91热爆

Blogging Holiday

• Mark Devenport
• 30 Mar 07, 01:00 PM

I've just recorded an interview with Peter Robinson for this weekend's Inside Politics. I found him intent on accentuating the positive. He was no keener than Gerry Adams on getting into a date for the abolition of the IRA Army Council, nor did he want to crow about whatever progress the DUP is making on a tougher exclusion mechanism.

Questioned about the disquiet of David Simpson, Stephen Moutray and others, he argued that all those who stay in the party should respect the "binding decisions" of the DUP Executive.

On Jim Allister, he shied away from demanding a by-election, acknowledging that the party might stand accused of hypocisy if it called on Mr Allister to stand down, given their readiness to accept 3 UUP MLAs after the 2003 Assembly election.

You can hear the Peter Robinson interview at the usual time, usual place - 91热爆 Radio Ulster at a quarter to one tomorrow.

We've decided to keep this blog going until our new devolution day on May 8th. After that, who knows? However I am off for a fortnight's leave.

This leaves me with a dillemma - should I appoint a baby sitter or a blog sitter? I might persuade Martina Purdy to take my 3 year old daughter to W5, but there is no way she will go in goals so my 5 year old son can take penalties at her. That's settled it - Martina gets the blog, I get the kids. Until the middle of April, cheerio.

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Waste of time

• Mark Devenport
• 29 Mar 07, 03:15 PM

Just back from a seminar on our Assembly elections organised by the Electoral Commission, and attended by the political parties and other key players.

To my mind the most interesting contribution was from the Chief Electoral Officer, Douglas Bain. He argued that the election deposits, currently set at 拢150, were "a complete waste of time". Administering them took up a lot of work for his staff, but they didn't put anyone off standing. He said they should either be abolished or set at a more significant level.

He also didn't think much of the requirement that candidates must get 10 people to sign their nomination forms, on the grounds that most of them could get 10 people they'd met in the pub to sign on the dotted line.

Something else which emerged from an as still incomplete survey being carried out by the Electoral Commission was that 64% of people (so far they have only interviewed 400 people) appear to favour postal voting on demand.

There was also much talk of counting votes here electronically in the future.

So should they increase the deposit or do away with it? What do you think?

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Stupid questions

• Mark Devenport
• 28 Mar 07, 04:18 PM

This lunchtime I found myself standing outside Sinn Fein HQ on the Falls Road interviewing Sweden fans about tonight's match. Were they worried about David Healy, I enquired. We are not Liechenstein, came back the reply.

I bumped into the fans after interviewing Gerry Adams. My sports colleagues were glad of the vox pops, although they no doubt secretly thought my questions about the likely result were uninformed.

At least they didn't tell me to my face they were stupid questions, which was what Gerry Adams had just done. The enquiry that provoked this dusty response concerned Jim Allister, his erstwhile colleagues in the DUP, and the future of the IRA Army Council.

The Sinn Fein President told me that unionist concerns about the continued existence of the Army Council would be dealt with, but not in my interview. Unwilling to leave it at that, I enquired whether the Council might be gone by the new devolution date of May 8th. Gerry told me journalists had a right to ask questions, but not stupid questions. Later he said such issues would be dealt with "even to the satisfaction of Jim Allister" who he referred to as "yesterday's news".

Unbeknowns to me, at the time we were sitting in Sinn Fein HQ, the DUP MP Willie McCrea was on his feet in Westminster asking almost exactly the same question of Tony Blair. Stupid or not, I'm not convinced this question will go away.

By the way, does anyone out there know who said "there's no such thing as a stupid question..."? Is it a quote or just a commonly circulated cliche? All intelligent answers warmly appreciated.

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A stomach turning spectacle

• Mark Devenport
• 27 Mar 07, 05:18 PM

Jim Allister is obviously punctual by nature. As we all waited in his office on the Holywood Road he sat behind his desk for what seemed an age (although it was only five minutes) waiting for the appointed time (2pm) before confirming what we had already guessed - that he was leaving the DUP. He said his stomach turned when he saw the pictures of Gerry Adams and Ian Paisley sitting together in the Stormont Dining Room. If the IRA Army Council stays, he insisted, he was out. But there is to be no by-election as he intends to see out his term.

His fellow barrister, the UK Unionist Bob McCartney, may wonder why Mr Allister left it until now to make his stand. If he had jumped ship during the election campaign he could perhaps have made more of an impact on the way in which events have unfolded. When the DUP dropped its previous policy that a mandatory coalition with Sinn Fein was "out of the question" Mr McCartney smelt a rat. By contrast Jim Allister felt there was enough in the DUP's Assembly election manifesto about the need for full delivery by republicans to keep him on board.

Over in the Commons, Peter Robinson expressed regret that colleagues had left the party. He hoped they would think again. The East Belfast MP said he and his colleagues felt no joy in their hearts as they sat down with Sinn Fein yesterday, but felt it was in the wider interest that they did so.

Interestingly Mr Robinson went out of his way to deny suggestions that the DUP had reached a side deal with the 91热爆 Secretary John Reid on delaying devolution, cutting Peter Hain out of the picture. He said Mr Reid was the kind of politician who always stopped to exchange a word in the corridors at Westminster but he hadn't cut across the Northern Ireland Secretary's patch. That follows suggestions that the 91热爆 Secretary told the DUP about a fortnight ago that the precise date for devolution didn't matter provided it came "on Tony's watch".

Not all was sweetness and light - Jeffrey Donaldson accused Sylvia Hermon of nit picking and pettiness when she asked why MLAs were getting paid over the next six weeks.

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Inside the Stormont Dining Room

• Mark Devenport
• 26 Mar 07, 05:57 PM

It sounds as if the tone of the conversation at the DUP Sinn Fein meeting was fairly mature. The DUP leader apparently repeated his phrase that this was "a work in, not a love in". But he also stressed that working class Protestants and working class Catholics share similar problems and both parties share a common interest in tackling those problems.

It's believed there was also a common recognition that the new relationship between the DUP and Sinn Fein may face challenges and that the now established lines of communication must be kept open in order to head off any difficulties.

The run up to the meeting sounds as interesting as the actual encounter. When the DUP told Tony Blair about the need for a delay on Friday the PM had to break off the meeting to be informed about the Iranian capture of British sailors. He also talked to President Bush. On Sunday, as previously noted, Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness held proximity talks. They dealt with the date for devolution (Sinn Fein was keen on May 1st), the text of the leaders' statements and the visuals.

At one o'clock this morning officials were working away inside the Stormont Members Dining Room, dragging tables around until they settled on the diamond formation captured on camera.

Now it's down to the preparatory work. Our ministers in waiting may wish to acquaint themselves with their future departments. If so, with the exception of Peter Robinson who knows he is taking Finance, they will have to come to another informal understanding between themselves before formally running the D'Hondt system of appointments on May 8th.

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May 8th: The view from the basement

• Mark Devenport
• 26 Mar 07, 03:54 PM

I've just grabbed a moment's peace and quiet in the Stormont basement before busying myself with our teatime programmes. Two storeys above me - in the first floor members dining room, talks between the parties are still continuing. But nothing to compare with this morning's Paisley Adams encounter in the same room.

Concerns about today's deadline being broken have been brushed aside as people come to terms with that startling image of the Sinn Fein President and the DUP leader sitting just feet apart, reading from remarkably similar scripts, telling their supporters that the time has come to build a better future.

The six week delay appears to have been finally agreed during proximity talks which took place inside Stormont Castle yesterday. It's understood officials shuttled back and forth between Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness. The DUP's demand for a delay gave Sinn Fein some bargaining power, but they didn't want to pull the plug on a power sharing executive or to see their voters getting their water bills. Now they get a running in period and another photo opportunity closer to the Irish elections.

So no water bills, and a day of emergency legislation in Westminster tomorrow. Asked about whatever happened to his deadline, Peter Hain proclaimed his insousiance "Do I look embarrassed, do I look disappointed?" It sounded a bit like Catherine Tate's "Am I bovvered?" But in truth the civil servants really think they've got more than they bargained for.

May 8th is our new date. That's the 62nd anniversary of Victory in Europe or VE Day. So is this Victory in Ireland Day or Victory in Ulster Day? I suppose it depends which side of the diamond shaped table in the Stormont Members Dining Room you were sitting on. They say this government is going to be a "battle a day". But maybe just like on VE Day we can say that the war looks nearly over.

2 hours and 35 minutes

• Mark Devenport
• 25 Mar 07, 09:24 PM

That's how long we had to go to devolution being restored when I started this post. The question remains - what will happen during the 24 hours which follows?

As I write a DUP statement is expected soon - it may confirm a ground breaking bilateral meeting between Ian Paisley and Gerry Adams. If so that would effectively take the place of the Stormont meeting which was due to lead to the appointment of local ministers.

DUP insiders hope that the bilateral will be a step in a sequence of events which will see an emergency law introduced into Westminster putting off the devolution deadline until May on a date convenient to the government. The idea is that both the water bills and the ban on academic selection will be frozen until then.

Whilst the DUP think this deal is "100%" there's still room for uncertainty. Will Sinn Fein cooperate, or will they seek the launch of British Irish joint partnership arrangements? How in the loop has Peter Hain been, given some suggestions that the 91热爆 Secretary John Reid told the parties that it didn't matter what date devolution happened so long as it was on Tony's watch? What about Bertie Ahern's latest interview in which he insists the DUP has had more than enough time? What would be the impact of a delay on the Irish election, which is also expected in May?

Tomorrow we will all be wiser - I shall be at the Assembly where we have a "Stormont Live" planned for noon. Quite what we shall be reporting on then is anyone's guess. Oh and as I sign off we have 2 hours and 25 minutes to go until we win our temporary freedom from the direct rulers.

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A stingy sleight of hand

• Mark Devenport
• 23 Mar 07, 02:16 PM

In keeping with this morning's gloom in government circles, Ian Paisley made a fairly uncompromising speech to the Federation of Small Business, accusing Gordon Brown of being stingy and unfair. He argued that the Chancellor's rolling together of Irish and British money amounted to a sleight of hand. Returning to the political doubts of many in his Assembly team the DUP leader demanded an improved sanctions mechanism.

That said, there was also a real sense of Ian Paisley relishing the prospect of becoming First Minister. At the very end of his speech he accused Downing Street of changing the time of his meeting, adding that when he got his hands on the levers of power he'd sort the timetabling out.

So is this hardballing in an attempt to extract more from Tony Blair or a reflection of a real wobble within the DUP ranks? By midnight tomorrow we should all be a bit wiser.

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Gloom descends

• Mark Devenport
• 23 Mar 07, 10:13 AM

Whenever a deadline approaches you always get peaks and troughs in expectation. This morning there's growing gloom in some government circles.

The DUP's party officers met late last night and communicated a message to Downing Street. As a result Tony Blair has cleared some space in his diary to see a DUP delegation this afternoon. It seems fair to assume the DUP is looking for more time or more concessions. The government insists it's standing by the deadline and has nothing more to give.

I'm off now to the Federation of Small Business Conference in Belfast's Waterfront hall to see what Ian Paisley has to say to the delegates.

Some readers have pointed out they are getting a mixture of the Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales blogs. If you just want to follow the NI ones try this link

/blogs/election07/northern_ireland/

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The Codological Executive

• Mark Devenport
• 22 Mar 07, 05:24 PM

So we are now billionaires - thanks to Gordon and Brian chipping in 400 million each and the accountants finding another 200 million down the back of an NIO filing cabinet.

The question now is whether this is good enough for the DUP. They are due to hold a party officers meeting tonight. Then their executive is scheduled for Saturday. The DUP is working on a paper which deals with a bedding down period between next Monday and May. The idea is that the power sharing executive wouldn't meet until then.

Although the government says it's a work in progress, Peter Hain insists there will be no new emergency law. Some government sources believe the power sharing executive should meet as early as Tuesday. The DUP say that's not on.

Given that some senior DUP politicians still have no stomach for power sharing the DUP appear to need this transition. But how real will it be? The Ulster Unionists argue it is all "codology". If devolution occurs, they say, the local ministers will be ministers no matter what, and could be open to legal challenge if they don't perform their duties.

And if the Executive doesn't meet, who will put the water bills off?

From the Hain Assembly to the Transitional Assembly to the Codological Executive. Here we go again....

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Who wants to be a billionaire 2

• Mark Devenport
• 22 Mar 07, 09:49 AM

Just about to trudge off to 11 Downing Street to see what the parties get from Gordon. On Sky TV this morning the Chancellor talked about a 拢50 billion peace package. But that was exactly what he talked about in November last year only to have the commentators decide this was almost all old money repackaged as new.

During the election the DUP defended their ambiguity towards power sharing as a clever tactic which preserved their negotiating leverage with the government. Where does that leave them if the negotiating leverage only produces the same package that was on offer in November?

Of course Gordon did not reveal his tax cut until the final minute of his budget speech so it's possible we may yet hear about a one year delay in water charges and some capital money towards the water service.

So far, though, the mood music over the dividend isn't wonderful. And that points to a fudge in which the DUP seeks some kind of transitional arrangement which won't see the Executive fully up and running until the summer. If that happens, Peter Hain may have to eat a bit of humble pie, but he did that expertly on November 24th so don't rule out him doing it again on March 26th.

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A lack of hot air

• Mark Devenport
• 20 Mar 07, 03:49 PM

After signing the roll last week, our MLAS had their first day's proper work today. If you aren't a law lord, barrister, solicitor or parliamentary draftsperson most of the arguments about the new ministerial code and standing orders would have had your eyes glazing over. The dynamic was the SDLP opposing what they regarded as unnecessary changes to the Good Friday Agreement rules and the DUP buldozering them through. Sinn Fein appeared happy to see the rule changes made. Even if the MLAs had not been able to agree, Peter Hain retained the power to impose the new rules in any case.

With the deadline looming you have to wonder why the DUP is putting so much work into the changes if it does not intend to put the new rules to the test very soon.

Ian Paisley was obviously suffering - he complained about a faulty clock in the chamber and a gust of cold air - which he described as "stepmother's breath". The Speaker Eileen Bell agreed that the politicians would be a lot more comfortable if they could introduce more hot air - a return to their natural environment.

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Goco calling

• Mark Devenport
• 16 Mar 07, 03:29 PM

What does the fact that the parties want the first water bills scrapped say about their readiness to meet the March 26th deadline? The new government owned water company goes operational on April 2nd. The first bills are due out soon afterwards.

Will Gordon Brown put his hand in his pocket and give the parties the 拢70 to 拢80 million needed to scrap the first year's charges if the DUP tells him they are still undecided about devolution and won't make their minds up until the summer? When he meets them on Thursday March 22nd the Chancellor will undoubtedly want an assurance that the executive will be up and running by the turn of the month. Only then might he tell the GoCo what to do with its bills.

On an entirely different topic I see the Greens have declined their invitation to President Bush's White House St Patrick's jamboree because they want to reduce their carbon footprint. In the future governments will count their carbon just like they count their cash. So says no less a person than the Chancellor. By that standard I wonder what a carbon audit of the peace process would look like?

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Who wants to be a billionaire?

• Mark Devenport
• 15 Mar 07, 11:24 AM

This morning's papers are full of talk about the 拢1 billion peace dividend. So does that mean our politicians have settled for one fiftieth of the 拢50 billion Gordon Brown offered last November? Or are they settling for one tenth of the 拢10 billion which Sinn Fein demanded over the course of the next decade? Have we got our hands on the cash destined for Irina Abramovich?

The problem in asking the Treasury for a bung is that, as last November showed, its economists are well equipped to run rings around you. When the Brown offer was boiled down the best guess was that 拢2 billion seemed to be relatively new, although some didn't agree on that.

Most of those I've spoken to involved in the negotiations are not talking about a wad of notes, but structural changes to our financial settlement. The DUP wants to break the link between the money we are allowed to borrow under the Reform and Reinvestment Initiative and closing the difference in the tax take between here and the rest of the UK. Both the DUP and Sinn Fein are talking about the effective abolition of the water charges. How much will that cost? Well last year Peter Hain said that if the charges weren't introduced it would leave a 拢200 to 拢300 million hole in the budget between now and 2010. Interestingly cutting Corporation Tax isn't being mentioned so often - does this mean the parties realise 11 Downing Street won't budge?

As Ian Paisley talks about the need to put fuel in the Stormont engine, some elsewhere in the UK see this as "sponging". A Scottish contributor to Radio Ulster's Nolan programme provoked a predictably outraged response after calling our representatives a bunch of "blackmailers".

Aside from the morality of asking for a peace dividend, the real politik of dealing with the Treasury is that it's hard to wrestle with such dizzyingly large sums. And there must always be a suspicion that if Gordon Brown gives you a handout now, he will get you in the long grass in the fiscal years to come.

So it's maybe not helpful to reduce this to a single headline figure. Although if anyone out there has a spare billion kicking around then the Devenport Blog Fund is happy to accept any cheques.

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Over to Gordon

• Mark Devenport
• 14 Mar 07, 12:13 PM

Northern Ireland Questions in the Commons has just finished. The most striking image was a picture of Gordon Brown listening politely to the DUP's demands for what Mark Durkan called "financial lubrication". The Tories raised Michelle Gildernew's comments on political policing. Although the DUP talked about the need for Sinn Fein to deliver their emphasis seemed to be much more on the Treasury than the Army Council.

Peter Hain jousted with David Lidington over what he portrayed as the Conservatives' parlous performance, claiming they had only just pipped Rainbow George. The Tory spokesman pointed out that at least his party had not been scared to stand candidates.

Almost whatever topic was raised the NIO team batted it back by arguing that the future would be rosier under devolution. Affordable housing, tourism, the dairy industry - even the cows will produce more milk apparently if Stormont is restored.

Definitely the liveliest moment, though, was Andrew Mackinlay's denunciation of the Northern Ireland Tourist Board Office in Dublin's Nassau Street. The Labour backbenchers reckons the NITB office is less attractive than the average funeral parlour. Presumably the NIO will argue that it will look much better should there be a deal on March 26th.

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Signing On

• Mark Devenport
• 13 Mar 07, 03:01 PM

The 108 MLAs have now signed the roll. Alliance's 7 members joined the Green Party's Brian Wilson and the independent doctor, Kieran Deeney, in designating as United Community MLAs. The 9 intend to vote en bloc although they are not merging into a single party or angling for any ministerial office.

Stormont feels as if this is for real. Ian Paisley sounded very upbeat after meeting Peter Hain today - he said he had fallen out with some friends (now who was that a reference to?) but the electorate had backed him and this gave him room to manouevre. Senior Civil Servants who will be working with any new ministers believe it is "all systems go".

Who will those ministers be? I'm sure it wasn't an accident that Catriona Ruane accompanied Gerry Adams to the top table to sign the roll. One of Sinn Fein's leading women politicians, she is their candidate in South Down, a top target seat in any future Westminster election. By the same token, don't be surprised if Margaret Ritchie takes the only ministerial place open for the SDLP. I hear Mark Durkan does not want to combine being an MP and party leader with holding ministerial office. That way the party will be promoting a woman who is Eddie McGrady's heir apparent in South Down.

So far as the DUP is concerned Arlene Foster has to be in with a good chance. She is very able and hopes for greater things in Fermanagh and South Tyrone. Promoting Arlene might also be seen as a way of thanking Jeffrey Donaldson for the triple defection he led back in January 2004.

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First Day of Term

• Mark Devenport
• 12 Mar 07, 09:36 PM

There was a definite back to school feel about Stormont earlier today with old lags (as Nigel Molesworth might call them) showing the new boys and girls around the corridors. Even the heavily subsidised canteen is under new management. Eileen Bell is still there, staying on, according to Peter Hain's letter, until the new members can elect a replacement. Given Alliance's self denying ordinance, the SDLP's Alban Maginness is thought by many to be in the frame, although it should be remembered that the two big parties have so many MLAS that they could spare one or two for ceremonial purposes, provided the other side will wear it.

I left some of the politicians to it at Hillsborough castle this evening. They were chewing over the peace dividend with Peter Hain and some Treasury officials. The extent to which both Sinn Fein and the DUP are talking up the possible abolition of the new water charges makes you feel they think they have something close to it in the bag. Moreover their concentration on the economic package contributes to a sense that March 26th isn't really out of the question. Gordon Brown will meet the politicians next week after getting his Budget out of the way. By that stage the package should be more or less finalised as there won't be any time to waste before the deadline.

Have just been told the Guardian has a good story on Peter Mandelson's view of Blair's handling of Northern Ireland, so will break off now to go and read it.

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The afternoon after

• Mark Devenport
• 10 Mar 07, 12:19 PM

Have just finished a quick turn on the Talkback programme remembering some of the colourful moments of the election - from Sidney Elliot's dependence on lozenges to Gerry Adams' admission to my colleague Gareth Gordon that he transferred his sixth preference in West Belfast to Rainbow George. Will concentrate now on having a real life, until I return to the Stormont fray on Monday. Thanks for all your comments during the campaign and the election and apologies that I haven't yet had the time to answer every question...

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Les Nationalistes triomphent

• Mark Devenport
• 9 Mar 07, 04:46 PM

A French speaking friend tells me that Le Monde has depicted this election has a triumph for nationalists. It reports surges by both the nationalist Sinn Fein and the nationalist DUP. That should sort out any worries about the designation system...

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Dr in the House

• Mark Devenport
• 9 Mar 07, 04:27 PM

Kieran Deeney has won the battle of the doctors over the SDLP's Jo Deehan in West Tyrone. He survived thanks to transfers from both the UUP and the SDLP. The SDLP will have to look long and hard at how three candidates did not get a single seat. Between them they got 6018 votes - more than the quota of 5923. Would a single candidate have squeezed out Dr Deeney? Now we shall never know...

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Executive Outcomes

• Mark Devenport
• 9 Mar 07, 03:47 PM

Still awaiting the final picture, but here's my latest permutation after touching base with more political sources

It's thought the Ulster Unionist George Savage will take the last seat in Upper Bann, not Sinn Fein's Dessie Ward. The SDLP's Thomas Burns is thought to be likely to hold the last seat in South Antrim, whilst Kieran Deeney may survive in West Tyrone.

If this is the case it would give us an Assembly as follows

DUP 36
SF 28
UU 18
SDLP 16
Alliance 7
Greens 1
PUP 1
Kieran Deeney 1

This would translate into an executive which (not counting the First and Deputy First Minister) would have 4 DUP ministers, 3 Sinn Fein ministers, 2 UUP ministers and 1 SDLP minister.

The order of the picks would be as follows

1st Pick DUP - Finance
2nd Sinn Fein
3rd DUP
4th UUP
5th SDLP
6th Sinn Fein
7th DUP
8th SF
9th DUP
10th UUP

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Almost there

• Mark Devenport
• 9 Mar 07, 02:42 PM

The Chief Electoral Officer Douglas Bain is in favour of electronic counting of votes. But what will that do to 91热爆 Election Specials? Titles roll - Noel Thompson reads his introduction - welcome to our not very extended coverage - here's the election, press the button, there's your MLAS, here's your Executive, now it's time for Neighbours.

Just like the televised lottery we'll have to jazz the thing up with bands playing their latest single or an excerpt from a new show at the Opera House.

Of course after pioneering the results text service, we shall like our counterparts on ITV, have to induce viewers to enter election competitions. Although we seem to have contrived to be the only broadcasters not making any money on such services lately...

So what's the latest - on the 1.30 programme I suggested the following scenario

DUP 37 - 39
SF 28 - 29
UUP 17
SDLP 15 - 17
Alliance 7
Greens 1
PUP 1
Kieran Deeney - Maybe 1

The room for manoeuvre is in Upper Bann (where I think SF will probably take the last seat) South Antrim (where the SDLP is battling the DUP) and West Tyrone (where Drs Deeney and Deehan are still on a waiting list).

If the SDLP win both their battles they would draw level with the UUP. Under the tie breaking rule, the SDLP's total vote would be taken into account - as that's higher than the UUP they would get 2 ministries. If they don't win either of their dog fights they will trail the UUP and will only get one ministry.

So this is why those last seat battles are so vital...

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We're Back

• Mark Devenport
• 9 Mar 07, 10:13 AM

After minimal sleep, two appearances on Good Morning Ulster, one on Radio Foyle, boiling eggs for two small people and one drop off at primary school, I am now back in the saddle for more election coverage.

Sidney Elliot's throat seems a little soothed. He is now talking smoothly through the trends illustrated by recent elections. Sidney informs me that I have promoted him as he is a Doctor not a Professor.

I now intend to start a "Sidney for Prof" campaign. Given that his colleague Paul Bew recently got a peerage I think it's the least we can do for Sidney. How about a special Chair of Laryngitic Political Studies, focussing on those who have been forced to talk about politics whilst they have sore throats. I feel a doctorate coming on comparing Sidney's plight with the challenge facing the SDLP leader Mark Durkan when he had to launch his manifesto the day after shouting himself hoarse at the Ireland England rugby match.

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Our New Assembly?

• Mark Devenport
• 8 Mar 07, 09:51 PM

Everybody's at it - politicians, backroom boys, government officials. They are all trying to project the latest results forwards to try to work out what the shape of the new Assembly and, potentially, the new Executive will be. Being definitive at this stage is hard as there are too many permutations so far as those sixth seat battles is concerned.

But fortune favours the brave - so here's my best guess

DUP 38
Sinn Fein 28
SDLP 17
UUP 16
Alliance 7
Greens 1
PUP 1

I am told that if that were to be the outcome it would give us an Executive which (not counting the First and Deputy First) would be

DUP 4 ministries
Sinn Fein 3
SDLP 2
UUP 1

Health warning - all this may change as the counts unfold.....

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Teatime update

• Mark Devenport
• 8 Mar 07, 06:21 PM

Have just grabbed a bag of crisps during a half an hour break. The DUP are gleeful about the results so far with an average 4.4% gain. Once again the UUP are the losers with a 7.6% fall. Sinn Fein have consolidated with a 2.5% gain. The SDLP is slipping slightly but holding its own more than the UUP - its slide is only 1.7%. Alliance and the Greens happy with their one per cent plus increases.

Back on air now - will blog when I can

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McGeough arrested

• Mark Devenport
• 8 Mar 07, 05:07 PM

Gerry McGeough, the Independent Republican candidate in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, has been arrested and is being questioned about the attempted murder of a UDR officer in 1981.

He was arrested in the car park after leaving the count centre in Omagh and is being questioned in the serious crime suite in Antrim.

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Real Meat

• Mark Devenport
• 8 Mar 07, 03:06 PM

At last some real results with East and North Belfast both in. The detailed results are on our main site so your best bet is to try there or watch our TV/listen to our radio coverage. Looks like Dawn Purvis has defied those who believed the PUP could not survive David Ervine. Alliance's deputy leader Naomi Long - on the screen as I write - has a beaming smile. Up in North Belfast it looks the same again - it seems a tall order for the DUP's William Humphrey to catch the UUP's Fred Cobain. The collusion campaigner Raymond McCord could be the kingmaker - he has done better than in his previous outings.

Also hearing Anna Lo could be in in South Belfast on 3829 votes...

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North Down latest

• Mark Devenport
• 8 Mar 07, 02:00 PM

An Alliance source in North Down thinks Robert McCartney has missed out. Predicts 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, with last two seats being fought out between the Greens, a 2nd UUP candidate and a third DUP candidate
My source's unofficial tally is as follows...

DUP 34-35% Alex Easton tops with 11% Peter Weir 11% Robert Graham 7%
Bob McCartney 6.2%
Alliance Stephen Farry 11%
UUP 22% Leslie Cree and Marion Smith ahead of Alan McFarland who looks likely to lose out

Brian Rowan polling around 3.5%. Did well in Holywood to some extent at expense of SDLP but not enough to get elected.

But remember folks no real results yet - we are still in the guessing game....

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On air

• Mark Devenport
• 8 Mar 07, 12:10 PM

We're on air now on 91热爆1. First confirmed turnout figures coming through from our reporters. North Belfast 60.9% Lagan Valley 60%. West Belfast 67.4% which is up on last time. East Antrim 53.4%. East Londonderry 60.92%

A few more in...Foyle 63.88% Newry and Armagh 70.83% Upper Bann 61.14%

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Lozenge Corner

• Mark Devenport
• 8 Mar 07, 10:21 AM

An hour and a half to go until 91热爆 Northern Ireland's rolling election coverage begins, and Professor Sidney Elliot and myself are engaged in our pre match warm up. No press ups or jogging on the spot, in my case it's a second late breakfast, whilst Sidney is poring over his paperwork.

One thing we do have in common is tickly throats - Sidney is recovering from losing his voice after too much lecturing, whilst I think I am on the brink of a cold. So forget the analysis, the turnout and the quotas - watch out for the lozenges being surreptitiously sucked to keep us going through two days of live broadcasting. We shall try not to pass on our germs to our fellow conspirator Mark Carruthers.

At this stage all information is pretty sketchy. Last night Sinn Fein sources put turnout in Mid Ulster at 70% and in Foyle at 68%. Reports from eastern parts are a bit lower than that, but voting still seems to have held up despite the allure of Manchester Utd and Celtic. Something along the lines of 2003 election's 64% turnout would not be surprising.

The SDLP appear chipper this morning, especially about the chances of their Strangford candidate Joe Boyle and their Newry and Armagh bid for two seats. The DUP also sound fairly content.

91热爆 News Online will have all the latest results and will also be streaming live our radio and tv election programmes. The address is bbc.co.uk/nirelandnews. The colour at Ballymena, where both Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness's votes are being counted, should be fun to watch.

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Text Election

• Mark Devenport
• 7 Mar 07, 12:32 PM

It's polling day which means that until 10pm tonight I am in purdah, hiding my analysis away discreetly behind a veil, whilst the voters make up their minds.

One thing I do want to mention though is that 91热爆 NI is providing a free text service to your mobile phone with regular updates on how the count at the Assembly election is going - who's winning those coveted seats and who'll be the power-brokers at Stormont.

We think it's a UK election first, so to sign up text the word "election" to 81222. Don't bother putting in the inverted commas. You'll get updates on the winners and the state of the parties from two o'clock on Thursday March 8.

Alan asked where the Belfast constituency votes are being counted, given that the CIty Hall isn't being used. The counting will take place in the Nugent Hall, which is behind the King's Hall at Balmoral. The election officials there and elsewhere should have a turnout figure for us around lunchtime on Thursday with the first results due early in the afternoon.

Gareth Lee and Gerard G ask what's the new name of this blog going to be? I presume that's a reference to the fact that the election will be over at 10pm tonight. To be honest I'm not sure about the technicalities - the blog is on a shared platform with my counterparts in Scotland and Wales, whose elections happen in May. So maybe we'll continue to use the election name for a while even though technically everything should be done and dusted by Friday. I was thinking of keeping the blog going at least until the devolution deadline of March 26th just to see how things go.

However this does raise two questions I'm happy to get your opinions on - should this blog carry on after March 26th? And if it does what should I call it?

All suggestions (well almost all) appreciated...

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The STV Clinic

• Mark Devenport
• 6 Mar 07, 12:32 PM

I have decided to elevate a comment I got on a previous entry to a full post as I know there's still a lot of confusion out there about the STV system. Maurice Martin asked "No one can explain to me how quota surpluses are distributed. Is it only the votes after the quota is reached that are transferred or do all the second preferences count? Our district has 16 candidates for 6 seats, how far down the list must I vote?"

Your last point is the easiest to answer - vote for as many or as few candidates as you like. It doesn't make any difference that there are only 6 MLAs per constituency. Because you cannot guarantee the order in which candidates might be elected or eliminated it's quite possible that a 7th, 8th or later preference could still have some bearing on the election.

The distribution of surpluses is more technical. The election officials do not simply take the stack of votes left over after a candidate is elected and count the second preference on those votes. If they did that it would discriminate against people whose second preferences would then be ignored.

Instead the officials count all the second preferences for victorious candidates and then divide them so they are portioned out in proportion to the surplus the winning candidate has accrued. They are then allocated at a reduced value. That's why you sometime get fractions of votes being transferred - they represent the outcome of the sum the officials do.

On the topic of STV here is, as they say on Blue Peter, one I prepared earlier. It's a film I recorded at a mock election in St Gemma's School in North Belfast around the European election in June 2004. With the help of the former returning officer, Joe Connolly, it was an attempt to explain STV.....

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Good publicity?

• Mark Devenport
• 5 Mar 07, 05:56 PM

They say all publicity is good publicity, but I am not so sure about a Sinn Fein advert in the Irish News. It urges readers to watch Gerry Adams Ard Fheis speech live on RTE on Saturday 3rd March. The date of the paper? Monday 5th March....

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Overheard 2

• Mark Devenport
• 5 Mar 07, 03:27 PM

I have just watched the tape of my colleague Mark Simpson's interview with Ian Paisley at the City Hall. The DUP leader proclaims, no doubt inadvertently, "this has been a good erection for democrats".

Reminds me of the day when I was reporting on the Ormeau Bridge on a contentious march by the Apprentice Boys. The marchers agreed with the police to halt at the bridge and then board buses which would take them on their way. An enraged loyalist protestor shouted into my microphone "this is a total and utter copulation".

On the subject of parades, the Secretary of State has been up at Schomberg House playing a Lambeg drum. He told the Orange Order they have a role to play in a shared future, and promised talks with insurance firms on providing cover for Orange Halls. Those in attendance included the local DUP MP Peter Robinson, the Mayor of Castlereagh and South Belfast candidate Jimmy Spratt, the DUP leader Ian Paisley and the UUP Fermanagh candidate Tom Elliot, who is Grandmaster of his county.

According to the "purdah" convention, during an election ministers and civil servants are meant to "exercise caution about taking policy decisions, initiatives or actions which might appear to favour a particular candidate or party." Is there a "purdah" issue here or not?

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Overheard

• Mark Devenport
• 5 Mar 07, 03:15 PM

At this morning's Alliance event. Party official Ian Parsley, rearranging the furniture, said "it's nice to have to add more seats at a function like this". His leader David Ford retorted "it's only the seats on Wednesday that will count".

And then he went and ruined it by adding "I only said that for Mark's election blog". Really David, this is not a time for soundbites....

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About Me (and Him)

• Mark Devenport
• 5 Mar 07, 03:05 PM

With a surname like McCrea it's important for the UUP's candidate in Lagan Valley to explain to the voters exactly who he is. However I think the photograph on my copy of Basil's election literature could still give rise to some confusion. Who is that man peeping over Basil McCrea's left shoulder? Oh yes, it's Jeffrey Donaldson, formerly of Basil's parish but now intent on harvesting the votes for the DUP.

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Another election webcast

• Mark Devenport
• 2 Mar 07, 10:52 PM

In case you've missed it elsewhere here's a reminder that my colleagues in 91热爆 Online were so chuffed by the response to their first election webcast that they are doing another. This time it's the turn of the smaller parties - UKUP, Greens, PUP, Rainbow George, Conservatives and the Workers Party. Questions to the politicians can be e-mailed in advance to niinteractive@bbc.co.uk

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The campaign that never was

• Mark Devenport
• 2 Mar 07, 10:47 PM

Fielding a question on Hearts and Minds this week about why the Assembly election campaign has been so dull, I started thinking about what might have been. After all, the St Andrews Agreement specified the need for an electoral endorsement of the deal, but it didn鈥檛 become clear until some time later that this would be an election, not a referendum. So what might the campaign have been like if the governments had chosen the road less travelled by? What follows is an imaginary alternative鈥�

Continue reading "The campaign that never was"

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SDLP Sodoku

• Mark Devenport
• 2 Mar 07, 03:04 PM

The SDLP has produced a handy leaflet setting out their policies on public transport with a number game you can play whilst stuck on the bus. I think it's a sudoku game although the leaflet claims it's "sodoku". I hope it's not as my dictionary tells me that's a kind of rat bite fever normally found in the Far East.

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Missing person?

• Mark Devenport
• 2 Mar 07, 01:27 PM

One of the 91热爆's researchers has been trying to track down the Independent candidate for South Belfast, Geoffrey Wilson, who is proving more elusive than most local politicians. His posters are notable by their absence and his nominees don't seem to know much about him. Geoffrey, if you are out there, here's your chance to let the blogging public know you exist.

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Goodbye Phil

• Mark Devenport
• 2 Mar 07, 11:44 AM

The Secretary of State's Special Adviser Phil Taylor is expected to step down at the end of the month. Mr Taylor will take two months unpaid leave to become Political Director for Peter Hain's campaign for the deputy leadership of the Labour Party. That's provided devolution is restored - if there's no deal by March 26th the move might be reconsidered.

During his time as Special Adviser, Phil Taylor has been heavily involved in the development of policy initiatives such as the introduction of water charges and restrictions on building in the countryside. He has radical views about the scope for cutting the layers of bureaucracy here. Some civil servants will tell you he has been the "real Secretary of State".

After some documents from the Hain campaign were leaked to the Guido Fawkes website, some have questioned whether a Special Adviser can work on such a campaign whilst holding on to a civil service job. Phil Taylor tells me he has sought advice from his Permanent Secretary and believes he has remained within the ministerial code. Advisers, he says, are entitled to assist the campaigns provided it does not interfere with their other duties or impinges on the hours they should be working. Mr Taylor says that whatever criticisms might have been made of him during his 18 months at the NIO, not putting in the hours has not been one anyone could sustain.

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A medical mistake

• Mark Devenport
• 1 Mar 07, 04:23 PM

In the good olds days of "voting early and voting often" it used to be claimed that certain parties had printing plants cranking out fake medical cards. But that was all stamped out with the latest electoral fraud legislation, wasn't it?

Not if you read one of around 12 thousand leaflets distributed by the Tories. They inaccurately state the kind of identification needed to vote. Around 10 thousand of the leatlets were distributed in North Down and Strangford with an estimated 2 thousand in East Belfast. The leaflets feature the Conservative candidates Glyn Chambers, Bob Little and James Leslie.

Seamus Magee from the Electoral Commission clarifies that it is accurate to say that a driving licence and passport can be used, but not a medical card, an allowance book, marriage certificate, seaman's card or national insurance card.

But then the Tories might reply, that was accurate when we were in government.

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Money, money, money

• Mark Devenport
• 1 Mar 07, 02:05 PM

It's been the worst kept secret in local politics that Peter Robinson intends to take the Finance portfolio at the first opportunity. So what to make of the DUP's announcement on this score today? The DUP has presented it as part of a personal committment from Ian Paisley to tackle water charges. But it also looks like a clear signal that the party intends to go into government. Yes, the water charges leaflet says devolution is conditional on a satisfactory financial package. But nowhere does it mention any preconditions concerning Sinn Fein. I suppose the DUP will argue that voters should be well aware of their reservations on this point. But the following pledge from the DUP leader appears without any qualification "if the DUP is returned at this election as the largest political party, I will make the Department of Finance and Personnel my party's first Ministerial choice". To quote the Green co-leader Peter Doran. speaking at their manifesto launch today, it looks as if Ian Paisley has "taken Peter Hain's bait".

The Water Charges leaflet seems to have fewer specific pledges on water charges than the DUP's manifesto. The manifesto called for an extension of the option of water metering and said bills should be kept at "a level no higher than in England and Wales". What does this mean? According to my reading of the OFWAT website the average English and Welsh bill in 2004-5 was 拢249 rising to 拢295 by 2009-10. However the highest annual bill, for the South West , is expected to be 拢444 by 2009-10.

According to the DRD, once water charges are fully introduced here in 2009/2010, the lowest charge will be around 拢90 a year, the highest charge will be around 拢800 a year and the average charge will be 拢334.

The Greens say they are working on a legal challenge to the water charges, which they believe breach the European Water Framework directive as they do not provide an incentive for people to conserve water.

Many thanks to "the Craic party" whose comment pointed me towards the OFWAT website.

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