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In a constantly evolving organisation like the European Union it would be surprising if there wasn't a bit of jostling and jockeying among the predominant countries. Germany made a fairly undisguised bid for "supremacy" at the Nice summit last December, when it demanded more votes than France or Britain, to reflect its much greater population. France slapped it down, arguing that Franco-German parity was the very backbone of the European structure. Doubtless the arguments were well rehearsed last night by Messrs Chirac and Schroeder over dinner in Strasbourg.

But have things really changed that much? The two countries may have different views of what Federalism might entail. France may be wary of a German-inspired EU Constitution that would set things in stone and possibly undermine the role of the nation state. But both countries continue to speak of themselves as being at the heart of all future progress in Europe.

So where does that leave Britain? Well, under Tony Blair Britain IS playing a bigger role in Europe. But as today's opinion polls show, it does look differently at the marriage. Thirty per cent would happily sue for divorce. Most of the others don鈥檛 want to give up our extramarital affair with America. And so long as Britain remains outside the biggest European project of all, the Euro, it can't expect to be at the heart of decision-making here. The time is, or could be, right for the French-German axis to make way for a new triangular one, with Britain a key player, but the longer it self-excludes itself from major projects, the closer we get to joining that dreaded 鈥渟econd tier鈥� in Europe. Berlin and Paris want us in - they're waiting with open arms. Perhaps that's what's scares us so much!

Over the past year all three countries have presented their diverse visions of Europe. Germany鈥檚, admittedly, came not from the Chancellor but from foreign minister Fischer, whose federalist dream of a directly elected president, two-chamber parliament and written constitution sent shivers through the British (and French) Establishment. The logic of his call for the German model to be repeated at an EU level was that the European parliament (that much-derided body for which only twenty-five per cent of Britons turned out to vote last time round) should actually elect a government of Europe, just as the Bundestag chooses the German federal government. There are Germans who seriously believe that this should happen.

President Chirac countered with his vision of a Europe based on nation states (prompting Fischer to respond that he too never imagined nations disappearing), but with a 鈥減ioneer group鈥�, led explicitly by France and Germany, forging ahead towards greater integration in, among other things, economic policies, defence and security, and the fight against crime.

Britain could go along with some of that - Tony Blair is happy to co-operate in the fight against crime. But integration in economic policies causes problems: the idea put forward by the French finance minister Laurent Fabius that the present "Euro group" of single currency nations should be an embryonic "economic government" raises the spectre in London of "European" government, and as such is unacceptable - the more so as Britain would not be in it.

So Tony Blair put forward his own vision. Europe could, he said, be an economic superpower - but not a superstore. It had to be more than a free trade area, but less than a federation. There should be a clear delineation of powers at European, national and regional levels - and a second chamber of parliament to police this separation of powers.

Not much of that has been taken up by the others, so far. In truth, not much of what any of these countries proposed has been taken up so far. The Nice summit was a forum for arm-wrestling, bickering over the EU pecking order, rather than for seriously addressing the question of how the Europe of the future will be managed.

But that will come. Drip by drip, new reforms will add layers to the EU political structure. And the experience of the past decades, since the first treaty that set up the Coal and Steel Communities, is that no reform has ever reduced the power of Brussels, only increased it.