91Èȱ¬

That, then, is the choice facing Presbyterians next month. How is it likely to run? Fearless to a fault, I'll make a prediction. Assuming that both candidates hold onto the presbyteries who supported them this time round, Hamilton will win the support of North Belfast, Carrickfergus, Coleraine/Limavady, Dromore, and Dublin/Munster. By the same assumption, McAuley should hold Armagh, Ballymena, Newry, Omagh, and Tyrone. That's 5 votes each out of a total of 19.

I would expect that those presbyteries who supported Derek McKelvey will move to Norman Hamilton: Ards, East Belfast, South Belfast, and Monaghan. Norman McAuley is a member of Ards Presbytery, but he did not win his own presbytery's support last night, so it is unlikely that he will win it next month. (And, note: Norman McAuley was the only vote-winning candidate not to win the support of his own presbytery this year.) That would bring Norman Hamilton's total to 9 votes, one short of an overall majority.

Down gave its vote to Roy MacKay this year, probably because he is a member of that presbytery. It voted last year for Stafford Carson, which may suggest that it will vote for the more conservative candidate this time round. But Norman Hamilton is a moderate evangelical, as is Stafford Carson, so it's just as likely that Down will support Hamilton.

I'd expect Route and Iveagh presbyteries, which supported Ivan Patterson last night, to support Norman McAuley next month. They have a consistently conservative voting history. Templepatrick presbytery supported Patterson this time, but supported McKelvey last year, which suggests that it may be more comfortable with a moderate conservative like Norman Hamilton. Similarly, the newly combined presbytery of Derry/Donegal went to Patterson this year, but last year Derry/Strabane went to McKelvey and Donegal went to Hamilton, which suggests that Derry/Donegal could give Hamilton the tenth vote he needs to win the moderatorship.

So, the key 'open' presbyteries to watch next month are Down, Templepatrick and Derry/Donegal. If Norman Hamilton holds his current five presbyteries and wins the support of those who voted for Derek McKelvey last night, then just one of the key 'open' presbyteries would give him the majority.

An important caveat is that the historic voting patterns of presbyteries can be overturned at any meeting of a presbytery if there is a less than representative turn-out of ministers and elders. But assuming that presbyteries will vote next month much as they have done in previous elections, I expect that Norman Hamilton will be elected Moderator.