91Èȱ¬

Gordon Brown hasn't yet announced the date, but voters in South Belfast have already spotted SDLP posters up, so keen is Alasdair McDonnell to hold on to his seat.

The DUP's Jimmy Spratt has objected pointing to a statement in August last year when Dr McDonnell objected to fly posting.

Whilst the politicians are gearing up for the election, I'm trying to get same time off over the Easter before things get going in earnest. So my blogging efforts won't be too frequent over the next few days.

Martina Purdy is taking over the helm at Inside Politics on Sunday. She has Sir Reg Empey as her guest. His Ulster Unionists are meeting for their AGM this weekend, just days after losing their only MP.

The Politics Show on 91Èȱ¬1 has wall to wall DUP leaders, with appearances from both Peter Robinson and his predecessor Ian Paisley Senior. Ian Senior is also due to appear on 91Èȱ¬ Radio 4's Today programme tomorrow morning.

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Launching their election slogan today ("Let's keep Northern Ireland moving forward") the DUP pledged that any MLAs who win Westminster seats will give up their Assembly jobs. They are keeping one exception, namely the party leader, as Peter Robinson reckons having the access to government which comes with being in the Commons will be important, especially if there's a hung parliament. Despite his talk of preferring Stormont to Westminster he confirmed he is putting his name forward in East Belfast.

And given his speed of movement between both places he clearly has the technology.

P.S. There were a couple of moments of apparent contrition in Mr Robinson's speech. On expenses he apologised, not for any of his own claims, but for not acting to alter the "systemic defects" in the system. On agreeing to share power with Sinn Fein in 2007, he refused to accept the DUP broke its word, but acknowledged that "we did not do enough to explain what we did and why we did it".

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Not exactly a surprise after her very public falling out with her party over their link with the Conservatives, but the North Down MP Lady Sylvia Hermon has now resigned from the UUP. She has pledged to "fight to win" as an independent unionist, and all the indications are that the DUP (who were very warm towards her during Monday's justice debate in the Commons) are prepared to give her a helping hand by standing aside in North Down.

So we have the nightmare prospect for Sir Reg Empey of the UCUNF experiment losing him his only MP and any gains elsewhere still purely notional. A lot is riding on Mike Nesbitt, and whoever the Conservatives and Unionists finally settle on to fight South Antrim.

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So that's it settled then. Gordon Brown has no need to drive to Buckingham Palace to share a cup of char with Her Majesty. His secret is out, the election will be May 6th.

It seems a fair assumption now the Castlereagh council by-election to choose a successor to Iris Robinson has been set for that very day. Why pick May 6th if not to make it easy for the voters?

That said, not everyone will be happy. Alliance's Gerry Lynch made it clear earlier this month The TUV have already claimed the by-election date has been set "in order to spare the DUP's blushes".

This isn't the only local bit of politics which dovetails with the election timetable. If you consult you will see that the transfer of justice powers falls on the very day parliament is expected to be formally dissolved.

Let's hijack other elements of this timetable - scrap the trip to Buckingham Palace and replace it with a coffee with the PM and the Mayor of Castlereagh, maybe at a local cafe (any recommendations?) After all, the Council knew the date before the Queen.

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Before last night's Justice debate in the Commons wound to its inevitable conclusion, we were treated to a couple of "farewell" speeches.

One came from the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee chair, Sir Patrick Cormack. He paid tribute to the "courageous persistence, at a time of great personal difficulty, of the current First Minister" and criticised the UUP for what he called "a short-sighted and mistaken decision" to oppose the transfer of powers.

Next came Ian Paisley Senior who was in the mellow mood which has now become characteristic of the former tub thumper. He talked about people in Northern Ireland learning to live together as good neighbours, a sentiment he illustrated with this anecdote from his childhood holidays in South Down: "I played with the boys in Killowen, who were strong republicans and strong Roman Catholics, and I was just as strong a Unionist and a Protestant. However, they came with me to the 12 July demonstration, and I went with them to the Warrenpoint Hibernian demonstration. In fact, the Hibernian people got into trouble just before their demonstration. On the night before, one of their drums gave way. They had no drum, so they came down to the Orange hall and got an Orange drum on loan. They also got a sheet, which they covered up and on which they roughly painted their Hibernian slogan. However, as they were going through Warrenpoint the next day, the sheet came off, and all that could be seen was "To the immortal memory of King William III" and "No surrender!" Everybody laughed; nobody got up and said, "This can't be." There was a general mood of good will."

The outgoing North Antrim MP also looked forward to a day when the troubles might be forgotten - when he first mentioned this I thought he might be on dangerous ground so far as those who would argue we must never forget are concerned. But he voiced the sentiment with a couple of caveats as follows: "I am confident that, with the good friendship in this House towards Northern Ireland, we will come to a day--although I may not live to see it--when these troubles will be forgotten. We will not forget, of course, the price that was paid or the loyalty of those who stood against assassins, but we will forget the awfulness of the days that we have come through. As we move forward, we shall see prosperity in our land. A working people live at peace."

Although both MPs billed last night's addresses as their last speeches, I suppose it's possible they may yet make contributions during Northern Ireland questions on Wednesdays.

One last aside - when I heard Ian Paisley's remark about not living to see the day, I couldn't help thinking of the joke Bill Clinton made about his heart condition at a Washington dinner on Saturday night. Talking about the chances of Congress approving President Obama's health care package, the former President quipped "It may not happen in my lifetime, or Dick Cheney's, but hopefully by Easter."

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When Jeffrey Donaldson began his speech this evening he apologised for Peter Robinson's absence due to his committments at Stormont. But shortly after (at 17:44 if my watch was right) he announced that Peter Robinson had arrived and sure enough the First Minister made an intervention a couple of minutes later.

This was pretty smart work given that Mr Robinson had been standing in the Assembly chamber answering his last question at 15:00. Has the DUP invested in a Star Trek style tele-porter to deflect criticism of double jobbing?

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I'm over in London today keeping an eye on this evening's Commons debate on the devolution of justice. Given the support of both Labour and the Conservatives the result is a foregone conclusion, but despite that the debate has had its moments.

The most striking intervention so far came from the sole Ulster Unionist MP Lady Sylvia Hermon, who has already made it clear that she fundamentally disagrees with her own party's decision to vote against the transfer of powers in the assembly. So MPs were treated to the somewhat bizarre sight of the North Down MP cross questioning the Shadow Secretary of State over how much effort his leader David Cameron had really put in to persuading her leader Sir Reg Empey to change his mind.

Owen Paterson responded by asking Lady Sylvia why she wasn't addressing these questions directly to her own leader. He then went on as best he could to explain her colleagues' doubts about the workings of the four party coalition.

Although the divide between UUP opposition and Tory support has been well documented, the Liberal Democrat Alistair Carmichael drew attention to what he viewed as a division within Tory ranks. He drew Mr Paterson's attention to and asserted that the newly confirmed candidate for North Down was more in step with the UUP than the Conservatives on the justice issue.

The SDLP's Mark Durkan drew attention to the potentially destabilising impact of the 2012 sunset clause discussed previously on this blog. As I write, the Lagan Valley MP Jeffrey Donaldson is on his feet concurring with Lady Sylvia's views on justice and quoting back some of Mr Durkan's comments about the "ugly scaffolding" of the Good Friday agreement back to him.

Earlier in the day Shaun Woodward released a written statement on the Saville inquiry which raised the prospect of the long awaited report being delayed yet again, until after the general election. The Conservatives took this further, urging the government not to release the report in the fevered atmosphere prior to the forthcoming election.

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Now we have 17 of the 18 Conservative and Unionist joint candidates confirmed, there will no doubt be an appetite for more details on their backgrounds. Consult the Vote for Change website and you can, for example, get all the details on Trevor Ringland's

But click on Rodney McCune's name right now and you have to have a good command of I shall put the profile as it now stands in the extended entry in case any of you have a clue what it means. What's the Latin for "unity candidate"?

Read the rest of this entry

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I'm in the office getting my head together for this lunchtime's Inside Politics. After the week that's been the Pope's letter on child abuse in the Catholic Church and the demands for a northern are likely to dominate my discussions with the Sinn Fein Education Minister Caitriona Ruane and the SDLP MLA Alban Maginness.

My guests are Fionuala O'Connor and Austin Hunter. Besides talking to them about child abuse, I shall try to get a question in about other political developments such as yesterday's confirmation by the Conservatives and Unionists of 8 more candidates. The new force now has

Picking Tom Elliot in Fermanagh and Paula Bradshaw in South Belfast appears to scotch the talk of unionist unity candidates in both seats. The Conservative Ian Parsley's confirmation in North Down was predictable, but puts it up to Lady Sylvia Hermon to make clear her intentions.

And of course 17 candidates means one is missing. The seat is South Antrim and I notice that the speculates that this is because of disagreements between the UUP and the Conservatives over the candidacy of Adrian Watson following his remarks on 91Èȱ¬ Radio Ulster's Nolan show about whether he would be happy to have a gay couple stay as guests in his bed and breakfast.

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Sinn Fein is advertising a "Kelly show" with a difference in North Belfast on Sunday night. In place of the former UTV King of Chat the audience will be treated to the Sinn Fein Junior Minister in the compere's chair, hosting a question time featuring guests including George Galloway and Frances Black. But what will be his theme tune? Surely not "Land of Hope and Glory" again?

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How soon will the Executive decide whether to order a Northern Ireland equivalent of the Irish Republic's Ryan Commission on Child Abuse?

Following an the Health Minister Michael McGimpsey has now completed an "options paper" which he has forwarded to the Executive for its consideration. Health Department sources say all the other departments contributed feedback to the paper, with the exception of Education, which indicated it would not have its position ready until next month. Minister McGimpsey decided to press ahead in any case.

The options paper isn't being published, but the minister gave an idea of the range of actions under consideration in an accompanying press statement, in which he said "our intention is to ensure that in meeting the needs of victims whether by issuing apologies, establishing inquiries or setting up new compensation arrangements, that no victims are left behind. Important choices will now have to be made but I believe that action must be taken to address the pain and distress caused to so many victims."

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My colleague Conor Macauley was trying to interview the SDLP MLA Conall McDevitt in the Holyland yesterday during the St Patrick's Day festivities, when a reveller with several pints inside him interrupted with a mixture of gestures and shouts of "unionist b------!" Things got so bad a police officer intervened. But the bystander appeared to calm down when he realised Conall was a nationalist, not a unionist. When he sobers up, Conor intends to explain the D'Hondt system to him.

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One of the three "rebels" who withdrew their names as potential candidates for the Conservatives after the Hatfield House revelations has now quit the party altogether. The Conservatives and Unionists held a special news conference at their HQ at Weavers Court in Belfast to trumpet Deirdre Nelson's defection from the DUP. But now Mrs Nelson has left the party altogether and is understood to be considering her future in politics.

The Ballymena councillor had been keen to stand in East Belfast, but it's believed she was also touted as a potential runner in North Antrim where she would have been the meat in an Allister Paisley Jr. sandwich.

The Conservatives and Unionists are expected to confirm their remaining 9 candidates in the coming days. But neither Deirdre Nelson nor the other two rebels Sheila Davidson and Peter McCann are expected to feature.

Should Ian Paisley Junior follow in his father's footsteps and become MP for North Antrim, the DUP could soon have two Assembly seats to fill in the constituency. Prior to her defection, Mrs Nelson would have been considered a "shoe in" for one of these jobs, but she now finds herself in something of a political wilderness.

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That was, of course, the day when all our eyes were on the Assembly chamber to see how the vote would go on the devolution of justice. Coincidentally it's also the date the Assembly chose to publish an That's the link to follow if you want to double check how much Gerry Adams got paid for his Holy Land Channel 4 documentary, or which MLAs are still employing their family members.

The Assembly says the register is going to be updated once a month.

The Assembly has also published another breakdown of expense claims. The details show Margaret Ritchie to be the highest claimant with £76,336 and Caitriona Ruane the lowest claimant with £27,345 (SDLP sources say their leader's claims were inflated by the need to pay a member of her support staff who has long term sickness).

P.S. Ms Ritchie may have been annoyed at not being invited to meet President Obama alongside Messrs Robinson and McGuinness in the White House. But she is the only person invited to put her name forward on Sunday night when the SDLP choose their successor to Eddie McGrady in South Down. The retired Church of Ireland cleric, American Gordon Graham, had wanted to put his name forward but has not been allowed to enter the contest.

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The controversy over Cardinal Brady's involvement in the Brendan Smyth scandal has focussed attention on the relationship between the Catholic church and the state, north and south.

In part at least, the Cardinal's defence is that he did his duty so far as Church or Canon law is concerned. But even in 1975 in the Irish Republic, did sticking to Canon law afford someone any more protection than sticking, say, to the rules of the Church of Scientology? No doubt the question of what special exemptions existed for clerics will be tested definitively if and when the legal case brought by one of the victims, which prompted the latest revelations, goes to court.

Now the Catholic church's child protection procedures have been brought much more into line with the requirements of state law. But does the Church's failure to reform its protocols for so many decades provide any legal defence to those individuals who obeyed its rules, rather than the State's?

So far as the reaction of State leaders is concerned, the Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness has proved far more decisive than the Taoiseach who argued that it was for the church to sort out its own internal problems. In this regard, Mr McGuinness echoed similar sentiments from the Irish Green Party minister John Gormley.

But of course in the Deputy First Minister's case this involves layers of irony, as the 91Èȱ¬'s Talkback programme discussed, with members of the public asking how a self confessed IRA man in the 1970s could ask a priest to examine his own conscience from the same period.

Mr McGuinness would no doubt counter that so far as politically motivated violence is concerned there is now - to borrow a Catholic phrase - a general absolution for what went on during the IRA campaign, and when asked about matters of public importance today he has duty to show leadership.

Putting to one side whether he is or isn't the right man to deliver the message, listening to many of the calls and text messages to our programmes it seems the Deputy First Minister has his finger on the pulse and, notwithstanding today's apology, Cardinal Brady faces a stern test if he is to remain in his job.

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Answering questions in the chamber today the Environment Minister Edwin Poots suggested that some north south ministerial face to face meetings could be scrapped in favour of more environmentally friendly ways of talking, like telephone calls or video conferences. Sinn Fein's Daithi McKay, suspicious this was a cheap political shot, reminded the minister that he is obliged to fully participate in such meetings. However when he appeared on "Stormont Live" Mr Poots claimed not to be making a purely unionist point, arguing that some British Irish meetings could be substituted in a similar way.

Neither the DUP or Sinn Fein politicians, however, would concur with my suggestion that tomorrow's St. Patrick's jamboree in Washington D.C. could be replaced by a carbon friendly "Skype" video call from Stormont Castle to the White House.

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I began the day in the Stormont members dining room, where Sir Patrick Cormack and his Northern Ireland affairs committee were launching what they billed as their "most important" report yet. It covered the fallout from John Ware's Panorama documentary about Omagh, which suggested that intercept material from GCHQ had not been made available quickly enough to those investigating the 1998 bombing. The Committee expressed intense annoyance that their chairman had not been allowed to see Sir Peter Gibson's full report on the matter. They also called for a further investigation into how the intelligence was shared (or not shared) between the old RUC Special Branch and the investigating team.

Presumably because of the general disquiet at Westminster about the length and cost of the Bloody Sunday inquiry Sir Patrick's committee stopped short of accepting the Omagh families' demand for a full public inquiry.

However they did argue that the government should look in the future at funding civil cases taken by victims of terrorism, like the one launched by the Omagh families (which is currently being appealed). Sir Patrick told me this was not a panacea for all such cases, and appearing on Stormont Live the committee member Alasdair McDonnell argued that the criminal law must be the first resort. But if funding was more readily available it's easy to imagine other family groups resorting to the courts, perhaps in relation to events prior to 1998 in which they know that even if the perpetrators were prosecuted they would be subject to the early release scheme contained within the Good Friday Agreement.

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I'm just back from doing the Stormont Mile for Sport Relief. I hadn't realised my co-presenter Jim Fitzpatrick was organising it today, so didn't have my trainers with me. That's my excuse for strolling the course down to the Newtownards Road and back, and I'm sticking to it.

David Ford won, without any need for Sinn Fein and the DUP to fix the rules in advance for him. Gerry Kelly raced down the hill and back again, amidst shouts of "make way for the On the Runs". And Gregory Campbell walked the course with a sign pinned to his chest saying "Where's Nolan? He Can't Run" and another pinned to his back adding "And He Can't Hide".

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Jonathan Bell, the DUP's replacement for Iris Robinson in Strangford, followed her example last night when he got thrown out of the chamber by the Deputy Speaker John Dallat after accusing Caitriona Ruane of misleading the Assembly over the vexed issue of prep schools. At one point the Deputy Speaker halted proceedings to reprimand spectators ion the gallery for making too much noise, which prompted Ian Paisley to defend them on the grounds they were ignorant of the ruling. David McNarry broke into impromptu Ulster Scots telling the Deputy Speaker "Och, Go Away!" We'll have more on the rumbustious debate on this afternoon's Stormont Live.

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Jim Fitzpatrick left me gold fishing at the start of Stormont Live this afternoon when he asked me about our politicians in the States and the criticism Gerry Adams had faced of not being inclusive. A confession - the story about the West Belfast MP attending a men only club in Boston had quite passed me by. I felt like George Bush facing a pop quiz on who the leader of Pakistan was when he was on the campaign trail - groping hopelessly for the right answer. But by the end of the programme I'd belatedly done my homework catching up on the Sinn Fein President's visit to the

Mr Adams has welcomed today's arguing that it contains "interesting conclusions that show that many unionists no longer fear the prospect of Irish unity or are as against it as was once the case". Conversely Jeffrey Donaldson has taken heart from the suggestion that 26% of Catholics would vote to stay in the UK, expressing the hope that they will "vote for the Union at election contests. Nationalism is a failed ideology unlikely to deliver: more and more people from a Catholic background are coming to recognise that." So the pollsters appear to have proved that it is possible to please both sides at once.

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It's getting nasty already in the Strangford election campaign. Jim Shannon criticised Mike Nesbitt for being good on the air, rather than good on the ground. Mike retorted by saying Jim should stick to getting "potholes in Portaferry" fixed. Now Jim's right hand man Simon Hamilton has hit back by claiming that Mike would need a "sat nav" to find his way around the constituency, and noting that a Tory MP Ann Main has secured a Commons adjournment debate on "potholes and road maintenance".

One way to avoid the potholes would be to travel by water not road, which is an option for some Strangford voters. On which topic Jim has secured, by way of a a statement of support from the Culture Minister for local star Christine Bleakley's Sport Relief water ski across the English channel. Is the DUP man angling for a Bleakley (or indeed a Lampard) endorsement?

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Amongst the 70 or so texts Good Morning Ulster received in relation to their interview with the Catholic primate this morning, one timed at 7:46am read "this is disgraceful behaviour from Mark Devenport - Bishop Brady has explained himself countlessly".

As I was brushing my teeth at the time, I am a mite concerned someone could be sentencing me to a period in purgatory on the grounds of mistaken identity. The 91Èȱ¬ suffers from a multitude of Marks, and it wasn't Devenport or Simpson responsible for this morning's rigorous cross examination of the Cardinal, but Mr. Carruthers (who it should be noted got on balance more praise than criticism for his handling of such an important interview).

The travails of the Primate brings back memories of the 1994 crisis in which the Irish state's failure to act to promptly on an extradition request for Brendan Smyth led to the fall of the Fianna Fail Labour coalition. I remember covering the crisis at the time in my capacity as one of the 91Èȱ¬ Network News's Ireland Correspondents. After so many decades of inaction the speed with which the Irish government crumbled (within months of playing an important role in securing the IRA ceasefire) was quite incredible. Having provoked the fall of one Taoiseach, Albert Reynolds, could the paedophile priest play a part in pushing a Cardinal from office?

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Arlene Foster told the Politics Show that she is willing to step aside as a Westminster candidate in order to make way for a unionist unity runner in Fermanagh and South Tyrone. But despite the apparent willingness of some local UUP activists to discuss an accommodation, any local investigation of pact possibilities continue to appear likely to founder on the rock of the Conservative and Ulster Unionist pledge to field candidates in all 18 seats.

I caught up with the Tory NI spokesman Owen Paterson, who is in the USA for St Patrick's Day and found him unimpressed by the Enterprise Minister's readiness to sacrifice her parliamentary ambitions. He characterised the DUP as a "minor local party" and pledged to offer voters in Fermanagh as elsewhere the chance to vote for a cross UK party.

Some unionists see the entry of the SDLP's Fearghal McKinney as a development which will weaken Michelle Gildernew, making Sinn Fein's difficulty a single unionist's opportunity. But despite that, and the courtship of former senior police officer Norman Baxter, as things stand this argument looks likely to go round in circles.

P.S. Some may resent our politicians heading off in droves to celebrate St Patrick's with President Obama. But spare a thought for my Inside Politics interviewee Owen Paterson who suffered cancelled flight connections, waterlogged luggage and hardly any sleep en route. I contacted him on an Amtrak train as he tried to make his way from New York to Washington D.C. Fortunately his mobile phone line was good enough to record an interview, but Mr Paterson had to keep his voice down throughout our conversation to avoid waking his fellow passenger slumbering in the next seat!

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The DUP's Strangford selection meeting sets up an intriguing contrast in styles between the candidates for the two main unionist parties, each vying to step into Iris Robinson's designer shoes.

In the Conservative and Unionist corner we have Mike Nesbitt, the smooth candidate, whilst the DUP now have Jim Shannon, with his rougher rural edge. Jim was on the airwaves this morning emphasising that whilst Mike might be good on the air, he will be good on the ground - delivering for the farmers and fishers, telling people how to fill out their DLA forms and so on. Essentially, the canny local politician is pointing to his track record over decades. But UCUNF may counter by saying that a lot of that stuff is well and truly devolved, and this is a battle for Westminster.

It made me wonder whether we should have a version of the old medieval combat, in which knights are tested on a variety of competencies, such as "trial by fire" or "trial by ice". Mike could be expected to excel at a Hearts and Minds debate, or maybe a US style "Town Hall meeting" where he roves around speaking (al la David Cameron) without notes. But to add balance, huntin' and shootin' Jim should be given a round of "field sports" and both candidates should be required to skin a rabbit against the clock.

Somewhere in the mix we have to throw in a bit of Ulster Scots, and the contest could culminate with a round of 91Èȱ¬ 1's "Total Wipeout" (this is not relevant to either devolved or reserved matters but would appeal to the kids).

But seriously folks, whilst most people may welcome an influx of new talent into politics here (now the troubles are hopefully receding into the past) are we in danger of adding an echelon of hacks and PR operatives to the layer of lawyers we already have telling us what to do?

Anyone listening to my old Stormont press pack colleague Fearghal McKinney on the radio yesterday will be in little doubt that he can "talk the talk". But only the next few months and years will establish whether he and Mike Nesbitt can "walk the walk".

Where are the entrepreneurs, engineers and scientists in the rush to elected office? The answer is probably that they are concentrating on making money or doing their best to survive the downturn.

The Finance Minister Sammy Wilson is due to make a speech later today in Dundalk stressing the need for the Executive to refocus on the economy. As a hack, I can get up on my feet and talk vaguely convincingly about the need to "grow the private sector", to create "high value jobs", and to promote "innovation". But ask me to invent something or to turn around a struggling firm and I would almost certainly founder. Hopefully the new generation of local politicians will be more multi-skilled than me.

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During Stormont Live Arlene Foster said she hoped the interim report of a working group on improving the operations of the Stormont Executive should be completed before the ministers have their next round table meeting inside Stormont Castle on Thursday.

The Ulster Unionist have been looking for an effective extension of the veto powers currently enjoyed by the DUP and Sinn Fein to the two smaller members of the coalition. Danny Kennedy explained it as any two parties being able to "pause" proposals they did not like.

Sinn Fein (who were represented on the working group by Caitriona Ruane) rejected the idea, but the DUP sympathised with it. Peter Robinson says that in the context of the UUP supporting today's vote he had offered not use his party's votes "to over ride the votes any three ministers". The First Minister added that despite today's UUP opposition he is prepared to repeat this offer "in circumstances where the UUP and the SDLP approach executive business in good faith". So watch this space for any evidence of real change in the way the Stormont Executive works.

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Michael McGimpsey was the subject of much ire from Peter Robinson during his closing speech in today's debate. The Health Minister had asked on Good morning Ulster whether a local future Sinn Fein Justice Minister would support the Chief Constable should he need to request army support in the event of an upsurge in civil unrest. Apart from rejecting the suggestion that Sinn Fein might get the job after 2012 the DUP are calling the "army support" question "complete claptrap". They insist that the Chief Constable will have operational independence.

NIO guidance on this score is that if the Chief Constable made an application for large scale army support "the Department of Justice would be informed of all such applications. The Secretary of State would lead on the deployment as the Armed Forces remain an excepted matter under Schedule 2 to the Northern Ireland Act 1998."

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I've been in a blogging Bermuda Triangle for most of the afternoon - it's known as sitting in the studio for "Stormont Live". So I haven't been able to give you a blow by blow account of the afternoon proceedings, but by the Assembly's standards it's been pretty lively stuff.

As I write the division bell is ringing and the MLAs are preparing to troop through the lobbies. The only question is how many DUP MLAs will walk through the "yes" door. Earlier on Stormont Live Arlene Foster told us the entire DUP team would be voting with the exception of Willie McCrea who is at a funeral.

The entire UUP team is expected to vote "No", with the exception of Bob Coulter who is over at Buckingham palace picking up an MBE.

P.S. Martina Purdy has just returned from the Press gallery. She says all the DUP MLAs voted "yes" with the exception of Willie Hay, who as Speaker does not vote, and Willie McCrea for the reasons outlined above.

So the die is cast - at least until 2012 when the "sunset clause" on this cross community arrangement kicks in.

P.P.S. The vote breakdown was (with 105 MLAs voting)

52 unionists voted - 35 voted "yes" - that's 34 DUP MLAs plus Dawn Purvis. 17 UUP MLAs voted against. All the 44 nationalists backed devolving justice. 9 of the cross community MLAs (Alliance plus Brian Wilson and Kieran Deeney) voted in favour.

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Our MLAs are taking a break. They will be back in their chamber after 2pm. During the lunchtime period Sinn Fein politicians went "on the run", taking part in a running event to promote the Irish language.

Moments before the photo call Martin McGuinness was also a man on the move - this time he just kept walking when the victims campaigner Willie Fraser tried to serve a writ upon him in the Stormont Great Hall.

Earlier in the chamber Danny Kennedy hit back at the Deputy First Minister saying his party wouldn't give way to blackmail. He called on Shaun Woodward to pack his bags before the General Election. He also described David Ford as the Joseph Kavanagh of of local politics saying no issue was too expendable (that's a reference to an old Belfast businessman who offered to buy and sell anything).

The DUP's Ian Paisley Jr. made a highly charged speech referring to the widow of Stephen Carroll and took an intervention from Jeffrey Donaldson who asked which way the Newry courthouse bombers would have wanted MLAs to vote. So you can take it that's a "yes" from the DUP.

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Martin McGuinness has now opened the justice debate, with a full frontal attack on the Ulster Unionists. He described the devolution of justice as a "no brainer" and accused the UUP of cynicism in their opposition. So no change there since the showdown in his office last night.

Jim Allister, who is a guest on this lunchtime's "Talkback" programme just put his head round the door of our Stormont office. He is wearing a snowman badge on his lapel - he claims it's Nigel Dodds.

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Well Hillary Clinton and the Friends of Ireland I could have predicted. But George W. Bush? That one did come out of left field. Apparently the US authorities thought a "Conservative to Conservative" approach might yield results. But it was Ian Paisley who had a close bond to Dubya, not the UUs (famously the former First Minister purloined a paper weight from the desk of the former President and never returned it).

My lasting recollection of Dubya's involvement in Northern Ireland wasn't his visit here, but a few remarks he made from his Texas ranch back in 2004 when he confirmed he'd engaged in some telephone diplomacy then continued, without drawing breath "anything else I can do to help to keep the process moving forward, I'm more than willing to do so.
So listen, I've got to go eat a burger. Thank you, all."

That prompted CNN to dub the burger remark the "best line of the day".

The Conservatives have responded by insisting on the record that they can't force the Ulster Unionists to change their minds. But off the record they are muttering about the Secretary of State Shaun Woodward who they have a suspicion might be "playing politics" with Northern Ireland. The evidence is circumstantial - Mr Woodward was in the States last week, and the stories about US Congressmen and President Bush have appeared in the Labour leaning "Guardian".

One Conservative source claimed that anyone with the slightest knowledge of Northern Ireland would have known that the recent interventions and polls were more likely to push the Ulster Unionists into voting "no" than persuade them to back today's vote. In that context the source asked whether Mr Woodward was naive or was intent on manipulating a situation in which the Ulster Unionists voted "no" and could then be used to make political capital against the Conservatives.

No doubt the Secretary of State would reject that assertion. Right now DUP Assembly members appear to have been rather verbose in dealing with a housing bill before the chamber. We are waiting for the minister, Margaret Ritchie, to conclude before examining what drama if any unfolds in the justice debate.

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It's been a hot and heavy end to the day at Stormont with a bemused Sir Reg Empey complaining about Martin McGuinness throwing him and his colleagues out of his Deputy First Minister's Office, after they objected to being "lectured" about their supposed anti-agreement stance.

The Ulster Unionists had started the day fulminating against Shaun Woodward over his eve of vote poll

Then came further poll woes with the release of a similar

Both surveys included some rather leading questions. For example respondents were asked to agre or disagree with the statement "I believe we should transfer policing and justice powers to Stormont so that the Executive can get on with the job of improving life for everyone in Northern Ireland."

That said there is some interesting stuff in the OFMDFM survey about people's desire for the First and Deputy First to work together, and the gap between this aspiration and how well people think the Executive is doing its job. Additionally less than half those interviewed felt well informed about what the Executive is doing (maybe that's my fault!)

Neither the NIO nor the OFMDFM released figures on which parties those interviewed supported, even though both polls were apparently conducted on a representative sample of 1000 people. However I have obtained some figures on this score which appear to show the DUP well in the lead of the UUP and record a surprisingly low score fof the TUV. There have long been doubts about the reliability of NI polls when it comes to voting intentions and this is maybe born out by an equally surprising set of low figures for Sinn Fein in comparison to the SDLP. I don't know how many people in the NIO commissioned survey declined to answer, but I gather that in the OFMDFM poll 26% of those who were interviewed over the phone refused to say which party they backed, whilst 13% gave no affiliation.

So, as ever, a note of caution. But these are the figures given me unofficially.

NIO commissioned poll

DUP 26%
SDLP 21%
TUV 1%
PUP 1%
SF17%
UUP 14%
Alliance 8%
Green 4%
Conservative 2%
Workers Party 2%
RSF 1%
UKUP 1%

OFMDFM Commissioned Poll

DUP 30%
UUP 19%
SDLP 19%
SF 16%
Alliance 11%
TUV 2%
PUP 1%
Others 3%

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That's what would generally be called a "tease", as I have no plans to stand for any party. But after the Mike Nesbitt candidacy in Strangford it seems like everyone is fair game. The most recent rumours concern the former UTV presenter Fearghal McKinney, who has been linked to the SDLP in Fermanagh South Tyrone. A few moments ago in the Great Hall the SDLP leader Margaret Ritchie refused to be drawn on the rumours. But the latest line from Ferghal is that "the short answer is no". We are still awaiting the long answer.

My colleague Martina Purdy has been approached by the "Shopping Should Be A Subsidised Sport Party", but she is zealously protecting her journalistic independence.

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I got away earlier than I had expected from the Sinn Fein Ard Fheis and caught the train back up to Belfast. When I got home I found myself being unexpectedly brought along to a surprise birthday party for a friend being held, wait for it, in an Orange Hall. So from the fraternal greetings described earlier at the Ard Fheis to being pressed into folk dancing to an accordion in an Orange hall. Has anyone got a better example of such a sudden switch from one environment to another?

Disgusted in Derry - I don't remember saying anything one way or the other about the Palestinian/Israeli conflict, so I don't know how you can presume to know my views. If you want more on my journalistic thoughts on the Middle East try getting hold of a copy of my book "Flash Frames" in which I wrote about the time I spent in Jerusalem for the 91Èȱ¬.

Now though I have an Inside Politics programme to produce which will include interviews with Gerry Adams and Shaun Woodward, with both looking forward to Tuesday's vote on the devolution of justice and talking about the dissidents a year after the Masserene murders. As usual the programme is on air straight after the one o'clock news on 91Èȱ¬ Radio Ulster.

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Some things don't change at Sinn Fein conferences - I am just listening to the fraternal greetings from the Basque and Palestinian and ANC observers. There's less of a whiff of cordite about this conference than those fifteen years ago, but still a lot of talk about support for international struggles.

I have just finished a colour piece on the conference for the main website which you can

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I took the early train down to the Sinn Fein Ard Fheis in Dublin, so wasn't present last night when Martin McGuinness accused Sir Reg Empey of a dismal failure in political leadership. That was his response to the Ulster Unionists withholding their support from the Hillsborough deal at this stage.

In the past we have witnessed potentially historic decisions being taken by Sinn Fein delegates, so it's a bit of a change this year when the Ulster Unionists appear instead to be in the box seat.

The more relaxed atmosphere gave me time to ponder some of the side attractions at the Ard Fheis - hurley sticks on sale commemorating Michael Collins and Bobby Sands, Tiocfaidh Ar La mousemats and a republican mineral water poster, labelled "Only Our Rivers Run Free".

The clar or agenda has a handy guide at the front to Irish phrases likely to be used from the platform. One motion advocates all party material to be printed bi-lingually incuding "raffle tickets" and "dinner dance tickets".

A South Sligo cumann wants the use of plastic coated campaign posters for all parties to be eliminated - let's watch for this one to be implemented in time for the Westminster election.

A Lucan branch opposes any move to relocate the Abbey Theatre to the GPO building, maintaining that any future plans for the site should only include a museum marking the 1916 rising.

As I write Mary Lou McDonald is on stage attacking the current coalition in Dublin as confused and chaotic. However Sinn Fein wants the option of joining a future coalition - last night the leadership beat off an attempt by some grassroots supporters to rule out any deal with Fianna Fail or Fine Gael.

Martin McGuinness will again take to the stage soon, whilst Gerry Adams isn't due until this evening. His speech will be broadcast later on 91Èȱ¬2. I'm expecting them both to stand behind Caitriona Ruane's education policy and to reject the UUP's demands for a rethink on academic selection as a price for backing the Hillsborough deal.

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A blog reader has passed me some information gleaned under Freedom of Information about Peter Robinson's salary during the three week period he stepped down as First Minister. The Assembly has confirmed that his First Minister salary wasn't reduced during this time, which I reckon (although my maths is a bit dodgy) amounts to about £4000. However during her acting-up period the Enterprise Minister Arlene Foster did not get any increase in her wages. So no financial recompense then for having the columnist Quentin Letts call her an Aeroflot stewardess, after watching her at the despatch box filling in for Mr Robinson.

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That was the biblical paraphrase one of the Bloody Sunday victims used on the Nolan Show this morning to describe last night's apology from David Ford for his infelicitous description of the Saville inquiry as "pointless". Eamon McCann expressed his scepticism about what he regards as a "Save Dave" operation mounted over the last 24 hours. To borrow a phrase from another historic case, it looks like Sinn Fein surveyed the potentially "appalling vista" of losing the most plausible candidate for Justice Minister and did what they could to extricate the Alliance leader from the mess. Sinn Fein's failure to rule him out, and their attempt to try to turn some of their opprobrium on the SDLP for allegedly leaking the story, means the Ford candidacy is still alive. Alliance may breath a sigh of relief that Tuesday's vote is on the principle of devolving justice rather than the choice of an individual as minister.

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The DUP say that they were left on their own in a Westminster committee this week voting against 50/50 recruitment to the police. When the Draft Police (Northern Ireland) Act 2000 (Renewal of Temporary Provisions) Order 2010 was put to a vote, all the other parties, including the Conservatives, voted in favour. The DUP now want UCUNF candidates to spell out where they stand on 50/50, with the Ulster Unionists who oppose it or the Conservatives who voted for it?

This is just a taster, no doubt, of the many thin ends of the wedge the DUP will be seeking to insert between the UUP and the Tories as the election looms closer. Although weren't all three of them chatting about maybe becoming one in the not too distant past?

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Who managed to find half a million pounds for the West Belfast Irish language centre, An Culturlann? According to a Sinn Fein press release, Gerry Adams "revealed that with the help of the Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness, half a million pounds has now been cleared by the DCAL Minister." So congratulations Martin McGuinness and Nelson McCausland.

But not so fast, because Social Development department sources say their minister Margaret Richie was responsible for putting the funding package together, which Ms Ritchie describes as "great news for the people of West Belfast".

What's Irish for a "tug of love"?

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Alliance say it's an old story - but the reference I made to David Ford's errant e-mail on this blog back in November was little more than a glancing reference, given that we did not have the text of his e-mail at that stage. There's little doubt that the full version has now been leaked because it's a more politically damaging time. But whatever the motivation for the leak, the disclosure that the Alliance leader referred to the Bloody Sunday inquiry as "pointless" poses him some difficulties ahead of the final nomination of a future Justice Minister. That said, the fact that Sinn Fein accompanied their criticism by suggesting Mr Ford should meet with the Bloody Sunday families could be a hint that they are prepared to help him find a way to extricate himself from his extended e-mail woes. As I write I gather that meeting is due to take place tonight.

Of course whether or not we have a local Justice Minister will depend to a large extent on next Tuesday's vote in the Assembly. The UUP continue to insist that the time is not right for devolving justice whilst the DUP argue (as Nigel Dodds did on Inside Politics) that they won't go it alone without UUP support.

However a number of things are happening behind the scenes. Sir Reg Empey has been having meetings with the DUP and Sinn Fein. The Ulster Unionist leader is also co-chairing with Margaret Ritchie a working group on improving the operations of the Executive which was set up as part of the Hillsborough deal. Caitriona Ruane and Arlene Foster are the Sinn Fein and DUP representatives on the committee. An interim report from that group is believed to be imminent.

The group has been looking at housekeeping matters - such as allowing SDLP and UUP advisors to attend Executive meetings and stopping policy papers being sprung on the smaller parties at the last minute. But there's also talk of more radical measures to change the way the Executive operates, with some sources talking about extending the vetoes currently enjoyed by the DUP and Sinn Fein to the UUP and the SDLP.

That might please the smaller parties, but couldn't it be a recipe for yet more deadlock? Back in his Ulster Hall speech last September the DUP leader Peter Robinson pledged that "in circumstances where the UUP and SDLP make a good faith effort to work constructively on matters in the Executive DUP Ministers would insist that all decisions will only be taken by consensus and we will not use our votes to override their opposition." But the UUP and the SDLP would want more than a promise from the DUP to satisfy them.

Other UUP concerns which have been raised (outside the Hillsborough sub committee) include changing the way the First and Deputy First Ministers are chosen in order to stave off the prospect of a Sinn Fein First Minister in the future, making real progress on academic selection and appointing a UUP minister to the justice portfolio rather than Alliance.

Which brings us back to David Ford's e-mail difficulties. I remain convinced he's long been the DUP and Sinn Fein's first choice for the job, but could his throw away Bloody Sunday remark make the prospect of a UUP minister more attractive to Sinn Fein? Much will now depend on the response of the Bloody Sunday famiiles when they meet the Alliance leader tonight.

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So ian Paisley has decided not to run again in North Antrim. No surprise there despite the contrary signals he sent out in interviews for the House magazine and elsewhere. Anyone who watched him closely in recent months would have moved towards the conclusion that he seemed ready to retire.

Breaking the news to the Ballymena Guardian, the former DUP leader said that the Official Unionist Henry Clark's decision to burn his picture had spurred him to contest North Antrim. There's no doubt that this year's election battle is shaping up to be every bit as much an incendiary contest.

The other DUP MLA in the constituency, Mervyn Storey, is making it clear that he is backing Ian Paisley Junior as candidate. This sets the scene for a battle royal between Ian Junior and the Traditional Unionist leader Jim Allister.

Although the DUP have a majority of almost 18,000, Mr Allister polled well in North Antrim during last year's European elections. Some tallies reckoned he outpolled the DUP candidate Diane Dodds. However facing a Paisley, albeit the junior version, will present a different challenge.

Expect clashes across the full range of issues, from the principle of power sharing, to the outgoing MP's attendance record at Westminster and Ian Junior's lobbying activities on the margins of the St. Andrews' talks. Ian Junior will focus, as he did on Good Morning Ulster, on what he would view as the negativity of the TUV message. Fasten your seat belts, it could be a bumpy ride!

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Others may have decided the chances of a punning journalist making fun were too high to press ahead, but not the UUP MLA for Upper Bann. Sam Gardiner wants more children to become gardeners. He admits that "with a name like mine, it was inevitable I would be interested in gardening". Mr Gardiner sits on the board of governors of two primary schools where the children grow beans, peas, lettuce and have apple trees. He wants the local media to sponsor a competition to encourage more children to grow their own.

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The new SDLP leader has given an interview to Jilly Beattie in the Mirror in which much is made of her unzipping her black knee length boots. But Ms Ritchie makes it clear that she is wedded to her party alone, telling the Mirror "I was always rubbish at having boyfriends. I'd have one for a day and then I'd be bored and that would be the end of that." Also if Margaret invites you around to dinner, think twice. Questioned about her culinary skills she says "I can do the cereal in the bowl with the milk, the whole nine yards - but that's it."

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