Over to you John
"It's over". The words of one cabinet minister to me last night summed up the mood of the Blairites. Their dream of finding someone, anyone, to stop Gordon Brown is, most of them now believe, at an end.
Hold on, you may say, what about Charles Clarke? "Not a single member of the Cabinet will vote for him," I was told last night by that cabinet minister. Even those dubbed the "ultras" now say that they would rather have no contest at all than a contest based around an individual so well known for his contemptuous comments about the Chancellor. If they are going to lose to Gordon Brown they at least want to do it having tried to pin him down on policy rather than attack his personality.
What then of John Reid? Ah yes, say the Blairites, he's just the man. He's not afraid of Gordon, he's a Blairite to his fingertips (or should that be knuckles?) and he'd appeal to the electorate. This, of course, is to ignore the fact that he - like Brown - is Scottish; he - like Brown - is much older than David Cameron (Reid turns 60 next month) and he - like Brown - is not exactly the softly-spoken exponent of "the new politics" which so many Blairites say that Labour needs.
No matter. The real problem with Dr Reid is that, so far, he's not been ready to run and has done precious little to prepare a campaign. In private, as well as in public, he usually maintains his line that he'll decide when, and only when, there's a vacancy. He did say a little more - telling them he'd run only "as a last resort" if Mr Milliband couldn't be persuaded to do so. Reid may gamble that Brown will keep him in the job he designed for himself as Britain's Security Tsar in a 91Èȱ¬ Office shorn of responsibility for prisons, probation and other things for which he feels he gets the blame but can do little to change.
Friends suspect that even if he was up for a contest his wife may not be. A series of dinners for newspaper executives hosted by them both did not, apparently, do much to change her view. On the other hand John Reid belives that a contest would be good for his party and he has plenty to say - a year ago, before he was appointed home secretary, he was planning a series of big speeches on where next for Labour.
So it's over to you John.
PS: All of the above does not mean that a "coronation" is automatic. Charles Clarke's opposition to Trident may gain him left wing nominations to replace those of some Blairites who desert him. Leftwingers John McDonnell and Michael Meacher claim they are just a handful of votes away from gaining the 45 MPs necessary for nomination. A lot may depend on what the polls - of both party members and the public - say about the desirability of a contest. Supporters of the chancellor could always be permitted to "lend" their support to a candiadate for "a contest for the good of the party".
PPS: Sorry I never got round to blogging from Blackpool. The trip can be summed up briefly. Labour's traditional white working class supporters are very unhappy but it felt to me more like what we used to call "mid term blues" than a moment when the political earth is moving.
I'm 
Comments
Having watched the excellent recent 91Èȱ¬ show "Blair - The Inside Story", I found my last little pieces of support for Blair slipping away. But would the opposition be so wrong to call for a snap election if the inevitable happens? Can a country be mis-sold a leader? It'd be like buying a TV, getting it home, then 2 years later it turns into a microwave...
So Charles Clarke won't stand... but he might. There won't be a contest... but there might. John Reid won't stand either but...
It's good to see Labour are a decisive force in politics. Why can't somebody say 'I won't stand' and then later say 'I changed my mind.' Then we might start to respect politicians as human beings again.
Better to allow the public to decide their future leader rather than have politicians choose for us, I wonder what the outcome would be then...
If my reading of the best person for the job and the mood of the electorate is any good, then John Reid remains the main I’d like to see step into the role of Prime Minister when a vacancy does arise. Then there’s the issue of a single persuasive leader subverting Parliaments judgement for the best of reasons. We’ve seen it all before with the Iraq War. If the leadership is not contested another disaster may unfold.
John Reid has done a great job of helping the 91Èȱ¬ Office fix itself, and Margaret Beckett has played a strong role in resolving foreign affairs. People want to see Britain work and get along, both at home and abroad, and their record of recent delivery strongly suggests they’re capable. Their leadership on getting the job done and working with all stakeholders is pushing on an open door, and in times of the real occasional crisis nothing beats experience.
Leadership can be hard but my belief is that most people really want to be respected and loved. Like children, we all want to do something worthwhile and have the respect of out peers, whether you’re running a bluechip company or some loser stuck in a ghetto. Leading isn’t just about sticks, it’s about guiding and nurturing, and I see Uncle Reid and Auntie Beckett more suited to that than the wilful stepfather Gordon Brown.
Charles Clarke is a non-starter, as is David Blunkett. Both are arrogant men with short fuses, and do not have the temperament to hold the position of PM. John Reid is a non0-starter as well, since come the next general election he is almost certain to lose his seat, following the downgrading of Monklands A&E unit. Recent results have shown that when an independant candidate stands on health issues, not only do they win but they can retain the seat. Having a sitting PM ousted is unacceptable for any party.
So we are left with GB, since Milliband has the brains to wait until Gordon screws up before pouncing.
Labour must be running scared of a leadership election which would inevitably become bitter. Can you imagine the briefing against each other!?
The party may avoid a bloodbath, but Brown is not going to be a popular PM so they are only delaying the inevitable. Politics is showing the signs of 97 all over again.
I'm disappointed by the lack of mention that John McDonnell gets regarding the leadership contest - especially as he was the first to throw his hat into the ring.
Although the first step in Informing and Enlightening into the contest would probably be to get his name right.
Personally, talking of a "contest" between the interchangeable Blair old boys is missing out the key Old Labour vs. New Labour decision.
Nick - is there anyone (apart from David Cameron, that is) who actually WANTS Gordon Brown as PM..?
#4: John Reid has done a great job of helping the 91Èȱ¬ Office fix itself, and Margaret Beckett has played a strong role in resolving foreign affairs.
I'm not sure that there's a single word in this sentence that isn't utterly laughable: the 91Èȱ¬ Office has imploded in five different dimensions and Reid is clearly cutting off the bits that will make him look bad and keeping the bits that let him look like a rottweiler. We haven't had a competent 91Èȱ¬ Secretary since Douglas Hurd (and even then I'm willing to be corrected - I only list him because I can't remember him doing anything spectacularly stupid, unlike the roll-call of New Labour 91Èȱ¬ Secretaries: Straw, Blunkett, Clarke and now Reid).
There are simply no intellectual heavyweights available to this government besides Brown. He's the only one approaching having his head screwed on properly - that's why anyone with any sense wants to see him as the next PM.
The younger bucks are not ready yet, if they ever will be. My hunch is that David Miliband will turn out to be a dud, and that Hilary Benn has "too much of his father in him" to really succeed in the distasteful world of modern politics. (That's a compliment)
The only reason the political earth isn't moving is because there is no prospect of a General Election.
Methinks the tectonic plates have shifted a long way already, give it a month or two for middle England to start squealing at their mortgage rises is and there will be a political tsunami. Gordon Brown's economic miracle is close to imploding, he cannot possibly borrow any more money,(without breaking his golden rule)....(broken already but rejigged to claim it wasn't)) so its cuts or tax increases on top of mortgage and council tax rises and wage restraint. it's just a question of when not if.
John Reid won't stand for the Labour leadership because of his wife?!! Is this the kind of soft touch we want in charge of Britain's security?
I'll emigrate the day John Reid -- a flip-flopping thug who now defends right-wing NeoConservatism with the same passion he once championed the USSR -- becomes PM.
The more I read about Blairs leaving and Browns new leadership,the more I get a profound sense of despair within the Labour Government.No one wants to actually challenge and take the job on as they see it as a poisoned chalice.Poisoned by Mr.Blair.They do not see away out of their own difficulties as they have always supported Blair for their own self interest.
What ever they do,they see themselves doomed,the May local elections will show them the way.All they can do is hold on and hope that either Brown will be a relavation and lead them to the promised land of re-election or that a miracle comes to their aid.Somehow I do not see either coming.
Why do I get the impression that we are talking about a political team that is playing the last minutes of a game after having used most of the extra players? The original players that are not dead, have been demoted or have left in anger. Many of the most capable players left to be used as substitutes happen to be also amongst the most vocipherous opponents. There is little room for changes.
I sincerely hope that Gordon Brown will consign the disloyal Mr Reid to the dustbin of history where he truly belongs;how on earth did a man with so little ability climb so high?
John Reid will only stand if he thinks he will lose his job under Gordon Brown.Charles Clarke is generally regarded as a joke,as are the left wingers.None of them stand a snowwballs chance in hell of beating bROWN ANYWAY.Yes we can safely assume that Gordon Brown will indeed be sworn in as Prime Minister on monday july 2.And whats more,if Blair think's that Brown will feel obliged to continue his policies ,he's in for a big shock!
I would leave the country if Reid became PM.
Given current environmental issues, I would love to see the return of Meacher to government - possibly a UK Al Gore? He cares passionately about the environment, which is a growing concern among the 18-30 age group (of which I am a member).
He has the potential to capture the imagination of a generation which he didn't before, because he was before his time. However, he would need some good advisers as his profile is too low.
Please, not the current crop of dinosaurs being touted as ABG though...
Er, John Reid? Popular? Likely to persuade people to vote for a 'credible, confident Labour party'? If Reid were to stand and - by some fluke - actually won, David Cameron would be turning sommersaults of joy all over Westminster.
What Labour needs to find in order to woo the British electorate is a leader unsullied by association with the Blairite style, with the spectacular policy and project failures of recent years, or with the sleazier aspects of the government's behaviour. Sadly for Labour, that leaves few on the front bench as candidates.
The successful 'anyone but Gordon' candidate can be Scots, Welsh, English, black, white, able-bodied or disabled, 25 or 60, living in Hampstead or Bradford or rural Devon, a multimillionaire business tycoon or someone with coal dust under the nails from being lately down't pit...but whoever they choose must be unsullied by the taint of association with the latest period of sleazy, spin-dominated, ineffectual and ineffective government served up by the government.
Blair's error has been to become a conviction leader after having been elected as an antidote to conviction politics. Whoever can find again the 'spirit of 1997' - the hopeful, competent, 'whiter-than-white' promise of a party which many who didn't vote for them (like me) at least recognised - will see off the Tories.
Reading these and other comments, is there someone that ANYONE wants to see become PM? That would actually be happy in voting for them? I'm new to looking at anything to do with politics, but what I've read so far frightens me. It seems that everyone who may or may NOT run that's getting coverage, gives reason for people to say things such as "I'd leave the country...." Is it any wonder kids have no interest in government or politics if all the public seem to do is bemoan everything to do with it??
Neanie, you have to realise that our politicians are greedy, selfish, short-sighted and mendacious. That makes them the second-worst group of people in the country.
The worst group combines all the above with terminal stupidity. It's usually called "the electorate".
Hi Nick.
With the state of affairs I am willing to wager that Lord Archer would be a better prospect as a Prime Minister.
By the way - I have just done a song about Blair and the NHS, it's gonna be a winner.
I think it will make you smile - certainly I am a staff nurse who is unemployed and my colleagues love it!
re 20
Nearnie, you may be new to reading about politics, but before you decry people saying they'd leave the country, it would be advisable to do a bit of research on our elected politicians.
You may not be old enough to remember the Sun's famous headline "would the last person leaving the UK turn out the light"
Cynicism about politicians is nothing new, mainly because they say one thing and then do the other.
You only have to remember Labours 1997 manifesto pledge not to introduce tuition fees,that were then introduced later with the raison d'etre that manifesto pledges only run for the lifetime of a Parliament.
If this isn't a good reason for mistrusting politicians, a bit of research will throw up countless other instances and all parties have at one time or another been guilty of dissembling but IMHO New Labour have turned this into an artform,a most unattractive artform at that.
Neanie is right. Nobody should want to be Prime Minister of the UK! After the absurd Major years we have had 10 years of government that sometimes borders upon insanity. If poor David Cameron ever does succeed to that post he will age rapidly as the task of cleaning out these stables would have defeated Hercules.
We have a hideous war or two on our hands, NHS staff in revolt, mushrooming crime [despite the statistics]. We also have the largest criminal population, in and out of jail of all time, uncontrolled illegal immigration, a vast increase in drug-taking and in street violence.
On top of that we have an ever-increasing tax burden but we can no longer undertake the basic society needs of refuse removal on a decent and regular basis.
How would any new government address those and the thousand other issues which I have not listed?
Prime Minister Gordon Brown a clone of Joseph Stalin? We'll see about that the first time he has to face down Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Iraniacs. Will he fold up like a cheap tent the way Tony Blair did? That's when we'll get to see what he's really made of.
I suspect the real reason no-one will stand against GB is that they know they can't win but all want (expect?) good cabinet jobs under him. They fear how vindictive he might be to anyone who dares oppose his coronation.
I sincerely hope John Reid doesn't throw his name in - he scored a classic own goal when he came up with the not fit for purpose moniker. On the bright side - judging by his unprecedented lack of popularity amongst the civil servants who have worked alongside him, I don't imagine he would last long enough in office to embarrass this country as much as his vain pr exercises embarrass his department.
There's only one thing for it. Tony Blair should run against Brown. He's the best Blairite candidate there is. I suspect he might win and if he did: well, he promised he'd serve a full third term. He'd just be keeping his promise!
Neanie,
Certainly not in the Labour camp; I hear Charles Kennedy's not as busy these days...
I have to go on better here - I am leaving the country on 29th June, simply because it's cheaper for me to go to university in Italy than it is here. Add in warmer weather, great food and friendly people (excepting the football hooligans, I'll avoid them) and I think I'm on to a winner.
With the leadership contest, I haven't seen anyone with the charisma, policies or nonce to match David Cameron or Tony Blair. In a perfect world David Milliband would stand against Gordon Brown (and win) but I think he's right not to this time round.
Just about every Blairite is resigned to the fact that GB will only take them through to the next election, when he'll lose. They're already thinking about how suitable Mr Milliband will be in a couple of years and how he'll drive labour forward. Good luck to the Brownites, they're gunna need it!