91Èȱ¬

It's half term and I'm taking a week off - swapping Labour leadership-mania (should such a thing exist) for Aquamania, swapping manifestos for, I hope, a few mojitos.

I'll leave you with some predictions and a promise that the blog won't be dormant:

Tuesday's poll result will be seized upon and analysed in great detail by anyone and everyone who cares whether we have - or do not have - a referendum on or before 2011. Bear in mind that it's not only those who want more powers devolved who want that referendum held sooner rather than later. There are plenty who want it held soon in the hope that it is lost soon - a combination that may, one day, prove significant.

If the poll suggests anything other than the current "winnable" but not in the bag scenario, then someone pick up the phone. I'll need a mojito or two at that point. I suspect it'll remain at no more than "winnable" but that the trend will show an ever increasing number of people saying they are in favour of pressing ahead with devolving full legislative powers to the Assembly.

Peter Hain's speech on Thursday will be seized upon and analysed in great detail by anyone and everyone who cares whether we have - or do not have - a referendum on or before 2011.

The Secretary of State will have heard the same rumours as everyone else - that Sir Emyr Jones Parry's report, due to be published on November 18th - will surprise quite a few with the scope of the comment and the decisive nature of that comment. If that's right, then the pressure will be on the Labour Plaid government to deliver on its pledge of a referendum as spelled out in the coalition's One Wales Agreement.

Mr Hain can see it coming and on Thursday night he'll try to head it off.

Why?

Because he thinks a referendum could or even would be lost; because as its architect, he thinks the current system of devolving power via Orders, LCOs, is working well; because as its architect he just cannot accept that its days are and should be numbered; because despite his protestations that he's an ardent devolutionist, he doesn't actually want more power delivered to the Assembly; because he thinks Plaid would gain more than Labour from it; because he made promises to colleagues that they needn't worry about the One Wales Agreement back in 2007 because there just would not be a referendum.

I've heard all of those theories suggested or implied over the past few months. You'll have our own views but you can bet that on Thursday Mr Hain will start to apply the brakes.

Not that long after Sir Emyr delivers his report, David Cameron will come to Wales on a visit. Nothing unusual about that - he 'does' Wales quite regularly. This time, when asked about a referendum and whether, if he's in Number 10, he'd allow a Conservative Welsh Secretary to throw a spanner in the works and prevent it, he won't say that he wants to see devolution working or give a non-commital reply. He'll say 'no'. He'll make it clear that if two thirds of Assembly Members vote for a referendum, his government will go with it.

There'll be no great song and dance, no press conference in a posh hotel, no noses rubbed in it but we'll know why some senior Welsh Conservatives have been looking a lot more contended recently. The bear trap they had feared their party would walk straight into - big, bad Tories stopping the Welsh from having their say - has been spotted and will be avoided.

And with that I'm off to pack. Over the coming week my colleague Adrian Masters, who usually directs the gaze of the Dragon's Eye, will be taking over and keeping the blog warm. He'll do it with style. Pob lwc.

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