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 Gordon Corera's Iowa Diary
If there's one sure result from Iowa, it's that the race to become the Democratic candidate for President is still wide open. Gordon Corera on the winners and losers.
THE IMPACT OF IOWA:
Wednesday, January 21.
If there’s one thing the Iowa caucus proved, it was that it is the voters who make the decisions not the pundits.
Caucus-goers defied every poll and prediction by delivering success to Senator John Kerry and also Senator John Edwards who came a close second.
Meanwhile, the two favourites Richard Gephardt and Howard Dean were badly mauled - Gephardt to the point of pulling out of the race.
New Hampshire comes next on January 27th and predictions are just as hard. Here a race which had looked to be between Howard Dean and Wes Clark (who'd sat out Iowa) now could tighten dramatically as John Kerry makes use of his Iowa momentum.
New Hampshire is a tiny state (also vastly unrepresentative of America as a whole) but fiercely protects its tradition of holding the first primary. The saying goes that New Hampshire voters don't like to make up their minds until they've met a candidate at least twice.
One of the most interesting lessons from Iowa seems to be that Democrats value the ability to beat George Bush over ideological purity.
That's one reason why Howard Dean's support may have faded away but New Hampshire neighbours his home state of Vermont and Dean's signature issue - opposition to the Iraq war - has more resonance here so his campaign may not be quite dead yet, despite his slightly bizarre speech on the night of Iowa.
John Kerry also comes from neighbouring Massachusetts so is also on home turf. Retired General Wes Clark meanwhile faces his first ever test with the electorate.
New Hampshire voters are fiercely independent and more often than not, don't vote the same way as those from Iowa and it seems unlikely that the vote will produce a winner. Instead the candidates will move on to the next round of seven states on February 3rd and the race could remain wide open.
THE SURPRISING RESULTS:
Tuesday, January 20.
By the time the final results came in, two men who had been written off were suddenly now back in the race.
Coming in first was the austere Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts. A dedicated Vietnam veteran, his solidity on foreign affairs may give him the heft to challenge President Bush over issues of war and peace.
"If George Bush wants to make national security the central issue of this campaign," Senator Kerry told supporters, "I have three words for him we know he understands. Bring it on".
Just behind him, and also able to claim victory of sorts following the Iowa caucuses, was Senator John Edwards. His southern roots and impressive campaign style focusing on opportunity for ordinary people led his supporters to believe that he can challenge President Bush on domestic policy.
"I came here with a belief that we could change this country," Senator Edwards reflected. "With a belief that the politics of what was possible, the politics of hope, could overcome the politics of cynicism. The people of Iowa tonight confirmed that they believe in a positive, uplifting vision to change America".
Meanwhile, mid-westerner Richard Gephardt's union backing wasn't enough and his campaign is now over.
Also, the Howard Dean bandwagon has juddered to a halt at its first meeting with the electorate, with a surprisingly poor third place.
Seriously, but perhaps not fatally wounded, he vowed to fight on. As he did so, the Dean confidence (perceived by some here as arrogance) was all too evident.
"If you had told us one year ago that we were going to come in third in Iowa, we would have given anything for that," he told cheering supporters. "And you know something, not only are we going to New Hampshire, we're going to South Carolina and Oklahoma and Arizona and North Dakota and New Mexico. We're going to California and Texas and New York ... and then we're going to Washington DC to take back the White House."
So what explains the surprise result? Elect-ability seems to have been the main factor. Democrats in Iowa placed the candidates' ability to challenge President Bush above other considerations.
And so, as the race moves on to its next stop (New Hampshire) one thing is for sure. The race is now wide open.
THE BUILD UP:
Gordon explains why Iowa really doesmatter, ahead of the state's caucuses (Monday, January 19).
Iowa, like New Hampshire, is hardly a typical state. But its endless, broad plains, punctuated only by grain silos and farms, are emblematic of middle America – what some call the heartland.
Farmers worried about trade and the influence of corporations as well as workers worried about jobs and health care make this a place where bread and butter issues predominate. Iraq is a long way away in every sense.
Iowa also takes its caucus process seriously. One hundred thousand Iowans gather for an evening in nearly 2,000 precincts to debate the issues and support their candidate. As the first place to vote, it’s a chance for candidates to build momentum as they head into the crucial New Hampshire primary.
Iowa is normally ignored in the general election because it's so small so it’s the one chance for Iowans to get their issues (often agricultural) onto the agenda and extract promises from the candidates. Organisation is crucial in getting your supporters to turn up to caucus. So Iowa, whilst not representative of America, also gives the parties a good sense of who the candidates are who can not only win media attention, but run the kind of grass-roots organisation that is increasingly seen as vital in winning elections in such a closely divided country.
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