91Èȱ¬

Tomorrow morning there will be children to take to school, shopping to be done, parents to be looked after, work to be sorted. You may vote, you may not. You may vote thoughtfully, you may vote with your gut instinct, you may not vote at all.

Some of you won't care an awful lot who gets elected. Some of you will be up until the early hours, unable to sleep until you find out who is in and who is out.

This blog entry is unashamedly aimed at the latter lot: a check-list for Welsh anoraks to enjoy come the early hours of Friday morning. See you there.

Blaenau Gwent: Keep an eye out for suspended Labour big names: will they be returned regardless? Will the various factions in BG bury the hatchet long enough to form a coalition, if the maths allows it? Might that mean bad headlines for Labour come Friday but be a good thing for them in the long term?

Newport: Can the Liberal Democrats oust Labour leader Bob Bright in Ringland? There are whispers. If they can - big if - then that is what officially counts as "a scalp". Bear in mind that the death of two candidates in Newport means two wards - six seats - won't be sorted out until mid June. A hung council? Boy would that hurt Labour.

Caerphilly: Keep an eye out for the husband and wife factor: the independent Etheridge couple and Ron and Lynne. If Plaid make a comeback and do well tomorrow, on what are you betting? A Labour loss, a Plaid gain, a Labour/Independent deal or a ... Labour/Plaid coalition? Is Don Touhig sitting down?

The Vale of Glamorgan: what will prove to be the biggest scrap - Labour v Tories or a Tory gain leading to a Jeff James v Gordon Kemp contest?

Bridgend: Can the Lib Dems make the coalition stick? Labour's best chance of a return to some sort of power surely.

Swansea: Labour leader Dave Phillips goes to bed tonight knowing there are another 19 candidates in his ward. Mark it. Are Labour so keen to come back in Swansea that they'll talk to Plaid? Would Plaid really respond?

Carmarthenshire: Best bet? Independent/Labour hold. But if you were Labourites here, would you consider striking a deal with Plaid? You'd think long and hard before bargaining with the 'bloodsuckers' but ... Plaid have gone online, have campaigned hard, have done well in the past. Just take note.

Pembrokeshire: Conservative Independents are coming clean and standing as Conservatives. They must expect to do well. However the independent controlled "Kremlin on the Cleddau" - wonderful phrase, not mine - will remain but Labour MP Nick Ainger - watch out.

RCT: What did I say? Leighton Andrews is beaming with good reason but watch out for Treherbert.

Gwynedd: There may well be scalps taken but I just can't see as how it'll make a big difference to parents who send their children to schools in Gwynedd.

Conwy: NOC city.

Flintshire: Labour's only majority held council outside South Wales. Their new leader will go to bed tonight thinking over how to strike a deal with the independents, if he must. Will he have to use that rehearsed speech?

Wrexham: Chapel-going voters, football-supporting voters, former Forward Wales voters ... can Aled Roberts, Local Government Politician of the Year and Lib Dem leader deliver Wrexham to the Lib Dems again? It's a big ask.

Powys: How very dare you! There are independents who are actually having to face a contest this time! Who'll form a group with whom after the votes are counted?

Bring your pencils and see you Friday morning.

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• - What's this?

Anyone who choked on their cornflakes when they heard Andrew Marr quizzing Ieuan Wyn Jones about the demise of the Welsh language daily newspaper venture, 'Y Byd' the other morning may be interested to know that bids are now in for the £200,000 the Plaid Heritage Minister, Rhodri Glyn Thomas, did manage to find down the back of the Government's sofa to support a Welsh language daily newspaper.

They are: Llanelli-based media company Tinopolis, Trinity Mirror, Golwg, a new company set up by former broadcast news journalists (names vague but some of you may recognise) and Dyddiol cyf, who were behind the original 'Y Byd' venture.

Despite the speculation then, no bid from weekly paper Y Cymro, the Cambrian News or media company Boomerang.

May the best bid win and deliver something I want to read.

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IA visitor to the Assembly yesterday spotted a small boy, about 10, carrying a balloon. A security guard went up to him. "No balloons allowed" he said.

The guard took the balloon from the boy and chewed a hole in its neck - letting the air out. The boy was rather surprised.

He asked the guard why he'd done it was was told the Senedd had banned balloons. Why? Latex allergies. "If people with a latex allergy pick up the balloon there could be trouble." But of course.

Just thought you'd wonder, just like the visitor to the Senedd, whether there wasn't a better way of getting rid of hot air around here.

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• - What's this?

I don't know what colour the 91Èȱ¬ graphics department is intending to use to denote 'No Overall Control' but whatever it is, I hope that by the early hours of Friday morning they have enough of it to go around.

Around half of Welsh councils will start counting overnight so if you live in Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Cardiff, Flintshire, Gwynedd, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouth, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Swansea, Torfaen, the Vale of Glamorgan or Anglesey prepare for some early news.The rest get to it on Friday morning which is good for bleary-eyed officials, bad for pithy headlines.

Ask around and those Labour AMs who are here in Cardiff Bay and not still out campaigning will tell you they genuinely don't know what you're going to do to their party tomorrow. Neither do I.

Their vote collapsed in 2004. Who can forget those shots of Cardiff leader Russell Goodway in the count, his face falling as the Liberal Democrat stacks were mounting up? But ask what will happen tomorrow and you get a genuine uneasy admission that Labour themselves just don't know.

"10p 10p, if you gave me 10p for every time I've heard about the 10p tax rate on the doorstep .." ... I get the impression one or two canvassing Labour AMs could afford to give up their allowances. (Funny that. There may be something to say about allowances next week, the kind of something that's designed to regain people's faith in politics but let's stick to this week for now).

What about the other parties? The Liberal Democrats admit it'll be a tough few days. They don't, after all, need to do badly on Thursday to find that come Friday, deals are struck that leave them out in the cold. Just how badly would Labour need to win Swansea back to start considering sharing power with Plaid for instance? Four years ago, no way. Now? An awful lot has changed in four years after all.

The Conservatives are upbeat. What was described just a few weeks ago with touching honesty as 'a lack of hatred' on Welsh doorsteps is now, we're told by leader Nick Bourne, actual 'warmth'.

Plaid talk of 'interesting' wards and councils but aren't setting their sights too high.

So ready for another few rounds of the coalition jig? Nine councils are already run by coalitions; another nine by one party with an outright majority. It'll be no surprise if there are more of the former than the latter by next week.

Not all Labour faces are glum mind you. I make an honourable exception of Rhondda AM Leighton Andrews AM is openly beaming thanks to . He may not have said anything he hasn't said before but I doubt whether his reasoning - open mind, don't take us for granted Labour, let's get a parliament out of that other lot - will work its magic on RCT doorsteps.

I see that one council is more than keen to get going. I'd say was ahead of the game, wouldn't you?

UPDATE: Cardiff Council have now come back from the future, where polling stations were already closed the count underway ...

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The funeral of Gwyneth Dunwoody, the Labour MP for Crewe and Nantwich hasn't taken place yet but all the same, Labour have tabled the writ for the Crewe and Nantwich by-election.

The veteran Conservative MP, Sir Nicholas Winterton, doesn't think that's on. This morning he opposed the moving of the writ because he says things are being done with "unseemly haste".

Not so, say Labour who have the support of Mrs Dunwoody's family: "Our mother proudly represented this constituency for 34 years, and would not want to see local people go without an MP"

Given the matter's being discussed elsewhere I will mention that Gwyneth Dunwoody's daughter, Tamsin, who lost her Preseli Pembrokeshire seat in the Assembly last year, has confirmed she's hoping to fight for her mother's seat and 7,000 majority.

The shortlist will be announced this Friday.

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Remember this? Or even this?

Last time I looked the MPs sitting on the Welsh Select Committee seemed pretty clear that joint scrutiny with AMs of the new powers - LCOs - that will one day spawn Welsh laws was good; parallel scrutiny was bad.

So what are AMs to make of this message from the clerk of the Vulnerable Children LCO Committee?

"Dear all

The Welsh Affairs Committee met this morning to consider its procedure for scrutinising the revised proposed Order relating to vulnerable children.

Members will be aware that WAC originally intended to scrutinise the Deputy Minister, Gwenda Thomas AM, at their meeting on 8th May, and that it was hoped this could be a joint evidence session with the Vulnerable Children LCO committee.

Please note that WAC have postponed the meeting of 8th May, and are in the process of arranging the evidence session for a subsequent week. They have also suggested that it would be more appropriate for members of the Vulnerable Children LCO committee to attend this session in an observational capacity, rather than holding a formal joint meeting.

I will inform Members of the re-arranged date for the evidence session, and if any Members are available and would like to observe, we will make arrangements for them to do so."

Watch and learn ... or perhaps a case of watch with the mother of parliaments?

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• - What's this?

Ever got on a train and hoped that guy you know and who's got on it too will leave you alone and not spoil the journey by sitting in the same carriage as you?

Spare a though then for Gordon Brown and David Cameron who found they were both travelling to Wales on the same train this morning.

When they got here, what did they do?

One heads off to Cardiff City Centre to talk to 'ordinary people' before heading off to Barry ('what's occurin Dave?) and the Vale of Glamorgan. The other heads off to look around the
brand spanking new Institute of Life Sciences, part of the School of Medicine at Swansea University. He may have come across 'an ordinary voter' but I didn't spot one myself.

Why? Is there a hint in this quote from a letter that the Labour party locally are distributing in Wrexham?

"All too often local elections become about national politics-what do you think of the Labour Government? However our local problems deserve a true vote on their own merits. We urge those of you planning to vote on polling day not to vote for or against us just because of our central party. "

Don't hold back guys.

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Leaf through today's Western Mail jobs pages and tell me what's the link between the Local Government Data Unit, Cardiff University, University of Glamorgan, Race Equality First, Lloyds Bank, the International Baccalaureate, Caerphilly Borough Council ... I could go on.

The First Minister knows what I'm talking about. He had a good look at the jobs pages this morning. No, he's not tempted to head off before 2009 (not as long as a 2010 General Election is still on the cards anyway) but he was on the look-out for jobs that pay under £18,500. He found plenty.

The Prime Minister may have made moves towards compensating those affected by the scrapping of the 10p tax rate but funnily enough I get the feeling the First Minister isn't convinced those who earn under £18,500 are rushing to forgive him.

So now you've got the link. They're all institutions advertising jobs that pay under £18,500 - in some instances, well under £18,500 for doing the kind of day's work you and I and our famililes would notice if it wasn't being done properly.

I don't have a copy of the Evening Standard in front of me but I'm guessing jobs advertised there generally tend to pay rather more which is why, of course, Wales will be hit disproportinately hard by scrapping the 10p tax band.

The Liberal Democrats are pointing to the195,000 in Wales who are starting rate tax payers and wondering whether the party can hold on to Cardiff, Bridgend, Swansea and Wrexham after all. Shadow Chancellor George Osborne was in town on Tuesday with a ton of expensive leaflets and a message that a quarter of a million people in Wales will be worse off. There are Labour canvassers reporting that the row and even the inelegant U-turn is doing them real damage on the doorsteps.

Yesterday I stood outside M+S in Newport for an hour and talked to as many people as I could who had an opinion on the local elections. Scientific it ain't but mostly, it went a bit like this:

Number one issue? No question - scrapping the 10p tax rate.
"Not that there's anything a Labour council can do about that, surely?"
"No but if you don't tell them locally how fed up you are, nobody listens."

Next?

"Where does all my money go these days? Petrol, electricity, gas ..."
"Not that there's anything a Labour council can do about that, surely?"
"No but they've got to get the message somehow, haven't they? "

"How about Newport - is the regeneration work making a big impact?"
"It'll be nice when it's finished".

So it went on. Granted, there were more older people prepared to stop and talk but then they're the ones most likely to vote come May 1st.

A few weeks ago Labour were talking in terms of keeping control of Newport come what may and taking back control of Bridgend and of Swansea: not loudly maybe and not confidently but there was a deal of optimism. Now the First Minister admits a good morning on May 2nd would be finding they've managed to hang on to what they've got.

Will they? A smidgin of good news for Labour from outside M+S in Newport. If not Labour, then who? My final question to those passers-by keen to register a protest.

Most hadn't thought about it or hadn't made up their minds. Why does that matter? Because it means there was no sign at all of tactical voting, the kind of thoughtful, targetted voting that leads to knock-out blows, rather than slaps on the wrist.

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I'm prepared to bet that Andrew Davies, the Finance and Public Services Delivery Minister, never wears knitted cardigans or turtle neck jumpers.

The man means business and his business is transforming the way public services in Wales are delivered. If you're in his company for more than five minutes, I'll offer a second bet that he'll have uttered the words 'public service delivery' - at least twice.

Now of course his lot have been in charge since 1999 so you may wonder just why in 2008 such a change of culture is needed at all. But this is the change on which Andrew Davies is so very focused: he wants the emphasis to be on you, the citizen and what you want from public services - accessible health care, good education for your children - all those things that he clearly believes have been hampered by the emphasis having been on the service provider.

So who does he blame? Local Government? Not really, though they need to spend less on making more of an impact (especially the non-Labour ones he mentioned this morning, just over a week ahead of polling day, I suppose.)

But more interesting was the direct challenge he issued: "The Civil Service needs to raise its game".

Sir Jon Shortridge, the Permanent Secretary or in civil service terms, the boss, doesn't vacate his seat until May 1st but that didn't stop the Minister from issuing challenges and pointing fingers this morning.

Men like Andrew Davies don't suffer from slips of the tongue very often, which is why another line didn't go unnoticed. "My Rural Affairs Minister ... um ... My colleague the Rural Affairs Minister ... "

A man with more than one mission?

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• - What's this?

It has to be said that the Rural Affairs Minister doesn't look much like an ambitious politician but don't let the knitted cardigans, turtle neck jumpers and extraordinarily sensible shoes deceive you.

Last month Elin Jones told Plaid Cymru's conference that at times, her new job in government had only served to remind her that independence is the way forward for Wales. It came at an unexpected point in her speech, just after a quick run-through of the ingredients of chicken and mushroom pie. But there it was: a Plaid Minister using the 'i' word and meaning it.

Last week she announced the Assembly Government's decision to cull badgers in a targetted area. The Plaid Minister then watched as one Labour backbencher after another voted against the government's line. In fact just one - Alun Davies - voted with the government. Even the stick-of-rock-loyal-through-and-through Jeff Cuthbert abstained.

The Minister shrugged, as if to suggest if that was the worst they could do - bring it on.

Tomorrow she'll be making another announcement, that the Assembly Government wants fisheries powers over all the seas around Wales, bolstering the area for which she'll be responsible from 12 nautical miles around the coast to "the median lines between Wales and Northern Ireland, England, Isle of Man and the Republic of Ireland". In other words she's prepared to meet them half way - literally.

Ok, so it's not quite the 2.5 million square miles down under and no-one's counting on a bonanza thanks to new-found oil and gas reserves somewhere to the North of Cantre'r Gwaelod.

All the same Elin Jones is out to persuade DEFRA to extend the zone where the Assembly Government will have responsibility for fisheries.

Why? "Our decisions on fisheries will have more of an impact" says the Minister and it makes sense as far as the management of fisheries legislation goes.

The aim? "Clarity of control".

First step then: devolving the high seas. The girl has got to start somewhere.

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• - What's this?

Who does the Welsh Labour party want us to focus on in the run-up to these local elections?

Who was their local election party political broadcast all about?

Who, this morning, made the kind of speech that is very hard to ignore?

That'll be Rhodri Morgan, who "weak-minded members of the commentariat" - more about them in a moment - have dubbed the freebie First Minister.

From free prescriptions to free school breakfasts to free car parking in Welsh hospitals, the so-called 'giveaway policies' may have been popular with most but some are sensing an obsession, a free-something-or-other on special offer every time you pull up at the Assembly Government forecourt.

Today came the rebuttal.

This is how the argument goes: that the so-called giveaway policies are a distinctive Welsh approach that other governments - in Scotland and Northern Ireland - are now aping. The freebies are one of many deliberate, calculated measures designed to persuade those surviving on benefits that they won't lose out by going back to work. Giving away is just one of the "many clubs in the bag" this government is using to try and galvanise the labour market and drag the Welsh figures for economic activity upwards, so that they do more than touch the hem of the Scottish statistics.

Now that still doesn't sound to me like a defence of giving free prescriptions to everyone, yes, including those millionaires we trot out at times like this to drive home the point. and it was no surprise either that it seemed to go down well enough at the Welfare to Work conference (with its logo of a pared down red and green rainbow by the way).

So what about these "weak-minded members of the commentariat" who slam the freebies - the curious words that leapt off the page of the pre-released speech and the press release? Commentariat? Who is he talking about?

Well Rhodri Morgan never did utter those words, nor anything like them. He always did tend to wander off script ("looking into people's eyes is far more important") but the sentiment , he insisted afterwards to confused reporters, "was there" even if he didn't stick to the script.

So I'll ask again: who are they? Who has recently criticised the Welsh Assembly Government for concentrating too much on free stuff?

There's the Conservative, Alun Cairns, on free school breakfasts: "It's time to put this expensive, ill-thought-out gimmick to bed".

And there's Liberal Democrat, Jenny Randerson on "free prescriptions for millionaires and parking in hospitals for commuters ... putting headline grabbing gimmicks ahead of patient care".

But hang on, who was it who said more than once that it made no sense to spend NHS money on "subsidising anyone who wants to park in a hospital car park for free"?

And who said that the Welsh Assembly Government should prioritise "sharp" rather than "soft" services, skill and business support rather than free schemes?

It was Ben Bradshaw, and the former Labour Secretary of State, Peter Hain who spelled out his thoughts very clearly .

The First Minister couldn't possibly having been thinking of them - now could he?

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• - What's this?

Off-line today but this blog will be back online tomorrow morning having undergone some "essential maintenance" - the kind of maintenance that will mean I should have no trouble posting and you should have no trouble commenting from now on, as long as you register first.

In the meantime, Liberal Democrat Voice's discovery of a , a woman who clearly needs no maintenance whatsoever, is too good not to share by someone who has Powys as a surname.

Islwyn Davies describes himself as a 44 year old Welsh speaking farmer; Ray Guthrie as a dry stone waller; Tommy Harris a building contractor. Olive Mary Warne is a female, slim build, 5'2" tall.

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• - What's this?

A few weeks ago the Deputy First Minister strode into the lobby briefing clutching a copy of the Independent. The paper had decided it was a good time to be Welsh.

Not surprisingly, Ieuan Wyn Jones agreed. But how many of us read the Independent in Wales?

One sharp eyed observer spotted that if 250,000 really read it as I'd suggested, that would mean 10% of us settling down with the Independent every morning. For him, here's a long overdue correction.

The circulation in the UK is 251,470. But what about Wales?

I rang and asked. No idea came the response. We don't count. Ballpark figure? No, sorry.

But today, on page 73 of I spot the answer. It's 20,800.

And at least I know one of you cares that I've - finally - nailed it.

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• - What's this?

Apologies for the long silence.

Firstly the blog seemed to go into meltdown for a few days, swiftly followed by its author. With a trail of tissues, I'm back and there's good news on the blog's health too which I'll spell out later.

But first: badgers, whose good health or otherwise is of rather more consequence.

Last week the Rural Affairs Minister, Elin Jones, announced the Welsh Assembly Government's decision to carry out in an attempt to control bovine TB. Satisfaction on one side of the funnel that rises from the chamber up into the oriel or the gallery above. That's where I spotted the Countryside Alliance gang sitting, with figures claiming that TB has cost us £53million over the past decade. Directly on the other side of the funnel and the argument, the Badger Trust people had set up shop.

There, you knew all that Canadian maple had its uses.

So with the decision already taken and announced, Assembly Members now get a chance to discuss the issue. In other words the cull's announced, then AMs get to discuss the rights and wrongs of it: to cull or not to cull.

It makes perfect sense according to the Deputy First Minister. AMs must have a right to air their views on issues like this and the fact that the government has already made up its mind makes it easier for them to target their questions and scrutinise the Minister.

In fact the Labour group will get a free vote this afternoon, so will the Liberal Democrats. Plaid and the Conservatives are deciding now in their group meetings whether to follow suit.

All of which means - and badgers and their supporters will already have worked this out - that the government's utterly confident of winning the vote.

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• - What's this?

Theyr'e back - no, not the AMs but the wind-surfing, engine-building, bike-riding, length-swimming, mountain-conquering, grinning montage of Welsh citizens trotted out every time the coalition government wants to sell us something that says 'One Wales Government working for you'.

Their faces appear on glossy back-drops and on the cover of any number of documents stacked up on my neat, post-Easter desk.

So what are they smiling about this morning? Well The One Wales delivery plan is a list of 228 pledges made by the coalition government along with a pretty detailed timetable for delivery.

There's a helpful key too:

PW: Preparatory work
I: Implementation
C: Completed

and then there's the very useful

AD: Activity dependent on outcome of initial stage.

Top of the list, pledge number 1 is the establishing of an All-Wales convention on further powers for the Assembly.
Easy. PW in year one, I in the second, C by the third. Sir Emyr will be pleased. Fortunately "proceeding to a successful outcome of a referendum for full law-making powers" doesn't seem to count as a specific pledge. PW followed by wall to wall ADs wouldn't look quite so good after all.

If you really voted for Plaid because your kids wanted a lap-top then you probably deserve to check out pledge 116. Supporters of a Welsh language newspaper? Hone in on pledge 193. Reducing waiting times to 26 weeks from referral to treatment? That's number 30. Take your pick. That's what holding the government to account is about after all and this check-list - a 'living document' that will change to reflect failures as well as successes we're told - is an open invitation to do just that.

Then again one man's invitation to scrutinise is another's glossy propaganda. Opposition leader Nick Bourne has it down as "an expensive exercise in taxpayer-funded self-justification".

I wondered aloud whether it didn't have just a bit to do with one half of the coalition holding the other half to account, a check-list that'll come in increasingly handy as 2011 looms and the red-green coalition prepares to disengage? Nonsense, says Rhodri Morgan. "This is a two party coalition but it is one administration". I didn't hear the DFM answer that particular question.

By the way this morning's lobby yielded the latest definition of pledge number one, the All-Wales Convention, from the First Minister.

It's an ADM: an "appetite detection machinery".

Read the rest of this entry

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If you've ever been tempted to question the dedication of candidates in local elections, then I hope you'll be pretty impressed with the news that one pamphlet was shoved through our door during the big match that I've promised not to mention again on this blog.

That has got to be the work of someone who really, really wants to win one of the 1260 seats up for grabs in Wales' 22 unitary authorities on May 1st.

A month to go then but only a fortnight for you to contact us on 08703 500700 or on either wales.today@bbc.co.uk or in Welsh on olanilan@bbc.co.uk to tell us what the burning issue is in your area. You're welcome to use this blog too to leave messages and our end of the deal is that we'll tell as many of those stories as possible.

All four main parties face big challenges.

Labour must hang on to what they've got. The Iraq factor won't cause the same damage as it did in 2004 but the Brown factor - his standing in the polls at least - won't be helping. Losing Newport would be unthinkable but I bet you they've thought long and hard in Transport House about the possibility of Newport and more than one other Labour-led council falling to no overall control.

The Liberal Democrats find themselves defending Cardiff, Bridgend, Swansea and Wrexham. The masters of the 'only the Lib Dems can challenge here' bar charts and leaflets will have to play a different game this time round if they're to give Mike German more than a very limp send-off and their new leader any sort of platform.

Plaid Cymru will be out to claw back some of the seats they lost in the valleys in 2004 but must also ride the storm of school closure protests in Gwynedd. Candidates fighting in the name of Llais Gwynedd (who wanted to call themselves Llais y Bobol, or People's Voice - think Blaenau Gwent - until electoral rules prevented them) will be determined to make school closure plans the focus of this election; Plaid will be out to stop them.

And the Conservatives? Local elections might not be their strong suit in Wales but for my money they're facing more of an electoral test than anyone else. They did ok in the Assembly Elections but with David Cameron riding high and a Labour/Plaid coalition to target in Cardiff Bay, surely the faithful will expect rather more than ok come May 1st?

By the way if you're:

a. tempted to stand as a candidate or
b. tempted to read an election leaflet thoroughly

then bear in mind this helpful check-list for candidates which is on the Welsh Local Government Association's website.

"All candidates need to:

Check the currency and validity of facts they may wish to quote

Be clear about the role and powers of their council when making manifesto pledges

Be realistic about the possibilities for change and improvement when making manifesto pledges

Avoid damaging the reputation of the council by making unfounded or sensationalist comments".

You're welcome to print it out and pin it just inside your front door.

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• - What's this?