How big?
Attempts will be made to talk up and talk down the Tories' victory tonight. You can judge for yourself with this handy guide to previous by-election swings.
The Tories will say that this is the biggest swing from Labour to the Tories in more than 30 years and in line with the swings that were followed by Ted Heath and Margaret Thatcher becoming prime minister:
Lab to Con by election swings
- Warwick and Leamington 1968 - 18.2%
- Brighton Pavillion 1969 - 17.9%
- Ashfield - 1977 - 20.8%
- Walsall North - 1976 - 17.3%
In Ilford North 1978, the last by-election gain from Labour to the Tories, the swing was 7%.
The opposition parties wll, on the other hand, point out that they've had much bigger swings in by-elections:
Con to Lib Dem by election swings
- Christchurch 1993 - 35%
- Newbury 1993 - 28%
- Ribble Valley 1991 - 25%
Con to Lab by election swings
- Dudley West 94 - 29%
- SE Staffs - 96 - 22%
- Mid Staffs 89 - 21%
Comment number 1.
At 23rd May 2008, Charles_E_Hardwidge wrote:Anyone who listens to numbers is merely a technician. They have no political nose at all and are the walking dead. As we write the numbers are becoming history and action is creating a new future. Better just to shrug and live life as it is.
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Comment number 2.
At 23rd May 2008, LKnight wrote:Where are you Nick? Where are you? I'm up watching 91Èȱ¬ 2 and I can see you blogging, but you aren't on television!
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Comment number 3.
At 23rd May 2008, mullerman wrote:A protest vote helped by negative news covergae of the government by the media.
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Comment number 4.
At 23rd May 2008, mutleyspup wrote:No 3:
In your dreams!
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Comment number 5.
At 23rd May 2008, jbburnham wrote:I don't know why everybody is acting so suprised? Gordon Brown simply isnt listening to the country. It annoys me how David Cameron is going to win a general election without hardly opening his mouth, but people would probably vote in a chicken now if it meant getting rid of Gordon.
This point is demonstrated perfectly in the Labour Party's response to the Crewe defeat. "We believe its people telling us they are feeling the pinch." An unbelievable way to patronise the electorate!! Stop patronising - Start listening - but if they want to have a chance of winning the General Election - Ditch the unelected PM.
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Comment number 6.
At 23rd May 2008, rileyman22 wrote:The fact that many labour MP's still back Gordon Brown shows clearly that it is time for a change in government, if they got rid of him,i would still vote labour, if they don't then david cameron it is
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Comment number 7.
At 23rd May 2008, The Brent-Meister-General wrote:It should be simple for Labour, some of their MPs have grasped it but others haven't- with Gordon Brown as leader, Labour will be slaughtered at the next general election (May 2010 we'll assume)
The only issue for Labour should be who? There will be a lot of pressure for the likes of David Miliband and Ed Balls to run for party leader but they may feel that the party is doomed to defeat in 2010 anyway so why tarnish their name?
Well, there is one reason. Because the country's needs come above those of a career politician. I just hope that someone has the 'Ed' to step up and challenge Gordon if the situation arises, instead of paddling along to the next election with no improvement and no way of stopping the butchery that the general election currently looks like it will be...
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Comment number 8.
At 23rd May 2008, daylightsaving wrote:"Opposition parties", Nick? Labour isn't one of them - yet!!!
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Comment number 9.
At 23rd May 2008, Andrew Davies wrote:the only way I believe Labour has any chance of recovery to win the next election is for Brown to resign in the next month or two, tobe replaced by someone who has not played any part atall during the Blair/Brown era so that he or she can honestly admit to the electorate - yes we had made these almighty errors and and can say hand on heart - and I played no part in any of these decisions. Brown just does not have the right image and governments and individual politiicans in democracies now (rightly or wrongly) largely stand or fall based on the image - the problem has been it is difficult to present an acceptable image of someone like Brown who is not a natural front man without people seeing through the obvious spin.
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Comment number 10.
At 23rd May 2008, Veeder wrote:So, in summary, what Nick is trying to tell us is that the Tories are rubbish as usual.
Change the record please.
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