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Final projections

Nick Robinson | 01:58 UK time, Friday, 2 May 2008

The 91Èȱ¬'s final calculation of the projected national share is now in and confirms that it is a very bad night for Labour and a very good one for the Tories:

Labour 24% - the worst figure in 40 years
Conservative 44% - 4% higher than last year
Lib Dem 25% - 1% lower than last year, 4% lower than 2004 BUT pushing Labour into second place

Expect Team Cameron to try to mount a tour of Southampton, Bury and Nuneaton tomorrow to show that he has won in the South, the North and the Midlands.

Expect Gordon Brown to be contrite, to promise to listen, to blame economic uncertainty and promise to weather the storms.

Expect Nick Clegg to find councils to visit such as Hull and St Albans to highlight where he has made progress.

NB. If you're just joining me, you might be interested in this brief guide to what I'm looking out for tonight.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    Really enjoying your blog and the radio4 coverage as I await the Reading result.

  • Comment number 2.

    Nick,

    Can someone put Vince Cable to bed - he looks as if he is having trouble keeping his eyes open!!!

  • Comment number 3.

    David Dimbleby is worth his weight in whatever he's paid in.

    Well done for pursuing the Milliband on Charles Clark's statement about Brown's team after Milliband had tried to shine it on.

    And well done on yourself not letting him get off the subject.

    I loved the fact that Milliband tried to shift the spotlight onto Caroline Spellman accusing her of being complaisant.

    She can be you berk... her party are winning!

  • Comment number 4.

    I'm really bored of Jeremy Vine's slots. I've seen the same few things several times over. They were mildly amusing the first time, but now are just boringly repetitive. Someone give him a bit more in his repertoire or just stop going to him. This is tedious stuff when everything else has been so good.

  • Comment number 5.

    Jeremy Vine.

    How has he gone from being a Newsnight presenter to doing these toe-curling interactive turns?

    Can't the production team give him something a little more dignified?

  • Comment number 6.

    Labour politicians keep saying "we must listen to what the voters are saying"

    I think the voters are saying "RESIGN"!

  • Comment number 7.

    'Final Projections' - isn't Labour in 3rd place on share of the vote?

  • Comment number 8.

    Where exactly have the Liberal Democrats done badly. Generally, in important areas, the Liberal Democrats have made strides forwards. I find it ver wierd that this is meant to be a "bad" result for the Liberal Democrats, according to your analysis, when in the areas where they have been campaigning hard, they have found numerous successes - it is mainly in councils where they hold only one or two seats that they have fallen back.

  • Comment number 9.

    I used to enjoy David Dimblesby election night, but not tonight, after about an hour or so I turned off and listened to it on Radio 4.... and what a relief, normally I would have watched til the early hours.

    Far too much chat and childish analysis and a Tessa Jowel giving the impression she lost a wad of ten pound notes.... why can't politicians just blurt the truth out instead of excuses - this is the very reason the Labour are losing seats all over the country.

    Perhaps the old style elections night and the swingometer was missing.

    It's Radio 4 next time for me unless things improves, sorry guys you've done your best I blame the producers.

  • Comment number 10.

    I have been on the ground in north London all day and have had a very different experience to the results being reported in the local elections elsewhere.

    We encountered some very angry Labour supporters, but we also met a large number of people who were strongly backing Labour as well as Ken.

    On the ground amongst undecided we are seeing something common in recent years. As all parties seem to broadly try to hit the same campaign points they say now more than ever they are confused because the parties seem to bicker over very little substance to gain headlines.

    We are in a political system in which all parties essentially agree about societal goods (i.e. all agree the Health Service is important and violent crime needs to be tackled) but party differences lie in the way that they propose to achieve these goals.

    We find it can be hard to articulate the differences in method proposed in our campaign literature especially locally when the material coming from the Conservatives is so vague and Boris is dominating opinion through The Evening Standards campaign, but with almost nothing to say.

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