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A dark horizon: or a boost for the eurozone ?

• Mark Mardell
• 3 Nov 08, 02:40 PM

A new official economic survey for the European Union calls the outlook "bleak" - although it predicts things will get better by this time next year.

The European Commission's autumn forecast suggests the EU is now just going into recession and the economy will "grind to a standstill". Its prediction for 2008 to 2010 predicts unemployment in the EU will rise to 7.8% next year and go up again in 2010.

The economic commissioner Joaquin Almunia says that "the economic horizon has now significantly darkened" but the forecast predicts only a slowdown and not recession in 2009. While it predicts hardly any growth in the first half of next year it suggests things will pick up after that, meaning that the European Union would avoid going into recession.

But Mr Almunia sees, from his point of view, one silver lining : he said that countries like Poland and Denmark had "seen the risks of not being members of the euro" and that he thought there would be "renewed political will" to join.

I am fascinated how this, and the government's apparent intention to become the 16th member of the eurozone, will go down in Denmark.

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