91热爆

Hey,

It is my first time voting and im not entriely sure how the system works Ive been sort of learning as I go along. Im guessing after they reach option 15 then they just start awarding people in the order of who has the most votes?

MARK REPLIES: At these late stages you can get people deemed elected without having reached the quota if it's clear they are the last ones left standing...

Mark,
Agree it's been a pretty bad show for the UUP but do you not think they are quite likely to pick up lots more transfers than the DUP from other parties and therfore gain substantially as we get towards the last counts?

Its all the same predictable tribal politics really. The combined unionist vote has been 45 to 49 % the last 30years with nationalist creeping up slowly but surely. The usual NO rhetoric coming from Mr. Paisley is equally predictable.

Lets sit back and let direct misrule stealth tax us to the hilt and there is no point complaining cause we had our chance to change things.

When are the DUP going to grow up and respect to 41% + nationalist electorate they share this small piece of land with?

With 40 seats left to fill I've looked at each constituency to see who they are most likely to go to and I have 10 seats each for DUP and UUP, 8 for SDLP, 7 for SF, 4 for AP and 1 for GP. This would put the final tally at:

DUP 35
Sinn Fein 30
UUP 18
SDLP 16
Alliance 7
Greens 1
PUP 1

Compared to the 2003 Assembly elections there can be no doubt who the winners are - DUP & SF, and they both have done an excellent job in their strategies.

However, in NI a better guide is usually to measure each major election against the last one, in this case the 2005 Westminster election, and that reveals an interesting development, in that the DUP share of the vote has reduced from 33.7% in '05 to 30.1% in 07. That's actually a larger drop than the UUP vote (17.7% to 14.9%). Taking that as a guide the real winners are SF and Alliance.

But there's another interesting factor to note that should stop SF and DUP being too arrogant. Between them they won 56.3% of the vote but given that the turnout was only 63% it means that only 35% of the elecctorate voted for those 2 parties together. More people didn't vote than voted for them!

Doesn't that reflect the real challenge we face, encouraging many people who have pretty much given up hope? To see that 65% of the electorate didn't vote SF or DUP puts a whole other angle on these results and provides those two parties with the huge challenge of convincing many in NI that they are really up to the job of leading us.

Rather than the last person remaining gets the final sixth seat would it not be better to take the remaining candidates and votes and carve up the seats where the quota hasn't been reached by the national voting numbers? That would give parties that poll 2-3% across the country a chance of a seat, whereas now they will lose out in every constituency.

If the Northern Ireland Assembly were not getting paid a penny unless they resumed a power-sharing local government, how quickly would the Assembly be established? This election has made me sceptical. How can they change my perception of this whole situation?

Mark - can you tell us in which order the Parties will select Ministries if the numbers are 4 DUP, 3SF, 2 SDLP and 1 UUP?

Thanks!

Will the 91热爆 website be posting the full details of each count, rather than just the first preference votes?

watch this space . Money talks and if the taxpayers of Ireland and Great Britain put up enough loot the N. Ireland political fat-cats will talk to anyone. Rest assured that very little of the filthy lucre will filter down to the foot soldiers of the parties or the ordinary public.