91Èȱ¬

A happy new year to you from Treorchy!

Whether you live in Wales and love it, live in Wales and wish you didn't or wish you ran it, have left Wales but wish you hadn't had to, have left Wales and never intend to get stuck here again ... yet haven't quite got away ... thank you.

Whether you comment because you just have to as soon as you've finished reading, whether you comment because you have to whether you've read the entry or not really, whether you comment because others who've commented have got it so very wrong, whether you'd never even consider commenting because of all those others who seem so sure they've got it right ... thank you for being 'here' at all.

Blwyddyn newydd dda i chi un ag oll.

To those who had a year to forget in 2009 and to all of those who could do with a cracker this year - I wish you a very, very happy 2010.

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• - What's this?

I'm sure it's good for the soul or at the very least character building: recording programmes predicting what will happen over the coming year while sitting back and listening to the bit of last year's programme where you predicted what would happen during this one. And finding you were wrong.

I was wrong, at least, about Nick Bourne. The Tory leader's days, I reckoned, were numbered. Boy, did the presenter enjoy playing that particular clip. Mind you the sports panelist thought both Cardiff and Swansea City would be promoted (from the presenter's 'got you' response I'm assuming they weren't) and the economist played it safe last year and went for 'unemployment will be a problem'. Well he wasn't wrong there.

So, said the presenter with more glee than necessary, let's tip-toe as far as the General Election. What will it look like in Wales?

Deep breath, smile, make sure you avoid predictions at all costs. Ok, what will it look like?

It will happen during a period of change in Welsh politics that no-one my age or anywhere near my age come to that, can remember. Labour have been doing worse here in Wales than in England. The party itself has - or many in it - have been arguing it's about where we're at in the political and economic cycle. Others suggest it's more basic than that, more involved with the new political canvas we have in Wales, one that has an Assembly as part of it, one where single party dominance is destined to become a thing of the past.

Labour, the dominant force in Wales for so long, has come out of the last three elections - the Assembly, local and European elections - with historically low votes. We said it with some surprise the first time, forcefully the second and shouted it out loud the third. At that point, June 2009, the Conservatives brushed Labour aside in the popular vote. There was barely any red on the final map that night outside the South East. Plaid didn't do as well as they'd predicted but weren't that far off pushing Labour into third.

When the General Election comes, how possible is it that Labour will be wiped out in the West, in fact anywhere other than the South East? It would be a bad, bad night for that to happen but they have had to get used to those recently.

It was only 1997, remember, when the Welsh Conservatives were completely wiped out in Wales. Forget the West, or hanging on in the South East. There was no blue on the map at all. I was sitting on a canal boat in Bath the day after that General Election, hanging over the side and twiddling the radio to find out whether Jonathan Evans had hung on to Brecon and Radnorshire or not. He hadn't. Pretty remarkable that twelve years on, the Tories in Wales will be thinking more in terms of 1983 and their record of 14 seats.

Plaid Cymru will want to pick up five seats at least - a record for Plaid in Westminster elections. Bear in mind too that their new Director of Elections, Helen Mary Jones, will regard this poll - as will the party - as laying the ground for the big push in the Assembly elections in 2011. Put in the ground work this time, get names known, young faces recognised, cut majorities big time and next time? You can argue with some conviction that you're in it to win it.

What's the Liberal Democrat plan? Three of their four seats are under pressure, with only Cardiff Central feeling rock solid. They could gain a couple - the bookies certainly seem to fancy their chances in Swansea but if they end up going backwards, does Kirsty Williams start feeling the pressure? Does the party she leads have a plan of action?

And what will the candidates and the voters want to talk about? Shall I take a leaf from the economist's book and suggest that 'unemployment will be an issue?' I think I'd be pretty safe, along with the state of the economy, how much funding there is - or is not - available for public services and - of course - trust in MPs.

The General Election will probably look and feel and sound a bit like that, I ventured, haltingly, before heading home and wondering which particular sentence will come back to sound-bite me in December 2010.

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• - What's this?

So come on then, what do we know in the dying days of 2009 that we didn't know when it arrived?

Let's think ... and kick off with Nick Bourne. We now know he's in charge of the Welsh Conservatives. He was leader this time last year but by no stretch of anyone's imagination was he in charge. The briefing against him was vitriolic, public and came pretty much exclusively from within his own party. He 'thought up party policy on coastal walks in West Wales' with his closest mates and laid it before the group on his return as a fait accompli. Listen to ideas put forward by others? Pah, certainly not. Judgement? Just consider the iPod. Cue lots of eye rolling and head shaking. He'd brought the party a long way but oh, it was time to go.

How did he survive?

Because so many Conservative AMs thought they deserved a crack at the leadership whip. Too many. Each named the other as a possible stalking horse and no-one made a move. Is there a law that says the more ambitious would-be candidates there are, the safer the leader? There must be. It should, perhaps, be renamed Bourne's Law.

What else?

We know that at the very end of the year, the UK is still in recession.

We know that Wales has come out worse from the past 12 months than just about any other part of the UK. We know that as far as earnings go, wealth creation, the state of the manufacturing sector, you name it, Wales is doing badly at it. 'Gaps' between England and Wales that have been in the headlines since you or I can remember are growing, not closing.

We know that PROact and REact - schemes to shield Welsh companies - have been praised and aped but we don't yet know to what extent they've inured Welsh workers from the worst of the recession . We do know that by the end of the year, tens of thousands of Welsh workers have lost their jobs and tens of thousands have given up on finding one. We do know that Wales is the poorest part of the UK.

We know that finding out how the expenses system has been used to the hilt by many and abused by some MPs has changed the voting public's attitude to politicians and political institutions for a very long time. The way the story was told, the appetite for it amongst a public who were somehow incredulous and at the very same time convinced they'd known all along that 'they' were all in it for the money, has left its mark on politicians. Let's be clear though: it's left even more of a mark on the people they represent.

What we don't know is what effect it'll have on who might want to stand come 2010, or on one or two who had planned to stand in 2010 and in 2011.

We know that Labour voters stayed at home on June 4th. Labour activists refused to go out shoving leaflets through doors. What they didn't do is worth knowing too. They didn't simply switch and vote for another party. Some went here, some went there but mostly they went anywhere but the polling station.

We know UKIP are electable in Wales and that Conservative supporters came out and voted. We know Plaid got their vote out in those seats they could realistically win in 2010. But elsewhere? If they'd hoped disillusioned Labour voters would gift their vote to Plaid, they were sorely disappointed. We know too that having a new leader didn't raise the Lib Dems from the drop-dead unconvincing fifth spot.

We know that Rhodri Morgan meant it when he said he was planning to stand down 'on or around his birthday.' His own party weren't sure he meant it. Labour insiders in Westminster certainly weren't sure he meant it. Journalists thought he probably did himself but weren't sure the party would let him.

We know too that a referendum is more likely than it was at the beginning of 2009. We know that because the long-time alibi of the Assembly Government, the All Wales Convention, has published its report. It's turned round and left the politicians to make up their own minds in much the same way as my parents used to leave me to make up mine on the important stuff - having made it absolutely clear which was the right way to go.

The referendum, if won, would untie some of the strings that bind the Assembly to Westminster - constitutional strings that we know for sure get knotted every now and then, strings that the Convention say tend to strangle progress. We know they believe there is a better way that would get Wales a better deal.

What neither they, nor anyone else know, is whether the people of Wales have given much thought, let alone started to form an idea, of which way they would vote. How would they know? At the end of 2009, those who want a 'yes' vote - and change the status quo - know one thing above all else: if they intend to hold a referendum and win it, then they must make the running, make the argument and make the country listen.

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• - What's this?

One of these two climate change fighters will be appearing via satellite link from Copenhagen on tonight's Dragon's Eye Green Wales debate. They'll be accused of turning our country into a "ration book Wales" with their "authoritarian" preaching.

Tune in to find out which one.

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• - What's this?

Remember the commitment in the One Wales Agreement to launch a Welsh language daily newspaper?

Remember the

Remember how when the then Heritage Minister announced extra annual subsidies of £200,000 for Welsh language media over three years when a daily paper would need a minimum of £600,000 a year and substantial public sector advertising to be viable?

Remember the row that ensued?

Did you think any commitment to find ways of funding a daily Welsh language newspaper was a thing of the past?

I did. But tonight an intriguing suggestion that one of the Welsh parties will make a commitment in their manifesto for the upcoming General Election to support the launch a daily paper in Welsh.

Whose manifesto?

The party who has "Welshed-up" - as I'm told the process is now called in academic circles - pretty succesfully over the past few years; the party who wants voters to question what Plaid has delivered in office.

Got it in one: the Welsh Conservatives.

Calls in - no response yet.

UPDATE

The Welsh Conservatives have heard the whispers too. Their response? They have always been supportive of the idea of a Welsh language newspaper and have made that very clear but haven't yet done the number crunching. When they do in and if the money adds up, then they might consider the idea of including a commitment to fund a Welsh language newspaper in their manifesto. Then again ...

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• - What's this?

Oh, if only Edwina Hart had seen this press release before she headed to London yesterday to give evidence to the Welsh Affairs Select Committee.

Not only might it have cheered her up. It would also have given her a come-back to the MP who welcomed her with the words: "Good to see you here, Minister. We didn't think you liked us, took you so long to get here."

Martyn Jones, MP for Clwyd South, has put out a press release calling for free prescriptions for people in his constitutency with long-term conditions. Mr Jones says he is backing a campaign urging Gordon Brown to keep a promise he made over a year ago, to abolish prescription charges for people with long-term conditions.

That'll be in England, then.

Mr Jones says "I'm concerned about the number of people with long-term conditions in my constituency who may be choosing to go without vital medicines as a result of the recession and the rising costs of fuel and other bills. Gordon Brown was right to promise free prescriptions for people with long-term conditions, but he must now follow through and implement this promise as soon as possible."

As Mrs Hart would no doubt have loved to point out, the people of Clwyd South haven't had to pay for their prescriptions for quite some time now. Devolution and all that.

Oops.

UPDATE

Plaid MP Hywel Williams responds like this:

"Oh dear, it appears that someone has not been paying very much attention. I'd be the last to suggest that, in the Christmas rush, he may have put his name to a ready made press release but it is rather an embarrassing oversight!

"On a positive note, I am glad to see him supporting a policy that the Plaid driven One-Wales government is rightly very proud of - and something that he feels Gordon Brown is playing catch up with Welsh policy over."

While Plaid AM Janet Ryder responds like this:

"It appears that the MP has not been paying very much attention to what is actually happening in Clwyd South. I'd be the last to suggest that, in the Christmas rush, he may have put his name to a ready made press release but it is rather an embarrassing oversight!

"On a positive note, I am glad to see him supporting a policy that the Plaid driven One-Wales government is rightly very proud of and something that he feels Gordon Brown is playing catch up with Welsh policies. Next year voters will get a chance to vote for someone who will put the people of the area first and not lose touch."

No question of Plaid MPs and AMs ever putting their name to ready made press releases of course.

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• - What's this?

It's Christmas so ask and you shall, if you've been good, get.

You asked, says a knowledgeable source, why Edwina Hart was so fed up at the photo opportunity to unveil the new Cabinet.

Never a fan of cameras, she seemed less inclined than usual to smile for the official snapper.

Could it be, came the suggestion, as a result of the news that though she'd held on to the key Health and Social Services portfolio, have been taken away and given to other Ministers? And she'd only just been told?

Like what?

Youth Justice. Gone to Leighton Andrews atd the Children, Education and Lifelong learning department.

Who will now support the First Minister on issues relating to the Civil Contingencies Act? No one. Move over Mrs Hart. He'll do it himself.

And who will in future be the liaison point for the Armed Forces in Wales and Veterans, the responsibility that meant it was Mrs Hart who travelled to Normandy to

It's Mrs Hart no more. The man with responsibility for 'liaising' for the Armed Forces in Wales is the .

Might that go a little way to explain that cabinet photo?

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• - What's this?

What was that again?

Should AMs be allowed to employ their own spouses and children?

Let me recap.

The aspiration/recommendation - call it what you will - was that they should not. The Assembly team charged with implementing the recommendations was then given legal advice that if challenged in the courts, such a ban would be difficult to defend.

So where are we now? AMs will be able to have family members working for them, as long as they appointments process is rigorous.

Should MSPs be allowed to employ their own spouses and children?

Ah - guess what! A review of the Scottish Parliament allowances system has recommended that MSPs should be banned from employing family members at taxpayers' expense. Read the same sort of headlines that you read here in Wales some time ago .

What did Sir Christopher Kelly conclude when he considered whether MPs should be allowed to employ family members? That they should not. Did he think that could be implemented? This from the Guardian live blog from the day the Kelly report was published:

"Asked about the legality of banning MPs from employing spouses, Kelly says he cannot be "100% sure" that this would survive a legal challenge. He has taken legal advice on this, but it was not absolutely clear, because legal advice never is. But he says that he thinks the ban could be justified in court as a "proportionate response" to the problem. He also says it is not clear whom a spouse would sue. Employees normally have to take action against the employer. In this case, that could lead to a wife taking action against her husband".

Looking wider afield, the Scottish Parliament review helpfully points out that the European Parliament no longer permits family members to be employed by MEPs

So ... for the final time, will elected politicians be allowed to employ family members in future?

IF the Kelly recommedation is implemented, MPs won't.

IF the McIntosh recommendation is implemented, MSPs won't.

MEPs already can't.

The Jones recommendation wasn't implemented, so AMs will.

The message from the Assembly in response? It's a history lesson Jim - but not as we know it.

An Assembly spokesman said, "The independent Panel intended its Recommendation 65 to be read in conjunction with recommendation 66 , which are both included in the section of the report about employment of family members . Recommendation 65 means that AMs should not in future recruit family members, unless they are recruited by the transparent process in accordance with Nolan principles referred to in 66. In order to avoid any misunderstanding Commission staff checked that this is what the Panel intended and this was confirmed. It was also confirmed that the Panel would have preferred to see the employment of family members by AMs prohibited altogether. However, in order to ensure that their recommendations were legally robust they obtained their own independent legal advice on the matter and it was on that basis that they accepted that they should limit their recommendation to requiring future recruitment of family members by AMs to those who could be demonstrated, by a fair and transparent process, to be the best candidate for the job.

"The position of the Assembly Commission has been consistent throughout. It has always been committed to implementation of the Panel's recommendations in their entirety. Any suggestion to the contrary seems to have been based on a misunderstanding of the effect of recommendation 65 (as linked with recommendation 66) as explained above.

"Changes to the current rules relating to the appointment of Assembly Members Support Staff(AMSS) are not scheduled to come into effect until 2011 and are likely to be made by the first formal Determination made by the NAW Remuneration Board which will be established if the Proposed NAW (Remuneration) Measure currently before the Assembly becomes law. The Board, when established, will be able to review the Panel's recommendations and, if there is a strong enough reason, to depart from them. Since the Panel's recommendations 65 and 66 are based on the current legal position the Board would be able to take account of any changes to the relevant legislation which take place in the meantime (for example any legal changes which might come in the wake of Sir Christopher Kelly's recommendation that the employment of family members by MPs should be banned altogether. "

Hang on. Let's examine on what basis any "misunderstanding" of the Jones report may have taken place.

First to the report itself - and paragraph 8.90.

"We...object in principle to the employment of family members and believe this should be avoided.

8.91: "The Panel acknowledges that the current arrangements may work well on occasion but, as a general principle, the Panel consider this practice should cease over time, in the interest of public confidence and best use of public funds.

Recommendation 65 - "We believe that members should not henceforward make any new appointment of family members".

Recommendation 66 - "Any new recruitment of support staff should be subject to transparent recruitment procedures in line with the new policy and with Nolan principles."

What is that "new policy" - well that's under Recommendation 64 - "A new Recruitment Policy should be produced for the selection of Assembly Members' support staff." Point (iv) it should cover, say the Panel is "rules restricting the employment of family members".

No reference to "independent legal advice" there.

Now let's examine the Assembly Commission's own response to the Jones report, dated July 7, which examined how achievable each of its recommendations were, and the timescale for implementation.

On recommendation 65, the legal advice is as follows, "Amendment to the Determination needed. A Determination made by the Commission must comply with the various levels of equality legislation. However, a rule whose effect would be to discourage the employment of family members would not contravene any of the equality strands (sex, ethnicity, age, sexual orientation, disability etc.) governed by equality legislation."

The Accounting Officer's view? "Achievable" That is "there are no financial, governance, legal or operational obstacles to implementation"

And the recommended action? "Post Election implementation. The 2009 Determination will require amendment to indicate that the salary costs of the employment of family members will not, in future, be met from public funds."

Now either the Commission itself misunderstood the recommendations on future employment of family members - or there's some rewriting of history going on here.

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• - What's this?

Should AMs be allowed to employ their own spouses and children?

The commission who put AMs salaries and expenses under scrutiny asked that very question and came to the clear conclusion that no, they shouldn't. If they already do, they can carry on because 'her indoors' or 'him indoors' - when in the office - have rights as employees but if AMs don't employ spouses and children, they can't start now. They key proposals are set out clearly enough .

The headlines that day were equally clear: "The Radio Wales headlines ... Assembly is accepting recommendations for sweeping reform of AMs expenses, stopping them from buying second homes or employing family members ..."

Why did Roger Jones and his panel come to that conclusion? It's a matter of "public confidence and best use of public funds".

Is the matter closed? Thanks to the Conservatives' Mohammad Asghar, it turns out it's rather spectacularly not.

In an interview with Paul Heaney on Newport City Radio, broadcast yesterday, relating to his decision to cross the floor, Mr Asghar talked about just the one issue. The cogent arguments outlined in Saturday's Western Mail essay had been put to one side. Forget his disagreement with independence (for which he voted on November 7th as Plaid point out.) Forget his take on the royal family. This was Mohammad Asghar responding "to

He went into some detail and the picture he painted was this: the South Wales East AM was initially told by Plaid's whip that he could employ his daughter as long as she was competent to do the job. Another colleague said he should check the issue with the Fees Office. He did and was told there was "no law yet" that would prevent him.

Plaid leader, Ieuan Wyn Jones, came to see him and Mr Asghar argued the case for employing his own daughter. She has a Masters in Politics and Media from UCL. She's well qualified and "who can look after my interests better" he argued, "than my own daughter?" Mr Jones thought it "fair enough. He went back. It was everything hunky dory. Wonderful". Not a version of events the Plaid leader says he recognises.

Nor the part, therefore, where Mr Asghar says the leader changed his mind. On the day Mr Asghar's daughter was travelling from London to Newport by train for the interview, he was told it would be "sensible if you don't let Natasha have a job". Mr Asghar, who already employed his wife, offered to pay his daughter's salary to charity, a charity of Plaid's choice and made it clear that "when Natasha moves in my wife will leave".

Plaid say that "at no point" did he offer to give her salary to charity. Even if the offer had been made, they say, the response would have been the same: he should not take her on.

"I think that was the last straw" said Mr Asghar. "I was not doing anything illegal. I promised to pay every penny of her salary to a charity ... and that was refused. You can imagine, as a father, what I had to do".

What he did was leave Plaid and join the Conservatives.

So Newport City Radio's Paul Heaney spotted the next obvious question listeners and constituents would no doubt want him to ask Mr Ashgar: is he looking to employ his daughter, now that's he's become a Conservative AM?

His response, spelling out that she too has left Plaid and joined the Tories, goes like this:

"I was very pleased and I tell you ... the truth. When I resigned, I never thought but she did it straight away with me. I know the Conservative party, the priority is to make every family in the United Kingdom prosperous and happy."

"So they're happy for Natasha to work in paid employment?"

"Yes, if she's competent. If she ticks all the boxes right, nobody should stop anybody working anywhere as long as they come through the proper competition channels. I was stopped by my own party".

"But your new party are happy to go though that selection process?"

"If she's good enough ... she can contribute to the community and to the party at the same time".

It's clear from the interview that Mr Asghar believes the Welsh Conservatives take a different view to Plaid Cymru on whether he can employ his daughter or not.

This is the comment from the Welsh Conservatives, who clearly wish their new recruit has stayed off the airwaves: "We have no comment to make other than to repeat our support as an Assembly group for the findings of the Jones Review." They insist that no promises, veiled or otherwise, have been made.

What does the Jones Review say?

"Recommendation 65: Assembly Members who employ family members,
as defined under the draft standing order at Appendix 13, should be
allowed to continue to do so. However we believe that Members should
not henceforward make any new appointment of family members".

Are we clear, then, that no matter which party Mr Asghar represents, he will not in future be able to give his daughter a job?

Actually, no.

Why? Because when it came to working out how the Roger Jones recommendations could be implemented and , the objections in principle to hiring your own family hit a legal buffer.

"The review panel wished to ban Assembly Members from employing members of their family but accepted legal advice that if challenged in the courts, such a ban would be difficult to defend. The review panel recommended that Assembly Members should adopt fair and open recruitment procedures when employing support staff. This does not preclude family members applying for such posts".

So where are we?

After the Assembly election in 2011 AMs will still be able to employ family members but only if they've been through a proper and robust interview process.

The Plaid group of AMs have decided to adopt the Jones review recommendation that no AM should in future employ a family member - robust interview or not.

The Conservative group support the recommendation but unlike Plaid, haven't chosen to adopt it as group policy.

Mohammad Asghar has moved from one group to the other, as he makes perfectly clear in his interview, at least in part because of that.

"Public confidence" in the Assembly and in Assembly politics? It hasn't exactly been given a boost by this episode, has it?

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• - What's this?

Tonight Carwyn Jones will be rubbing shoulders with Arnold Schwarzenegger in Copenhagen, at an evening reception in honour of the California Governor. Who knows, there may even be a chance, after mentioning how Wales is "doing its part to tackle climate change with its target of 3% a year emissions cuts", to discuss leadership styles.

Maybe not.

So what does the decision to bring in both his defeated rivals in the leadership race say about Carwyn Jones's leadership style? It's widely seen as a magnanimous gesture, neatly bringing together the different factions of Welsh Labour.

It's fair to say that in the official WAG Cabinet portrait his closest challenger, Edwina Hart doesn't look ecstatic to be there. That's putting it mildly. As the new ministers and deputies pose on the steps of Cathays Park, there's a good foot by my reckoning between her and a beaming Jane Hutt to her left. Semi detached doesn't really do it justice. Perhaps both women are thinking "I'm still here!" Only one can't believe her luck.

As the ministers mingled among the cameras after the official line up, Mrs Hart was seen stomping straight back into the WAG building, not to be seen again.

But let's be fair here: the Health Minister isn't known for her love of the cameras at the best of times, so perhaps we shouldn't read too much into it.

The other leadership contender did stick around for interviews. Huw Lewis landed a new creation - Deputy Minister for Children. Eradication of child poverty was front and centre of his leadership campaign, so it would seem a natural fit and in many ways, an offer he couldn't refuse. "Do you think Huw Lewis might be disappointed he didn't get a bigger job" I was asked by a Cardiff School of Journalism student. If he is, he doesn't really have the right to be. He fought the good fight. He changed, in a fundamental way, many people's perception of him. All to the good but in the end, he only won 19% of the vote.

Had he turned the deputy minister job down, the accusation would be, of course, you had the chance to get into government and make a difference but you turned your back on it.

According to WAG he'll be a deputy minister in the Department for Children, Education, Lifelong Learning and Skills, under Leighton Andrews - Carwyn Jones' campaign manager of course. But here's what the the WAG press release announcing the new cabinet says: "Huw Lewis will lead a newly created portfolio as Deputy Minister for Children. In this role Mr Lewis will have particular responsibility for co-ordination of Government matters relating to child poverty".

In a little reported interview by Huw Lewis during the leadership campaign for the Radio Wales phone in, he expressed in fairly blunt terms just what he thinks of the One Wales government's record on tackling child poverty. His turn to be grilled by Jason Mohammed came, entirely coincidentally, on the day the Assembly Government published its milestones on child poverty document which showed little change in many key indicators. As chair of the child poverty expert group, which had produced a blueprint for tackling child poverty, this was his response:

"This is a source of deep, deep disappointment to me. One of the reasons I'm running for First Minister is because of that deep frustration about that third of Wales' children that are left behind. One of the reasons is that the eradication plan that I produced back then, well, it's not been fully implemented across Government, and across indeed the whole Welsh public sector, as was the intention.

"The second reason is that we now have an even greater challenge in that the global recession has meant that all efforts to push down those child poverty figures are much more difficult which means again, we have to try much, much harder. We have to move faster and be absolutely relentless in our policy implementation to bring those figures down.

"It's not a question of more money, it's a question of bringing the weight of the entire Welsh public sector to bear on the issue."

Although his brief runs wider than DCELLS, there isn't a particular pot of funding aimed at child poverty. Just as well it's not a question of "more money" then. The rhetoric is of maximising the impact of spending across Government. But if there's one thing ministers don't like, it's being told how to spend their money. So what would be the reaction to Huw Lewis, even with his cross governmental role, asking - for example - the housing and regeneration minister who intends to spend £50m on project A, to spend half if not all of the £50m instead on project B because it would have, in his opinion, a better chance of combating child poverty. The words short and shrift come to mind.

As Carwyn Jones toured the radio studios on Friday he was asked whether Huw Lewis' initial opposition to the coalition with Plaid Cymru would be a barrier to effective co-operation in government. His reply was - I'm very confident it won't be. But then he went a whole lot further.

"Huw is someone who brings talents into Government, and this is a chance for him to build, to look at, a place in the Cabinet after 2011 if we win that election. So no, I'm very confident that Huw can do the job, and of course it's a job that's of major interest to him."

It's certainly of major interest to him. But based on his comments during the leadership campaign, there could be some frustrating times ahead. Men (and women come to that) of principle are the lifeblood of politics. They tend to resign if those principles are compromised. One of those with form on this, remember, is Huw Lewis himself.

We'll watch with major interest.

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• - What's this?

Carwyn Jones - First Minister
Ieuan Wyn Jones - Deputy First Minister, Economy and Transport
Jane Hutt - Business and Budget
Edwina Hart - Health and Social Services
Jane Davidson - Environment, Sustainability and Housing
Leighton Andrews - Children, Education and Lifelong Learning
Carl Sargeant - Social Justice and Local Government
Elin Jones - Rural Affairs
Alun Ffred Jones - Culture

Deputies:

Lesley Griffiths - Skills, Innovation and Science
Jocelyn Davies - Housing and Regeneration
Gwenda Thomas - Social Services
Huw Lewis - Children
John Griffiths - Counsel General and Leader of the Legislative Programme

Janice Gregory - Chief Whip

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• - What's this?

Outside the giant Christmas wheel in Cathays Park kept moving and so, if rather slowly, did the constitutional cogs and wheels that must turn before power moves from one First Minister to another.

The message arrived this morning from Buckingham Palace: the Queen had agreed Carwyn Jones' appointment as First Minister. He could now go ahead and take the official oath. Senior Presiding Judge for Wales, Mr Justice Nigel Davis - who in all his finery didn't, somehow, look like a 'Nigel' - was on hand to witness the occasion in the First Minister's office in Cathays Park.

Huge table. Small Bible. A typed sheet of paper and a biro that, when it came to it, didn't work.

" I, Carwyn Hywel Jones, do swear that I will well and truly serve her Majesty Queen Elizabeth the second in the office of First Minister of Wales, so help me God". Oh yes - our new First Minister is good at this sort of thing. He was clear, statesman-like, neatly laughed off the defective biro. "The best laid plans" he said.

On with the job.

On the steps outside the two Joneses at the top shook hands. This was their first proper photo opportunity, the first chance to smile - and be seen to work - as what you might call a team.

""We know a lot of work has been done with the One Wales government and I look forward very much to continue to fulfil the commitments that are in the agreement, particularly, of course, the good work that has been done in taking the referendum forward." That, in case there's any ambiguity, was Carwyn Jones.

Ieuan Wyn Jones wanted people's lives to improve. "The economic renewal programme is a key aspect of that as we make the Welsh economy more resilient and sustainable going forward" he said before driving home the message on the referendum: "the two of us have committed to make sure the commitments we had in the One Wales document are fulfilled."

Committed - got it? Just the kind of language that was making heads shake at last night's Wales Office reception in London. Was there a feeling afoot, I asked MPs from the side that is in and the side that thinks it'll be in soon, that the referendum might be held on or before 2011 as per the Labour/Plaid deal because .. how to put it ... because they can't not hold it now?

They nodded vigorously. That is how they see it. If they're right - and few supporters of holding a referendum soon would accept that they are - then they'd also be right in suggesting it's not the best reason for holding a referendum. It has, surely, to be for all sorts of other, better reasons. Perhaps here was a sign the new FM and his Deputy ware perfectly well aware of that. 'Improving peoples lives' after all, sounds like a much better reason for asking those people for their vote.

When will we know who's in the Cabinet I called out to Carwyn Jones as he turned to leave. He was working on it. "Watch this space!" he called.

Ah, you know what happens to space, don't you? People do insist on taking a stab at filling it. The latest round has Ms Hutt out, a name next to education - a very loyal one, a woman holding the Whip's job, two North Walian AMs in at Ministerial and Deputy Ministerial level and responsiblity for public service delivery given to someone 'at or near the top.' No mention of Huw Lewis' name but an interesting one as a possible Counsellor General.

The best rumour of all suggests we'll know - and can stop guessing - at around 4pm.

UPDATE

Spotted up in Cathays Park - Carl Sargeant, Lesley Griffiths AND ... Huw Lewis.
Add John Griffiths to the list ... and if you're interested in who might be in key positions behind the scenes, political lobbyist Daran Hill is promising 'exciting news' on his twitter feed.

UPDATE

The 'exciting news?'

Daran Hill of Positif Politics has become a trustee of the Bevan Foundation. Not sure that counts as a 'key position behind the scenes!'

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• - What's this?

Just back from watching Carwyn Jones taking the official oath.

More of that in a moment - the smart senior judge and a biro that didn't work - but already the rumours are spreading as to who he might appoint to his cabinet is at work.

Ieuan Wyn Jones has already accepted his new position in the cabinet. It is, of course, the same as the old one.

So what are the whispers? Jane Hutt not only stays in the cabinet but gets a Business and Finance portfolio ... Leighton Andrews gets Education while Jane Davidson and Edwina Hart stay where they are.

As I say - whisperings and rumours and no more. The suggestion from the Jones camp was that this round of changes would be written on a 'clean sheet of paper' - more a fresh start then, than a reshuffle.

If so, the whispers - even though they are only that - are a surprise.

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The things you see in Westminster.

I've just looked up and spotted a television monitor, letting members know what's going on both in the House of Commons and the House of Lords.

The green screen on the left simply says "Petition".

But the red one on the right says this:

BRIBERY BILL

Second reading

-------------------------

NATIONAL ASSEMBLY FOR WALES

(Legislative Competence)

(WELSH LANGUAGE) Order 2009

I know it's been a long and rocky road and that there are people desperate to get this LCO approved but ... surely it hasn't come to that?!

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So where has Alistair Darling's Pre-Budget Report (already re-named the Pre-Election report by George Osborne) left Wales?

These are the numbers:

The block grant goes up next year by £500m to £15.7 billion. "Goes up" since last year, yes but let's be clear here, it's not really "additional" as the Wales Office press release has it ... at least not in the sense that it's extra money coming our way because of the Chancellor's statement. It was coming anyway. It was already part of the Assembly Government's spending plans voted on yesterday.

The truly "additional" money coming to the Welsh budget as a result of today's statement comes in so-called Barnett consequentials, the knock-on effect of how much money is spent on areas like schools and the health budget in England. The maths means Wales gets an extra £13m. You'll have worked out already that in these belt tightening days, that's not a lot.

This is the line from the Wales Office:

"Despite a clamour from certain quarters for widespread public spending cuts ..." - get it? Labour have to make "tough choices" but the Conservatives are 'clamouring' for cuts - "Wales will receive an additional £500 million funding next year ... The Chancellor's Pre Budget Report (PBR) will lock in economic recovery and build for growth in Wales, while protecting frontline public services and rebalancing public finances in a fair way".

And here, for good measures, are some more figures for you, covering 2008 but . They concentrate on GVA, the measure of contribution made by individuals and companies to the economy.

Again, how does Wales fare? We're still bottom of the class - the worst performing part of the UK. The value of goods and services per head of population in Wales was 25.7% below the UK average - the lowest it's been in Wales since 1999.

The same figure for London was 69.5% above the average. Scotland was 2.1% below the UK average. Northern Ireland was 21.1% below the average.

Our bottom-of-the-class mates at times like this, the north east of England, is 22.6% below the UK average.

Now then: hands up who fancies the Finance portfolio?

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On the front page of today's Western Mail there's a stunning photograph.

I saw the snappers yesteday looking down on the scene in the chamber from the gallery, wondered what they saw that we'd have seen too if we'd looked more closely. The editor's pick was described to me last night but good pictures - like this one - speak for themselves. Rhodri Morgan leaves the chamber, head slightly bowed and no-one gives him a second glance. Four AMs get on with the job and don't even look up as he walks on by.

This "older person"? He'll be fine, of course. He will more than likely live an "active and fulfilled life" digging his garden and getting his hands dirty if there's a referendum campaign to fight. But the image was a reminder of a report published yesterday that got little enough attention: the Older People's Monitor 2009. Here was another snapshot that told a story.

It's an amalgamation of independent analysis of official indicators relating to the well being of older people in Wales - i.e. statistics - and a survey of a small number of older people - i.e. real people, real stories. The Monitor is there to focus Government policy and focus the minds of a nation that has more older people per head than any other part of the UK.

Another fact: the number of people who live to be eighty five and over is likely to double from 2007 - 2031. Work out how that will impact on any number of statistics and budgets and lives in future.

What does the Monitor tell us?

That older people believe social attitudes towards them are negative.

That they're not aware enough of the entitlements available to them.

That they feel it's not fair people like them who've saved and been careful

That older people who are working now want to carry on working as long as they can.

That they don't want to go into residential care unless they really, really have to but that too few get the grab rails and showers and stairlifts that would allow them to carry on living independently.

That they're afraid of what sort of treatment they'll get in hospital, even if it turns out to be pretty good. Another snapshot: an 82 year old woman who'd been in hospital at the same time as her husband. She says she'd asked to see him for days but that when she was eventually wheeled to his bedside and took his hand, she realised he was dead.

Services are patchy. Money is tight. There are real concerns around mental deterioration and loss of independence.

That's the black bit of picture - the first comprehensive survey of the well being of older people the Assembly Government has undertaken. There are white bits too of course, the stories told by those older people who live a fulfilled life and who get the help they need.

What happens next?

No point asking the man who was heading for the exit yesterday.

Carwyn Jones will be voted in as First Minister this afternoon, not long after the Chancellor has revealed just how bare the cupboard really is.

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It wasn't Mohammed Asghar who was forced to look for a seat for Rhodri Morgan's last First Minister's Questions. It was me. For the first time ever, instead of empty benches in the public gallery there were people and lots of them. I'll cherish the moment.

I eventually sat directly above the Presiding Officer. To his left I noticed . So where did Mr Asghar, the Conservative AM for South Wales East sit? Funnily enough it's the seat left empty by the Plaid Presiding Officer that allowed Conservative AMs to shift one to the right - yes, really - so that Mr Asghar could slot neatly into the Conservative benches. The list of names in the diagram had been hastily changed, red lines and names scribbled next to new seats and computers. Political life goes on.

The First Minister has given us all rather more warning of his departure from that chair in the front row.

The good wishes flowed thick and fast. Grandchildren were invoked an awful lot. Mr Morgan is looking forward to standing on muddy touch lines supporting his. No pressure on their team managers to keep picking them then, whispered my neighbour on the bench.

Lib Dem Eleanor Burnham would always remember Rhodri Morgan's contributions on committees in North Wales because "you were always so funny".

He was urged to reflect on young carers, education funding, electoral reform, obesity, anorexia and leading a Yes campaign in a future referendum. He wouldn't, said Mr Morgan more than once, be tempted to become a back seat driver. First Minister elect Carwyn Jones, his index finger in a bandage, typed furiously. As a back bencher he was looking forward, said Mr Morgan, to taking on local problems "such as bus services and ... other issues".

There was plenty of advice. William Graham quoted an aphorism that Paddy Ashdown once suggested was "a good motto for ex-leaders". It goes like this: "Don't speak to the captain. Don't spit on the floor". Mr Graham had, he said, always lived by it. William Graham spitting anywhere? Surely not.

Rhodri Morgan came up with some of his own aphorisms. "Happy the man for whom the bell tinkles before it tolls" was one that reminded the gallery of what they are about to miss.

His recounting of persuading his party to accept the One Wales agreement one day, watch Plaid do the same the following day and suffer a heart attack the next was another gem. It was delivered in Welsh and went something like this: "It must be the first time ever the cruxifiction has come three days after the resurrection". I'm not sure if the laughter that followed was nervous, or just confused.

More good wishes and it was over. Applause broke out in the chamber. It turned into a standing ovation that spread to the public gallery.

A quick thumbs up from the departing First Minister who'll be back before the end of the afternoon "to make a statement that will be the last matter of business".

What will he do now, asked my daughter this morning. Well, spend time with his grandchildren I said, dig his garden, take the dog for a walk. "Oh" she said, recognition lighting up her face. "I remember! He bought the dog for his two girls when he won, didn't he? It'll need lots of walks".

Ah, that was a different dog in a different country, I explained. It was a different leader too, one who's just starting out. This one? He's done his bit.

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The Plaid leader Ieuan Wyn Jones has reacted with "regret" and "shock" to the news that Mohammed Asghar has defected. Hearing the news throught the media won't have helped, I imagine.

"We were very proud of the fact that in campaigning hard for Mohammad Asghar's election in 2007 that Plaid Cymru ensured the first ever Assembly Member from the black minority ethnic community. It is has come as a shock that he has now decided that he shares the same values as those held by the Conservative and Unionist party."

The Chair of the Plaid Cymru group has got over the "regret" pretty quickly and is already calling on Mr Asghar to give up his seat.

"We now call on Mohammad Asghar to take the honourable decision to resign his seat as a Plaid Cymru AM. The people of the South Wales region did not want a second Tory AM to represent the area - they elected a Plaid Cymru AM. Mr Asghar does not have the political mandate to sit in the Assembly as a Conservative member for the South East."

The "little parrot" will tell us what he makes of that in the next half an hour.

UPDATE

Two questions:

Where will Mr Asghar sit when Rhodri Morgan gets up to take his last First Minister's Questions? It's not as if AMs can shuffle along benches after all.

Out of interest - and at this point no more - who was third on Plaid Cymru's list in South Wales East at the last Assembly Elections? It was Councillor Colin Mann, Deputy leader of the Plaid group in Caerphilly council.

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What's going on?

The Conservative briefing is usually a lonely affair for Nick Bourne. One colleague by his side, maybe two if he's lucky. Today we walked in to find the whole group seated in the front row: the full eleven were out to support the boss.

And Cheryl Gillan.

Why? Because in walked Plaid AM Mohammed Asghar to announce the group of twelve had become a group of thirteen. He is the first AM to have crossed the floor- the first full defection. He's left Plaid to take the Conservative whip.

And the Oscar goes to ..?

There were whoops and cheers from the eleven in the front row to welcome the twelfth. The thirteenth, Mr Bourne, was delighted at this proof that "we are the party with momentum behind us".

What had alienated Mr Asghar from Plaid? "Quite a lot" he said, before going on to mention the Royal family in whom he believes and the United Kingdom in which he believes fervently. Plaid's policy of independence? How had he squared that with a fervent belief in an United Kingdom?

We should check his speeches, he said. He'd only mentioned independence once. How does that work, we asked? You were elected as an Assembly Member for a party whose ultimate aim for Wales you cannot stomach? His voice, he said, "was a little parrot in a jungle".

Let's ask the question the other way round? Why did Plaid want this particular parrot on its list? Perhaps we'll get to ask that later.

Nick Bourne had felt for some time now, he said, that Mohammed Asghar would be very much at home with the Conservatives. Mr Asghar himself confirmed this morning that he's been a member of the party in the past but that when he joined the Tories twenty years ago, "nothing happened". Since then he's been a member of, I think his words were, a few other parties. Don't dwell on the past was the message, look ahead.

Perhaps, then, we should be less surprised than we are that Mr Bourne approached Mr Asghar - at least we understand it was that way round - on a poaching exercise that not only netted Mr Asghar but also his daughter Natasha, who's also stood for Plaid in the past. In fact, from the interviews flowing afterwards, it very much sounded as though Natasha was netted first. And as a list member, of course, her Dad gets to hold on to his seat. He doesn't have to stand down. A constituency AM - personal vote and all that - might feel more of a moral imperative to stand down though the rules do say that they too can hold on to their seat. (Check comments on this. They're quite right - the rules don't say a constituency member has to stand down).

How had Ieuan Wyn Jones responded? He hadn't yet, said Mr Bourne. They were yet to tell him. The first eleven, the twelfth and the boss enjoyed that one.

What happens next?

Mr Bourne confirmed that Mr Asghar will be second on the list come the Assembly election. Is William Graham, who's first on the list, about to retire? Or does Mr Asghar accept second place on the Conservative list in South Wales East is better than the prospect, whispered in my ear by a local Plaid member some weeks ago, of the Plaid list seat being made available to Adam Price as a route into the Assembly?

The Plaid leader is in a group meeting. I'll fill you in on what the 'jungle' drums have to say later.

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• - What's this?

They're still out there you know, the rumours that Gordon Brown may favour an early election. They were certainly to be heard loud and clear last week amongst those who spend their time around Westminster and those in Cardiff Bay who listen closely to what's said by those in Westminster.

Plump for March 25th, goes the argument and you'll make the most of improved GDP figures expected for this quarter and you'll get the election out of the way before people work out the implications of tax changes that'll hit them in April. No element of surprise any more and plenty of pressure on those who ought to be ahead of the game with their election planning but ... maybe.

The Conservatives are doing their bit to get the rumours heard. On Friday at the IWA's "Life under the Tories" conference*, more than one prominent Tory raised the possiblity over coffee and biscuits of a March election. They didn't think it likely, May 6th still feels far more likely but ... what did I think? You can't blame them. Talk of an early election, even if it goes nowhere, all helps to get their troops out and ready for the off.

No surprises then that new Welsh prospective parliamentary candidates are being selected left, right and ... well centre I suppose.

Former Ministers Christine Gwyther and Alun Pugh have been selected to fight Carmarthen East and Dinefwr in the West and Arfon in the North. and the go for a re-match.

My colleague Vaughan Roderick has already made the point that both feel like 'softening up' campaigns - in other words no victories likely this time round but no harm done either come the time Labour gets round to drawing up the list candidates for the 2011 Assembly elections.

The Secretary of State's take on it? "Both Alan Pugh and Christine Gwyther ... bring great experience to the job and they show the quality of the candidates Welsh Labour can offer people right across Wales". (Someone had better whisper in Mr Hain's ear that 'Alan' is in fact an 'Alun' if he's get anywhere in a constituency like Arfon.)

The voter's choice as Mr Hain sees it? "A vote for Labour and a route out of the recession, or a wasted vote on Plaid Cymru and other minority parties that can only open the back door to Number 10 for David Cameron and the Tories".

That's the message. Get used it.

But here's some news of a Conservative prospective parliamentary candidate who's decided to exit by the back door, rather than help Mr Cameron into Number 10. Trefor Jones, who was selected some time ago to stand for the Tories in Ynys Mon, has decided to withdraw his candidacy. He's a teacher and cites pressure of work. The look on the face of the party worker who passed on the news - no more than 6 months before the election - betrayed his disappointment.

Trefor Jones was a strong candidate for the Tories and he will, no doubt, be back. Ok, so he had a fight on his hands in Ynys Mon and he would have needed a great deal of support on the ground, along with the money to make sure that support got him somewhere. But now? The fight will be all the tougher. In a constituency where some Conservatives, tempted in the past to vote for the independent Peter Rogers might have come back into the fold to help Mr Cameron home, there was fighting talk locally of Mr Jones polling well and doing what football fans seem to like calling 'coming up through the middle'.

Let's see who takes on the fight now.

Back to *"Life under the Tories" just for a second. Nick Bourne would, he said, have much preferred if the conference organisers had plumped for "Working with the Conservatives" as a title for the day's discussions.

But "Life under Tories?" "Come to think about it, I think I'll take it!" he said.

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• - What's this?

I've heard of people being dumped by Email, text and even fax.

But Andrew Davies appears to have been sacked from the cabinet by press release. I give you Carwyn Jones' statement:

"From his first ministerial job as Business Manager, through to his current role as Finance Minister in the most trying circumstances, he was has shown unstinting dedication, skill and enthusiasm. I of course understand his decision to concentrate his energies on serving his Swansea West constituents for the next 16 months before going on to pursue other interests".

Not exactly what Mr Davies said, was it? But there appears to be little doubt about what exactly Mr Jones is saying.

"Has the Finance MInister just been sacked via press release?" I ask a Labour party source. Had the two men spoken? "The words of the statement are the words. They say what they say" he says. "You interpret them as you will".

I will. How about thank you and goodbye?

UPDATE:

I understand that the First Minister elect is yet to rule anyone in - or out - of his Cabinet. There. That's clear then. The words only appeared to say what they said.

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Who was it who urged Edwina Hart to go for the Labour leadership and pledged he would "do everything I can to make sure she is the next First Minister" ..?

Who was it who answered steely-eyed and with utter confidence when asked if she could win it, "Oh she will win it" ..?

It was, of course, Andrew Davies - AM for Swansea West, the Finance Minister and the sole politician who can sound enthusiastic about Local Service Boards.

Who has now announced that he's standing down as AM for Swansea West at the next Assembly elections? You guessed it.

The reselection process in Swansea West kicks off in January and Mr Davies won't be going for it. The cabinet 'reselection process' is, of course, more pressing. There were rumours aplenty that Mr Davies would jump before he was pushed from the table and he's gone.

Perhaps going of his own accord and putting out statements in which Rhodri Morgan praises his "legendary skills" and Professor David Warner of Swansea Metropolitan University writes that "this is a lucky day for some organisation which snaps him up" make it rather easier to walk into another job. Perhaps having a life - and yes, he has one, that involves a love of (taking) long walks and (watching) modern dance - feels like no bad thing after a heart scare last year.

Either way, he's off.

So how many Labour AMs have said they're planning to stand down come 2011?

I make it 8: Rhodri Morgan, Karen Sinclair, Jayne Davidson, Lorraine Barrett, Brian Gibbons, Irene James ,Val Lloyd ... and now Andrew Davies.

An extremely switched on Labour man whispered in my ear the other night that three prominent valleys MPs are planning to stand down at the General Election but are yet to say so. Perhaps they're afraid of being accused of joining the ranks of Peter Hain's quitters, not fighters. Remember his Brighton conference speech? "I mean do we really, really want to win?"

The same little bird made the point that when they go, there 'ought to be' all women shortlists in their constituencies. The thought of the mayhem that would cause brought tears to his eyes. He was laughing - at least I think he was.

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"Carwyn" said Welsh Secretary Peter Hain first thing this morning "is very seized of the whole of the party focussing laser-like on one target over the next few months and that's winning the General Election. Frankly nothing else matters".

I'm sure the new Welsh Labour leader and soon to be First Minister will have heard the message.

Half an hour later, in a studio just down the corridor, I listened as Ieuan Wyn Jones made it quite explicit that for Plaid Cymru, Labour's coalition partners, Carwyn Jones' confirmation last night that he is fully committed to delivering a referendum on or before 2011 matters rather a lot. "We won't be sitting down and deciding on the date today or anything like that" he added lightly but his implication was clear enough: by next week, he fully intends the two Joneses now at the helm to be "seized" by that very issue.

Let's just remind ourselves that a few days ago, when the Welsh Secretary and outgoing First Minister said that with regard to a referendum, Welsh Labour would only step up "wider Party consultation with AMs and MPs, councillors, trade unionists and members as soon as the General Election is over" Plaid threatened to end the coalition.

Delivering on both fronts? Never easy.

Welcome to the job Mr Jones - oh and by the way, you might have heard that on Friday, there's

You might consider sending a colleague with a notepad and decent shorthand.

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90% of the money that was put on the Welsh Labour leadership race was put on Carwyn Jones.

Comfortable. Sweeping. Decisive. Even crushing. Insert your adjective of choice here.

Here are the figures.

Carwyn Jones - 51.98 per cent
Edwina Hart - 29.19 per cent
Huw Lewis - 18.84 per cent

No need for the computers to whirr into action for the second ballot - it's outright victory - and a substantial mandate as party leader.

A breakdown of the figures within the electoral college system shows what a commanding win this was for Carwyn Jones.

In the first 33 per cent of the college, elected members, he won 17 per cent, as against Edwina Hart's 9 per cent and Huw Lewis's 7 per cent.

In the second 33, individual party members, his victory was even more decisive, winning 18 per cent, against Edwina Hart's 8 per cent and Huw' Lewis's 7 per cent.

In the third 33, unions and affiliated organisations, Carwyn Jones won 17 per cent, versus 11 per cent for Edwina Hart and 5 per cent for Huw Lewis

So it was a clear win in each of the three colleges.

In terms of individual unions, Carwyn Jones was virtually level pegging with Edwina Hart among Unite members - by far the largest union, and one that had endorsed her to win.

He won Unison by a substantial four to one majority over Edwina Hart, and the GMB by a similar margin.

The outgoing Labour leader and First Minister Rhodri Morgan said afterwards he felt six feet nine tall with the weight that had been lifted from his shoulders. Carwyn Jones is about to feel what it's like to carry that weight.

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In early to hear a lively debate amongst the security staff.

"It's Carwyn isn't it - bound to be".
"Yes, always was. He's the statesman."
"No! It's the lady's. She's got it - sure of it".

I bumped into the Hartinista again later. Still sticking to the lady? He was. I suspect he's got rather a tidy sum on it.

Up in the Bargoed Labour Club last night they thought it would be a close run thing, closer than the snooker match that was going on in the background. But everyone's telling them Carwyn Jones has got it so ... I asked them to stick to 'they' in the interviews about the new leader, rather than 'he'. Yes, I know the maths would suggest 'he's' got it but belts, braces, ifs and buts and all that.

Over in Bridgend Rugby Club the nerves were showing. "I hope you end up using this interview" says one of Carwyn Jones' long-time friends. "If you don't something's not gone according to plan. But you never know do you."

I don't suppose you do, not until the Chair of the Welsh Labour Party has sung.

What happens then?

Whatever the result Carwyn Jones and his team will be raising a glass. Huw Lewis and the gang will be off to a thank you party - all-comers welcome, no matter who you wanted in the job, no matter's who in the job. No news on Mrs Hart's plans.

And then? All eyes turn to next week - and the handover of real power.

On Monday 7th, Rhodri Morgan will chair his last Cabinet as First Minister.

On Tuesday 8th, he will take his last First Minister's Questions session. The Assembly will then vote on on the final budget for 2010-11. The public purse strings will have been tied. Later that afternoon the First Minister will submit his resignation to the Queen. You can, apparently, resign by Email these days as long as there's a hard copy in the post. No romance.

When there's confirmation that the resignation has been accepted - probably on Wednesday - the First Minister, the Counsel General and all government special advisers cease to hold office. Welsh Ministers, including deputy ministers, remain in office until a new Cabinet is appointed.

During plenary on Wednesday the "presumptive" First Minister will be put forward to a vote of the full Assembly. If he or she gets the nod, the Presiding Officer will make a recommendation to the Queen to that effect, again via email.

When the Queen's "approval is communicated" the new First Minister will take the oath, probably on Thursday morning, administered by the most senior judge in Wales. Rhodri Morgan never used to make a big, public deal of this. The new First Minister might want to. By the way the oath is laid out in Section 3 of the Promissory Oaths Act 1868 and can be administered in Welsh.

The First Minister will then supply a list of Welsh Ministers to Her Majesty for approval. Any new Ministers - who have not already sworn an oath as current Ministers - will take the oath, probably by Thursday afternoon.

So you have until Thursday week to come up with your thoughts on a new Cabinet. The same goes for the new Labour leader who's been sitting in the chamber this afternoon ... eyeing the chair bang in the middle of the front row.

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