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US "war on terror" has not weakened al-Qaeda, says global poll
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The US "war on terror" has failed to weaken its prime target, al-Qaeda, according to people in 22 out of 23 countries surveyed in a new poll for the 91Èȱ¬ World Service.
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On average only 22% believe that al-Qaeda has been weakened, while three in five believe that it has either had no effect (29%) or made al-Qaeda stronger (30%).
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And while negative views of al-Qaeda are most common in nearly all of the countries surveyed, this is not the case in Egypt and Pakistan – both pivotal nations in the conflict with al-Qaeda.
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In both of these countries far more have either mixed or positive feelings towards al-Qaeda (EgyptÌý40% mixed and 20% positive, PakistanÌý22% mixed and 19% positive) than have negative feelings (Egypt 35%, Pakistan 19%).
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Asked who is winning "the conflict between al-Qaeda and the United States", the predominant view of those polled is that neither the US nor al-Qaeda is winning, with 15 countries holding this view.
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In three countries – Kenya, Nigeria and Turkey – the dominant view is that the US is winning. In no country does more than one in five – 21% in Pakistan – believe that al-Qaeda is winning. Views are divided in other countries.
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On average across all 23 countries just 10% think al-Qaeda is winning, 22% think the US is winning, and 47% think neither side is winning.
Even in the United States only 34% believe al-Qaeda has been weakened.
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Fifty-nine per cent, according to the poll, believe the "war on terror" has either had no effect (26%) or has made al-Qaeda stronger (33%).
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Meanwhile, 56% believe neither side is winning the conflict; 31% believe that the United States is winning; 8% believe al-Qaeda is winning.
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On average 61% of those in countries surveyed say their feelings about al-Qaeda are negative, 8% say they are positive and 18% say they are mixed.
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"Despite its overwhelming military power, America's war against al-Qaeda is widely seen as having achieved nothing better than a stalemate and many believe that it has even strengthened al-Qaeda," comments Steven Kull, director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes.
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GlobeScan Chairman Doug Miller added: "The fact that so many people in Egypt and Pakistan have mixed or even positive views of al-Qaeda is yet another indicator that the US war on terror is not winning hearts and minds."
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The results are drawn from a survey of 23,937 adult citizens across 23 countries conducted for the 91Èȱ¬ World Service by the international polling firm GlobeScan together with the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland.
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GlobeScan coordinated fieldwork between 8 July and 12ÌýSeptember 2008.
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Notes to Editors
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 Detailed Findings
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Countries with the largest numbers perceiving that the US "war on terror" has strengthened al-Qaeda include some with whom the US has quite friendly relations – France (48%), Mexico (48%), Italy (43%), Australia (41%) and the UK (40%).
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Countries most prone to believe that al-Qaeda has been weakened include Kenya (58%), Egypt (44%), and Nigeria (37%). Ìý
In 15 countries the dominant view is that neither side is winning the conflict between al-Qaeda and the United States.
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In three countries the dominant view is that the US is winning (Kenya 45%, Nigeria 34%, Turkey 38%). Ìý
Pakistan is the country most inclined to think that al-Qaeda is winning – 21% hold this view; but a similar number (24%) believe that neither side is winning.
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In four countries (Egypt, Germany, India, and the Philippines) views are divided between those who believe that neither side is winning or that the US is winning.
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In 15 countries a clear majority has a negative view of al-Qaeda.
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In five more countries, negative views are the most common response but are held by less than half – China (48%), India (44%), Indonesia (35%), Nigeria (42%) and even the Philippines (42%) – a country that tends to have a distinctly pro-American orientation. Ìý
Nigeria actually has the largest number saying that they have positive feelings toward al-Qaeda (25%).
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But a larger number (42%) say they have negative feelings and 12% say their feelings are mixed. Ìý
Overall those with positive views of al-Qaeda are more likely to say that the US "war on terror" had made al-Qaeda stronger (51%) than are those with negative (33%), or mixed views (29%).
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But even those with negative views are more likely to say that it has made al-Qaeda stronger (33%) than weaker (28%). Ìý
Among those with positive views of al-Qaeda more believe that al-Qaeda is winning (35%) than for those with negative or mixed views (both 9%), but among those with a positive view a majority thinks either that neither side is winning (31%) or the US is winning (22%).
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Majorities believe that neither side is winning among those with negative (54%) or mixed views (61%).
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Country-by-country results are available in the PDF on the right-hand side of this page.
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91Èȱ¬ World Service Press Office
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