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New Europe: Nato enlargement : 29/03/02
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The
political map of Europe is likely to change dramatically next
November, when NATO meets in Prague to consider its next round
of expansion. In late March, Washington indicated for the
first time that as many as seven former communist countries
could be invited to join the alliance. Speaking to the leaders
of the candidate nations in the Romanian capital Bucharest,
a senior US official said there should be a robust enlargement
of NATO, from the Baltic to the Black Sea and the Adriatic.
Much of the final decision hangs on the fight against terrorism,
but not all -- as Oana Lungescu found out.
Ten
countries gathered in the Romanian capital for what they called
"The Spring of New Allies - a summit of NATO hopefuls. The
banner proclaimed the hope: New Generations, New Strength,
New Ideas, New Leaders. But the building where it all took
place was hardly new - the monstrously huge Palace of the
People, the pet project of Romania's former communist dictator
Nicolae Ceausescu. For someone like me, who grew up in Bucharest,
these cavernous white marble corridors and the heavy crystal
chandeliers are a stark reminder of the weight of the past
that Romania and the other applicants have to shed before
they find their way into the future they want.
As
Vivaldi's spring theme played on a loop inside the conference
hall, outside, there were open-air exhibitions and concerts
to show the Romanians' overwhelming support for NATO - something
shared by people on the streets. One told me, "If Romania
enters NATO, I think the population in Romania will live better
in this country and the population in Romania could rise above
other countries." But another said that Romania first had
to do its homework. "There is corruption everywhere, in all
aspects of life, from sports to politics." Both NATO and the
European Union agree. They've warned the government to tackle
corruption or risk being left out, as Romania's foreign minister
Mircea Geoana is well aware:
"The
fact is in order to be competitive and have a population which
believes in democracy and our common values we have to cope
with this cancer of our society which is corruption and a
lack of transparency. That's why we are the only candidate
which has committed itself to present a real action plan,
a concrete blueprint on corruption, on transparency, on red
tape, fighting bureaucracy and basically good governance."
But no action plan can rid Romania of what is practically
a way of life by November, when NATO leaders meet in Prague
to decide the next round of expansion. The Czech Republic
joined the alliance in 1999, together with Poland and Hungary,
but there are still lingering doubts about their ability to
adapt to NATO standards. Still, Prime Minister Milos Zeman
insists that the newcomers will have to show tangible results.
"Well, you remember probably Shakespeare. What are you
reading my Prince? Words, words, words... Do not speak the
words, act." There were plenty of words during the summit
in Bucharest but had Mr Zeman seen sufficient deeds on the
ground? "Well, for instance Romania sent seventy members of
the military police to Afghanistan. For me, those seventy
are a better argument for Romania's endeavour to be in NATO
than thousands of sentences about solidarity with NATO."
The
attacks of September 11 are proving to be a turning-point
for NATO expansion, as for so much else. Last year, few would
have rated the chances Romania and its neighbour Bulgaria,
even though they are the biggest and most populous of all
the ten candidates. But they were quick to seize the opportunity,
unconditionally opening their airspace and military bases
for American operations in Afghanistan. The Black Sea region
has acquired a strategic significance not seen since the 19th
century, as Romania's foreign minister Mircea Geoana explains.
"Probably September 11 highlighted the relevance of the
south, the fact that Romania and Bulgaria acted as de facto
allies in Afghanistan and elsewhere, but also the fact that
the Black Sea, probably for the first time since the Crimean
War is becoming again a relevant geo-strategic part of Europe,
and this time not against Russia, but together with Russia
in trying to have a springboard of our values, of our interests
across the Black Sea to the Caucasus and Central Asia."
And maybe even as far as Iraq, if America launches the second
phase of what it calls its war against terror. In their determination
to join NATO, Romania and Bulgaria may prove less reluctant
allies than the western Europeans. Both are busily refurbishing
airstrips and ports and have boosted military budgets to over
2 percent of their GDP. And, as America shifts its forces
to Afghanistan, they're taking on an increased role in their
own Balkan backyard.
The
second infantry brigade is training for peacekeeping duties
outside Bucharest. They've already served under NATO and UN
command in Albania and Angola and are now part of NATO's reserve
for Bosnia and Kosovo. But for these professional soldiers,
the real battle is often getting to grips with English and
NATO's unfamiliar ways.
At the Partnership for Peace regional training centre, these
young officers come from the Romanian provinces or even as
far afield as Macedonia, Moldova and Estonia. But the centre
is sponsored by Britain and everyone here speaks English,
under the close supervision of a British military adviser.
As they pore over a detailed map of southern England, they're
trying to apply British military doctrine to save the naval
base at Portsmouth from a massive enemy landing.
I asked one of them whether the exercise was useful.
"I think it's very useful because it's another way to think,
it's another way to solve the problems which we have confronted
and it's very interesting. It's very new to us this doctrine,
the British military doctrine. We were amazed about the freedom
of the commanders. The commander in the British army could
take his own decision. The higher echelon give him the opportunity
and the freedom to take the right decision, his own decision.
And this is very good. They're told what to do, not how to
do it. And this doesn't always happen in current Romanian
military doctrine though recently we've seen a change in this
way of thinking."
Over
900 officers have taken these courses, but these are slow
changes. Despite recent efforts to downsize, Romania still
has a large conscript army, often underfed and ill-equipped.
Thousands of officers have already left for more lucrative
jobs and the number of generals is being slashed. Ovidiu Dranga,
the deputy secretary of state for defence, is the only civilian
on the commission that appoints and sacks generals.
On
the phone, he switches easily between Romanian and English.
With a small US flag on his desk, Mr Dranga is part of what
he calls the developing NATO community in Romania, those who
worked in the Brussels headquarters or have gone on various
NATO training courses around the world.
"The chief of the airforce has attended courses in Canada
and the United States. Many others have done the same. So
you see things changed because people changed and vice-versa.
The most important issue here is maybe that many generals
chose to leave last year because I think they understood that
their time passed and they have to leave the place for others."
From the Black Sea to the Baltic, NATO hopefuls have to take
some tough decisions in the nine months until the Prague summit.
All have to speed up military and economic reforms and prove
their democratic stability. But one hurdle that a few years
ago threatened to derail NATO expansion has clearly been removed.
A new-found ally in the war against terror, Russia is forging
stronger ties with NATO and is quietly looking away as the
alliance is edging closer to its former empire. The three
Baltic countries -- Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania -- are certain
to get an invitation in Prague. The President of Lithuania,
Valdas Adamkus, who spent most of his adult life in the United
States, is confident of American support -- and he's already
told his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that's none of
his business.
"I very bluntly told him that this is the priority of our
foreign policy and we are going to go forward with this and
I believe that he's going to recognise and agree with us that
as a sovereign state we have the right to choose the systems
and the partners. And he just looked at me and after a few
seconds of silence, he said yes you are right, you have that
right, even if we don't like the architecture of NATO. But
he didn't say no. Yes, you have to do that, whatever you feel
is right for your country. And I believe that he's very consistent
with that position."
In the run-up to the Prague summit, blunt messages abound.
During a recent tour of the candidate countries, the US ambassador
to NATO made it clear that Slovakia would be left out in the
cold if the country's former Prime Minister - the radical
nationalist Vladimir Meciar is returned to power in September's
general elections. Internationally isolated under Mr Meciar's
rule, Slovakia missed its first chance to join NATO in 1997.
I asked the Slovak foreign minister Eduard Kukan if he's not
afraid of a popular backlash at the polls in a country where
the public enthusiasm for NATO is tempered with nationalism.
"My personal opinion is that those blunt messages, however
blunt they are, are fair because the Slovak citizens who are
going to the polling stations should know what their vote
would mean for Slovakia's position after the elections. So
that they are not surprised if by chance, it's theoretical,
the government composed of Mr Meciar will be formed and then
Slovakia would be rejected from membership of NATO. So I think
that however difficult or blunt it is, I think it's the fair
approach of our colleagues in the United States or some European
NATO member states."
The danger of rejection will hang over Slovakia until the
last minute. As it will over Romania and Bulgaria. But Bulgaria's
former king Simeon, now Prime Minister Simeon Saxe-Coburg,
told me that regardless of the results, Bulgaria will remain
in the race for NATO accession.
"Well our efforts have to continue, because that's a commitment,
it's not just run run run and then well too bad. But it certainly
would be an enormous disappointment which could even have
political backlashes and side effects which would be very
unfortunate. Our people are very supportive, the latest figures
are stunning so I think that's something to be taken into
consideration too."
The
ten NATO hopefuls will meet again in Riga in July. All ten
countries want to show they're partners, not rivals. But only
seven can now look to Prague with some expectation of success.
Albania and Macedonia are still too unstable to be considered.
Croatia hasn't even opened formal negotiations yet. Their
former Yugoslav neighbour Slovenia, though, is a firm contender.
Romania and Bulgaria in the south-east are also strengthening
their case. A question mark still hangs over Slovakia. While
in the north, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia know their call
has been heard. Next November, all seven hope that NATO will
say, "welcome to my alliance."
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