Collapsing Stormont
Martin McGuinness didn't answer my colleague Mark Simpson's question directly when asked whether he might resign, instead resorting to the more generalised warning of a "full blown crisis".
But given the way in which the Deputy First Minister and other Sinn Fein politicians are increasingly talking themselves into a corner over a date for the devolution of justice, and the awful mood music around Stormont, it's entirely possible we could be looking at a threat to the stability of the institutions early in the New Year.
Clearly the British and Irish governments will try to forestall this with more frantic activity this side of Christmas. This could involve talking up the process now underway to identify a potential Justice Minister (David Ford still seems the most likely candidate), working to close the gap on parading by suggesting a marriage of the best elements of the current Parades Commission and the tribunals proposed in the Ashdown report, and maybe trying to encourage the parties to consider parading and other thorny issues like the Irish language and expanded north south cooperation in parallel with a step forwards on justice, rather than as a precondition.
But say all that fails? What then? Sinn Fein could adopt the same tactic used for five months last year in refusing to enable the Executive to meet. But that was unpopular with voters across the board, and would surely do republicans no favours.
Alternatively the Deputy First Minister could resign. Under the Good Friday Agreement this would have set a six week clock ticking for the re-election of both the First and Deputy First Ministers, which if it did not happen would trigger a fresh election. However this was amended in the St Andrews Agreement Act 2006 to a period of just seven days.
The ball then bounces into Shaun Woodward's court, because under the original 1998 Act he has the duty to "propose a date for the poll for the election of the next Assembly". But it's worth noting that nothing in the legislation specifies exactly when that date should be. It's not beyond anyone's imagination to believe that in these circumstances the Northern Ireland Office might play for time, stretching matters out to allow for more negotiations which might ease any crisis.
From the NIO viewpoint, it might be better to hold negotiations with the existing cast list of players rather than deal with the permutations potentially thrown up by a new Assembly election, which could see a number of TUV MLAs returned to Stormont, unionism split three ways and Sinn Fein coming in as the biggest party.
But say the NIO decided after some time that they had no option but to call an election, because a reasonable period had passed and they were becoming susceptible to a legal challenge. This brings us once again to the pros and cons the Deputy First Minister must be weighing up as he assesses his options. Attempting to trigger an election has some immediate appeal for Sinn Fein. They see the SDLP still embroiled in a leadership battle and must hope to badly dent their rivals by holding out to nationalist voters the carrot of Sinn Fein taking the top place at Stormont.
Yet this could be a pyrrhic victory as, in these circumstances, we would be likely to see unionists refuse to share power and all parties plunged into fresh talks with increasing demands for a move to a voluntary coalition supported by weighted majority voting - something Sinn Fein views as a conspiracy to exclude them from government. Sinn Fein may take solace from the imposition of a "green tinged" direct rule, but that would still have limited attractions compared to being in office.
Sinn Fein's Plan A must remain to achieve devolution of justice in the short term rather than to get it embroiled in the renegotiation which may be coming their way anyway in 2011. Holding out the prospect of imminent collapse, though, serves a purpose because it keeps the pressure on the DUP, who republicans believe are nervously looking over their shoulder at the prospect of an Assembly election challenge from Jim Allister's Traditional Unionists. The message is "do a deal or face your electoral nemesis".
If collapsing Stormont isn't Sinn Fein's Plan A, that's not to say the latest rhetoric is all hot air and republicans won't dare pull the plug. Neither Martin McGuinness nor Peter Robinson know entirely what is in each other's minds, or how much room for manouevre the other has. Once dire threats are made, it's hard for a political leader to walk away without putting at least some of their money where their mouth once resided.
To paraphrase the old Chinese curse "may you live in interesting times", it looks like we are in for a fascinating Christmas and an even more engrossing New Year.
I'm 
Comments