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Could Redcar reject Labour in steel rebellion?

Richard Moss | 14:14 UK time, Friday, 5 March 2010

Redcar steelworkers protesting at job lossesFrom the Foreign Office, to filming on a freezing football pitch in Redcar - it's been a varied week to say the least.

But there is a connection.

For Labour to keep its hold on the great offices of state they'll have to convince the kind of voters I encountered in Redcar to stick with them.

And that was why I rolled up at the local football team's training night.

I hasten to add I kicked no balls myself - the last time I did that I ended up with a sprained ankle.

But I was there to see what members made of Labour following the mothballing of the town's steelworks.

It's a team that has included plenty of steelworkers in the past, and while talking to the squad I encountered a former apprentice, as well as people with relatives and friends who work there.

And many are now reconsidering their support for Labour. (You can see what they said on the this Sunday).

Several said they'd made up their minds to vote for someone else; others were considering switching for the first time.

Their opinions should worry Labour, but how concerned should they be?

Vera Baird MP has a majority of 12,000, and Labour has held the seat since it was created in its current form 35 years ago.

But the Liberal Democrats - - believe they can pose a threat.

The party has won three recent council by-elections in the constituency and now has the same number of councillors as Labour.

, and with , and the BNP almost certain to, there will be a choice for disillusioned Labour supporters.

But there may be too many alternatives to actually threaten Labour, especially as some former supporters may decide not to vote at all.

So any protest vote is likely to be divided, even if it's probably the Lib Dems that have the most realistic ambitions.

Only one thing might change that - the emergence of a credible single-issue Save Our Steel candidate.

And Labour figures in the constituency do seem a little jumpy about that prospect.

, there's no sign of it happening yet.

That may change, but until it does I suspect Labour may feel they can see off any steel-related rebellion in Redcar.

Of course that doesn't mean the mothballing of Corus won't influence contests elsewhere in Teesside.

and are Tory targets with smaller Labour majorities and plenty of people who may be affected by the steelworks redundancies.

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