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Heels dug in

• Mark Mardell
• 18 Oct 07, 10:34 PM

Victory to the Bulgarians! I hear that they have won their battle to have the word "euro" represented in Cyrillic script.

Some of you thought I was making light of this demand earlier. Not a bit of it. It seems perfectly sensible to me to be able to write your future currency the way you are used to. But it wasn't until a diplomat whipped out a tattered five-euro note that I realised that every note has the word in Latin and Greek script.

The Austrians have also settled, although I don't know what the deal was. But the Italians and Poles are digging in their heels.

The Portuguese foreign minister says there is a will to reach a deal tonight, but I am pessimistic about the prospect of reaching my bed at a reasonable time. Given that there is a general election in Poland this weekend, I cannot see that they will give in easily.

If the EU's leaders are kept waiting by the Poles it won't be a first. There was an ironic outburst of applause from some of the most powerful men and women in Europe as the Polish president turned up to the family photo - the rest of them had all trooped down together and had been waiting for 10 minutes or so.

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Low inflation

• Mark Mardell
• 18 Oct 07, 03:42 PM

are feeling deflated. Not by the prospect of Brown agreeing the - the hyperactive pressure group cum think tank's Lisbon stunt quite literally didn't get off the ground.

Their giant inflatable ballot box didn't inflate. The generator they'd hired didn't have enough puff. They swear it's not symbolic and will try later again in the day.

Meanwhile, Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso has said: "Of course, we regret that it was necessary to have some opt-outs for some countries. But we respect this. We prefer to have a solution that's broadly agreed, with some specific opt-outs for some countries, than not to move forward. Britain has negotiated very hard some opt-outs on some specific issues. Now we don't expect any more requests in that area."

He added: "We should respect these lines that were put forward by Britain, so I think there will be no more difficulties. I hope that we will have a consensus today or tomorrow on the Reform Treaty."

Gordon Brown is due to go to the meeting this afternoon before the summit proper opens - something Mr Blair never did as prime minister.

He might be glad to know that Socialist leader in the European Parliament Martin Schulz who's just said: "The papers owned by an Australian and a Canadian want to destroy the European Union."

BREAKING NEWS: Open Europe have got it up.

Their ballot box, that is.

And the Prime Minister's spokesman has conceded that Gordon Brown's talk about holding a referendum over the treaty if he vetoed it, didn't really make sense. But he said the treaty was necessary to make Europe work efficiently.

He declined to give detailed examples.

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Calm before the storm

• Mark Mardell
• 18 Oct 07, 12:31 AM

When Gordon Brown meets his fellow leaders in Lisbon it will be his first appearance on the European stage as prime minister. He鈥檚 got lovely weather for it.

The centre in Lisbon is a delightful combination of aircraft hangar, flying saucer and assorted right angles. He might as well try to enjoy it while it lasts. Because he knows many pundits and politicians are preparing to throw brickbats, not bouquets, when it鈥檚 all over.

He arrives around tea-time for the first session, which is due to last a couple of hours. Then the leaders go into dinner to continue discussions. I鈥檓 told Mr Brown thinks the can all be wrapped up by the time the petits fours arrive. You can tell it鈥檚 his first EU summit.

Navel-gazing

This hugely controversial treaty is the replacement for the European Constitution rejected by French and Dutch voters two years ago.

Supporters say it鈥檚 a set of modest rule changes to allow the European Union to work better, now the organisation is so much bigger. Critics say it鈥檚 a further extension of power to Brussels and an erosion of the nation state.

Among the main proposals:

• More cash, staff and a beefed-up role for the EU鈥檚 High Representative for foreign policy

• A new job of President of the Council in charge of running meetings like this one

• Dropping countries鈥� right to veto policies in scores of areas 鈥� many are technical, others include tourism and space policy

• A change in countries voting powers which the government says will give Britain slightly more clout

• A bigger role for the European Commission in the area of policing and justice, although Britain can choose not to take part

Like Mr Brown, hope it will all be wrapped up, if not signed and sealed, by the end of tonight鈥檚 dinner. But there are a few difficult issues to clear up and if they can鈥檛 reach agreement they鈥檒l scrap Friday鈥檚 planned session on the challenges of globalisation.

The prime minister of Portugal, Jose Socrates, has told his fellow leaders that reaching agreement on a final text is the challenge for the meeting and is of fundamental importance for Europe. Agreeing it, he says, will mean that Europe can concentrate on other issues and do so with more efficiency.

Mr Brown has written a letter to Mr Socrates agreeing that the Reform Treaty sets a framework that will ensure the enlarged EU can function well.

鈥淭his is the right time to bring to an end to this prolonged period of inward-looking institutional debate,鈥� he says.

Earlier this week, Foreign Secretary David Miliband told me that agreement would mean that Europe can stop 鈥渘avel-gazing about institutions鈥� and concentrate instead of things people care about, like cutting crime and economic competitiveness.

鈥淭hat means we will preserve Britain鈥檚 right to choose on key issues but also that we make sure Europe starts embracing a new agenda of issues like climate change that really matter to people.鈥�

So the line is clear.

Schmoozer

But shadow foreign secretary William Hague has warned: 鈥淕ordon Brown has absolutely no moral or democratic mandate to force through the renamed EU constitution without a referendum.鈥�

Tony Blair often found these meetings something of a chore, but he was a born schmoozer who saw himself as master negotiator (though some who worked with him wouldn鈥檛 agree).

Brown prides himself on being tougher and more rigorous than his predecessor but he鈥檚 not a born compromiser. As chancellor he was notoriously impatient with the slow grind of euro-politics, allegedly taking his headphones off ostentatiously while other lesser mortals spoke. (Maybe he is a better linguist that we realised and didn鈥檛 need the simultaneous translation. Somehow I doubt it.)

At Lisbon, he鈥檇 be wise to keep his headphones on, even though he might be tempted to remove them if the discussion on gets too intense.

I had half-expected Mr Brown to engineer an easily winnable row that he could sell as defending Britain鈥檚 interests, so he could come home, if not exactly in triumph, with something that could be portrayed as a British victory.

There is absolutely no sign that this is going to happen. British diplomats don鈥檛 expect it and neither does anyone else. It seems the strategy, such as it is, is to get it over with and weather the storm.

Back in Westminster, hacks may ask if he鈥檚 managed to safeguard his red lines, but people shouldn鈥檛 be under any illusions. The red lines are not under attack. No-one has suggested they should be changed, altered or amended. It is simply not on anyone鈥檚 agenda. British diplomats are quite clear that they are happy with the deal on the table.

Juggernaut

So if this turns out to be a nail-biting late-night summit it will almost certainly be other countries that create the drama.

The most serious issue may be the

The Poles are also still insisting that a complex formula on voting weights and powers to delay legislation is written into the treaty itself and not left in an annex.

Other issues may seem even more obscure, such as Austrian concerns about too many German students in their universities (and the Bulgarian worry about how the word 鈥渆uro鈥� is written).

But the atmosphere within the room for the next couple of days will be a restful Zen-like calm for Mr Brown, compared to the reception he can expect outside the hall after the meeting.

Already the think tank/pressure group is in town with an inflatable and gigantic ballot box, to demand a referendum. leader Nigel Farage is here too, eager to have his say.

Why is this treaty so controversial?

Partly because it鈥檚 a replacement for the European constitution, which was rejected by Dutch and French voters in referendums two years ago.

Critics, and indeed some fans, say it鈥檚 pretty much the same thing. They are right, in that nearly all the rule changes that were in that document will be in this one too.

They see it as a symbol that the EU goes in one direction like a juggernaut and won鈥檛 take No (or even two No's) for an answer.

The UK government (and the French and Dutch governments) argue that it鈥檚 not a constitution because it鈥檚 no longer called one, it doesn鈥檛 look like a constitution, references to flags and anthems are out and other linguistic changes have been rejected: the high representative won鈥檛 get to be called EU foreign minister, and EU directives won鈥檛 be re-christened 鈥渓aws鈥�.

Trickery and window-dressing, say the opponents.

They say Labour promised a referendum on the constitutional treaty and this is no different.

The government reply is that not only is it not a constitution, it is a different document for Britain than for the other 26 countries because of a series of opt-outs and clarifications. These are their 鈥渞ed lines鈥�.

Ministers argue these stop the European Union wandering into no-go areas like foreign policy, social security, the courts and policing, and stop the charter of fundamental rights effecting British law.

Mr Hague says: 鈥淭he foreign policy red line is meaningless, the criminal justice red line is already broken, the tax red line was only ever a con and the so-called opt-out from the damaging Charter of Fundamental Rights is the classic Maginot line because the European Court of Justice can just walk around it.鈥�

The dark side

But everybody expects this summit to result in an agreement.

And as I said above, Gordon Brown鈥檚 strategy appears to be put his head down, weather the storm, take the blows.

In Brussels, at least, people say with a sigh: 鈥淭his government won鈥檛 make the argument on Europe鈥�.

They mean that there will be no attempt to sell British involvement as a positive thing, rather than always going on about what has been stopped.

I suspect Mr Brown simply sees no advantage in talking about the EU: it incenses some voters, and leaves others cold.

But he doesn鈥檛 seem especially frightened of it as a political weapon either. Privately, senior figures are dismissive of the newspapers campaigning for a referendum, saying that more people declared their religion to be 鈥淛edi鈥� in the last census than signed

But the campaigners do see themselves as paladin battlers against the dark side, and their campaign will move up a gear after this weekend.

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