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The Result of the 2001 General Election

One thousand and eight non-voters were asked which party they would have been most likely to support had they voted; fifty three percent said Labour, and nineteen percent said the Tories. When regional variations in swing and turnout are taken into account, that could have affected Tory victories in around two dozen seats.

Many Conservatives have said that Labour's record in government has turned voters off politics; but central office strategists will be concerned that even those who couldn't be bothered to vote would still choose Labour rather than the conservatives.

The poll for the Today programme was carried out by the Conservatives' own pollsters, ICM. Just over a thousand non voters from around the country were asked: "If you had actually gone to vote in the General Election, which party do you think you would have voted for?" 53% said they'd have backed the Labour party. 19% said they'd have voted Tory. Martin Boon is associate director of ICM. He says this shows the Conservatives are at rock bottom.

"This is terrible for the Conservative Party," he said. "It shows that in spite of what they may hope, there is no resevoir of untapped support out there."

Of course, asking people how they'd vote two months after the general election and when they know the result is likely to skew answers in favour of the winner - in this case Labour. So perhaps the Tories can take heart in that. But the poll suggests that their support is far lower among non voters, so if turnout was increased, the Tories could expect to actually LOSE seats rather than win them.

"We don't like to make seat projections because of the variations in turnout," said Martin Boon. "Then there's the fact that these staistics can't tell the whole story: if more non voters did turn out it would have a disproportionate effect on Labour areas."

Nevertheless, in his professional opinion he estimates that the Tories could have been on course to lose anything from 20-40 seats had turnout been higher on June 7th. That would have left Labour with an overall majority of 215. Since 1832 only one party has won a bigger majority: the Conservatives won by 223 seats in 1924.

The Projected Result of the 2001 General Election including non-voters voting intentions

But within the Conservative Party this is not the received wisdom. Bob Spink is one of the few Conservatives to have won back a seat from the Labour party in the last general election. He has a wafer thin majority (just 985 votes) in Castle Point in Essex and our poll indicates that could well have been jeopardised if more non voters turned out.

Mr Spink blames the low turnout in the general election on the public's increasing mistrust of the government, and particularly the Prime Minister. He is also worried there may be a media agenda at work. "This is nothing but Today programme bias towards the Conservative Party," he says.

The Tories are consoling themselves by saying that the results of 2001 were a complete freak - and that even though many people did not turn out to vote, their support is there for the taking if the party gets its policies right.

Speaking on the Today programme recently Tory leadership contender Ken Clarke said all the major parties failed to excite the electorate at the General Election. "None of the the political parties had aroused their enthusiasm," he told James Naughtie. "None of the political parties had persuaded them that they really knew how to address the big problems concerning the public. That makes the next election wide open."

His opponent, meanwhile, believes the Conservatives must challenge the what he sees as the cynicism of the Labour Government. In the speech announcing his candidacy in the leadership race Iain Duncan-Smith said: "Whilst the election defeat was a bitter blow to the Conservatives, the low turnout is also a signal of the despair people feel about the political process under Mr Blair."

But the Today/ICM poll suggests it might not be that easy. It indicates that the majority of non voters have already made up their minds, and they don't like the Conservatives. That leaves the party with an tough battle to win back the votes of the electorate.