91Èȱ¬

I've never live blogged a statement in the chamber by the First Minister before. This then, is a first.

He's not left the chamber while waiting his turn to speak. No sign of leaving for a conflab with Plaid, or his own side.

He's off. Kicking off in Welsh - thanking the Executive Committee of the Convention for their hard work - setting out what their job was.

Main challenge? Finding the elusive Mr and Mrs Joneses throughout Wales whom this is all about and finding out what they think.

Not whether WE think we've served a reasonable apprenticeship and should have more powers. WE are biased. It's what THEY think - Mr and Mrs Jones.

The core of the report: it is emphatic that there would be "substantial advantages" in moving form Part 3 (where we are now) to Part 4 (full law-making powers).

A yes vote? "Obtainable" but can't be taken for granted.

What should the question be? A no-brainer if you ask a question about Part 3 and Part 4 will not pass muster. But then the question is up to the Welsh Secretary.

We're on to a new metaphor.

The ball is in our court.

HANG ON:

"The Assembly Government intends in the new year to bring forward a motion for a full debate on the Convention's Report I am reassured that the Convention believes that our One Wales agreement to hold a referendum during this Assembly is both practical and achievable, but I must leave the details to my successor as First Minister. In the meantime, please digest this report with your turkey and Christmas pudding, and we shall return to this subject in the New Year."
T
his doesn't sound like the statement put out this morning, hand in hand with Peter Hain and Garry Owen in the name of Welsh Labour.

Nick Bourne agrees ...

14.58
Will the First Minister distance himself from the Welsh Labour statement put out earlier today?

Does he regret it?

The Presiding Officer interjects. Will the leader of the Lib Dems stop heckling? Her turn will come soon enough.

Nick Bourne leaps to her defence. She was encouraging, not heckling!

15.00
We were rather hoping Rhodri Morgan would answer Nick Bourne's question directly. Both statements say different things. By which one does he stand?

15.01
He doesn't.

We don't need certainty to go for a referendum. But remember the difference between what people said in opinion polls back in 1997 and how they actually voted in the sanctity of the ballot box.

HANG ON AGAIN:

I think you've misread this morning's Labor party statement. It doesn't say we won't talk about the timing of a referendum. What it does is ask how do you generate a Yes vote ... while there is a General Election campaign on? How can you do that with whole-hearted participation not just from Labour but from all parties while your attention is on a General Election? The statement doesn't say we won't talk about it.

He's clearly trying to calm the mood - oil on troubled waters.

(I check my messages. This from a Labour backbench AM: "People are furious and this morning's group meeting was both shocked and angry. Rhodri cannot bind his successor. We could again be seen as being on the back foot and losing public confidence. This cannot not be allowed to stand."

15.04

Helen Mary Jones responds for Plaid.

Doesn't want anything to undermine the trust and co-operation that has so far been the feature of discussions about a referendum/forming the Convention/terms of reference etc

15.06

Here we go: Can the First Minister confirm that nothing in this morning's joint statement with the Secretary of State rules out any of the timings of a referendum within the framework of the One Wales agreement?

No wriggle room there. Will he rule back in (despite this morning's statement) a referendum in the Autumn of 2010?

15.09

Rhodri Morgan: on the question of timing ... the statement was about making progress, not about how it's been interpreted which is about slowing down progress. Its' about practicalities. How do you move forward to a Yes vote in a referendum. That'll be up to my successor and Ieuan Wyn jones and the Secretary of Staet.

But when you look at the windows available to hold a referendum, then it will take some months before you can hold a referendum.

We're agog. He's stopped. He doesn't seem to have ruled it in or out. But his tone is unmistakably conciliatory. A sort of First Ministerial 'we didn't mean it like that, honest'.

15.12

The 'encouraging' Kirsty Williams on her feet.

Does he agree that the Autumn si the optimum time for a referendum? If so, there would need to be a vote in January or February to trigger it. You've made clear this isn't a matter for you, or for you and the Secretary of State alone ... true ... but does this morning's statement rule it out, or does it not?

What is there to stop this National Assembly taking this vote in January or February next year? is there anything in your statement this morning that denies us that vote early next year? Surely Plaid Cymru will not sit by and allow that to happen.

The only comfort we can take from this afternoon's statement is that the cup passes from your lips to your successor's ... but do they have the dead hand of the Secretary of State on their shoulders?

15.18

A good speech by Kirsty Williams. The First Minister detects "partisan emotion" in the latter parts but doesn't shrug off her contribution as he sometimes is tempted to.

Don't talk about a 'dead hand' he chides. It's Labour who did the heavy lifting to get us to this point in the devolution debate.

He comments on the question (civil servants already having a go at it, it will be road tested by the Electoral Commission etc)

Back to timing: back to the statement. It does talk about progress but it's hard to imagine a Yes campaign operational in the run up to a General Election. It doesn't say we are banning any talk about this in the Labour party in the run up to an election.

15.23

The ever loyal Jeff Cuthbert joins in. For the second time today the last few words are the key ones: will the FM agree that there is nothing in the joint statement that rules out any timing of a referendum.

Over to Plaid.

Is what the First Minister has said this afternoon enough to placate senior figures who were livid just a few hours ago - or not?

UPDATE:

Plaid say they are still waiting on a clear statement from the First Minister that Labour have not ruled out an Autumn referendum. He has sounded conciliatory in the chamber but has not yet said so bluntly.

There are now off the record briefings coming from Labour that the joint statement in Rhodri Morgan and Peter Hain's name does NOT preclude holding a vote in the Assembly before the General Election that would trigger a referendum. It might sound as though it does ... But it doesn't.

Plaid have issued far, far more serious threats to the future of the coalition than Labour had expected. Some in the Labour camp seemed not to have 'got' quite how senior the Plaid sources were who were issuing those threats.

I think they have now.

15.57
I gather there's a meeting happening now down in the dark depths of the Cwrt (a stone's throw from the chamber) between Plaid and Labour special advisers. The joys of glass walls.

15.58

Rhodri Morgan has joined them.

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