91Èȱ¬

I'm just off air on Evening Extra where I was explaining why MLAs pulled the motion which would have given them a £7000 wage hike from 2011. The on the record reason is that the SDLP and the DUP told the Speaker party leaders hadn't been sufficiently consulted on the proposal from the Assembly commmission. They also argued that a vote for a salary increase would pre-empt the job of a new independent statutory body now being processed through Westminster.

However others, such as Alliance's Sean Neeson, argue that the Stormont parties were consulted well in advance (after all the Assembly Commission consists of their nominees). So were they running scared of the public reaction after last week's leak of the pay rise and Sinn Fein's vocal opposition?

Anyway, pending a ruling from a new body, the MLAs have taken a temporary vow of poverty. My former colleague has pointed out to me that our ministers haven't apparently spent a lot of time examining poverty recently - according to a written answer given to the SDLP's Mary Bradley set up in November last year has only met twice - once when it was formed and once in May. A third meeting is due this week.

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• - What's this?

According to that's how many of us are going to be around next year. picks out Dungannon and Craigavon as the fastest growing areas.

I was somewhat surprised to read that the majority of births in Belfast these days are outside marriage. According to the DFP, "last year, 39% of all births in Northern Ireland occurred outside marriage. However this varies from area to area. In Belfast (57%) and Derry (50%) Local Government Districts at least half of births were outside marriage. Whereas, in Magherafelt (24%) and Omagh (24%) Local Government Districts less than one-quarter of births were outside marriage."

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Last week Peter Robinson emerged from Downing Street calling for more progress on replacing the Parades Commission. Martin McGuinness countered by calling the linkage of that demand to the devolution of justice "preposterous".

The DUP claim republicans themselves linked parading to the transfer of policing powers when they refused to allow the publication of the Ashdown report. That report suggested replacing the current parades Commission with a series of tribunals appointed by the OFMDFM. Although the relationship between Stormont and the politicians is meant to be arm's length the track record of the OFMDFM on decision making doesn't inspire confidence.

The abolition of the Parades Commission would undoubtedly build confidence so far as the Orange Order is concerned. But it would annoy many nationalists, and even the Police Federation has expressed its own concerns. With a contentious parade due in North Belfast next weekend, commemorating the UVF member the issue was the subject of a DUP SDLP debate on yesterday's Inside Politics.

NIO figures may well be scurrying around trying to come up with inventive solutions to the latest marching stand-off (a mixture of the current Commission and the Ashdown proposals?) but they are getting little thanks for their efforts from Sinn Fein's National Chairperson Declan Kearney, who yesterday accused them of pursuing an "anti-republican, pro-unionist agenda".

This is the second time Mr Kearney has been used as Sinn Fein's conveyor of an uncompromising message (previously he warned that things might be heading for Both times he has wrapped the British government together with the DUP (which may be news to those who have witnessed how anxious Shaun Woodward is to get a deal). Both times the DUP has responded by saying they would not bow to threats or "tantrums". This morning Gregory Campbell hit back by telling 91Èȱ¬ Radio Foyle it could be "years" before justice is devolved.

Apart from telling the DUP they are following a "train wreck strategy", Mr Kearney hit out at the recent SOCA raids on republicans in South Armagh and rejected any re-deployment of military units.

Asked by a 91Èȱ¬ reporter after making his speech at Dunloy whether his talk that "political consequences will be inevitable" amounted to a threat to walk out of the Stormont Executive, Mr Kearney said that "the present political situation is unsustainable and unacceptable". Pushed on whether Sinn Fein would walk away from the institutions, he added "the ball is in the DUP's court".

All of which means that Gordon Brown and Brian Cowen will have their work cut out when they meet in Downing Street later today.

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Alliance and the Liberal Democrats are accusing the UK Borders Agency of "intransigence" and engaging in "semantics" when devolved politicians try to make representations on immigration cases. The parties claim the Agency will deal with members of the Scottish parliament, but refuses to handle representations from MLAs or their counterparts in the Welsh assembly.

The Lib Dem NI spokesperson Alistair Carmichael raised the matter with Harriet Harman in the Commons, arguing that the Borders Agency "should not be in the business of dictating to citizens who they should go to in order to get help with immigration problems."

I've asked the 91Èȱ¬ Office for a response and will let you know if and when they get back to me.

UPDATE: The 91Èȱ¬ Office has given me the following quote from the Immigration Minister Phil Woolas. "Immigration is a matter reserved to the UK Government and Westminster Parliament. It is essential that the lines of accountability are clear on this important issue. Constituents can continue to raise any concerns and have their cases represented by their Westminster MP. This position concerns constituency correspondence via letter or MP's enquiry line only. The UK Border Agency will continue to engage with all levels of Government, as it would any interested party, on general or policy issues."

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Not a plug for the new for (although I did rather enjoy it when I saw it at Newtownards recently), but a reference to the deliberations of today's Enterprise Committee on the advisability of sending out Christmas cards in these tough economic times.

Some MLAs thought it would be Scrooge like if they didn't send anygreetings, others pointed to the example set by other Stormont committtees who are confining themselves to e-cards.

Eventually the chair, Alban Maginness, joked that he and his deputy chair, Paul Butler, could split the £37 cost of sending out cards to 36 relevant local organisations.

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When I reported back in February 2008, that MLAs could be in line for a 16% pay rise, I was criticised by some politicians for being premature and inaccurate. In the succeeding weeks it became clear that the body which recommends MLA wage rates, the SSRB, had dropped its grading of our Assembly members from being worth 82% of an MP down to just 75% of an MP.

However I notice in the Belfast Telegraph's analysis of the Assembly Commission's proposed that the uplift could amount to 17%. So maybe I was underestimating!

Sinn Fein has already come out against the increase, but the problem for the politicians is that there will never be a good time so far as the public is concerned for such a rise. In the meantime, the MLAs will fall further and further behind their counterparts in Scotland and Wales (never mind the 100,000 euros TDs get).

That's why most parties take the line that they shouldn't vote on their own pay - so it puts the blame for any rise on to an unelected review body. One alternative approach, given the large number of politicians we have per capita, would be to keep the Stormont total wage bill much the same but reduce the overall number of MLAs - meaning that the individual surviving politicians would take a greater piece of the pie.

Checking back on my archive to find the original salary story, I came across this entry on the local fall out from the revelations about the Tory MP Derek Conway employing his son. Like salaries, nepotism hasn't gone out of the news since then.

The new reveals that around a third of our MLAs still employ a family member. There's no sign of the Assembly Commission following the example of Sir Christopher Kelly in proposing a ban on family members. John O'Dowd told the Nolan show that other parties should follow Sinn Fein's example in employing workers centrally rather than individual politicians hiring their own nearest and dearest.

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Introducing the launch of a report on Northern Ireland politicians' efforts to assist their Iraqi counterparts to build a peace process, the DUP's Jim Wells quipped that the assembled cross party gathering passed the "ceiling test", namely that it would be a true calamity for society if the ceiling came down and killed all of those present. One nearby MLA murmured "I'm not sure the public would agree with that".

I joined the Iraq event late assuming it was a news conference, clutching my lunch of half a pint of milk and a cheese and tomato baguette. Instead I found myself at a reception with lots of finger food provided.

The Speaker, Willie Hay, commenting on the risks being run for peace, recounted how one foreign President visiting Stormont had been accompanied by an official food taster employed to prevent any attempts at assassination. Although I have recently incurred the wrath of Assembly officials for getting my sums wrong on their roadshows, I was only joking when I assured nearby MLAs that I had brought my own cheese and tomato roll on the basis that it was better to be safe than sorry.

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The Washington Post publisher Philip Graham is credited with calling journalism "the first rough draft of history". But when is a draft, a draft?

Earlier today a Stormont source told me that Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness had drafted a letter to the other Stormont parties inviting them to nominate their candidates for the future Justice department. But then another source insisted it wasn't a draft just " a few words on paper". Either way, the words have not been worked up into the form that the two ministers are ready to sign and put in the internal post.

My original source told me not to make too much of this as it was an administrative, rather than a political move. But certainly if such a letter were sent out it would contrast with statements like the one Gregory Campbell made on the Nolan show this morning when he doubted whether a date for devolving justice could be set before Christmas - something Martin McGuinness previously warned would spell "deep trouble".

Within the last hour I had a chat with the US Economic Envoy, Declan Kelly, who remains optimistic that the First and Deputy First are "working through the issues" and can achieve a "desirable outcome".

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Correspondents used to compete in the letters page of the Times to register the first cuckoo of the spring. A colleague tells me he recently spotted an Alban Maginness SDLP European election poster on a post close to Junction One, the Antrim Ballymena turn off from the M2. Is this a record? Any nominations for other long lasting election posters?

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Was Jim Shannon inspired by the recent to ask a question about whether the Environment Minister was aware of any plans to reintroduce wolves and beavers into Northern Ireland as has been the case in parts of Scotland? Edwin Poots responded by saying he has no plans to introduce wolves or beavers.

Given Jim's track record on wildlife, in particular his fondness for shooting doves, one wonders why he's so keen for these furry animals to be returned to the wild. Does he fancy them for target practice?

I have an image in my head of Jim as a character from the children's book, blattering away with his gun at the big bad wolves.

I have to declare an interest - many moons ago I had a small role on the Edinburgh Fringe as "Mr Beaver" in "The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe". So whilst I'd like to seem them re-introduced, I'm not sure about Jim Shannon's intentions.

That circuitous link enables me to recommend a trip through the wardrobe door at which has turned itself into Narnia for the Christmas season. I attended an official launch of the Narnia tour at the weekend, where C.S. Lewis expert, Sandy Smith, pointed out how much County Down meant to the Narnia author. He quoted Lewis's definition of heaven as "Oxford, planted in County Down". As an Oxonian living in Down, you won't find me contradicting that.

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That's the price of democracy - or the price at any rate of the Assembly roadshows divided by the number of people who attended them. According to a written answer given to the DUP MLA the recent roadshows, meant to bring Stormont closer to the people, cost more than £54,690 to stage, plus an additional £19,759 in advertising. That gives a grand total of £74,449. Given that 538 people turned up to the 11 meetings that's a cost per head of £138.

That includes £5035 on a meeting at the Park Avenue hotel in East Belfast at which only one MLA turned up because of late voting at Stormont and £3384 for an Antrim roadshow which had to be postponed because it clashed with another late vote.

CORRECTION: Assembly officials have contacted me to point out that their £54,690 figure INCLUDES advertising. So I was wrong to add the two sums together - the roadshows DID NOT cost £74,449. That obviously has a knock on effect on my arithmetic. So what's the price of democracy? £101, not £138. Apologies to all concerned.

P.S. It also seems right to point out that the roadshow presenter Eamon Mallie either took no money for his appearances, or donated his fee to charity.

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I'm just back from the rain sodden La Mon hotel in County Down where I was helping out on our live coverage of the DUP conference. I've been asked to contribute a "colour " piece to our main news website so you should hopefully be able to see my more extended thoughts

In brief, though, this was a well attended occasion in which the party staked its round for the next election. It has decided its best option is to forge ahead with its committment to power sharing mounting a more full blooded justification of the decisions taken by Ian Paisley back in 2007.

Peter Robinson still maintained a fair degree of ambiguity over the timing of the transfer of justice powers, but London and Dublin are likely to take heart from the tone of his speech, in which he tried to portray his critics (especially Jim Allister) as "unionist cave dwellers".

Although the DUP leader said Stormont's future couldn't be guaranteed, he added that his party wouldn't walk away.

I shall have an interview with Mr Robinson on Inside Politics on 91Èȱ¬ Radio Ulster tomorrow after the one o'clock news.

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The DUP has released a 35 page document on the eve of its annual conference under the optimistic title of If you were to read Peter Robinson's foreword you might conclude that the party is about make a great leap forward.

The party leader says that "once again unionism faces a choice in the next few years. Do we build on what we have achieved or risk throwing it all away chasing unrealisable goals?" And he continues "we have restored devolution on satisfactory terms, now is the time to take the next step forward".

So are we on the brink of transferring justice powers? Hold on to your horses, because the next step the First Minister appears to be referring to is reforming the Stormont system. After mounting a spirited defence of the DUP's decision to do a deal with Sinn Fein two years ago as "a choice between emotion and reason", the paper revisits Peter Robinson's Ulster Hall speech. It once again pushes weighted majority voting at the Assembly and how the workings of the Executive might be improved - the DUP reckons that has been the biggest structural difficulty at Stormont.

A section titled "the next steps forward" brings together the need to deliver better government with the devolution of policing and justice. It doesn't give much away noting "we have already agreed the institutional arrangements. Now it is necessary to resolve the financial issues and ensure the requisite community confidence exists."

Jim Allister has dismissed the pamphlet as "spin" arguing that "change will only come when the present unworkable charade is brought to its knees and that will not happen through working it, but through thwarting it by electoral rejection". However British and Irish officials may take heart from the fact that the DUP seems to be trying to sell the benefits of devolution at this sensitive stage.

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Kieran McCarthy must have been up to high doh last night. The Strangford MLA has denounced the Henry handball as an "absolute scandal...The FAI should demand a replay in Paris for next week. If FIFA do not agree to this measure the FAI should seriously consider suing them for the revenue lost as a result of missing out on one of the most lucrative events in world sport."

Following swiftly on from the Irish Justice Minister Dermot Ahern's demand for a replay, the Strangford intervention will surely tip the balance with Sepp Blatter.

If FIFA don't respond maybe the Executive could take unilateral action, say, by refusing to host Olympic soccer in our new multi-sports stadium. Oh we did that already. Any other ideas?

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During Monday's "Stormont Live" I asked Alasdair McDonnell if it really mattered who won the SDLP leadership contest as the party would inevitably face a squeeze at the next Assembly elections, given that Sinn Fein would tell nationalists it had a realistic chance of becoming the biggest Stormont party. Consequently Sinn Fein would have the right to nominate Martin McGuinness as First Minister, a move which seems guaranteed to ensure that the DUP will refuse the post which their MLAs are wont to refer to as "the Deputy".

The SDLP deputy leader disagreed with my analysis, predicting that, should the 2011 Assembly election produce such an outcome, the DUP and the UUP would get together and form one big party, thus ensuring a unionist became First Minister.

This prompted me to revise the precedents. In a recent the TUV leader Jim Allister has explained how the legal changes after St. Andrews put Sinn Fein in line for the First Minister's position. He rejects the DUP argument that the legislation did not faithfully reflect the St. Andrews Agreement.

So what about the possibility of a post election unionist pact? Some SDLP sources think this could be as easy as the formation of the group which now sees Alliance banding together with the greens and Dr. Kieran Deeny for Stormont purposes. But I am not so sure.

The McDonnell scenario reminded me of the UUP's attempt in 2006 to add the late PUP leader David Ervine to their numbers in order to boost their rank in the Assembly pecking order. The former speaker Eileen Bell eventually ruled against the move arguing that the definition of a Party given in the should be taken into account.

In her words, those characteristics should be "a short, suitable name; a headquarters, or at least an address for the purpose of communication; officers of the party, including at least a leader, a treasurer and a contact person, called a "nominating officer", for the purpose of liaising with the Electoral Commission and others; a constitution; a scheme for financial support of the party; and an intention to contest elections."

She went on "in making a decision about any future list for publication, I shall require a party to have all those characteristics."

Some Stormont sources point out that in the crisis atmosphere which might accompany such an outcome to the 2011 election, all sorts of manouvreings may become possible. It is, for example, likely for realpolitik reasons that we might already be heading towards a wholesale renegotiation.

But as things stand the Ervine precedent seems to make a tactical unionist alliance simply in order to capture the First Minister's job a bit difficult, never mind all the other reasons why the DUP and the UUP might find it hard to cuddle up together.

On the post election timings, my reading is that the politicians would have about a fortnight to wrestle with the Assembly arithmetic. The clerk is due to convene a meeting of the new Assembly within eight days from the date of the 2011 poll, then the stipulates that the First Minister should be elected within seven days of the first sitting. This is one for the anoraks right now, but it could be taking up rather more of our time in May 2011.

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The Electoral Commission has just released The current confidentiality provision is due to end in October next year but could be renewed. The people who talked to the Commission didn't seem to be too impressed by the motives of any donors to the local parties. The research found that "overwhelmingly, people thought that private donations and loans from businesses were generally made to buy favours or to influence policy."

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Our First Minister Peter Robinson has just squeezed into the coming in last one place behind Denis Desmond, the part owner of the fast food chain.

The magazine ranks him below fellow northerners Gerry Adams (ranked 69), Seamus Heaney (47) and President Mary McAleese (34).

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• - What's this?

I'm just back from Dunmurry where the Environment Minister Edwin Poots was defending himself against accusations of gerrymandering. Last night we reported that he's warning that the whole local government shake up could collapse if there isn't agreement on council boundaries. This afternoon he was open about his desire to see the borders suggested by the Independent Commissioner redrawn around his own home patch of Lisburn.

Essentially the Commissioner decided to put Dunmurry, along with Twinbrook and Poleglass, into Belfast City Council. But the minister wants it retained in Lisburn. Sinn Fein's Paul Butler has questioned whether the minister, who is also a Lisburn councillor, has a conflict of interests and is acting out of selfish political motives. But Mr Poots told me he had the backing of other parties in the area and is seeking to overturn a boundary which he is convinced makes no sense.

Certainly the only people who I talked to on the street in Dunmurry wanted to stay with Lisburn, perhaps because the rates there are lower. But some reckon there's a far bigger political fish being fried, with unionists concerned that an extra nationalist ward in Belfast might be just enough to upset the balance of the city and tip it into nationalist control.

Interestingly Paul Butler didn't entirely agree with the "Green Belfast" line, maintaining the row was far more local. However the implications could stretch well beyond Dunmurry with the future of the proposed reduction of the current 26 councils to just 11 on the line. And if we don't sort out who empties the dustbins in Dunmurry we could - if Edwin Poots leaked letter is to be believed - all be going to the polls for an early council election next year.

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Back in September the former Alliance European candidate, Ian Parsley, suffered some embarrassment when he e-mailed out a "holding statement" related to a newspaper claim that he was about to defect, but forgot to remove another e-mail which confirmed he was already deep in discussions with the Conservatives.

Now Mr Parsley's former leader, David Ford, has got himself into another e-mail mix up by sending a message meant for the Liberal Democrats to the SDLP. Mr Ford is staying mum about exactly what he said in his briefing note to Alastair Carmichael prior to the last Northern Ireland Questions, but Mark Durkan dropped a few hints about it during Tuesday's marathon justice debate.

Mr Durkan claimed the Alliance leader was already receiving confidential security briefings and, when told he had got his timetable wrong, he retorted that "we know the timetable of the e-mail to the Liberal Democrats in which he (Mr Ford) might not have said that it was time to be nice to Shaun Woodward, but he did say that Mr Woodward was trying to do the right thing in the current situation and that, perhaps, people should go easy on him."

Alliance sources have denied SDLP claims that the message showed they were soft pedalling their demands on a Shared Future, saying that what Mr Carmichael said in Northern Ireland questions demonstrated exactly the opposite.

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Is the DUP contributing to community confidence in its latest utterances regarding the full time police reserve or just spreading confusion all around?

Peter Robinson released a early this morning which sought to clarify the party position. Boiled down this is that "community confidence" is the only precondition, but the fate of the reserve is a "key element" in that confidence. Jeffrey Donaldson indicated that he is not necessarily insisting that the reserve is retained as an entity but wants those officers keen on staying to be subsumed as uniformed members of the PSNI.

Whilst this option sounds like an attractive compromise so far as the DUP is concerned Matt Baggott appeared to rule it out during his

The problem for the DUP is that their critics have been rubbing their hands in glee. The TUV leader Jim Allister claims the different DUP statements show the party to be in Maybe because the job prospects of 300 flesh and blood reservists is more tangible than the finances of future court cases and other aspects of policing and justice, the danger will be that this controversy overshadows the apparently generous Gordon Brown budget offer.

No matter what happens in the weeks ahead, the last few days have already left an impression of ambiguity and clever word play which doesn't tend to go down well with the public.

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Critics are getting their teeth into the Employment Minister Sir Reg Empey after he called some16 - 24 year olds not in employment, education or training "vampires" because they get up at 3pm and stay up all night. Alliance youth chair Conrad Dickson, for example, reckons that whilst Sir Reg is siting in "his ministerial ivory tower" and hurling "insults at young people", he does not understand the realities of what it is like to leave education, only to face months or years of looking for a job.

Fair enough, Sir Reg may well be forced to backtrack. But do 16 - 24 year olds think being called a "vampire" is an insult or a compliment these days? I only ask because 1) I can remember being fairly nocturnal at that age and 2) last night on Radio 5 I listened to lots of teenagers screaming at the premiere of the new Has the Ulster Unionist leader inadvertently tripped over the new teenage taste for vampire chic.

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• - What's this?

There was a sense of unreality during much of today's marathon debate on the Justice Bill. We had plenty of discussion of SDLP and Ulster Unionist objections to the Sinn Fein DUP deal on a future Justice department. We had the SDLP suggesting December 7th as the date for the transfer of powers. But there seemed little or no acknowledgment of the general belief that the devolution of justice is balanced on a knife edge.

Outside the chamber, in the corridors and the canteen, the chat has all been about whether things could go - as Sinn Fein's Declan Kearney put it - into freefall. DUP politicians aren't happy that the Chief Constable has ruled out the wriggle room they were hoping for in relation to the future employment of individual members of the full time reserve.

Both republicans and unionists talk about the possibility of the transfer of powers not being agreed before Christmas and a breakdown leading to an early Assembly poll. One source even suggested that the knock on impact could be a failure to implement the planned restructuring of local government which might in turn lead to an early council election.

At the same time, you have to remember that before any of the big deals in the past there have always been peaks and troughs. Parties tend to throw shapes or talk up breakdowns as a way of putting pressure on others.

Sinn Fein are undoubtedly angry about the failure of the DUP to move forwards. An early election would give them a chance to give the SDLP a bloody nose at a time when SDLP activists are concentrating on who their future leader should be. It would also punish the DUP by handing the TUV a gilt edged opportunity.

But as the UUP's Alan McFarland predicted during tonight's debate, it's also likely to lead to a three way split in unionism and Martin McGuinness as First Minister. That might appear appealing to Sinn Fein, but they know unionists will probably refuse to play ball and demand a complete renegotiation of the system. Sinn Fein will have to calculate whether bringing that on is in their interests.

Either way the British and Irish governments are increasingly concerned about the failure to make more progress. Shaun Woodward's decision to urge church and business leaders to make their voices heard seemed curious - some leaders may heed his call, but if they do the DUP is likely to explain it away as an NIO organised intervention. Micheál Martin is at Stormont on Wednesday meeting the First and Deputy First. He will no doubt be joining the Secretary of State as a cheerleader for a breakthrough.

Later in the week many of the our ministers (with the exception of Margaret Ritchie who has picked the Assembly's Downpatrick roadshow over Jersey) will be off to the British Irish Council meeting, which is discussing minority languages. Last time I attended a BIC meeting in Jersey the hosts gave us all bags of Jersey potatoes as gifts (which I think were confiscated on our return). We all know devolution of justice is a hot potato, but has Stormont had its chips?

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• - What's this?

The amount Michael McGimpsey reckons he has spent answering written questions on health from the DUP's Alex Easton. Any suggestions for how else this cash could have been spent?

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• - What's this?

I spotted the great Cromac Street hole in the road yesterday as I made my way into the 91Èȱ¬ to present "Inside Politics". Like many commuters I jumped to the conclusion that the traffic would be chaotic. Normally on a Monday morning I drive into the 91Èȱ¬ then back up to Stormont. But today I reversed my usual routine, heading to Stormont first, then taking my bike out of the car and freewheeling past Carson's statue and on to the city centre.

Many other motorists must have changed their ways too as the Albert Bridge Road and the route past Cromac Street was all but deserted. Fortunately I skidded past the hole at such speed that the 91Èȱ¬ cameraman on the look out of congestion failed to capture any video of me for our Christmas tape. Nevertheless, my appearance in denim jeans with a hole in the knees caused much mirth at our morning news meeting and earned me a cameo role on Talkback.

I learned a couple of things from this episode.

1. Even with gravity on my side, I am not as fit as I used to be when I cycled to work every day back in the 1980s.

2. I now know Belfast is built on the sludgy estuarine deposits on the banks of the Lagan. So many Belfast buildings are propped up on timber piles, effectively built on sand. What a shame Stormont is on a hill, it really feels like it should be a sleechy place.

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Tomorrow MLAs are due a late night as they will be voting on the Justice Bill, the measure which is meant to pave the way for the transfer of justice powers. The voting coinicided with the latest Assembly road show due to take place in South Antrim. Stormont officials had hoped to arrange a Westminster style pairing system, so that panel members wouldn't have to worry about their parties missing out on their votes back in the chamber. But the idea didn't catch on either because the Bill is deemed too important or because it's harder to apply pairing to the five party system than the Westminster government and opposition.

As a result the South Antrim roadshow has been postponed. The last thing the Assembly authorities wanted was a repeat of the debacle in east Belfast when MLAs didn't turn up for a roadshow as they were busy voting. Another roadshow is due to be held in Both Margaret Ritchie and Caitriona Ruane had been predicted to be on the panel, but now it appears that the Education Minister won't be able to attend. Was the timing, two days ahead of the new transfer tests, not to her liking?

(UPDATE: Since I wrote that last line the minister's officials have explained that she will be attending a British Irish council meeting, a dynamic organisation which last updated its website on

Over the weekend there was more fallout from Matt Baggott's decision to push ahead with the phasing out of the full time police reserve. Jim Allister called him a "political lackey".

Under pressure from the TUV leader, the DUP's Jeffrey Donaldson appeared to make the retention of the full time reserve a "deal breaker" during an interview with the Nolan show. However this afternoon on Stormont Live Mr Donaldson appeared to shift ground indicating that his party wanted the 150 or so members of the reserve who want to stay on to be found a berth in the PSNI. He suggested this was more important than the retention of the reserve per se.

No doubt the DUP's critics will portray this as a hasty U turn, but it looks like the avnue down which the problem might be resolved, although given the strict rules surrounding PSNI recruitment it's far from certain whether it can be achieved.

The fall out over the full time reserve (including a Friday evening during which the DUP appear to have been completely blind sided by the Chief Constable) contributed to the notion that we may soon be in "free fall". However the First and Deputy First are continuing to go about their business, meeting the SDLP today, an Assembly Committee tomorrow and probably the Prime Minister later this week. So on this level it doesn't feel as if we are in breakdown territory, heading for an early Stormont election.

Another fall out from the TUV conference has been Jim Allister's attack on the DUP for allegedly conniving in the rule change which will allow the biggest party at Stormont to automatically provide the First Minister. After St. Andrews, the rules were changed so that Ian Paisley did not have to stand for election as part of a team with Martin McGuinness. But whilst the reform spared a few Paisley blushes, it did not restrict candidacy for the First Minister's position to parties from the largest designation. If unionism splits three ways in a future Assembly election, the new rules mean that Sinn Fein is in pole position for the First Minister's job.

In response to Jim Allister's criticism, a DUP spokesman argued that "it was only at St Andrews that the possibility, for the first time, was raised of the First Minister automatically coming from the largest party from the largest designation, but that proposal was not faithfully implemented when Parliament passed the legislation which was intended to give effect to the St Andrews Agreement."

Which begs the question, what were the DUP's MPs doing whilst legislation which they now say didn't reflect St. Andrews went through the Commons?

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I just spent most of this morning in the Stormont Long Gallery with the army. No, not H.M. Forces but William Booth's followers, the Salvation Army. As anyone who knows me will vouch, I'm about as far as you can get from a tambourine shaking missionary. But social workers I know have always made the point that the Salvation Army is an organisation which delivers in a very practical way when asked to help someone down on their luck, so I didn't hesitate when asked to chair a discussion on their report which deals with the causes of homelessness in Belfast and Dublin.

The report emphasises the need to tackle homelessness at a very early stage, as those caught up in the cycle of poverty often fall into trouble in adolescence. 74% of the homeless people interviewed by the Salvation Army here had no relationship with their father. Around half reported neglect or abuse as children and more than a quarter were homeless before the age of 18.

Depressing stuff, although I was heartened to hear from the Council for the 91Èȱ¬less's Ricky Rowledge that a concerted drive by the authorities to tackle rough sleeping had produced dividends, which is one reason why the problem is not so evident on our streets as, say, in London.

Alcohol dependency, inevitably, is a big problem with 73% of those interviewed drinking. Whilst cannabis use in Belfast appeared slightly higher than in Dublin, other drugs like opiates and cocaine appeared less prevalent (although someone at the launch suggested to me that with fewer security checks here greater quantities of drugs are finding their way on to our streets).

Other issues raised during our panel discussion included the plight of migrants who may find themselves without a roof over heads but aren't eligible for benefits (which was recently highlighted in an and the extent to which the "new" Northern Ireland has made little or no difference to disadvantaged young people (a point made by a recent

Of course pleas for extra resources for the sector are likely to fall on deaf ears given the general economic downturn. Indeed the Social Development Minister Margaret Ritchie acknowledged that tackling homelessness was "challenging at the best of times but especially difficult as budgets become tight". But whilst saving on this area may provide a short term gain, as the Salvation Army's research shows it only stores up the problems for future generations. Either way, with public sector cuts inevitable, it seems certain that the Sally Army's four local centres are going to be busy in the months and years to come.

The Reverend Norman Hamilton expressed the fear that "social justice" matters don't get much of a hearing at Stormont in comparison to big picture politics and justice. He has a point. But as we have seen in relation to this week's so called punishment attacks the two areas are not unconnected. If statutory and voluntary agencies don't find a way of reaching out to adolescents at risk of homelessness or involvement in anti-social behaviour, then paramilitary groups may seize upon them either as victims or recruits.

On a lighter note the launch was attended by both the SDLP Deputy Leader Alasdair mcDonnell and the Social Development Minister Margaret Ritchie. The UUP's Basil McCrea (who was there alongside the DUP Minister Edwin Poots) joked that unlike the SDLP participants he wasn't involved in a leadership race, adding "not yet anyway". He quickly clarified that this was just a joke, so Sir Reg hasn't got to watch his back just yet.

My guest for this Sunday's Inside Politics will be Jim Allister, whose Traditional Unionists hold their conference this weekend. I assume after the party's apology that his leader's speech will not be bilingual. You can catch Inside Politics as usual after the one o'clock news on 91Èȱ¬ Radio Ulster this Sunday.

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It looks like we are soon going to get a couple of new MLAs. The SDLP's Carmel Hanna (who is currently sitting in a Health Committee meeting) is planning to retire. A selection meeting has been arranged for next month in South Belfast with Belfast councillor Bernie Kelly and former SDLP spin doctor and well known blogger Conall McDevitt thought to be in the running.

In East Londonderry, as was confirmed some time back, Sinn Fein's Francie Brolly is standing down.The selection meeting there is due later this month and it's believed the runners might include Limavady Councillor Brenda Chivers and Coleraine Councillor Billy Leonard - who, if selected, would be the first former police officer to make it into Sinn Fein's Stormont team.

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Some guffawing from DUP MLAs as a senior 91Èȱ¬ executive demonstrated the corporation's new service in the Member's Dining Room on Wednesday. A test search on the words "North West" brought up Sinn Fein's talking in Tuesday's debate on the need for special economic treatment for the area.

Apart from talking about the "North West", Ms McGill said "Strabane" rather a lot. It turned out she said it seven times. The DUP MLAs knew as they had been running a sweepstake on how many times the town would get a mention. I'm told Simon Hamilton came closest with eight. And when Jim Shannon let Claire McGill know what had been going on she told him she'd learned her tactic by listening to how often he worked the name of his Strangford constituency into all his Assembly utterances.

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Highlighting the dangers of double jobbing, the TUV's Keith Harbinson settled upon Tuesday night's vote on the Bill of Rights as an example of unionism being let down by not being able to muster numbers at both Westminster and Stormont at the same time.

Mr Harbinson said unionism had been defeated because of the absence of the DUP MPs. Although his general point may be valid Tuesday's vote was in fact less of a "classic illustration" than he may believe.

That's because nationalists had brought a petition of concern on the Ulster Unionist motion, in order to ensure its criticism of the Bill of Rights would be blocked. But when a PUP amendment supportive of the Bill went through (because of the low unionist numbers) it then became the main motion under discussion.

In the first example I can remember of such a petition boomeranging on those who had brought it, the motion backing the Bill of Rights would have gone through with nationalist and Alliance support, but could not proceed because it required cross community backing. So the unionists, despite their depleted numbers, were able to use the Good Friday Agreement to block a motion supportive of the Bill of Rights.

So as the unionists lost the amendment by 39 votes to 46, but "won" the main motion by 39 votes to 45, on the grounds that the only unionist in favour of the Bill of Rights was Dawn Purvis.

Next Tuesday MLAs will again face a dillemma about being in two places at once. The Justice Bill, which provides for a future devolved department, is going through its consideration stage and a late night is predicted. However the Assembly is also organising one of its roadshows for the same evening, this time in South Antrim.

Last time late night voting coincided with a roadshow there were red faces for the Assembly secretariat when most MLAs failed to turn up at the event organised in East Belfast's Park Avenue hotel. To try to avoid a similar discourtesy to those voters interested enough to attend a roadshow, the Assembly is now investigating whether MLAs can agree a "pairing" arrangement, along the lines of similar deals at Westminster. This would enable a politician to attend the roadshow in the knowledge that their absence won't make a crucial difference to voting on the bill back in the Chamber.

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Last month I expressed a degree of scepticism about the argument that an agreement on devolving justice would help to meet the dissident threat. Today the Independent Monitoring Commission has reported on

The IMC has backed the argument that an early agreement would help combat the dissidents by claiming it "could provide a potent intervention. This would not be because the dissidents would be impressed by it. It would be because policing and justice
would no longer be a point of contention across the political divide; rather, it would
be a platform for co-operation against those trying to undermine the peace
process."

So will that cooperation prove more effective if we have, say, an Alliance Minister rather than a direct rule one? David Ford has described today's IMC report as a "wake up call" to the Stormont politicians that further delays cannot be afforded, whilst Shaun Woodward hopes it "should be hugely influential in informing an early decision".

After listening to the Nolan programme's reports on so called punishment attacks earlier today, it's clear that whoever is in charge of the police and the courts in the future will have a real job to do to eliminate the trend towards vigilante justice. Most listeners will have been shocked by the searing account of the brutality with which these attacks are carried out. But there was also evidence from amongst the callers of the reservoir of support for such actions which will only dry up when communities feel full confidence in the ability of the police to respond to crime in their midst. And I couldn't help wondering what other activities those involved in such attacks on young people in their own areas will go on to become embroiled in now they have been "blooded" by their shadowy organisations.

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Sir Christopher Kelly has just released his report on MPs' expenses. On double jobbing he recommends that ideally dual mandates should end by the next Assembly election in 2011, and if not by 2015 at the latest. He's also telling Sinn Fein MPs and any other MPs infrequently in London that they should claim for overnight stays in hotels rather than permanent accommodation.

His full report, which includes a chapter on Northern Ireland, can be read

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I've returned to my cupboard in the Stormont basement, playing catch up on all I have missed - a DUP rethink on double jobbing, a £20 million payment for the part time reserve and a row over replacing the Parades Commission.

Double jobbing should be back in the news tomorrow when Sir Christopher Kelly publishes his report on MPs' expenses. The report will have a specific Northern Ireland chapter, and the rumour here is that he may recommend a five year phasing out of dual mandates. There are also suggestions that Sinn Fein's abstentionist allowances may come under pressure. Sir Christopher's proposals on the employment of family members have been well trailed elsewhere, but should have particular resonance here.

The behind the scenes talks about devolving justice go on. The Assembly Committee which looks after policing and justice is inviting the First and Deputy First Ministers to give it evidence next week and it's they may also be looking for a meeting with Lord Ashdown on his parades proposals. It's also putting a motion before the main Assembly calling on Shaun Woodward to provide the committee with any memoranda of understanding and protocols related to national security - something the Committee has been looking for unsuccessfully for some time.

I'm told work is still continuing on the precise powers and independence of a future Justice Minister visa-vis the rest of the Executive. There are also discussions about how the minister should be appointed. It's already been settled that the nominee should get cross community support, but should that amount to an effective coronation of the Alliance party or should the Assembly go through the process of voting for a series of candidates from different parties before arriving at the same destination?

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