Growth motor, or cycle of decline?
Scottish Enterprise has never wanted for critics, and people thinking it should be killed off.
One of the more memorable suggestions was to scatter its budget across Scotland from a helicopter, with similar chances of success in growing the Scottish economy.
But when one of those critics is a respected former chief executive, who went on to lead an English development agency, it's obviously not an ideological objection to government intervention in the economy, nor someone with a grievance because his company hasn't been supported.
Robert Crawford's not saying the enterprise agency is failing in its job. He's saying that the job is the wrong one, and, anyway, its funding is insufficient for the challenge it faces.
This morning at Holyrood, where he's talking to MSPs considering the future of SE and Highlands and Islands Enterprise, he'll be saying it in pretty blunt terms.
"If we continue on the same path we will slip further and further behind the best performing regions and nations, and these days we are talking about Shanghai, Mumbai and Montreal, not simply London and the south-east," he's written in a submission to Holyrood's enterprise, energy and tourism committee.
"The truth is that we are not narrowing the growth gap with the best in the UK and are following further and further behind internationally. If we don't address this problem, we will lose even more of our best and brightest, and the cycle of decline will deepen."
Irrelevant targets
Having been chief operating officer of the south-east English development agency since 2008, he says one reason the whole system in England's being scrapped by the coalition UK government is because it's failed to close the growth rate gap between north and south. And he doesn't seem to have a problem with that.
In Scotland, where he headed SE from 2000 to 2004 - leaving because he was fed up with the intrusion of a high public and media profile into his family life - is there any evidence we're getting better at competing globally? No. And are the enterprise agencies likely to transform growth rates and competitiveness? No, to that too.
Grants and advisory services won't effect major economic change, he says, and nor do businesses need intensive support of the sort now on offer to about 2,000 of those judged to have the best growth potential.
For a man who stood for the SNP at last year's election, it's no surprise that he's persuaded of the case for fiscal autonomy. But he's not on-message for his party either.
He argues that the main SNP government targets for growing the economy - matching growth rates in the UK and by comparison with other small nations - were either so far off over the time horizon as to by "pretty irrelevant" or only achievable through the failure of others rather than the success of Scotland.
Picking winners
His argument concedes the unionist majority of the MSPs he'll be facing today. And a solution that could appeal to any of them - and is quite close to an idea already floated by Lib Dems - is that the enterprise agency budget of about £300m should be put into a public investment bank.
Its job would be to turn a profit for the taxpayer, and Crawford - whose career took him through the World Bank's private business development unit - believes it should plug gaps in the more conventional lending market by being more long-term and more engaged with company management.
The life science sector is one where short-term investment is a particular problem - though some pharmaceuticals investment is also of a higher risk profile than the taxpayer may be happy to take on.
Three pages summarising Crawford's thinking doesn't address that problem.
Scottish Enterprise already does some of this investment, with £32m in 106 businesses, bringing in £68m in private venture capital.
"That's good, but with the best will in the world, it will have virtually no impact on national economic growth," he suggests.
Would the whole of the enterprise budget, at roughly ten times that, do any better? And what is the track record of government picking winners, lending and taking stakes where commercial lenders fear to tread?
Having personally reassessed the role of government in the economy - and having done so radically - this a significant contribution to a very important debate, shifting it from Holyrood's familiar concerns with structures, and forcing MSPs, while in manifesto-writing mode, to start thinking differently.
Update: 20 January
One of my online chums has pointed out that Robert Crawford did not, after all, stand as an SNP candidate. My mistake, duly corrected, with apologies to those who feel affronted. It doesn't change any of the point being made, however.
Meanwhile, those now in charge at Scottish Enterprise have had a chance to defend themselves before the MSP committee.
Their take on Robert Crawford? Well, he's been out the country for a while, hasn't he, while Scotland's moved on?
And current chief executive Lena Wilson strongly refuted the idea that government grants don't work, but that SE is in the business of sharing risk.
"There's no single bullet to this," she said. "Would we like more investment finance in Scotland? Yes. Would this act in itself as an economic development model for Scotland? Absolutely not."
She went on: "Free-for-all grants don't work. Targeted grants absolutely do work. The Amazon project we saw creating 950 jobs wuold not have happened without an innovative form of grants, which came to no moer than 10 per cent of the overall cost of that building. Forty per cent of investors would not have considered Scotland if grants had not been available."
Grants also seem to be a key part of the continuing negotiations to seal a couple of deals for investment in Glasgow and Dundee with Gamesa, the Spanish wind turbine manufacturer.
Comment number 1.
At 12th Jan 2011, redrobb wrote:Can't comment on this particular individuls track record at the SE, I'm sure the £'s lure south was a major factor, is that not what captains of whatever industry particulary excell, I'm guessing the really good captains find a bolt hole abroad, did I read correct he's got banking experience, now this speaks volumes alone! The simple truth is this, to get global business to locate in Scotland as a preference, remove minimum wage barriers, tear-up all collective agreements via trade unions or worker forums, apply the lowest business tax rates in the world etc etc. Let all prospective business to free regulate themselves in all matters of working conditions, health & saftey indeed promise to negate any potential malpractice litigation. But you'd have to make sure any captains at the helm and their entourage of wanabees are paid aptly paid for their services....................
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Comment number 2.
At 12th Jan 2011, kaybraes wrote:Scottish Enterprise has over the years created many employment opportunities, most of them within their own organisation . It would be interesting to have figures showing how many companies, enabled or part financed by SE have survived more than a couple of years after their inception. Nowhere in Scotland I suspect is there a viable business which owes it's existence to the intervention of this organisation. There may be a few sandwich shops and two girl/man design centres, but in terms of real jobs, if there were any , the organisation would no doubt have told the world about them.
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Comment number 3.
At 12th Jan 2011, Ecksfreelunch wrote:Just to point out that Bob Crawford did not stand as an SNP candidate at the Westminster election last year. He stood down as a candidate in 2009 citing changed work commitments. He was replaced by local councillor Pat Gibson. This factual error is astonishing given the author's experience was in covering Scotttish politics before joining the 91Èȱ¬. A correction to the article would be in order although I won't hold my breath.
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Comment number 4.
At 12th Jan 2011, Wee-Scamp wrote:A very good friend of mine who worked for SE at the time suggested to their board that they should fire everyone apart from a small team of about five.
That team would meet once a year to pick a list of 20 companies or individuals with good ideas and send them all a cheque for £5m. Then they'd go home for the rest of the year.
Needless to say the board didn't go along with this idea.
The problem is pretty much as Crawford says. Investing £32m in 106 businesses alongside £68m in private venture capital achieves very little. On average that's less than £1m per company.
Given we have (alledgedly) two of the bigger banks and a whole host of other financial services companies in Scotland the fact we can only drum up £68m of venture capital is shameful. Oh and I know for a fact that some of that £68m came from Norway and other overseas VCs.
This is of course why bankers shouldn't be getting bonuses. Look at the comparison. An estimated £7bn to be paid in bonuses yet all that industry could come up with to support young companies in Scotland was £68m.
That simply isn't good enough.
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Comment number 5.
At 12th Jan 2011, kadok wrote:This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.
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Comment number 6.
At 13th Jan 2011, John Parker wrote:I think Robert is being a little harsh here! I do recall, when he first joined Scottish Enterprise, that he appointed a number of very senior people into new posts, creating an expanded and bloated hierarchy in the form of an Inverted Triangle. He was the one who expanded the hierarchy from four levels, (Director, Manager, Executive, Administrator), with a number of sub levels, (senior manager and senior exec, to denote larger roles), to Managing Director, Senior Operations Directors, Senior Directors, Directors, Senior Managers etc - making the organisation very top heavy and overblown. This inverted triangle, together with a series of bureaucratic measures imposed centrally and designed to measure and control rather than deliver, effectively hide bound the organisation and limited its delivery potential. Some of the best people left, unable to cope with the management style adopted at the very top and then the organisation was attacked at every turn whenever something went wrong, either from opposition politicians or the press.
If the question is, "Can economic development work?", the answer is a very strong Yes, as long as there are a number of important pieces in place. It has a good track record of success in a number of places around the world and there are documented successes achieved by Scottish Enterprise itself.
Can it work in the current environment? Now there, as they say, is a question!!!
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Comment number 7.
At 15th Jan 2011, Andrew Dundas wrote:There are two widely understood facts that we overlook when considering all regional agencies:
1. The largest costs to companies' added value and profits are their labour costs. Labour costs are far more important to investment decisions than the capital allowances and grants that governments provide. Whilst wage rates are highest in the South-East of England and in Scotland, labour costs there are offset by the generally higher levels of education of workers in those parts. Better educated workers are cheaper to train and acquire new skills more quickly. AS an illustration of this point, our 18 million neighbours in the three northern regions of England are generally not so well-educated, have lower productivities and - consequently - lower average earnings and new business start-ups.
2. Proximity to markets is also important across almost all categories. Here we are usually at a distinct disadvantage because Scotland is further from concentrations of customers than down South - especially London, which is a very cosmopolitan city these days.
Perhaps Enterprise Agencies waste too many of their resources competing with each other in provision of grants and soft loans? Maybe if they concentrated on human development and transport infrastructures they would stimulate more business opportunities?
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