91Èȱ¬

Today Mr Justice Gillen rejected Michelle Williamson's challenge to the appointment of four Victims Commissioners. The judgment in the case brought by Ms Williamson, whose relatives were killed in the IRA's Shankill Road bombing, contains some fascinating observations about the workings of the government at Stormont Castle.

Ms Williamson's lawyers had argued that the failure of Messrs Paisley and McGuinness to keep a paper trail documenting their decision to switch from appointing just one Victims Commissioner to a team of four called in to question the candour of the evidence provided by the Executive.

However the judge rejected this arguing that "the process of joint decision making which will command public trust and confidence is a fragile flower which requires careful tending". He said it would be "singularly unhelpful" for the courts to prescribe how the First and Deputy First should secure unity of decision making.

The judgment appears to approve of private deals in what would have been described in days gone by (prior to the smoking ban) as "smoke filled rooms".

The judge did not "find it unlawful or improper that from time to time decisions of the First and Deputy First Minister may be arrived at by joint meetings of the Ministers without officials present or documentation being made of the almost inevitable painstaking and at times perhaps even tortuous or rancorous evolution of agreement which in the initial stages may seem unlikely.....This is a new model of governance and old procedural straight jackets may have to be modified so long as the parties have acted within the rule of law and the terms set down by Parliament. The absence of documentation, note taking or presence of officials in sensitive discussions between Ministers does not lead to the drawing of an adverse inference of unlawfulness, discrimination or of political considerations having infected the process unlawfully."

In short, this judgment looks to have cut the legs off any future attempt to judicially review the OFMDFM and to provide a "carte blanche" for meetings without officials and note takers present.

But never fear, if you disagree in the future with an OFMDFM decision, you don't need to turn to the courts, because our ministers, as Mr Justice Gillen notes "are accountable to the Assembly where they are likely to be questioned and scrutinised". And we all know just how effective the Assembly has been at carrying out that job in the past.

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Last night I did a bit of double jobbing, filling in for a colleague on leave by helping out the production team on "Let's Talk". It's a programme which I've never worked on before so it was interesting to sit in the gallery driving the discussion rather than sitting at home as a viewer.

We covered the damage done to Northern Ireland's reputation after the departure of the intimidated Roma familes, whether the new Commons Speaker could tackle the expenses crisis, and if Ian Paisley is too old to stand again as an MP.

On the panel, Ian Paisley Junior told us his dad was "messing with my head" over his possible candidacy at the age of 83. You got a sense that Ian Snr. might simply be keeping his cards close to his chest. Questioned about Iris Robinson's claim (which the Fees Office never approved and the DUP said had been made "in error") for a £300 fountain pen, Ian Jnr. said that anyone who wasn't embarrassed by something like that would have something wrong with them.

Kate Hoey, Alex Maskey, the Equality Commission's Evelyn Collins and the "Apprentice" contestant Ben Clarke weighed in with their views on the topics already mentioned plus whether they would work for free to save their job and if there is a quick fix for the "grunting" problem at Wimbledon. Ben made it clear that he was more interested in looking at Maria Sharapova than listening to whatever noises she makes when she serves.

I don't think I'm giving away too many state secrets if I reveal that the programme is usually recorded about two hours before it goes out on air. Then when it is transmitted people text and phone in their comments. The staff monitoring these incoming messages were puzzled, as the programme neared its end, that an increasing number of viewers were asking what had happened to Michael Jackson. As these comments weren't deemed relevant to the debates on screen they weren't passed on to the edit suite where we were approving messages for transmission. And concentrating on the texts, I didn't think to peruse the news wires. So it was that the programme team were just as shocked as everyone else when "Let's Talk" finished and the London newsroom took over for a newsflash.

This weekend it's my turn to head off on leave, but never fear Inside Politics will be on air as usual on Sunday just after the one o'clock news. Our guest is due to be the Deputy First Minister, Martin McGuinness.

Oh, and the presenter? Here's a clue - who do you think the Deputy Speaker was thinking of on Tuesday before he called one of the Sinn Fein Foyle MLAs to speak in a debate on the full time police reserve?

Here's another clue, from the Official Report. "Mr Deputy Speaker: I call Ms Martina Purd -- Anderson. Ms Anderson. [Laughter.]"

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With the new Stormont Code of Conduct due to set up a register of family members benefitting from MLA allowances, the SDLP is proposing that MPs should be allowed to emply only one relative.

The suggestion is contained in the party's to Sir Christopher Kelly's Committee on Standards in Public Life. The SDLP also suggests that MP's pay should be "in keeping with comparable levels in the senior civil service or in the private sector".

Sir Christopher Kelly's commitee is due to visit Belfast on Wednesday next week. On 18th May the DUP published some of its proposals for the Committee's review of MPs expenses, including the direct employment of all MPs' staff by Westminster. You can find these proposals on the DUP's News Archive, but so far the only full submission from a local party to appear on the Public Standards Committee's website is from the SDLP.

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Sammy Wilson has previously complained about the mountains of documentation generated by the Assembly. Maybe when he takes over at the Finance Department he will bung Michelle Gildernew a few extra notes for setting a good example. I'm told she attended the last Executive meeting without bringing a single piece of paper, conducting all her work using a laptop.

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This morning Sammy Wilson made it clear he wouldn't give up his councillor job because he didn't want to trigger the first in a rash of "costly by-elections". At £25,000 a go this is clearly a concern for ratepayers. But is the DUP keen on co-opting councillors purely for financial purposes?

As long ago as May last year, this blog pointed out that, with the TUV threat in mind, the DUP would not be keen on a rash of council by-elections. After the European election, this concern will be all the greater.

Tomorrow the DUP's assembly team are off on an away day. Will they have to take part in any team building activities? All suggestions gratefully accepted, or if you happen to spot an MLA abseiling, ziplining or (my personal favourite) zorbing, let us know.

Presumably whatever they get up to will be funded from their Stormont ministerial salaries, given Peter Robinson's revelation to the that he and the other DUP ministers put their wages towards party funds.

This "tithe" puts the DUP in a similar category to Sinn Fein, whose politicians take what they term "an average industrial wage". The DUP politicians keep a larger share of their income, but the principle is the same. In both cases the surplus salaries of elected representatives are used to subsidise party coffers.

Given the expenses uproar across the water, would there be a gap in the market for a party standing across the UK on a platform of paying its representatives the average national wage? That's around £24,000 A politician might attract more votes if they pledged to pay the surplus to charity, or back to the public purse, rather than to their own party coffers. Of course they would then have a direct incentive to raise the national wage through good management of the economy.

But don't hold your breath. According to the the new Commons Speaker wants MPs to get a six figure salary, four times the average wage. In the current climate, politicians are all keen to be seen to put on but I can't imagine many of them wanting to adopt the Sinn Fein salary model.

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The Assembly approved a today. Few will argue against the need for a register for benefits for family members and earnings from outside work. The Standards Committee is also due to get extra teeth, with the explicit power to punish rule breakers by recommending their suspension without pay.

More changes are likely to follow when the Assembly Commission completes its work on financial matters, which is expected to provide a more detailed breakdown of MLA expenses.

One aspect of the new code which should prove interesting is the section which deals with the expression of political opinions. The Standards Committee says "Members are entitled to legally express any political opinion that they may hold. In doing so, however, Members should have regard to the Principles of Conduct and should not express opinions in a manner that is manifestly in conflict with the Principles of Conduct."

Since those principles will now include four new ones related to "Respect; Equality; Promoting Good Relations; and Good Working Relationships", Committee members believe that any racist or homophobic remarks would fall foul of the rules. This applies to remarks uttered outside the chamber, not within it. There could be some interesting test cases, and one MLA the Greens Brian Wilson argued that the clause had the potential to open "a can of worms".

Back in March, for example, Iris Robinson over her comment that homosexuality was an abomination. I'm told this matter has now been referred back to the Standards Committee for its consideration.

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Proof positive that the TUV and UUP are not cooperating over their communications policy. Both Jim Allister and David McNarry reckon today's DUP reshuffle amounts to "nothing more than a rearranging of the deck chairs on the Titanic".

Both parties seized on the fact that Sammy Wilson is hanging on to his MP, MLA, ministerial and councillor jobs as evidence that the DUP is, in Sir Reg Empey's words, "addicted to double jobbing".

Peter Robinson insists the removal of Nigel Dodds, Gregory Campbell and Jeffrey Donaldson from his ministerial team shows his party is tackling the issue. But the UUP will now urge David Cameron to make good on his election campaign pledge to legislate against double jobbing.

Whilst the Greens may crack open a bottle of organic fair trade wine to celebrate Sammy's departure, I don't imagine Irish language enthusiasts will be overjoyed about the arrival of Nelson McCausland at the Culture Department. He says he is committed to equality, but may interpret that rather differently from them. He also indicated he'd consider attending a GAA match, but never on a Sunday.

Although the DUP is denying that Robin Newton's elevation as junior minister is pre-empting their selection meeting for the East Belfast Westminster candidacy, it's hard to interpret it in any other way.

Tonight Sinn Fein won a vote backing the latest call for greater equality monitoring by criminal justice agencies. The DUP's Stephen Moutray opposed the move as "section 75 gone mad", something which would lead to "enormous additional bureacracy and red tape".

But when it came to the vote, the motion passed by 31 to 26. Could this have had anything to do with double jobbing, given that the DUP's MPs were over at Westminster choosing a new Speaker? Well maybe, although the DUP claim 11 Ulster Unionists were also absent, even though they didn't have other jobs to go to.

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I've just finished Inside Politics. My guests were the Queen's academic Pete Shirlow and Sian O'Neill who works for the Ulster Cancer Foundation and is also involved in the campaign. Near the end of the show I raised with Pete Shirlow first reports of a Martin McGuinness speech at today's Bodenstown commemoration, in which the Deputy First Minister seems to be warning the Orange Order that if they aren't more constructive in engaging in dialogue over parades, republicans may grow tired of stewarding protests at march flashpoints.

The main political interviewee was Shaun Woodward. Regular commenter "7 pillars" wanted me to ask him about those reports of the UDA asking for money under the cover of "community groups". The Secretary of State insisted there had been "no deals and no negotiations".

But you may wish to deconstruct Mr Woodward's reference to the demand from loyalist areas for "greater representation" and involvement in the political process. The SoS also talked about showing "recognition" of the acts of leadership demonstrated by loyalism.

When I asked him what concrete form such recognition might take and suggested that we might hear announcements about new social projects, he countered that such projects were a matter for the Stormont Executive. So watch this space.

Our discussion of the intimidation of the Romanian familes on the Lisburn Road led me to ask the Secretary of State for his response to comments on "Question Time" about people here being addicted to hatred and violence.

For those of you who don't know, Shaun and Esther go back a long way. They used to work together on the 91Èȱ¬ consumer programme "That's Life", they wrote a book together, a second hand copy of which the SoS recently bought on his expenses, they were co founders of the charity Child Line, and although she didn't make it to his 50th birthday party in Morocco Esther did write Shaun an apologetic poem.

So it was with a fair degree of regret, I'd say, that the SoS told me that whilst he was very fond of Esther, she was wrong and had made a misjudgment, and warned people living outside Northern Ireland not to indulge in "knee jerk" reactions.

Which shows politics can test the firmest friendships. And that poem? According to the Sunday Times, it went like this:

'This is an ode to young Shaun Woodward / About whom everybody has a good word / We raise our glasses to our friend Shaun / Destined for glory from the day he was born / Please invite me to the beanery / When you celebrate your centenary / What will you be? We can only hope . . . if not God, then maybe the Pope!'

How I wonder will they address each other across the chamber if Ms Rantzen joins Mr Woodward as an MP after the next Westminster election?

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That's how much better off we are each year than folks anywhere else in the UK, when it comes to public expenditure. So says the which reckons we are 22% better off than the national average when it comes to getting money out of the Treasury. That puts us at the top of the table, when compared to England, Scotland and Wales and isn't the kind of research Stormont ministers want to be clutching when they go in to bat with the Treasury about the need for more cash to cover policing and justice, the civil service pay claim and other pressure points.

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Two of the topics I expect to cover with the Secretary of State Shaun Woodward when he joins me live for Inside Politics this Sunday. And if we get a chance I'm sure we might touch on those black blobs all over the official Westminster expense sheets as well.

As usual the programme will be on 91Èȱ¬ Radio Ulster straight after the 1 pm news.

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A quick screech of tyres and a handbrake turn this morning. After spending a few hours buried in mounds of MPs' expenses, word came through that the UVF had engaged in a significant act of decommissioning. According to the the UDA is expected to follow soon.

With the August deadline looming for the end of General De Chastelain's disarmament scheme, the government will be delighted by such a breakthrough. Peter Robinson has already welcomed any move by the loyalists to wind down their paramilitary structures and decommission their weaponry.

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I'm in the office early to do an interview with Good Morning Ulster about the publication of MPs' expenses online. If you are looking for the details on any of our 18 local MPs you can find them Something like 6,600 files are being published with as many as 1000 receipts per MP. But as you will see if you visit the site there are some large black blobs on many pages - evidence of the "redaction" process undertaken by the MPs and the Westminster authorities. So far, for example, I don't see any of the communications between the Fees office and MPs which pointed the Daily Telegraph to particularly interesting information. Nor are there any addresses, which may seem obvious for security purposes. But without them would we have known about the practice of "flipping" which has just cost another minister, Kitty Ussher, her job?

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MLAs have been debating the Stormont Budget Bill all day and into the evening. It's a rather amorphous discussion, in which the politicians can raise almost anything which takes their fancy. If the Bill doesn't pass we'll know about it quickly enough as civil servants will stop getting their wages. But as things stand the likelihood of that is less than zero.

The main development today is that we have been told there will be no DUP reshuffle this week. This contrasts with what I had been told at the end of last week. So is the party finding some difficulties getting its politicians to agree to their new places in the jigsaw?

Meanwhile the DUP are still trying to work out what went wrong at the European election. One politician told me that in their area they had spoken to 16 voters who deserted the DUP for the TUV. The politician claimed 13 of them had put their decision down to Westminster expenses. This issue probably won't be quite so high profile next time around, although it's too soon to diagnose "expenses fatigue" amongst the electorate - especially as the Commons is set to release its won "redacted" tranche of receipts later this week. This may provide fresh information on those MPs which the Daily Telegraph hasn't got around to looking at just yet.

Finally, to a question from the SDLP's John Dallat caught my eye. He wanted to know how much was spent on providing security for Lord Craigavon's statue, which stands on the stairs which lead into Stormont's Great Hall. The Assembly Commission responded that "there is no specific attributable cost in providing security for the statue of Lord Craigavon as there are no staff specifically assigned to this duty." However the Deputy Speaker insists he has information that the Great Hall security staff are specifically tasked with keeping Craigavon safe. "From who?" you might wonder. Well at least it's a change from rubbing him with baby oil. .

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The former NIO mandarin, has been appointed to head The fact that the inquiry will be held in private has not impressed those, like the Liberal Democrats, who argue that only a public inquiry will rebuild public trust.

At least with his Northern Ireland expertise, Sir John should be mindful not to repeat the faults of the interminable But if his deliberations are all in secret he won't be able to follow the more progressive example apparently set more recently by, for example, the

Instead the public looks likely to get something far more limited in scope, along the lines of the report which Sir John compiled into the Presenting that report to the Commons, the former NIO Secretary Paul Murphy said "I am sure that the House will recognise that I am constrained by the wider aspects and implications of national security from going into any detail on these matters. But I shall be considering the matters raised in the report with the greatest care." Which left us all a great deal wiser. Would such a limited exercise assuage public concern on an issue as big as the Iraq War?

Nothing to do with mandarins, but I see that the Daily Mail has decided that our current Secretary of State, Shaun Woodward, should henceforth be dubbed as he is allegedly modelling himself on Lord Mandelson in carrying out his new Cabinet Office duties.

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What could be the implications of the recommendations for Northern Ireland? We are just off air from "Stormont Live". Fairly predictably, Sinn Fein's Jennifer McCann argued for more tax varying powers for Stormont whilst the DUP's Simon Hamilton appeared more sceptical about going it alone.

It's the Scottish parties in favour of the union, not the SNP, who are backing the Calman proposals. The SNP wants total not partial fiscal independence. In that context it looks like change is coming, and in the long term can Stormont be treated as a special case?

If applied to Northern Ireland, local tax varying powers would surely have an impact on the subsidy from the bloc grant and the future of faced by a local demand for more resources, wouldn't a London based Treasury minister be tempted to respond "go and raise the cash yourself"?

However the Alliance's Stephen Farry thinks Stormont shouldn't be frightened of taking on taxation powers. He argues that "greater control over taxation would give our local institutions much greater potential to make variations in local policy, to do things differently, and to re-balance and to modernise economy......Tax-varying powers do not necessarily mean higher taxes, rather they can relate to lower taxes. For example, a devolved Executive would be able to give targeted tax breaks to encourage economic activity, while accepting that there would be the cost of a consequent fall in revenue in the short-term. This was the ethos behind the local campaign for a differential rate in Corporation Tax."

Of course scotched that idea. Could Sir Kenneth Calman indirectly open the debate up once again?

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My colleague Martina Purdy is full of tales about this morning's MLA bike race - an annual event which coincides with National Bike week. The East Antrim MLA Roy Beggs Jr. won the race (yet more evidence of UCUNF riding high?)

Basil McCrea often rushes towards our cameras. But on this occasion, whilst seeking to gain advantage, he nearly knocked over the 91Èȱ¬ camera man.

Ian Paisley Junior threw a few wheelies, whilst Caitriona Ruane complained "why do they have to make it a competition?", which I suppose fits with her "all should get the prizes" approach to education.

The Green MLA Brian Wilson didn't take part because he can't ride a bike and prefers to walk. The SDLP's Thomas Burns got stuck in traffic and missed it all, and the Ulster Unionist Deputy Leader Danny Kennedy came last, claiming it was a ploy to get attention (evidence of UNCUNF running out of road?)

On his first day as a new UUP MLA, Danny Kinahan (who has replaced David Burnside in South Antrim) watched from the sidelines, with his hand bandaged after being bitten by his own dog, a Great Dane called Tally.

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During Inside Politics I talked to the DUP leader Peter Robinson about his post mortem on the damaging European election results and his plans for a Stormont reshuffle. i asked about rumours that his wife, Iris, might give up politics altogether. He denied this, but hinted heavily that whilst he will concentrate on Stormont, she is more likely to focus on Westminster as Strangford MP.

My understanding is that the DUP reshuffle should be announced, either in whole or in part, sometime in the coming week. Whilst MPs are being urged to decide whether they want to stay at Stormont or Westminster, they won't be expected to stand down as MLAs this summer. Instead they will probably remain in both jobs until after the next General Election, making it clear if they stand again for Westminster that, if succesful, they will not keep their MLA jobs.

Arlene Foster is standing in for Nigel Dodds for a number of budget debates on Monday and Tuesday. However I'm advised this isn't an indication she will inherit the Finance portfolio. She has been talked about as a candidate. But there has also been discussion of Sammy Wilson's expertise in this area (he used to teach economics). The East Antrim MP told the Belfast Telegraph this week that if he wanted to work all day and all night that was his business. It's thought he may be one possible exception to the "no double jobbing" rule - the DUP is still discussing whether this should apply across the board or whether there should be some flexibility.

Yvette Shapiro's vox pops in North Antrim for the "Politics Show" today didn't sound particularly good news for Ian Paisley Jr. If he runs (and he was still saying it's up to his father whether he steps down) he will certainly face a tough struggle to fight off Jim Allister's challenge.

Tonight the Politics Show has a special documentary "Out Of The Box" at 10.20 pm on 91Èȱ¬1. Francis Gorman has been behind the scenes with the Electoral Office throughout the European campaign and the count at the King's Hall. There were 4319 rejected ballot papers. There's an illuminating sequence in which you can find out why some of those people deliberately chose to spoil their votes.

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For those of you who haven't seen it, had an interesting take on the DUP losing direction, and that was well before the election count got underway.

Peter Robinson is himself no stranger to the odd cross border incursion. On this Sunday's Inside Politics he will give me his take on what went wrong for his party and how the DUP plans to reconnect with its disaffected grassroots supporters. I shall also be joined by guests Fionuala O'Connor and the News Letter's Darwin Templeton. That's on 91Èȱ¬ Radio Ulster this Sunday after the one o'clock news.

Also on Sunday, Yvette Shapiro will look at how the battle between the TUV and the DUP for North Antrim might be shaping up. That's on the Politics Show at noon on 91Èȱ¬1.

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Gerry Adams is flying off to New York this weekend for a forum at the Hilton Hotel on 6th Avenue entitled "A United Ireland - how do we get there?" I shall resist the temptation to advise him to take go east on 53rd street. It's interesting, however, that the forum is due to be addressed by whois not to be confused with the late

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The DUP are continuing to sort out their double jobbing dilemmas, but not in time for today's Executive meeting. During this afternoon's Stormont Executive meeting, a local government bill is due to be discussed. A Sinn Fein source tells me that all the unionist ministers, with the exception of Peter Robinson, will have to leave the room because, as councillors, they have a conflict of interests. The SDLP's Margaret Ritchie will also have to leave because she sits on Down District Council.

That should leave just Peter and the Sinn Fein ministers. Maybe they'll want to talk about more than miscellaneous council matters once they get a rare moment's privacy.

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It looks like there could be a few job vacancies up at Stormont in the next few weeks, as DUP double jobbers make up their minds whether they want to be MPs or MLAs. Nigel Dodds is thought to favour Westminster, whereas Jeffrey Donaldson may concentrate on Stormont.

Under the old system if an MP stepped down as an MLA the authorities would have to consult his or her list of six substitutes to determine who should get the job (by-elections were ruled out on the grounds that, in a multi-member constituency, a vacancy could benefit another party).

But under passed earlier this year the choice of a new MLA is entirely in the hands of the party nominating officer. This brings to mind an image of Peter Robinson scanning far and wide to assemble "a government of all the talents". Sir Alan Sugar for Enterprise Minister? Drat, Gordon Brown has beaten him to the punch.

Nevertheless it will be interesting to see who the First Minister hires. In his Kings Hall speech Jim Allister also sounded a bit like Sir Alan - his line about the Assembly P45s, being his equivalent of Sir Alan's "you're fired!" In response to Mr Allister's vow to contest North Antrim, Ian Paisley Junior points out that he has served as his father's apprentice for 18 years and has no intention of getting fired anytime soon.

The TUV leader is tonight speaking in Lurgan, launching a recruitment drive for his party, essentially appealing to disenchanted DUP and UUP activists to defect. One problem he faces in attracting any disgruntled DUP MLAs is the post dated resignation letter they were all made to sign before becoming Assembly members. It seemed like a good wheeze to discourage disloyalty but I wonder what a lawyer (I am sure the TUV could find one) would make of such letters in an employment tribunal. How much authority does any document have if it was signed under duress?

Last night I wrote an for the main website before making a last appearance on a late election programme. I was obviously punch drunk after a long day because I talked about an impenetrable force meeting an immoveable object. Not the first time I have mangled a well known saying. In my defence I was stone cold sober which is more than can be said, I guess for many UCUNFers, who held a victory bash at the Stormont hotel, with the main guests their candidate Jim Nicholson and his six sons. Were there some sore heads this morning in County Armagh?.

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That was what Jim Allister promised during his speech after the final election result was declared. After the obvious parody of Gerry Adams' comment on the IRA, some Sinn Feiners shouted "get your own lines". But up at Stormont this will be no joking matter.

The TUV leader lost his seat, but was the winner in every other way (what is the opposite of a Pyrrhic victory?). He vowed to contest North Antrim at the next Westminster election. That could be quite a contest, presumably against Ian Paisley Jr. Over the weekend UCUNF tallies had suggested that the TUV had outpolled the DUP in the constituency.

Mr Allister also told the DUP's Stormont team that his vote amounted to a series of "P45s" for those MLAs who had put their chequebooks before their consciences. He wants to build an anti-power sharing bridgehead at Stormont.

The DUP Director of Elections Jeffrey Donaldson denied that his party would go back into its shell and head in the direction of the TUV. But in her acceptance speech Diane Dodds (who came in under quota) promised to thwart the republican agenda. She refused to shake Bairbre De Brun's hand.

Who shakes whose hand doesn't really matter, but the key question will be whether this means things slow down even more at Stormont. Will we get the devolution of justice by Christmas?

Jim Nicholson (who got more TUV transfers than Diane Dodds) didn't hide his enjoyment at being elected for the first time ahead of the DUP. He pledged that "we're back". and although he couldn't say to what extent the Cameron factor had helped him stabilise his vote, he argued that it had added more support than it had cost.

European elections are different, and this may be a high water mark for Jim Allister, given the expenses saga and the ability to use a European poll as a protest vote. But if the three way split in unionism was replicated in the next Assembly election, it could mean that Sinn Fein become Stormont's biggest party.

Under the the biggest party, even if it doesn't come from the biggest designation has the right to appoint the First Minister. Could unionism wear that? Maybe they should be changing the titles to Joint First Ministers now.

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So the Chief Electoral Officer Douglas Bain made his of the first preference votes slightly earlier than expected. The result could have almost been a carbon copy of the 2004 election, if it had not been for the arrival of the Traditional Unionists on the scene.

Sinn Fein replicated their 26% vote, Jim Nicholson slightly built on his 16.6% vote (up half a percentage to 17.1%) and Alban Maginness slightly built on Martin Morgan's 15.9% (up to 16.2%).

But Jim Allister who predicted a "stunning" vote has doen just that taking his 13.7% more or less entirely from the DUP. Diane Dodds will take some comfort in the fact that - in contrast to the informal predictions over the weekend - she did maintain her party's position as the lead unionists, on 18.2%. However given the dizzy heights which the DUP used to inhabit in these elections it must be very sobering to be grubbing around with the others.

The elimination of the Alliance and Greens should benefit both Jim Nicholson and Alban Maginness, but is unlikely to enable the UCUNF candidate to make the quota of 121,144 votes. So it will then ironically be Jim Allister's votes which will bring Jim Nicholson and Diane Dodds home. It will be interesting to see just how much the average TUV voter has turned against the DUP, by watching the extent to which they transfer to Diane Dodds or to Jim Nicholson.

I have to break off as we are back on air on 91Èȱ¬2 at 2.30pm, but I shall be back online later.

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I'm in the office preparing for this lunchtime's Inside Politics. We have Kate Hoey on the attempted coup against Gordon Brown in London, and the Alliance General Secretary, Gerry Lynch, who is a respected tallyman, on the prospects for the count at the King's Hall tomorrow. I shall also be joined by the former lagan valley MLA Seamus Close and the Sunday World's Roisin Gorman.

Over the weekend the parties have been crunching their figures. In the south the have a long and distinguished history of calling elections ahead of time. Here it's sometimes a more haphazard operation, although Alliance in particular has great expertise in the area.

Tallying means looking over the shoulders of the election workers checking the ballot papers and noting down as many first preferences as you can. The party activists don't see all the papers, and as they are by definition partisan there is an understandable tendency for them to look out for their own first preferences and to concentrate on their own areas. That's why tallies tend to be biased towards those who take them.

But putting all those cayeats in place, it's clear that Sinn Fein has topped the poll handsomely, Jim Allister has gouged a big bite out of the DUP vote and Jim Nicholson has held his position better than many might have predicted. The SDLP now appear to be conceding that they won't be able to grab a seat from the fragmented unionists.

One UCUNF tally I was given yesterday was as follows:

Sinn Fein 26.5% 130,000 votes
UCUNF 18.5% 91,000 votes
DUP 16.9% 84,000 votes
SDLP 15.1% 75,000 votes
TUV 14% 70,000 votes
Alliance 5% 25,000 votes
Greens 3% 15,000 votes

i haven't had such a detailed read out from the somewhat deflated looking DUP officials but when I was last talking to them they maintained they were in the lead of the unionist pack on around 18 - 20% to the UUP's 16% and the TUV's 14%.

There were interesting stories about individual constituencies. UCUNF maintained that Jim Allister had won out in North Antrim, although the DUP in North Antrim denied this. UCUNF also said Jim Nicholson had clearly won DUP seats like Lagan Valley and Upper Bann.

The Westminster expenses story and doubts about Diane Dodds' TV performances (most notably the last Politics Show debate) clearly played into the DUP reversal. As the dominant party in the Executive they were also always going to be in line to be hit by a protest vote (quite a turn around for a party founded on protest).

However I think one of the most important factors is that this was the first election since the DUP did its deal with Sinn Fein. They were always going to lose a section of their "never, never, never" support base. If he has got anything like 70,000 votes Jim Allister will have built massively on the 10,452 votes garnered by Bob McCartney in the 2007 Assembly elections. Indeed he will have more or less replicated his party's showing in the Dromore by-election where Keith Harbinson got 27% of the unionist vote.

UPDATE: As the Alliance General Secretary Gerry Lynch just explained on Inside Politics, tallying is harder in European elections than other counts because, during the verification process, the election workers keep the ballot papers face down. So party activists are trying to spot "1s" for their candidate by peering through to the other side of the paper.

Kate Hoey told us she backs Alan Johnson, but isn't convinced now is the right time for Gordon Brown to step down. She also ruled herself out of the election for Speaker and scotched some rumours about the possibility of her returning to Northern Ireland to hook up with the DUP.

On the newswires the Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan has just said that bringing forward a Dail election would be "catastrophic". Now doesn't that remind you of another political leader who recently argued that an early election would bring "chaos".

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The Chief Electoral Officer Douglas Bain has just confirmed the overall turnout figure for the European election. It's 42.81 % the lowest in recent times.

Is the apathy a reflection of antipathy towards politics in the wake of the Westminster expenses scandal and a sense that all politicians are on the "gravy train"? Or maybe we should look on the bright side - in the past Northern Ireland's exceptionally high turnouts were a by product of the troubled times and a determination from voters to keep the other side out. So maybe a level of relative disinterest is a sign of a more normal society?

Lats time I blogged I still remained to be convinced that the SDLP could squeeze in. Now I'm not so sure. If the scenario which Diane Dodds described as a "disaster for unionism" played out what would be the implications for the Robinson leadership. Could the DUP, looking over its shoulder at Jim Allister, mount a go slow on policy at Stormont?

Although the general turnout might have been down, one voter who did make an extra effort was the Ulster Unionist MLA Billy Armstrong. He'd ruptured his vertebrae in an accident at home on Friday and was in Antrim Hospital. He had to be fitted with a brace at the Royal Victoria Hospital in Belfast, but from his prone position in the back of the car he insisted on a diversion on his way back to Antrim hospital. You guessed it all braced up for voting, he wanted to stop off at his polling station in Stewartstown.

The last six constituency turnouts were

East L derry 42.34%
Foyle 44.35%
Ferm Sth Tyrone 51.52%
West Tyrone 50.27%
U Bann 41.81%
Newry Armagh 49.05%

Overall Total 42.81%

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I've spent the day up at the Kings' Hall in South Belfast where election workers have been verifying the papers from 1600 ballot boxes. Party officials are keeping a close eye on the proceedings, and although the count proper doesn't begin until Monday morning the glances they get at the papers today provide them with a decent guesstimate of how things might go on Monday.

So far the turnout looks to be the lowest in recent times, probably around 42%. Although an official overall turnout figure won't be calculated until eight o'clock this evening, figures for individual constituencies range from Martin McGuinness's Mid Ulster, the highest so far at nearly 53% down to Iris Robinson's Strangford, the lowest at just over 34%.

It looks like the Sinn Fein candidate, Bairbre De Brun is on course to top the poll comfortably with perhaps as much as 28% of the vote. The three unionist candidates appear to be tightly packed, which means the Traditional Unionist Jim Allister must have taken a significant percentage of the DUP vote. So far the Conservatives and Unionists appear to be optimistic that Jim Nicholson's vote has held up, but with such a tight field it's impossible to say at this stage how the count will pan out so far as the last two seats are concerned.

DUP sources acknowledge that a final debate on the 91Èȱ¬'s Politics Show did not go well for their candidate Diane Dodds, but they put down the low turnout in many areas to antipathy with politics and the Westminster expenses saga.

The SDLP looks to have polled well in some urban areas like South and North Belfast but less well in some rural areas like Mid Ulster. It's too early to say whether they stand a realistic chance of grabbing the third and final seat. Maybe its a mathematical possibility but I'd be very surprised if it happens.

The seven candidates, however, won't know their fate for certain until Monday when the party votes will be counted. The Kings Hall count has been delayed until then partly in order to allow all the other EU member states to complete their voting and partly as a nod to any sabbatarian instincts amongst the politicians and election workers. This will mean that Northern Ireland will be the last region in the UK to announce a result.

So far these are the official turnout figures for 12 constituencies

East Belfast 38.82%
North Belfast 40.98%
East Antrim 34.53%
North Down 34.48%
South Antrim 38.03%
Strangford 34.24%

South Belfast 42.1 %
West Belfast 46.6 %
Lagan Valley 38.86 %
South Down 44.97%
Mid Ulster 52.83%
Newry/Armagh 43.7%

Correction : thanks to those commenters who noticed a slip here Newry and Armagh turnout was 49.05%, whilst North Antrim was 43.17%

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I mean the European election, although given the turmoil at Westminster you might think we were referring to Gordon Brown's tenure as Prime Minister. A radical reshuffle appears on the cards, and Shaun Woodward has been mentioned as one of a number of possible candidates to replace the outgoing 91Èȱ¬ Secretary Jacqui Smith.

As I write I am listening to the Chief Electoral Officer on 91Èȱ¬ Radio Ulster's Evening Extra admitting "a simple error" in relation to about voters in the Shankill being asked to pay to pick up their polling cards. Douglas Bain says anyone who has paid out will be refunded in full.

Sinn Fein has also complained about voters not getting polling cards. Electoral Office sources say the Royal Mail has delivered all the one million plus cards sent out. However they are emphasising that you don't need a card to vote, just a valid form of photo ID. If anyone has any problems they should ring the Election help line on 0800 432 0712 between 7 am and 10 pm tomorrow.

The other parties, the Conservatives and Ulster Unionists, the SDLP, Alliance and the Greens have all put out their eve of poll statements. There also was a last day boost for Jim Allister from the which ranked the TUV leader "Top of the Pops" amongst outgoing MEPs.

I'm off to prepare for a broadcast on 91Èȱ¬ Newsline 6.30. Tomorrow I'm told the moderators will be holding back comments which directly impinge on the election race. But we shall be back to normal service after polling stations shut their doors at 10pm.

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A good day for the A bad day for the

After Deirdre Nelson and Harry Greenaway quit the DUP, their old party called them "rejects" and "opportunists". What does that make Arlene Foster, Jeffrey Donaldson and Shaun Woodward?

All defectors leave on points of grand principle as opposed to anything to do with their own careers. I am looking forward to the day when a defector proclaims "I have no problem whatsoever with my old party's policy positions. But there are at least half a dozen old codgers who won't vacate their seats and I have no chance of getting anywhere unless I jump ship. Plus how I am supposed to get promotion after having spilt wine all over the constituency chairman's jacket at the annual cheese and wine do?"

Tonight the South Belfast councillor Jim Kirkpatrick also switched allegiances, leaving the DUP for the UUP. Having surveyed Jim's between the unionist parties I was reminded of Cedric Wilson's old nickname. If Cedric was the "serial protestor", then Jim must be the "serial defector."

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