91Èȱ¬

Just how bad is it going to get?

Christopher Olshewski is a natural optimist who confirms me in my unnatural pessimism. We are on a gantry overlooking his busy bus factory near Poznan in Poland. We peer over at two men in harnesses walking on the roof of a yellow bus destined for Berlin. Next to it, a blue and yellow number, which will go to Athens, is winched to shoulder height so the workers can fit the electronics underneath.

Mr Olshewski lived in Germany for 13 years during the days of martial law in Poland. When he returned after the end of communism, he set up this company, . He told me that in those days, Poland had nothing approaching modern buses. "Do you know what the difference between an optimist and a pessimist is?" he asked. "The pessimist goes to a country and sees nobody is wearing shoes, and says: 'How terrible!' The optimist thinks: 'What a business opportunity!"

The company's PR man, Mateusz Figaszewski, says everybody is concerned, of course, but for them the economic crisis has not had a real impact, although no one can ignore the psychological one. "It's as if every one hears on the radio that there is a terrible flu epidemic. So they take to their beds, even though they feel perfectly well," he says.

Mr Olshewski says his order book is full and that 2009 will be a better year than 2008, when they made about a 1,000 buses for 20 different European countries. But the crucial thing is that his vehicles are all for public transport. His clients are public authorities, usually city councils. He knows that the downturn is just slower to hit them. They will get less money from taxes and 2010 could be quite tough. But, he consoles himself with the thought he is planning to move into making trams, and that's an expanding market. It is just another business opportunity.

So why I am an unnatural pessimist? Only unnatural, because it's not my normal inclination to be gloomy. But despite the bad news we hear every day, I don't think we are anywhere near the bottom of this economic slump. The cautious political forecasts of some governments, that things will be looking up by the end of the year, don't make much sense to me. I hope Solaris continues to do well. However, the public sector is slower to feel economic cold winds and when it does, it will sneeze loudly. Tell me I am wrong and that the flu will soon pass.

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