91Èȱ¬

As everyone in the (and far, far further afield I'm sure) now know I'm heading off to Tenby today. My colleague Vaughan had kindly offered to print me off a list of Internet Cafes in town - very kind - but these next few weeks are about working on that other coalition of compromises and fantastic twists and turns: the family.

Mind you Derek's promising driving rain and there's Monday's visit to Belfast ... Tuesday's cabinet announcement .. not sure I can get through both days without a quick visit to Caffe 25 on the High Street to see what my fellow bloggers make of it.

The Northern Ireland Political Editor rang yesterday. Mark Devenport is heading off to enjoy the rain in Donegal. Ah if only you'd sorted out that passport for the 3 year old LAST month ... He had the good grace to check how to pronounce Ieuan Wyn Jones' name, though curiously, they'd been told up there to expect a woman minister. Was there a plan to extend the Edwina/Ieuan roadshow?

Newsnight: take note. Last week he was Iuan, a couple of months ago he was Iuean. Isn't there a law that says a dozen monkeys with typewriters will eventually type a proper word? On that basis I suppose Newsnight should eventually manage a proper spelling.

Will Rhodri Glyn Thomas make it safely into the cabinet on Tuesday? Becoming a Plaid Cymru politician wasn't a fantastic career move when he made it but now there are real jobs to be had, it sounds as though he's pretty determined to bag a big one. Yes Minister. No Deputy Minister thank you very much. Can he afford that luxury? And will Ieuan Wyn fight to avoid the Culture brief? Wouldn't it work rather well for Labour to have a Plaid Minister defending 'inadequate' language policies?

Everyone seems agreed that Jocelyn Davies is in - if she wants to be. And how about Alun Ffred Jones? Gruff, yes but experienced and realistic about what running things actually means. In the last week Elin Jones seems to have had the word Deputy attached to her name every time it's mentioned and has that other Jones, Helen Mary, really upset her colleagues as much as some would have you believe? I did spot her getting down on her knees in front of the boss just as he was about to get up in the chamber and deliver his acceptance speech last week ... too little too late?

On with the packing.

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Rhodri Morgan will be leaving hospital in a few minutes' time. Good news. That means he won't, after all, be watching events in the chamber from his hospital bed, nor having to cough up the £3 per hour that costs! Nice image though, Mohammad Asghar.

Ieuan Wyn Jones is still on his feet in the chamber talking about a 'new style of engagement', about the 'pursuit of the common good'. His grandson, born during the election campaign was there, as was his mother and a host of family members in between. A whispered "Sbia ar Taid. Fo di'r un yn y dei binc" or "Look at Grandad. He's the one in the pink tie" came from the very full row behind me.

Labour seats in the chamber weren't quite as full, as the new Leader of the Opposition noted.

Lynne Neagle, Ann Jones and Karen Sinclair were absent as was Huw Lewis. Irene James walked into the chamber a few minutes before Ieuan Wyn got to his feet, only to walk out as he was called.

Ann Jones and Lynne Neagle were outside having a cup of tea and say they were 'in committee'. Yes, the committee was suspended so that members could hear the speech if they wanted to. They didn't want to. Huw Lewis was, according to his wife, on government duties in Merthyr and couldn't make it to the Senedd in time. Karen Sinclair was on the phone to the leader of Wrexham Council. No word yet from Irene James but the walk-out, I'm told, was not planned.

Other absentees? From the TEXT OF speech, the Lib Dems.

UPDATE

Irene James did walk out but it wasn't 'a walk out'. She had to attend an USDAW campaign 'Respect for Shopworkers' event. Just to be clear: she is fully committed behind the Labour led government we now have in the assembly, and totally respects the democratic decisions taken by the Labour party.

MORE

A polite but firm Huw Lewis has been in touch. He confirms he was indeed on ministerial duties in Merthyr today and no, he certainly didn't choose to stay away from the chamber.

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Ieuan Wyn Jones' coronation has been shoved around a bit. Plaid wanted 12.30pm. Labour wanted 2pm. It's happening at 1.30. A sign of compromises to come?

Anon - you're right. I haven't written about Rhodri Morgan here, though I have talked at length about him on radio and television. His wife Julie spoke to us before going to see him in hospital this morning and hopes he'll be out if not today, then tomorrow. I hope so too.

On Monday night in Westminster there was a distinct feeling of shock amongst the Welsh MPs who came to the 91Èȱ¬ Wales do. Not because my colleague David Cornock appeared to be taking on (shocking though the thought of the havoc he'd wreak with a sonic screwdriver would be ...) but because they'd all heard the news of Rhodri's illness. Best wishes came first, then the kind of warm praise that implied he 'stood out' in Cardiff Bay. For 'stand out' read 'who the hell is going to take over when he goes?'

Dr Kim Howells claims that it was the First Minister's speech on Friday at Labour's Special Conference that persuaded him he has to live with PR and therefore, live with the red green coalition. He did still manage to call the 'One Wales' agreement a 'dismal document' as he left the CIA mind but maybe the realisation took a while to sink in.

That bit of Cardiff, around the CIA, looks a bit like Damascus according to the Foreign Office Minister. He thought he was in Damascus for a moment while on his way to the conference. Someone seemed to be trailing him. They were walking just a few paces behind him as he walked through the Hayes. He shot a look over his shoulder and thought, for a moment, that the face was familiar. He racked his brains. The man followed him all the way past the building site .. and up the steps of the CIA. "It was that Carwyn ... what's his name?" "Jones?" "Aye that's him".

Just remember that when Rhodri Morgan does eventually stand down and if there is a leadership election and if they use the same system as 1997 and 1999 (how many ifs is that..?) then the maths means the MPs would have more of a say than the AMs.

Someone's got their work cut out.

Back to the present. No-one's quite sure whether the fax has arrived from Buckingham Palace approving Ieuan Wyn Jones' appointment. They'd better hurry up ... his Mum is in the canteen all set to hear the speech.

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The new Prime Minister is off to Stormont next week where he'll attend his first meeting of the British Irish Council, hosted by Northern Ireland's First Minister, Ian Paisley and Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness.

Gordon Brown is expecting to come face to face with Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond, the leaders of administrations in the Isle of Man, Jersey and Guernsey and, of course, the First Minister Rhodri Morgan.

Might he get a chance instead to congratulate Plaid's Ieuan Wyn Jones in person?

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So there we have it.

Plaid's National Council members (minus 18) went home happy on Saturday, especially since a sharp-eyed party man had ripped down a home-made poster stuck to the gate before they all drove past it. Scrawled on it were the words:

Better dead
Than RED
Never vote
PLAID again.

It wasn't as professionally produced as Plaid's election poster - Kick Labour into touch. It made the point though.

But the Plaid party faithful who came to Pontrhydfendigaid didn't really need to see it. They know what the challenge is: to prove that this deal can deliver the kind of change and boost to public services that the electorate wanted; to prove too that Plaid aren't the only losers in four years' time. The Conservatives form the official opposition which is what they'd aimed for from the start and Labour to get another chance to prove to the voters of Wales that they can and do listen. Plaid must make their mark early.

Which brings me to the cabinet. I'm off to London today but if you want to post your well informed guesses/wild stabs in the dark as to who's out and who's in, you're very welcome. Three and a half jobs for Plaid? Yes (ish) we're told but expect some surprises.

Meanwhile the Tories and the Lib Dems are on the move. Literally. The new enlarged Tory group, that I keep spotting walking around the Senedd as if they're on tour, want to 'cluster together'. That's an euphemism for 'hoy Lib Dems we want your offices'. The Lib Dems have decided, wisely, to pick their battles. Jenny Randerson says the cardboard boxes are arriving next week.

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Join us around 4pm on Radio Wales and on Radio Cymru and I'll let you know.

But I'll give you a hint, as if you need one.

700 years ago today to the day, Edward the 1st died.

07/07/1307 and the Hammer of the Scots, who had a pretty good go at the Welsh too, was gone.

07/07/2007 might turn out to be pretty historic too.

And by the way if Adam Price turned out to be the most quoted man in the CIA yesterday, guess who tops the list here?

I'm told it's Don Touhig.

Touche.

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I'll have to do this quickly so here goes: first, the statistics:

OVERALL VOTE
In favour: 78.43%
Against: 21.57%

UNIONS
In favour: 95.83%
Against: 4.17%

PARTY GROUPS
In favour: 61.02%
Against: 38.98%

We weren't allowed anywhere near the conference hall of course, penned in 'a bit like Shambo' as one of my colleagues put it. So the rest comes courtesy of an avid note-taker and thankfully, note-sharer.

Most common phrases heard?

Clear winner: "We will rue the day ..." followed by "a bitter pill to swallow BUT ..."
Coming in third? "I'm an internationalist, not a nationalist".

Who was the most quoted MP? Runner up, Wayne David but well in the lead ... Adam Price MP.

Who compared support for this agreement to "a rope that supports a hanged man"? That was Lord Kinnock. Yes, he was allowed to speak but was called up third, well before the conference had got going and too early to inflict real damage. "I haven't even asked to speak yet!" he protested but he couldn't very well say no. Tactics.

Peter Hain left the delegates in no doubt that the bits they don't like in the 'One Wales' agreement won't happen anyway. Well ok, he didn't qute put it like that but delegates left the CIA clearly convinced that there willl not be a referendum for a very long time, not before and certainly not on the date of the next Assembly election.

As Nick Ainger MP put it, the wording on the referendum in the document is "helpfully ambiguous".

Newsnight have just asked whether this coalition is sustainable? Yes, it is but the real pressure comes when the talking stops and the doing starts, when an agreement that spells out no priorities has to be made to work.

Another MP quotes Nye Bevan: socialism is about priorites. What happens when there's only enough money in the pot to support either the valleys or rural areas he asks? Who gets the money? Then we'll see how this is going to work.

Off to Pontrhydfendigaid tomorrow where they may well be asking the same question - in reverse.

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Just for a moment I foollishly thought that today's Special Conference in the CIA had made the national news. 'CARDIFF Rod's Gig' said the piece of news copy that made it into the Wales copy folder.

And it felt about right. This is, after all, Rod's gig. The tingle remains but as the First Minister told Radio Wales this morning, 'we should be all right'. We all know he'd like the vote to be rather better than 'all right' though. The rebels might already be talking about 'moving forward in unison' when today's decision is made but the degree of support the First Minister gets today will matter.

I have the distinct feeling the CLPs will see him 'more than all right'.

Except it wasn't about that Rod of course. The story was about the legendary Scottish Rod "with the gravelly, raspy voice" Stewart who'll give his fans a last chance to see him playing a large venue when he appears at the Millennium Stadium tomorrow night. Silly me. I'm cheered by the fact that the Six o'clock and Ten o'clock news programmes have asked for pieces from Cardiff tonight and thankfully they're talking about the right Rod at least.

A quick visit to the CIA this lunchtime reveals what's on stage there this month.

"Heaven and Hell Live 2007", "The War of the Worlds" - back by popular demand and the fabulous Four Tops and the Temptations. No mention of today's one-off Grassroots Live.

If I can escape the 'press and media pen' then my laptop and I will try to post again later.

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To a Bevan Foundation Question and Answer session last night with Leanne Wood, David Melding, Huw Lewis and Peter Black - or as one of them might put it, a debate in the palace of politics that's of interest only to anoraks.

Guess which one?

You got it.

Huw Lewis was on fine and fighting form. Perhaps he'd just been casting an eye over his wife's for this morning's Western Mail. Perhaps it was a feeling that Friday's battle is lost. Perhaps it was seeing all those cream cakes go to waste. Whatever galvanised him, he was in the mood to lob a few stones at the palace windows, especially the one just behind Leanne Wood's head.

On the promise of a review of the Barnett formula (cf One Wales document, p.6): 'We ought to question the motivation and the politics of those calling for a review of Barnett'.

On the past few weeks: 'In coalition talks it's only the party leaders that really matter'.

And as for 'One Wales', don't get him started. As Leanne Wood spoke optimistically about what it could deliver, Huw Lewis slipped a note to Peter Black. He half grimaced, half chuckled before folding the paper firmly over.

Huw's final thoughts drew a cheer that seemed to come from the direction of Ann Jones and Karen Sinclair. It went something like this:

'It's very easy to persuade yourself that this is a new era, just because a voting system is different, just because parties have to discuss coalitions. But the essentials are the same. Go back to your Marx. It's about 'who gets what and says who'. There's no escaping that politics is about a discourse of left and right. Ordering where politicans sit is fascinating but reordering people's lives is what it's about.'

Ann Jones left announcing she'll be wearing black on Friday.

More please Bevan Foundation.

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Menzies Campbell has had his reshuffle.

Lembit Opik becomes the Lib Dem spokesman for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform.

New man for Wales: Roger Williams.

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So neurosurgery in Swansea lives to fight another day. Shambo doesn't.

On the latter Jane Davidson has decided that "In the light of the veterinary, medical and legal assessments, I am minded to conclude that they should not, and that the normal policy for controlling bovine TB should be upheld in this case."

Mick Bates beat the First Minister to it by revealing Shambo's demise in his question - jumping the gun you might say. Sorry Shambo but at least there's one story we can put to bed.

On the future of neurosurgery in Swansea Edwina Hart will make a statement tomorrow but expect news along the lines of neurosurgery centres both in Cardiff and Morriston Hospital Swansea somehow remaining open.

As someone said yesterday 'They're going to have to close hospitals sooner or later".

Not this bit, not now.

An interesting salvo from Andy Richards, the leader of the T & G Wales section of Unite (the merged Amicus and TGWU) He's accused Labour MPs of interfering with the party's "democratic constitutional processes" over the attempts to build a red/green coalition.

Mr Richards says he's "aware of activities within sections of the parliamentary group ... which are singularly unhelpful at this time". Devolving powers to the Assembly, he says, will "inevitably mean a reduction in the number of Welsh MPs but if that is the will of the nation then self-interest must give way to democracy. MPs cannot preach on the one hand to workers, such as those at TRW, Visteon and elsewhere, that they must accept reductions in jobs for the good of the company and then expect us to support a 'stay as we are' attitude in parliament."

Good Evening Wales are already hunting for a response.

By the way at this morning's briefings Jane Hutt said she expected the meeting between the group of MPs - who were Don Touhig, Nia Griffith, Ian Lucas and Nick Ainger - and the executive of Labour'r group of AMs to be 'lively' and a vehicle for discussion. A huge 4x4 complete with bull-bar came to mind.

And as for Plaid Cymru - if Rhodri has a tingle, what does Ieuan Wyn Jones have? He thought for a moment or two. "A quiet confidence". Does that count as a twinkle?

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Things can get heated on the election trail (as Labour party press officers know full well).

Now one of the Transport House gang is heading off to Sierra Leone for a week ahead of their election, to give politicians a few tips on how to handle the media.

What should he tell them? Best suggestion I've heard today is "If you find that after 9 weeks you still have no proper government in place ... don't panic".

By the way the Liberal Democrat National Executive meets on Saturday. Will the timetable for the leadership election be on the agenda? Or will they feel they have enough to talk about ... just for now?

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Increased security outside 91Èȱ¬ Wales this morning, as news programmes grapple with striking the right balance between telling the story of the current terrorist threat and telling it from a Welsh point of view. Rhodri Morgan is giving interviews later this morning on the latest security measures being put in place here.

Meanwhile our eyes are on Friday, Saturday and how every day in between now influences both votes - let alone Rhodri's tingle. News trickles in on how CLPs - Constituency Labour Parties - have voted. Tamsin Dunwoody on Good Morning Wales makes clear she was against 'One Wales' but that the local party in Preseli Pembrokeshire have backed it overwhelmingly. Labour Grassroots are backing it and campaigning for it. I wonder how Ieuan Wyn Jones' tingle is doing?

He may have spotted an interesting story in yesterday. While Welsh Labour MPs vent their fury on a deal that includes looking afresh at the Barnett Formula - the funding settlement that decides how much money we get in Wales and Scotland - is Gordon Brown really about to go ahead and sound its death knell anyway?

Do we, for 'fairer system of distributing billions in central government support to the nations and regions of the UK' read 'look Middle England, I can be tough on Scotland (and Wales?)' when needs be?

Gordon rules. Off to talk to programmes about what you'd do If You Ruled Wales.

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Rhodri Morgan has just been doing the Politics Show and Maniffesto round.

Will he have to rely on the unions to shove his party towards 'One Wales' on Friday? No, says the First Minister, who calculates - and must be desperately hoping - that the constituencies will vote 50:50 for and against at the very least. He needs them on side. The irony of this First Minister relying on union muscle is pretty clear.

Torfaen and Caerphilly CLPs have already voted against, as have Islwyn. No surprises there. Other constituencies will vote positively, quietly. Other fascinating results will come in from CLPs where the AM is for and the MP against. May be best man win.

Meanwhile Labour MPs haven't given up on the hope of a meeting with AMs. So far the First Minister has only agreed to a meeting of the officers - Wayne David, Mark Tami and Julie Morgan. Has that appeased seething MPs? (Try saying that after a late night)? No.

So how are the First Minister's nerves? He admits to a certain 'tingle'.

What if the vote goes against next Friday? Rhodri Morgan wasn't playing. But he did say one thing clearly enough: in his view, a minority Labour government wouldn't survive the Summer recess.

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