91Èȱ¬

ON TOP OF THE FORTH BRIDGE: I am 361ft high above the Firth of Forth with the man who's riding high in the opinion polls. Alex Salmond is surveying the land which he hopes and believes he is about to govern. His dream - on the eve of the 300th anniversary of the Union - is that he will be the last mere First Minister of a Scotland whose economic, foreign and defence policies are set in London.

From where we are standing we can see the house of the Scot who's just weeks away from becoming the prime minister who will wield that power.

As he looks out at the Firth of Forth, Gordon Brown will reflect that Salmond could spoil not just his first few weeks but much of his time at the top.

Salmond says that, like Ken Livingstone in London, they'll learn to get along.

The polls have barely budged during this campaign. The question being asked by we election watchers is whether Salmond is like Blair in '97 - nothing can shift the electorate's settled will to give him power - or is he like Kinnock in '92 - the frontrunner who the public will pull back from backing once they take seriously the prospect of his being in power. I suspect the result may well be closer than many of the predictions.

Now it's too cold and too windy to write more from here!

UPDATE 1350 BST I have shocking news. It is a myth that they are always painting the Forth bridge! Apparently they expect the coat they're painting now to last 25 years .

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There was a story yesterday, or rather two related stories that generated little attention but tell us a lot about why Labour's poll ratings are at an all time low.

First, the health minister was booed and at Unison's conference. Then junior doctors broke into cheers in the gallery of the House of Commons (earning themselves a rebuke from the Speaker) for a speech by a Tory. That's right, a Tory.

Tony Blair has long complained that people's own experience of the NHS - which is generally good - is not matched by their perceptions that the NHS nationally is failing. He has tended to blame media reporting. What he's ignored is the fact that those who should be his ambassadors - the NHS's staff - are telling anyone who'll listen what a mess it is.

To hire thousands more nurses and doctors whose pay you increase substantially but who nevertheless attack you is quite an achievement. Gordon Brown knows that his first task when he takes over is to woo them, not the public.

A few weeks ago David Cameron was cheered when . It was, I'm told, the first time he thought that one day he might just become prime minister.

Why, you may be thinking, didn't I report this yesterday? My excuse is that I was at Old Trafford for a memorable night's football. Talking of which, can I share the fear that I have discussed with another Red, Newsnight's Michael Crick, that Tony Blair will announce his departure on the night of the title decider between United and Chelsea. He wouldn't choose that day to spite us would he??!!!

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"It's over". The words of one cabinet minister to me last night summed up the mood of the Blairites. Their dream of finding someone, anyone, to stop Gordon Brown is, most of them now believe, at an end.

Hold on, you may say, what about Charles Clarke? "Not a single member of the Cabinet will vote for him," I was told last night by that cabinet minister. Even those dubbed the "ultras" now say that they would rather have no contest at all than a contest based around an individual so well known for his contemptuous comments about the Chancellor. If they are going to lose to Gordon Brown they at least want to do it having tried to pin him down on policy rather than attack his personality.

What then of John Reid? Ah yes, say the Blairites, he's just the man. He's not afraid of Gordon, he's a Blairite to his fingertips (or should that be knuckles?) and he'd appeal to the electorate. This, of course, is to ignore the fact that he - like Brown - is Scottish; he - like Brown - is much older than David Cameron (Reid turns 60 next month) and he - like Brown - is not exactly the softly-spoken exponent of "the new politics" which so many Blairites say that Labour needs.

No matter. The real problem with Dr Reid is that, so far, he's not been ready to run and has done precious little to prepare a campaign. In private, as well as in public, he usually maintains his line that he'll decide when, and only when, there's a vacancy. He did say a little more - telling them he'd run only "as a last resort" if Mr Milliband couldn't be persuaded to do so. Reid may gamble that Brown will keep him in the job he designed for himself as Britain's Security Tsar in a 91Èȱ¬ Office shorn of responsibility for prisons, probation and other things for which he feels he gets the blame but can do little to change.

Friends suspect that even if he was up for a contest his wife may not be. A series of dinners for newspaper executives hosted by them both did not, apparently, do much to change her view. On the other hand John Reid belives that a contest would be good for his party and he has plenty to say - a year ago, before he was appointed home secretary, he was planning a series of big speeches on where next for Labour.

So it's over to you John.

PS: All of the above does not mean that a "coronation" is automatic. Charles Clarke's opposition to Trident may gain him left wing nominations to replace those of some Blairites who desert him. Leftwingers John McDonnell and Michael Meacher claim they are just a handful of votes away from gaining the 45 MPs necessary for nomination. A lot may depend on what the polls - of both party members and the public - say about the desirability of a contest. Supporters of the chancellor could always be permitted to "lend" their support to a candiadate for "a contest for the good of the party".

PPS: Sorry I never got round to blogging from Blackpool. The trip can be summed up briefly. Labour's traditional white working class supporters are very unhappy but it felt to me more like what we used to call "mid term blues" than a moment when the political earth is moving.

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Words can be terribly revealing particularly when uttered by someone like Tony Blair who's so careful and so skilled at deploying them.

Today at PMQs David Cameron picked up that David Miliband would not try to follow Tony Blair as Labour leader. "Will the PM now explicitly endorse the chancellor?" Cameron enquired. To which our departing leader replied "I will make my decision, (pause), I will make my statement at the time I decide to stand down". Decision, heh? So perhaps he's not yet made up his mind.

Lest you think this is the crazy petty fogging semantics I draw your attention to his answer to me at yesterday's news conference when I asked him for his advice to Mr Miliband. I don't give advice, he replied after a long pause, to someone "in that situation".

What could he have meant? I'll tell you. He meant the situation of someone agonising about whether to run.

There is, you see, a Miliband campaign waiting to roll. There is, as I reported yesterday, no Miliband to lead it.

PS You may have thought that yesterday's interview with the environment secretary left him "wiggle room" to announce he'd run at a later date. It did but at the moment I do not believe he'll exploit that wiggle room and neither do many of those who dearly wish he'd change his mind.

PPS I'm writing this on Blackpool Pier. I've come to sample the mood ahead of the local elections.

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After all that, sorry seems NOT to be the hardest word. The defence secretary's to the House of Commons did not contain the "s" word. Des Browne said instead that "I made a mistake". Under pressure from the Tories, however, he did finally if somewhat testily say, "if he wants me to say sorry I'm happy to say that".

The silence in which his statement was heard was only interrupted by cheers from the Labour benches. Liam Fox - for the Tories - called for him "to consider his position" - code for resign. There is now no chance of that.

Des Browne came to the Commons aware that he had the support of the chief of the defence staff and heads of the armed forces, the backing of the prime minister, healthy opinion poll ratings (which show only around a third of the public want him to go) and a great deal of solidarity from the Labour backbenches. Des Browne has proved that politicians can make mistakes and say sorry and still survive if they have few enemies waiting for them to fail. All he needs to worry about now is whether he still has the support of his friend, Gordon Brown.

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Edinburgh: "It's time".

So says the slogan which is staring at me off the cover of the Scottish National Party's manifesto. Dominating the front page is a picture of Alex Salmond in statesmanlike pose with not the merest hint of a smile on his face. The document has the look of a menswear catalogue. This is apt since the SNP have stopped trying to sell an idea - the case for Scottish independence - and are, instead, trying to sell a man.

Salmond says he'd take his orders from the Scottish people and lead "a real Scottish government" - in contrast, he implies, with a first minister who takes his orders from the government in London.

The question which hangs over this launch is 'what is it time for?'. Is it time for Scottish Independence? The polls show no sign of an appetite for it. What they do show an appetite for is to give Labour a good kicking.

This campaign, like every other one, will revolve around a clash between two arguments - "it's time for a change" and "it's not the right time to take a risk on the future". The consequences of Scotland's choice will not just affect who is the next first minister and who forms the next Scottish government but all of us living in the UK.

If Scots decide it's time for Salmond and the SNP - as the polls suggest they will - they'll also be deciding it's time to take a first step on a long journey which could see the break up of Britain as we know it today.

P.S. Out of the window we hacks could just see the home of the Defence Secretary Des Browne, who must be wondering whether he'll soon have rather longer to spend there...

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Bong! . Bong! ITV says "it's got no plans". Bong! "No plans..." is what politicians say when something's leaked too early...

You'll find it hard to find anyone in broadcasting - and not just on the news side - who doesn't now believe that ITV was mad to kill off News at Ten. They also, you may recall, killed off the ITN branding. The 91Èȱ¬ could scarcely believe its luck, having been outgunned by its smaller rival for years.

Now ITV's new boss - until recently 91Èȱ¬'s old one - is said to want to bring back the old warhorse of TV news. A note of caution from one who, like Michael Grade, has worked for both sides. There is a big big difference between regretting the passing of News at Ten and talking about bringing it back.

There's an even bigger difference between talking about it and doing it.

I've no doubt that Michael Grade's talked about it - he's committed to news and it's just the sort of big gesture he'd love to make. Greg Dyke - who dreamed of taking over ITV after being ousted from the 91Èȱ¬ - talked in somewhat colourful language about what he'd do to the 91Èȱ¬'s Ten O'Clock News given half the chance. Equally, I've no doubt that the kings of TV channels - the schedulers and the market researchers - will tell Grade why it can't be done. What about those long dramas, those live footie games, the threat that Channel 4 will put Big Brother 26 up against News at Ten?

And what's my view now I work for the other side? Bring it on. Competition is as good for journalism as it is for so much else.

P.S. A thought provoking piece about how to improve the blog-alogue by Jonathan Freedland . I agree with his concerns, and his hopes that a solution can be found to reduce the anonymous testosterone-driven insults that too often spoil what could be a great place for debate.

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Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum. Ever since Tony Blair was forced to declare that this would be his last year in office many of those closest to him (tho' by no means all) - aided by many in the media - have searched for a candidate to run against Gordon Brown.

First Alan Johnson was tipped to be ABG. Then John Reid. Their campaigns never took off and now, despite their Herculean efforts, the Mili-band wagon refuses to roll. No matter that there is, as yet, no credible Anyone But Gordon candidate, the Stop Gordon campaign is running in any event.

So it is that a minute of a decision taken 10 years ago is being used to highlight Gordon Brown's alleged flaws. The opposition are delighted to be presented with this open goal and the chance to re-open a controversy they tried but failed to get going a decade ago.

Meantime, many in the Labour Party despair at seeing their next leader damaged day after day whilst the "stop Gordon" crowd refuse to spell out what, let alone who, is the alternative. Unless, of course, Charles Clarke has other plans?

P.S. Talking of vacuums, there will be one on this blog until after Easter as I am enjoying the lull before the political storm to come. If you're getting one, have a good break

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