Gordon Brown his job at the hands of his back benchers?
No backbone, no moral compass, all Government policy is about saving one job now - Gordon Browns.
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Comment number 3.
At 1st Jul 2009, virtualsilverlady wrote:Difficult to fathom out the Dark Lord and his devious actions.
The pension fund black hole of the PO has been brought to the forefront so now everyone is aware of the problem.
This is just one pension fund deficit in the public sector so perhaps he is softening everyone up for the restructuring of all public sector pension funds.
It's not the sort of problem you would dare hand over to a new government to sort out without giving some warning of what to expect.
Post Office privatisation was always a non starter for Labour but the fact it was even raised was obviously a means to some end.
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Comment number 4.
At 1st Jul 2009, talkinghorse wrote:Good. At least now my pension(such as it is) will not now be degraded by the next government as it will not become part of the public sector pension nightmare.
Now we can have a serious debate on realistic regulation and effective modernisation. Sorry got a bit carried away there. Of course management will now redouble their incompetent,patronising and bullying scare tactics in the hope and belief that this is what real business men do when they don't have a clue what to do.
Nevermind the madness will continue when the tories come to power and privatise RM completely.
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Comment number 5.
At 1st Jul 2009, ghostofsichuan wrote:Electronic mail and other forms of electronic communications has to a great degree reduced the need for mail. The mail service is like the blacksmith of old and although some still maintain the need for those services the general use has disappeared. The problem with every government service is in its end. It seems in government that it cost as much not to do something as it does to do it. Like anything else the determination should be made as to why this is a service that should be provided by the government. If the private sector can, as it already does, provide this service and protect privacy there is no need for the government to be involved other than to investigate privacy violations.
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Comment number 6.
At 1st Jul 2009, Cityunslicker wrote:Exactly - politics trumps economics. This is always the case until economics comes and blows away a government, as the credit crunch has done to Labour.
I bet the tories are gutted as they were looking forward to labour doing the hard lifting.
No doubt Mandy has his speech written to berate teh Tories for doing this when they come to power and have to raise every last penny they can to pay gordon brown's debts.
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Comment number 7.
At 1st Jul 2009, lordBeddGelert wrote:Oh dear !! Some people will read into this that the economic situation is now WORSE than it was at Christmas..
Whatever will Gordon and Alistair Darling make of that ?
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Comment number 8.
At 1st Jul 2009, Me-thinks wrote:Given Peter Mandelson's track record on telling things "straight" -- don't really feel that we can rely on his version of the situation.
As "egrid1" quite rightly says the only reason for this latest "U turn" is to save Gordon Brown.
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Comment number 9.
At 1st Jul 2009, apetetong wrote:This Government always does the inverse of what a sensible business person would do, they sell assets when the markets are at rock bottom (Royal Mail, Gold ) and buy back in when they are at the top or have gone bust.
We, the taxpayer lose out at every turn, but I suspect there are those that are in the know in the government that do very nicely out of it.
Corruption is not limited to third world and African countries, its alive and well in the UK PLC.
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Comment number 10.
At 1st Jul 2009, SSnotbanned wrote:...''the Dark LOrd'' Plan B.
? money:
Sale and leaseback
ALL sites.Sorting offices,delivery offices,counters,garages,admin,e.t.c.
Then franchise.
''Localisation of the business''.
? motivation: b/c sorts out the union.Cannot sell a business for fair value if it goes on strike every time it come up for sale.
? Maybe: Too scary for many politician's though.
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Comment number 11.
At 1st Jul 2009, VinChainSaw wrote:If the railway privatisation is anything to go by we'll soon be paying 5 quid to post a letter.
If the government of the day decides to sell off a piece of their public responsibility then surely we should all be paying less tax?
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Comment number 12.
At 1st Jul 2009, icewombat wrote:Thats a maissive blow for the goverment....
The Post Office pension pot was the main reasion for the sell off.
Dispite being under funded the pot holds Billions of ready cash and investments. Spend aholic Brown was planning to liqudated the pot and spent the money this year and pay all pensions directly out of following years taxation.
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Comment number 13.
At 1st Jul 2009, Blogpolice wrote:If the part privatisation is still govt policy why don't they continue with the bill. The timing of the bill is not linked to the timing of the sale as long as the bill is past before the sale.
Chickens.
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Comment number 14.
At 1st Jul 2009, stanilic wrote:I think if you work on the principle that Labour does not understand business, or the concept of investment, or that there has to be a return either quantitative or qualitative on capital then you will get it about right.
The Treasury has been selling off the family silver for almost thirty years now and only the brass fire dogs are left to cash in. Not only has the silver run out but so have the pathetic fools who might want to buy Treasury cast-offs. Once an organisation has been shafted by The Treasury as many times as the Royal Mail it is pretty far gone in the survival stakes. It is easier and cheaper to start off in competition from scratch.
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Comment number 15.
At 1st Jul 2009, delminister wrote:this is only showing that this "Lord" has no idea and is a disgrace to the post he holds.
this person a member of the blair government that worked to destroy the peerage and remove the royal leadership, so having a title is about as two faced as is possible. he should have been removed when his prior misconducts were brought to light.
he has the nick name of the dark lord but to be honest the inept lord sounds better and i can only hope he fails to become re elected in the next general election.
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Comment number 16.
At 1st Jul 2009, VinChainSaw wrote:I dont really see why they'd want to sell off RM anyway.
There's a gaping big hole in the pension fund but you'd surely need to assume that that is only short-term and the value of the pension fund will rise as the markets rise and we climb out of this recession?
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Comment number 17.
At 1st Jul 2009, ruralwoman wrote:Lord Mandy and co have obviously decided to take white van man off the road to lessen the competition before sell off.
Seriously though folks... its been a fab summer day, Roberts written 3 good blogs, lots of learned bloggers comments to read, Murray trounced his opponent, Mervyn took time out to visit Wimbledon and watch the match, so their must be a few pennies left in the BoE coffers.
Even A.C should rest easy tonight.
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Comment number 18.
At 1st Jul 2009, kaybraes wrote:It wasn't exactly the top of the market when Brown gave away our gold reserves at a knock down price. Truth is, the government is scared to risk a post office sell off debate in the commons in case they lose. They also are terrified that the PO union withdraws it's funding before the election.If only for once one of our government ministers would tell the truth, it would make a nice change. Now it will be left to a Tory government to sort out the PO and this of course will mean all out war with the unions who will have all of the Labour party ( who never really intended to sell them down the river ) firmly behind them.
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Comment number 19.
At 1st Jul 2009, threnodio wrote:We have surely reached the point where the government is extracting the
proverbial. We have Adonis nationalising a rail service while Mandelson is trying and failing to flog a piece of the Post Office, completely contradicory policies advanced by ministers who, having conveniently avoided the necessity to be elected or explain themselves to the Commons, have gone off on wild goose chases.
This is utter madness from an administration which has surely lost all credibility.
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Comment number 20.
At 1st Jul 2009, e2toe4 wrote:There is no possibility of comment any more as the entire thing is totally transparent before us.
Virtually everyone on this blog talks to the issue,(Everyone on loads of blogs and in many pubs, cafes and workplaces) sees clearly whatever aspect they are discussing and makes (more or less) complete sense..... But when Politicians speak about anything to do with ...well anything really...... you may as well try and discuss the colour of tap water as bother talking about what they are saying.
LIstening to, or even reading, what Mandelson, Brown, Darling and, my own favourite, Yvette Cooper and Harriet Harman are saying is like trying to follow a Harold Pinter play in Russian..when you don't speak Russian. ( And, as they're all Labour.. in the interest of balance it applies to the usual suspects in the other parties... with honourable exceptions...stand up Vince Cable,for one)
Or, to be more precise....listening to them it's as if the words are all there and each little one of them makes sense, but the entire sentence, paragraph or expressed thought just evaporates, magically, into meaninglessness.
I had though this was because they were all practiced at this dissembling ...in which tiny soundbites are mindlessly repeated because they ARE the message and the other 95% of the time the words should be soothing gibberish..the better for the soundbites to stand out from.
But it's not that...it's worse than that; I have realised that the common thread behind the entire Escher-like carousel of successive disasters is that this way of speaking is exactly what they are like all the time.
THat's why nothing gets done...none of them actually ever know what the plan is or whether there is any plan because they are all, always , evolving a strategy response to ensure the message is coherent and zzz... delivered...zzzz zzzz ....................
That's why TESCO are going to buy Northern Rock and they will get into trouble and the Govt will need to step in and TAKE FIRM AND EFFECTIVE ACTION!!!!
To end on a completely discordant note------- an excercise in anlaysis
Stan Laurel =
Oliver Hardy =
The enormous flight of stairs =
The piano =
The incapable way in which they battle bravely to get it up the stairs =
And......
The fact that it ends up totally smashed to smithereens =
It's far too hot to write any more, I'll just pop outside for a while......
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Comment number 21.
At 1st Jul 2009, obangobang wrote:"Or his real reason for abandoning the sale has as much to do with politics - with the fervent opposition to the deal of much of his own party - as with the scarcity of cash-rich purchasers."
D'uh, d'ya think?
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Comment number 22.
At 1st Jul 2009, hughesz wrote:Regardless of what was best for the Royal Mail or the UK, part privatisation was never going to happen under Labour , they never had the bottle to take on the back benches/trade union.Labour's inability to make hard decisions is truly breath taking. However I have concerns for the Royal Mail , it will be at least another 2 years before anything happens and by then capital for modernisation will be difficult to get due to the nations stretched borrowing.
Keeping hospitals open v modernising RM . Not hard to choose.
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Comment number 23.
At 1st Jul 2009, talkinghorse wrote:This obsession with privatisation is nuts.
RM does work and has been "modernising" for several years. We now do less collections, only one delivery and have stretched the time from posting until delivery to up to 36 hours. This is because management pretending to be a business put profit over service and are still in denial about their atrocious decision making abilities i.e. "bring it on" to early liberalisation of the market without making any actual preparation for it, not even making proper costings before setting a price for down stream access of competitors mail, cutting staff in expectation of increased mechanisation of the sorting process at least a year before the machinery is bought and finding out after committing to the deal that the machines only save about 20 minutes of preparation time for each delivery per day.
Privatisation may have solved some of the above shortcomings in management but it would not have solved the problem of business over service which has all but destroyed RM.( remember when it was a service and you got collections throughout the day and even some on Sunday. Two deliveries a day and early ones too. Average time from collection to delivery was about 14 hours)
The pension deficit is something of a red herring. It is a notional deficit as it depends upon which accounting method is used to quantify it. Anyway that particular fund is now closed to new entrants and frozen for existing contributors. (All those who lump it in with public sector pensions please note CONTRIBUTORS.)
Is it any wonder that postmen are. seen as militant. They have seen their workload increase out of all recognition, their pension taken from them and their sense of worth and pride in the job destroyed. Senior management have no connection with the actual job and have a very patronising attitude to those that do.
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Comment number 24.
At 1st Jul 2009, Adey wrote:Robert:
"Or his real reason for abandoning the sale has as much to do with politics - with the fervent opposition to the deal of much of his own party - as with the scarcity of cash-rich purchasers."
Nail on head there, I suggest?
Would that your mate over on the politics blog was as brave as you are in raising alternative possibilities where Mandelson is concerned?
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Comment number 25.
At 1st Jul 2009, godfreybrown wrote:Whilst much is spoken about the pros and cons of selling off or privatising our largest public services (such as the the NHS, Post Office, Rail Transport and Utility Companies etc I for one am not sure if this is a good or a bad thing to do.
On the one hand and speaking as an engineer, with more than 40 years management experience in the manufacturing sector, I would like to believe that businesses that are privately managed are better managed.
Only insofar as they are more productive and more cost effective than bodies that are overseen by politically motivate bureaucats. My problem is that I am no longer sure if I believe this is true.
In recent decades I and many others have seen a considerable number of previously well run companies brought to their knees because they had been headed up by highly paid people who might have been finacially competent but were later proved to be incompetent businessmen. Many of them had little or no regard for the business or the people they were managing. Their only real aim or interest was to make as much money as possible, for themselves, in the shortest possible time before their efforts were found to be less than satisfactory. That I believe is mainly down to the way that succesive governments have allowed the banking culture to dominate all aspects of our economy, to the detriment of all other sectors.
I also happen to believe that many of the people now working in our largest public bodies (particuarly government and Whitehall) need to accept that the culture of having a safe job with excellent pension prospects has to come to an end soon. Sadly the only way that will happen is for these bodies to become privitised.
In which case there may be trouble ahead until everyone involved faces the music and starts to dance.
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Comment number 26.
At 1st Jul 2009, DebtJuggler wrote:Do you know what!...
I am sure when Eddie Mair finished interviewing Mandy on the afternoons PM radio show on Radio 4...Eddies signed off his interview with Mandy by saying...'Thank you Lord Meddlesome'.
...and do know what!...Mandy just said 'Thank you!'...but the 'you' was said with a hint of 'did he say what I think he said!'
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Comment number 27.
At 1st Jul 2009, DebtJuggler wrote:PS...no one is match for Eddie Mair when being interviewed by him...not even Lord Meddlesome!
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Comment number 28.
At 1st Jul 2009, Nick Drew wrote:So the price of Mandelson's (unusually) lame politicking is that the Post Office will languish and, when eventually something must be done (the Pension, proper competition regulations), it will be in to respond.
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Comment number 29.
At 1st Jul 2009, grahampitcher wrote:I've just seen your report on the 91Èȱ¬ 10 o'clock news - If you took your hand out of your pocket when presenting and didn't emphasise every other word it would have much more credibility.
Graham
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Comment number 30.
At 1st Jul 2009, ARHReading wrote:The rationale offered by Lord Mandelson is complete nonsense and if he thinks that people will be taken in by his explanation he can think again. Perhaps he should take a look at the timing of Gordon Brown's sale of part of our gold reserves! The deferral of a move to properly finance the Post Office is yet another ticking time bomb for the next government.
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Comment number 31.
At 1st Jul 2009, gj_kingston wrote:When a government is failing, it u turns on policies it made in the past.
When it is desperate, it reverses those of the current parliament.
When it reverses policy within weeks, the country is in trouble.
Mandelson may well be a good politician. But a good politician is good by yesterday's standards. The country now is crying out for honesty and genuine action rather than words. Labour have nothing more to offer than pleas.
They have no time left in which to successfully implement policy and see the results, so they're implementing policy which will make it harder for the opposition.
At the country's expense.
The 'no more boom and bust' policies are shot to pieces. It is now all about popularist policies which will not stop the inevitable election loss but will weaken the opposition, and then the country two fold.
If Brown was truly a man of the people for the people, he would call an election now. It would be slightly more positive for us than just simply resigning.
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Comment number 32.
At 1st Jul 2009, DebtJuggler wrote:This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.
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Comment number 33.
At 1st Jul 2009, hack-round wrote:Mandelsson knows markets he also knows the truth. But it does not stop him medalling for his Cabinet mates sake the truth is that where Gordon and club have taken us is not where we should be for we cannot re-set the economy nor drive western imitative in controlling money flows. The economy is now driven by the low cost centre of advanced technology in the Far East.
That is mow the engine house of economic recovery not the West and the only hope we have is that we will be left with a currency that will be strong enough to buy the goods they produce. We will also need a disposable chunk after tax to be able too.
That is squaring the circle
I know the Government ministers are spouting rubbish and drivel because the population would rather believe the false promises that we can spend spend spend and we can .However we are in the world today potentially not significant enough as a purchasing power to be really worth saving as a viable market place.
We need a lot of good will to still be considered as a valued customer to the world
And while our knowledge base may go someway to redress that but the concepts of the last ten years and the devaluation of educational certificates have weakened that strategy. like so many others
So we are in a bit of a rock and a hard place and public spending is the only game in town. That is why there is more at stake about revealing the figures of public spending than just the party wrangling.
It would allow a good economic journalist to prove what I believe and the I.M.F. suspect the government and the banks are giving us the mother of all W recessions only the danger is the last bit will benefit those far away from our shores while the UK citizens pick up the bill to pay the piper.
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Comment number 34.
At 1st Jul 2009, stmewan wrote:On top of everything else and this week so far, identity cards and the Post Office sale expensively abandoned. This is yet another symptom of a UK government that is sick beyond recovery.
It is a pity that David Milliband chose to enjoy a few more months as Foreign Secretary rather than pick up the challenge of rebuilding the Labour Party. Is his star already waning? Can he strive for the greater good or is he another addict of politics, power and debt?
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Comment number 35.
At 1st Jul 2009, halifa wrote:The last time we had a major sell-off of postal services, what we got was a bunch of parcel delivery companies who deliver for their own convenience, not the public's. If I miss one carrier (and you don't necessarily know who's coming, or when), their depot is 90 miles away, the closest about 26 miles. If I miss Royal Mail it's a 20-minute walk. The whole concept about public services is that the clue is in the name - there were abuses and inefficiencies, but public services shouldn't have to make money: for example, I won't get out of my car until it's almost as convenient by bus.
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Comment number 36.
At 1st Jul 2009, DebtJuggler wrote:#19 Threnodio
Hear, hear.....piss up in a brewery blah blah!
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Comment number 37.
At 2nd Jul 2009, Prof John Locke wrote:with this government it is always politics... they are backing off anything that will give them bad headlines or possible commons defeat... ID cards, Gurkhas, Royal Mail, spending reviews, nuclear go ahead, etc etc.......They are running scared...! Luckily they are incapable of even getting this policy of retreat right, see todays defeat of the flagship clean up politics bill....
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Comment number 38.
At 2nd Jul 2009, Luke wrote:It would look rather silly if the Government were to sell off all or part of the Royal Mail when they've just nationalised part of the rail network.
That doesn't mean they won't do it though.
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Comment number 39.
At 2nd Jul 2009, KingPrawnRing wrote:Can we have our utilities back please?
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Comment number 40.
At 2nd Jul 2009, ladymaryellenwood wrote:Robert, There is no money floating around. Gordon Brown says he is going to fund investments in NHS, schools etc by selling government assets. Do you know what these might be? Is there somebody out there willing to pay the top rate for these assets, or will it be another case of selling gold cheaply.
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Comment number 41.
At 2nd Jul 2009, Slug wrote:This government has clearly lost any connection with the public. When they came to power they could genuinely claim to be doing what was best for the country. Now they are obssessed with power and what is good for the country no longer counts if it does not extend their chances of staying in government.
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Comment number 42.
At 2nd Jul 2009, tinibob wrote:At 6:45pm on 01 Jul 2009, e2toe4 wroteStan Laurel =
Oliver Hardy =
The enormous flight of stairs =
The piano =
The incapable way in which they battle bravely to get it up the stairs =
And......
The fact that it ends up totally smashed to smithereens =
This is the best analysis of this government I have ever read and I have not stopped laughing for minutes, my stomach muscles had a good workout...
Really good post, thanks
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Comment number 43.
At 2nd Jul 2009, excellentcatblogger wrote:Robert,
There was never a business case for the partial sell off. It was all about implementing a European Commission directive. This government will always shaft the UK's best interests when it comes to Europe.
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Comment number 44.
At 2nd Jul 2009, mkerry13 wrote:Oh boo hoo. Welcome to the real world postal workers. I don't recall anyone giving two hoots when all of us with private pensions were hit by the government raiding our hard earned pension pots and telling us we have to work harder and longer in order to support the public sector.So pardon me if my sympathy is a bit thin on the ground.Did you really think Gordon Brown and his boss actually cared...get real.
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Comment number 45.
At 2nd Jul 2009, treetop91 wrote:It was all going ahead at xmas when many comentators doubted the wisdom of the move at the time.Now the economy is not robust enough.Does the government now admit that most commnentators are 6 months ahead of them when it comes to intelligence? We shall be pumped more lies.no doubt.
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Comment number 46.
At 2nd Jul 2009, Maimonides wrote:I think if you work on the principle that Labour does not understand business...post 14.
Also bear in mind that there is something about the word 'labour'they don't quite seem to grasp, also.
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Comment number 47.
At 2nd Jul 2009, AC wrote:Hang on a second #2- Northern Rock is in a different ball game. I'm quite hopeful that actually (if the gov stick with it and don't sell out too early), we'll actually make money on that. Though I appreciate that your home may be repossessed if you don't make up payments on your mortgage etc etc.
The Post Office is an altogether different beast. This would be hard to sell even two years ago, such a mess...but it's other people's fault right?
Tired with the blame game. It appeared to be an incredible call when Mandelson stepped up and said it was on the cards leading to all sorts of speculation...
One thought- had feelers been put out suggesting that there was a purchaser waiting in the wings? Was there someone out there who fancied it? Have they backed out? Mere speculation and hypothesis of course.
The other thought which immediately springs to mind being the doubtful type is- what news was buried in the week of the PO announcement?
Anything of note?
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Comment number 48.
At 2nd Jul 2009, hubert huzzah wrote:Conditions never were right. Any part Privatisation would carry a bonanza for private carriers in the form of corporate welfare. The systematic opposition to allowing BT to compete without restraint, since privatisation, has resulted in a growing pension pot hole and an "underperforming" company. BT was formerly a part of the GPO. The major failings of BT now will become the major failings of a privatised Postal Service.
The failure to privatise the Postal Service (in whole or part - it is all just a matter of degree) is the final nail in the coffin of "private good: public bad". Before any Government privatises any publically owned good or service there needs to be a comprehensive root and branch review of the privatised companies. Have they delivered to customers? Undoubtably, shareholders might be happy - although, the present economic circumstances would beg to differ.
To justify Post Office privatisation really requires justification of the behaviours of energy and utility companies. Freedom Of Information requests around "negotiation with regulators" would be more than a little revealing as to the future of the Post Office under private management. Examination of the BT pension system - as a case study in what is likely to happen to a privatised Post Office pension fund (ostensibly the reason for the part privatisation) would be, surely, the correct way forward for any self respecting Economist in the private sector. Perhaps the The Liaison Committee could get together to discuss which Committee or Committees has competence to instigate such investigations - as it appears The Business and Enterprise Committee has made and withdrawn the business "solution".
Withdrawing the suggestion of privatisation now, while economic condition are improving, is a significant reason for Parliament to consider new alternatives for the Post Office. If Private Carriers wish to take part of the Post Office Business there is surely a strong argument that they should also support the less profitable parts as well - in order to avoid the accusation that they are being anti-competitive. Decades of privatisation have weakened the power of Government Monopolies to such an extent that it becomes increasingly apparent that a Government Monopoly would increase general economic health. In much the same way Keynes and - more obviously - Laffer argue that an increase in tax, past a certain point, reduces revenue. The Post Office is past that point of "too far". Given the need to nationalise Northern Rock and the Public Ownership of the East Coast Line, the question that needs to be asked is "what else should be nationalised?"
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Comment number 49.
At 2nd Jul 2009, paul4u wrote:The Post Office is a fine tool enabling Governments distribute wealth and employment around all parts of the country, as were many of the profitable nationalized service industries (many like the car industry and BA for example needed to be privitised)Post Office, Utilities etc facilitated our economy in myriad ways, they enabled people and communities to regenerate, stimulate growth. Look around, people like to build things. As a nation we seem to spend a lot of time figuring out just how much money others have in their pocket, at the same time it is seen as vulgar to ask others how much they earn. Profit maximisers make a science out of our disposable income, governments and business buy into this science to such an extent that it makes more sense for them to charge us for the air we breathe instead of just taking action and reducing road speed limits for example. It is a revolving door, we really ought to be looking at ultra wealthy and powerful individuals the same way as we look at drug addicts instead of aspiring to them. Capitalism needs to be rational if it is to survive.
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Comment number 50.
At 2nd Jul 2009, proman53 wrote:Lord Mandleson has shown why Labour is now past its sell by date. Your observation that economic condition are technically better now than in December only goes to show they forget their own spin.
The Prime Minister is going to drag calling the election because he refuses to see that he and he alone is decimating this country's economic future.
He like Mandleson has never done a proper job and still think Stalin had it right. Well the most joyous moment for UK plc will be when Labour are wiped out at the polls. Quite frankly a dead ox could run the country better so Cameron has it made by default not design.
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Comment number 51.
At 2nd Jul 2009, JavaMan wrote:Is this the shape of things to come?
Can this be called anything other than a depression?
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Comment number 52.
At 2nd Jul 2009, andyunlimited wrote:Delminster said "he has the nick name of the dark lord but to be honest the inept lord sounds better and i can only hope he fails to become re elected in the next general election." This cannot happen because as a lord he does not stand for re-election to the commons unless he reliquishes his title. If Labour lose he will just go to the opposition benches in the Lords.
The PO should be sold enmasse and be subject to normal competition circumstances like every other postal company.
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Comment number 53.
At 2nd Jul 2009, Philip Goodband wrote:The public sector pension protection, not just Royal mail, is now grossly unfair to those of us who have worked and contributed for decades and now see our funds diminished by Gordon Brown's raid and the economic crunch. I hope the next Conservative gov't has the will to deal, as Maggie did, with the Union power which is blocking action currently.
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Comment number 54.
At 2nd Jul 2009, SSnotbanned wrote:#63 elsewhere:When i say Plan b may be to ''franchise'' i should clarify this as the RM franchised to the workers at each delivery office/sorting office e.t.c.,not an outside business like TNT.
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Comment number 55.
At 2nd Jul 2009, VentilatorBlues wrote:Now all that's left is just the small matter of divesting of its teensy £10 billion pension provision.
That was the only reason it was going to be sold and like all the problems that have surfaced since mid-2007 in the economy this is just another one being put off for settlement down the line.
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Comment number 56.
At 2nd Jul 2009, EuroSider wrote:Robert,
Exactly right.
The sale (or not) of the Royal Mail has everything to do with politics and relatively little to do with the economy.
The government must face a general election in the next 12 months. The public do not want to see this sale to the private sector go ahead.
Mandleson, always the master of spin, knows this. So conveniently the economic situation is not right, therefore the government will withdraw the sale.
Whew!! Another bad headline on the 91Èȱ¬'s 6 o'clock news avoided!
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Comment number 57.
At 2nd Jul 2009, MrManj wrote:"1. At 5:02pm on 01 Jul 2009, writingsonthewall wrote:
If they sell off Royal mail I want you to keep this blog as a record so in 15 years time when the Government is re-nationalising it I can say.
I TOLD YOU SO."
Just out of personal interest. I'm not saying it is a good move but if RM is sold off and, say, 15 years down the line it transpires that it was a good move would you come back to Robert and admit you were wrong?
We have plenty of people in the UK bashing others' opinions and actions but very few that comment when things go right
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Comment number 58.
At 2nd Jul 2009, whereofwecannotspeak wrote:Part privatisation was a silly idea and it's a relief that Labour back benchers have put paid to that. However, neither the problem of Royal Mail nor the wider problem of the cost of public sector pensions will go away so easily.
So far as Royal Mail goes, surely the solution is the abandonment of the present version of the universal service? How many of us would even notice if mail was only delivered every other day (or even once a week)? If Royal Mail was permitted to deliver mail less frequently outside core city areas, its costs would fall dramatically, its profits would rise and it would be able to plug the hole in its pension scheme.
Admittedly, there would be a few tricky issues to resolve (fewer jobs, although hopefully better paid ones, VAT would probably also have to be charged under European law), but they are not insurmountable. Ministers should spend more of their time grappling with the real problems of trying to deliver public services which meet current needs rather than looking for quick financial and PR fixes of the sort so beloved of the Treasury (surely our least competent government department?).
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Comment number 59.
At 2nd Jul 2009, paul4u wrote:#55 the seeds of most of the issues (as I see it) that are coming to fruit (bitter fruit) were sown way back in the 1970's, high inflation due to OPEC and oil prices, Ted Heath's deal with oil companies and North Sea oil, grey suited union activists/trouble makers who came over with rather unrealistic demands at the time, makes me wonder just who they represented? I conclude, North Sea Oil revenue came on tap around 1981, what came after was a feeding fenzy and the brave new world of finance in the City of London, wholesale privatisation and asset stripping, neglect of infrustructure and essential services, the list goes on and on. New Labour has done some things to redress those issues but like moving into a neglected house with little or no furniture it takes a grand effort to make the place habitable. I am no great fan of New Labour, there is a lot I am not happy about but I know perfectly well that New Labour did not win the election from the Conservatives, it was the Conservatives people had had enough of. The electorate were hoping for a Labour Government not a New Labour government.
Mrs Thatcher's first move in Government was to loosen credit control, the result being wasted oil revenue and a credit boom. It is interesting to note that North Sea Oil peaked some time ago, about the same time the Conservatives lost interest in politics. Today all the old faces are crawling out of the woodwork (setting aside lucrative directorships)knowing that the Conservative are going to win the next election, I just wonder who they will represent when elected?
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Comment number 60.
At 2nd Jul 2009, chris4454 wrote:So "Meddlesome" proves to be a political animal. Shock horror!! Who would have believed it?!
I'm sure he isn't a halfwit cast among nowits, which is the other alternative.
Anyway stop knocking our Sub Prime Minister, the Great Gordo; we want him to be there when the General Election is eventually held.I can't wait.
Yours
A True Blue
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Comment number 61.
At 2nd Jul 2009, anthonylilley wrote:Robert,
Have you seen this article?
Have you covered this area before?
Would be interested in your take...
China's dollar hegemony etc.
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Comment number 62.
At 2nd Jul 2009, Chazza wrote:The Post Office is an essential public service and I for one do require a daily delivery and collection. Email is a 2-edged sword: it reduces the volume of letter post, but, with the rise of on-line shopping, it does - or could - increase the volume of parcel post. The problem is that, in order to favour private sector operators, Parcel Force was hived off from Royal Mail and now offers a poor service in competition with numerous others. The sensible thing to do would be to re-integrate Parcel Force with the Post Office. If that means telling the EC competition monitors to get lost, so be it.
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Comment number 63.
At 2nd Jul 2009, Whistling Neil wrote:52.andyunlimited wrote:
"The PO should be sold enmasse and be subject to normal competition circumstances like every other postal company."
Part of the problem is that it is not like every other postal company in the UK, there aren't any like the Royal Mail.
It is the only one which is obliged to offer door to door deliveries to every single address in the UK. (no other is prepared to do this - even with courier services there are limitations)
It is the only postal company obliged to deliver competitors "letters" at a pre-ordained and below cost price (i.e.the market was fixed in favour of competitors).
So it is not subject to 'normal' competition and as a basic service, an enabler of the wider economy, neither should it or can it.
This does not mean it should not be efficiently run and nor where appropriate subject to free and fair competition (e.g. parcel, courier and express services).
If the competition is not obliged to offer the same service then it is not competition.
After all, could you ever countenance the news that door to door postal deliveries will cease because Royal Mail has gone bust (at least in the next decade or 2)? Either way we get to pick up the tab as taxpayer - either through the pensions protection fund or as the owner of last resort. We will always end up paying for it directly or indirectly.
So just like the banks are too big to be left to fail - the Royal Mail is too important a service to not be there, so it has to be treated as a special case.
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Comment number 64.
At 2nd Jul 2009, writingsonthewall wrote:#44 mkerry13
Spoken like a true bitter private sector worker who has been screwed over all their lives.
Do you really think you will find satisfation in laughing at others mis-fortune?
The public sector worker generally has to put up with worse pay than the private sector - in return they are supposed to get more stability and reliability with their job. To take away the reliability makes the public sector very unappealing (despite the jealous calls from the private sector). Generally only the very top people in both private and public actually get paid a lot - but it's all the grunts at the bottom who argue tit for tat about who gets the better deal.
Don't worry - I'm sure the private sector will be happy when they have to pay for private education / healthcare / security etc because all the public sector left.
We'll see who's 'boss cares' then when you go grovelling to yours to ask for an extra 3k a year to put your son through college.
I am never unsurprised by how people are so quick to cut off their nose to spite their face.
...and before you make the wrong assumption - I have worked in the private sector all my life - however I have eyes to see, ears with which to hear and the ability to communicate with people who work in the public sector - and I am not so foolish to write off their value so flippantly.
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Comment number 65.
At 2nd Jul 2009, Tyto alba wrote:It is a bit rich of the Tories to go on about the pension black holee - given that it was they who allowed companies to take pension holidays when times were godo on the stock market - forgetting the mantra about markets going up and down.
What I don't understand is, how will selling Royal Mail off make the pension deficit disappear unless they are going to allow the new owners to ditch their responsibility to the workforce, which would be illegal under TUPE?
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Comment number 66.
At 2nd Jul 2009, writingsonthewall wrote:Here's a novel idea - instead of selling off parts of Royal mail - HOW ABOUT FIXING IT.
The Government is the only one around with money at the moment, and with the falling labour costs and increasing redundancies they could easily massively improve the efficiency of RM over the summer.
We have known E-mail would replace ordinary mail one day - we knew that it 1982. Why don't the post office embrace it rather than fighting it.
Keep the Post offices open - provide internet access - start a Royal mail web acocunt where you can either email or simpy type up a letter and the PO print it and send it for you (if you prefer the old fashioned method). The old ladies of this country would much rather use E-mail provided by RM than Google (they don't know what a Google is!)
Replace all the vans with bikes (where possible) and any remaining vehicles with LPG (only 50p a litre). Make use of the existing HUB network which is unique to RM (nobody is as big or as wide ranging) and take on parcels from couriers for the remote places (for a sub-contracted price).
Before you know it you will have the best mail service in the world which no private company can compete. Make a deal with the unions - working for RM means better job security - but in return they sign up to be 'servants of the state' - like lordships, only not available through bribing. Increased service increases the awards - and why not have the Queen handing out some medals - after all it's her service.
I'm sure most people would agree that their local postman is more desrving of a 'royal honour' than 'Sir Fred Goodwin' or 'Lord Archer' or 'Lord Brockett' - or maybe 'Lord Adonis' or maybe 'Sir Alan Stamford' (although I'mnot 100% sure that's real) - the list is endless....
Make the job something to be proud of and all the pay headaches go away.
Finally transfer what you can from the F.S.pension into a private one and pay off those who can't or won't transfer in a one off deal.
You still have all the unique services (like passports, driving licenses etc) which no-one else can offer. You can even get rid of the age old post office queue with one of those 'fast ticket' systems they have at EuroDisney.
All it needs is someone who WANTS to solve the problems - what we have is a set of people who simply want to say it's too hard and give up - pathetic looser attitude
If the Government intends to sell it to the private sector - they are implying that the issues can be resolved (otherwise it's worthless and nobody would be interested) - so why doesn't the Government do it?
Don't let some wig-wam fool who used to work for the FA manage it - he has no empathy with the post office workers and simply alienates them. Someone who has worked in the business, or simply someone who doesn't interpret 'efficiency' as 'cutting jobs' - which seems to be the bounds of some CEO's creative thinking.
I'll do it if I'm offered the job - I'll do it for free because it's good for my country - and most importantly it's been said that "it can't be done"
....if there ever was a red rag to a bull....
Loosers shirk challenges - Winners go hunting them to face them down. At the moment the Government is looking like it's got a looser attitude - and so are the opposition.
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Comment number 67.
At 2nd Jul 2009, truths33k3r wrote:I see that the postal workers are threatening to strike because of moves to modernise the Post Office - no change there then.
"tough on socialists - tough on the causes of socialism"
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Comment number 68.
At 2nd Jul 2009, writingsonthewall wrote:#57 MrManj
Of course I would - it wouldn't be the first time and I'm not a politican so I don't have a problem with admitting when I'm wrong.
However history is on my side on this (I'm not taking a wild bet) because there hasn't been a successful privatisation yet. Sure if you simply look at the financials there are several - however if you look at the resulting service and cost to the public or consumer - then they have all been total failures.
Just to remind you.
Rail travel - Gone up by more than inflation, service as bad as 1950 for punctuality, reliability etc. as reported last year. This is despite the fiddling of the figures (did you know a train which is very late often misses out stops and does not register as being late).
Utilities - Record fines on the water suppliers for shafting the consumer, electric / gas pricing, more people in fuel poverty now than ever before (well possibly not since Victorian times). No coherent move to renewable energy. Massive increase in bottled water sales (because if you live in the Thames area it tastes like pee water)
BT / telecoms - Worst service provider, only still surviving due to monopolistic position, delays over the unbundling of exchange loops, countless failures to allow access to third party providers to the exchanges. A broadband
BA - well if it makes it to the end of the year without more public money - then Gordon Brown will win the next election by a landslide! On top of that the last time I flew BA we did 'an emergency stop' on the runway taking off (which is a bit nerve racking) - because A WINDOW IN THE COCKPIT WAS OPEN! I have never stepped foot on a BA plane again.
In all these cases the private companies involved all made heaps of money and the cost was bourne by the consumer. IT'S LIKE TAXATION BUT NONE OF YOU CAN SEE IT - except none of the money goes to the Government, it goes in the pockets and Rollers of the CEO's.
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Comment number 69.
At 2nd Jul 2009, John wrote:Mandelson has taken his recalcitrant back-benchers by the scruff of the neck and forced them to look into the pensions abyss.
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Comment number 70.
At 2nd Jul 2009, stevie wrote:Surely at this time we should look to the Tory strategy for privatising the railways, their strategy was to run it down so much whilst claiming the old mantra that of course private industry was more efficient. What then ensued was years of proping up the private rail companies by paying them to keep unprofitable lines open probably costing the tax payer more than if it had been properly managed under state control. So why is this not the right strategy for the Post office? Well for one we can see that private business is not that cleaver at running things in the era of depressed margins so we see banks, carmakers etc. going broke and worst of all renaging on their pension scheme commitments because they took large pension holidays (encouraged by the Thatcher Government) in the late 1980's. Why don't people just look at how poor private business actually is? Maybe there is a roll for a new look at state management of public utilities and perhaps Mandelsson understands that beter than all of the media pundits and legends in their own lunchtimes who actually get very little right and of course are not ever held to account.
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Comment number 71.
At 2nd Jul 2009, joeblogger wrote:It's just such shame that the the nature of his chosen career (or should I rather say one of his chosen careers) constrains Mandelson to use his genuine talents and skills to manipulate and beguile vulnerable voters.I believe the man is intellectually brilliant but that he does not have a decent or honest political bone in his body.I believe he is deceptive and deflective.He manages to try to turn every New Labour self inflicted difficulty into a positive for them.He and Blair it seems contrived to set up New Labour as an alternative capitalist, social engineering and economy besotted Party which in Government has entirely forgotten its moral and ethical roots until now, the time of reckoning when the bedrock of Labour voters is finally exasperated with the plotting and counter plotting a year before the next election. Brown has 'jumped into bed with the devil' to retain the support of his backbenchers and the decision to 'postpone' the privatisation by stealth of the Post Office is one of many u turns due to take place in the near future.
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Comment number 72.
At 2nd Jul 2009, gamjen wrote:Why would anyone want to pick up that Pension black hole unless the Post Office was for sale @ Blackhole + £100.00 say.
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Comment number 73.
At 2nd Jul 2009, applescan wrote:Even Mandelson can't make the backbench Labour MP's accept this one. Brown would be out on his ear if he tries to push it through and he knows it. Too many Labour MP's already facing a wipe out would see this as the final nail in their coffins. Purely for Brown's self preservation, that's why this has been shelved. The black hole in the RM pensions will no doubt be foisted onto the tax payer, many of whom are in the private sector with no pensions or indeed pensions which were decimated by Brown and who will now be expected to pay the generous pensions enjoyed by the RM and of course all the other public sector pensions MP's included. Another lie from Brownocio and his master puppeteer!
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Comment number 74.
At 2nd Jul 2009, talkinghorse wrote:#67 I see that the postal workers are threatening to strike because of moves to modernise the Post Office - no change there then.
dont believe RM management propaganda on this. The main issue is not modernisation but a unilateral cut in London waiting allowance.
Any statement about the CWU fighting modernisation is management BS. What has actually happened is that the last negociated agreement called Pay and major change called for joint working groups to be established to discuss and make findings for presentation to both managment and union about modernising the industry.
What actually happened is that management just pushed their own panic stricken and ill thought out ideas onto the workforce with no consultation or indeed contact with reality.
We (postalworkers) understand that change is neccessary. Jobs will inevitably go. Workloads will increase. However, this must be done in a logical and consistent manner. In the last three or four years we have been told "you will get new uniforms" all we got was new style boots which fell to pieces in weeks. "We will take the weight off your shoulders with new trollies,bikes etc." We have now been told a new delivery system will be implemented which will depend on working from delivery pouches(on shoulder carrying devices)from the back of a van.
As i said in a previous post even the sorting machines they want to bring in don't work as well as first thought.
I will say it again IT'S NOT THE WORKERS WHO ARE THE PROBLEM
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Comment number 75.
At 2nd Jul 2009, mkerry13 wrote:#64
"The public sector worker generally has to put up with worse pay than the private sector - in return they are supposed to get more stability and reliability with their job."
Complete tosh. This is 2009 not 1966 . That old argument has gone out the window long ago. Today they get decent pay and stability and plenty of perks. Private sector get little or no stability, the fabulous opportunity to fund the public sector, civil servants and our wonderful politicians and the certainty that yes we will get screwed over time and time again. So please dont tell me that public sector life is hard.As for valuing their contribution of course we do but you know what how about valuing the private sector who actually create the wealth that funds the public sector.
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Comment number 76.
At 2nd Jul 2009, telecasterdave wrote:It was not so long ago that Mandleson was going to sell off part of the Royal Mail. The market conditions were as bad then as they are now.
Mandleson is not telling the truth. The truth is that he and his assistant Brown do not want to upset the labour backbenchers.
Mandleson and Brown and the other ministers continue to lie, they are a joke.
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Comment number 77.
At 2nd Jul 2009, 2trueblue wrote:M is for meddler, and also for Mandelson. This matter has been shelved not because Mandleson thinks they will ot get it through and the markets coincidentaly are not great. I am fed up with the continued banal utterances from Mamdleson and his ilk. This is a man who has been found wanting whilst in government twice already, and is now only there because Gordon is desperate to stay in power. If we had had an unbiased 91Èȱ¬ and some good journalists around in the past 12 years this government would have been properly challenged and have to account properly for their actions. The media are in awe of Mandelson. Why? This man has been found wanting twice and lost his post so why are people in awe of him? Ah hes clever. So what, he is not on the side of democracy.
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Comment number 78.
At 3rd Jul 2009, Janusagain wrote:Sorry to refer you to the railways again, after your efforts yesterday. But market forces seem to be limiting Mandelson's options there too. (I presume he is also responsible for transport policy?) As with the banks, the taxpayer picks up the tab for failure. And it won't be long before the PO goes bust again - at our expense again.
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Comment number 79.
At 5th Jul 2009, hack-round wrote:Ref post72
No one wants to pick up a pension black-hole and the government will sell at a fair market price say six billion. The buyer will fund this through the banks (who are backed by tax payer guarantee) the government will use the money they receive to fund all the public expenditure they have no money for but have promised.
.
The buyer of the Post Office will be guaranteed that the black-hole will be filled by the government over the next five years which means us the taxpayers will fill it and the buyer is guaranteed if they cant make a go of it the government will take it back into public ownership.
In the meantime the private sector through the banks (our taxpayer guarantee) will have paid for the investment, modernisation and rationalisation that need to be done.
The private sector gets the blame for the jobs that go, the golden hellos and goodbyes. Yes and the tax payer will pay the unemployment, retraining etc for those who loose their jobs.
There is only one fool in this arena the tax payer and most of the time he/she cant be bothered voting and has no interest in putting pen to paper and telling his/her MP or his/her government what they actually want their money to be used for
Funny world really, though not in a laughing sort of way.
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Comment number 80.
At 5th Jul 2009, hack-round wrote:Sorry forgot to mention above that the Mandelsson, politician, was so busy counting his expenses and advising his colleagues that he forgot that in recession this one especially the banks will not lend.
Tax revenues are dwindling because of the unemployment sponge (thats no one unemployed but no one earning enough to pay taxes except a few bankers but they pay taxes in Jersey or Liechtenstein).
I wonder which day hes going to say sorry GB you know when I said no cuts well I can not get the money from the banks and after all we did for them too.
So sorry prime Minister your going to have o say no cut really meant not many, well not too many, well really quirt a few, well really quite a lot but never mind you wont be in government any way. Now GB please do not cry, it is not as if any one voted for you anyway. Come to think of it they did not vote for me either.
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