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Foley fallout

• Nick Miles
• 12 Oct 06, 05:27 PM

Politics is anything but predictable. Just a couple of weeks ago, the issue that most pundits and hacks thought would dominate the upcoming elections was .

Then came Foleygate, the Foley Affair, call it what you will - the lewd e-mails and messages sent by now ex-congressman James Foley to teenage boys. It is haunting Republicans. The is digging into which senior Republicans knew about it and what action they took, or failed to take.

Everybody it seems - but mostly politicians and journalists, of course - is trying to work out what impact this could have when voters go to the polls in November. Well, over the last few days the have come out since the scandal broke.

Republicans shouldn't read them before going to bed.

Take a poll by the Opinion Research Corporation. It asked voters whether the Foley matter has made them less likely to vote for Republican candidates for Congress this year. Almost a third said it had.

A Gallup poll revealed that more than half the people it questioned thought senior Republicans had sat on information about the Foley emails for political purposes.

Of course it's one thing to take the moral high ground when you're asked a direct question by a pollster. In the privacy of the polling booth, voters may take a more pragmatic line. Never forget that more than 90% of incumbents get re-elected and most people vote on local issues. We're all watching the polls but know they've got to be treated with a healthy degree of scepticism.

Nick Miles is a Washington correspondent for 91Èȱ¬ News.