Will Lib Dem 'aspirations' be realised in Durham and Newcastle?
It seems I've managed to upset some Conservatives by suggesting they are unlikely to win seats in the City of Durham or Newcastle.
I was probably too sweeping in my dismissal of their chances - memo to self, never make yourself a hostage to fortune - so probably best if we deal in facts.
, in 2005, the Tories got 9% of the votes in Durham, 15% in Newcastle North and 13% in Newcastle East.
That doesn't mean they're not capable of performing much better this time, but I'm guessing those figures wouldn't persuade you to risk your house on their victory.
But would you also bet your mortgage on either Labour or the Lib Dems in those seats?
Take the Lib Dems - the closest challengers to Labour in all three.
They undeniably made progress in those areas in 2005, but what will people make of the party now they've downgraded some eyecatching policy pledges into aspirations? (ie they won't be happening any time soon).
.
And perhaps most importantly for our part of the world, . Instead it'll be phased in over six years.
.
And you can see why they'll want to retain that student vote.
In the City of Durham, Labour has a majority of just over 3,000, but there are 11,000 students.
Even if some of them stay in bed watching Countdown on election day, there could still be enough voting to affect the outcome.
During filming this week, .
To be fair, they are the only one of the big three still commited to scrapping fees at some point - Labour and the Tories support them.
But in such a tight constituency, every vote lost could make a difference.
And both Labour and the Conservatives also believe the party's gloss is wearing off with others too.
The Lib Dems were still the fresh political force in Newcastle in 2005, after winning control of the city council just 12 months earlier.
They still run the council, but five years on, any honeymoon period is long over.
And now both Labour and Tory candidates say they are seeing evidence of disillusionment on the doorstep.
They would say that wouldn't they, might be the Lib Dem response.
But of course they have had other little local difficulties - the resignation of Greg Stone as their Newcastle East candidate for one.
So how will they sell their new model party?
We'll be talking to Greg Stone's likely successor as Newcastle East's Lib Dem candidate - local councillor Wendy Taylor - on this Sunday.
I'm Richard Moss, the 91Èȱ¬'s Political Editor for the North East and Cumbria. Welcome to my irreverent - but hopefully insightful - northern take on reporting politics for Look North and the Politics Show.
Comments
or to comment.