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Who wants to be a billionaire?

• Mark Devenport
• 15 Mar 07, 11:24 AM

This morning's papers are full of talk about the 拢1 billion peace dividend. So does that mean our politicians have settled for one fiftieth of the 拢50 billion Gordon Brown offered last November? Or are they settling for one tenth of the 拢10 billion which Sinn Fein demanded over the course of the next decade? Have we got our hands on the cash destined for Irina Abramovich?

The problem in asking the Treasury for a bung is that, as last November showed, its economists are well equipped to run rings around you. When the Brown offer was boiled down the best guess was that 拢2 billion seemed to be relatively new, although some didn't agree on that.

Most of those I've spoken to involved in the negotiations are not talking about a wad of notes, but structural changes to our financial settlement. The DUP wants to break the link between the money we are allowed to borrow under the Reform and Reinvestment Initiative and closing the difference in the tax take between here and the rest of the UK. Both the DUP and Sinn Fein are talking about the effective abolition of the water charges. How much will that cost? Well last year Peter Hain said that if the charges weren't introduced it would leave a 拢200 to 拢300 million hole in the budget between now and 2010. Interestingly cutting Corporation Tax isn't being mentioned so often - does this mean the parties realise 11 Downing Street won't budge?

As Ian Paisley talks about the need to put fuel in the Stormont engine, some elsewhere in the UK see this as "sponging". A Scottish contributor to Radio Ulster's Nolan programme provoked a predictably outraged response after calling our representatives a bunch of "blackmailers".

Aside from the morality of asking for a peace dividend, the real politik of dealing with the Treasury is that it's hard to wrestle with such dizzyingly large sums. And there must always be a suspicion that if Gordon Brown gives you a handout now, he will get you in the long grass in the fiscal years to come.

So it's maybe not helpful to reduce this to a single headline figure. Although if anyone out there has a spare billion kicking around then the Devenport Blog Fund is happy to accept any cheques.

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