91Èȱ¬

but will it be cameron?

old tories make deals with the beardy tree huggers? i suspect they'd prefer to set the beagles on them?

The amount of votes Cable got is almost the same as the number that voted in those diddy Sunderland constituencies.

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Oh dear, my prediction (@1, two blogs ago) is looking remarkably prescient.

That we'll need another election to sort out the mess (postal vote fraud allegations, postal votes denied, polling station lockouts, insufficient ballot papers) and the impasse between the various blocs, is becoming increasing likely - I just cannot see that we can maintain a tight ship on the lines of the German coalition model. How long it takes could be a few months ("sell in May and go away").

At a time we need a strong Government to face down the threat of bond downgrading, we're faced with so much uncertainty.

Is that the sound of horsemen, or the IMF?

Zac Goldsmith would not have been dropped into that constituency without a clear expectation that he would win. I am sorry to have to say it but Susan Kramer is a typical example of the sort of personality the Liberal Democrats are fond of advancing. Such people lack gravitas. Overblown is a useful description.

I think this election lacked gravitas all the way through.

Don't talk about the deficit!

Don't talk about the debt!

Don't tell it how it is!

Where was the leadership?

Perhaps the view is that history doesn't happen in the UK.

Notable for anyone really keen on proportional representation, as I would presume most Greens are, I point out that the BNP got twice as many votes as The Greens and UKIP got 3 times as many.

So together, those who recognise that the EU is primarily a mechanism for transnational capital to exploit people - and were prepared to prioritise it in their voting, cast 6.5% of the votes just for these 2 anti EU parties, and there were additional Eurosceptic parties and votes too.

(By comparison The Greens got only 1% of the overall vote, and LESS than they did last time. They must be thanking the Green goddess for the ambiance of Brighton pavilion, a stronghold of No-Borders by the way, which is perhaps why Caroline Lucas, who has enjoyed privileged access to information on the international trade committee of the EU in addition to her privileged and well paid MEP posisiton all these years, has failed to inform the UK public about the secret opening to cheap labour going on at the trade level. Same as Mandelson)

I remind you that EU scepticism was the main challenge to established politics before the media refocused the public and effectively narrowed choices to 3 pro-EU, big business parties. The voting, in numbers if not in seats, shows that EU scepticism lives.

observations:

1. the country has a fully fragmented political pattern no longer capable of being described or understood by the simplicity of a national swing. evidence: the variation of swings from 20% + to Lib Dem to 15% Tory to 3% Labour as well as a more broad swing in southern England to Tory of 5 - 6% or so. Tory England against a nationalist/leftish Scotland and fully confused Wales.

2. despite the TV debates, Cleggmania, and the Presidential campaigns on TV the localism of results suggests that in rejecting the parties' meta-narratives voters have made very specific choices on a number of factors including incumbency, reputation/scandal, boundary changes, tactical voting to keep x or y out.

3. given the lack of a consistent narrative voters have not been able to be join a "national mood" as in 97 or 79 but rather have been forced to think carefully about their own constituency not knowing how the rest of the country would vote. unlike 97 when there was a national mood to "Trust Tony/Kick out the Tories" when everything was swept away in a huge tide of popular support, this time voters have maybe been forced to think far more deeply about what they truly believe, abandoning tribal loyalities in some places, voting tactically in others to keep the Tories/Labour out, wanting to believe in the Lib Dems but then getting cold feet re immigration/Euro/"wasted vote", and glory-hunters/floating voters forced to make a conscious decision, rather than see which way the wind is blowing and voting for the winning side.

4. the country did not make a decision but rather made a non-decision as it probably distrusts all parties to deliver a comprehensive vision. the political class has made a mess of creating a genuinely balanced economy over 35 yrs, made a mess of it's own house with the expenses scandal, and not been open about the decisions to come (for fear of being punished). so the public has said, you've made your bed, lie in it.

5. the concentration of wealth/aspiration to wealth and hope for prosperity through individual endeavor (Tory world view) is a predominantly southern England view. Very little evidence of economic hope elsewhere in UK. great swathes of the UK simply have lost all faith in the market to deliver either individual or national prosperity and the belief that opportunities exist for social mobility die out north of Watford. that we are the masters of our destinies is a dying belief and that powers beyond our control, either collectively (the left world view) or individually (the Thatcher striving C2s' world view) govern our lives and our country. however a significant minority (36%) DO hold that wealth creation, and happiness is possible through individual endeavor. a North-South divide not between Capitalists and Socialists, rather hope and hopelessness.

so what happened, Nick? All the guff about a hundred seats and you ended up with less than last time, you should be hiding in shame for a bad campaign yet you are kingmaker, sleepwalking to oblivion...hopefully..