Embracing the dragon
Gordon Brown is cross. Very cross. Accusations of dithering hurt at any time but this week's jibe that he deserves the gold medal for dithering didn't just hurt, it infuriated the prime minister. Not simply because it was not true that he'd dithered about whether to go to the Olympics but also because he has been clear and consistent about the need to engage positively with China however distasteful some may find it and whatever the political cost.
That cost was captured in a single image - of the men in blue tracksuits, who Lord Coe has dubbed Chinese thugs, muscling their way up Downing Street as the tenant of No 10 looked on trapped, or so it seemed, between a desire not to be too closely associated with what was happening and his inability to pull out altogether.
His plight is explained, or so conventional wisdom has it, by the fact that Britain, as the next host of the Olympics, must cosy up to the Chinese. Also, by the desire of a canny ex-chancellor to tap in to China's huge wealth at a time when money is tight. There is something in both these explanations but there is another just as significant and much less familiar.
Brown believes that China must be coaxed into becoming an active member of what he calls "the global society". In other words, he believes that Chinese involvement is needed to solve many of the world's most pressing problems -whether climate change or Darfur. What's more, he fears that Communist hardliners will be strengthened if the Olympics lead to China losing face rather than seeing the benefits of opening up to the world.
This has been re-inforced by the bond that has been formed between the prime minister and his opposite number - Premier Wen. Brown and Wen are similar characters - both are praised for their seriousness and derided for their lack of charisma. The two men appeared together recently at what was dubbed Communist China's first ever town hall meeting. Those of us who attended mocked the stage-managed questions from hand-picked party loyalists. Gordon Brown rebuked us for missing the point - a Communist apparatchik was taking the risk of opening himself to questioning without relying on a script. Wen was putting a small toe into democratic waters.
Team Brown insists that this relationship has not come at the expense of putting pressure on the Chinese over human rights or Darfur or Burma. Indeed, they point to a series of small positive steps taken by the Chinese after Brown's visit. As for Tibet they point out that Brown is to meet the Dalai Lama and has called for a dialogue with Tibet's spiritual leader whilst avoiding the furious row provoked by Germany's Angela Merkl when she did the same but without first informing Beijing.
Treading carefully around Chinese sensibilities may play well in Beijing but it plays much less well at home. Ensuring that the Chinese don't lose face has led Gordon Brown to lose it instead. He knows this but has never dithered over what he believes is not just in Britain's but in the wider world's interests - the need to embrace the dragon.
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Comments
That's a very interesting comment, Nick. I don't share the Prime Minister's strength of view on politically incorrect regimes nor do I stretch as far as the gesture politics of the protestors. I was hoping the Prime Minister would visit Beijing and that the scuffles during the Olympic torch carrying wouldn't happen but things didn't work out that way. That's rather a shame as we could do with a more relaxed and agreeable political climate.
People may complain of the so-called Great Firewall of China but in Britain companies like Virgin Media will be installing equipment that snoops on everything their customers do. As some people gnash teeth and wag fingers at China, what of the cartels and greed that beats down and cheats people on our own soil? Perhaps China takes national harmony too far but what of the terror private companies rein down on our heads?
As there's a gap between West and East, so there's a gap between leadership and public, left and right, public and private. People have become too scattered and unhappy. Misunderstanding and bad feeling, confusion and propaganda. It's all a bit wearing. If people could shut their mouths and stop wagging their fingers, perhaps, we might have enough peace and quiet to generate some positive consensus at home and abroad.
This is a very sympathetic response to GB's position.
There are ways of engaging which do not pander to the outmoded sensibilities of a country which is riddled with corruption and backward looking leaders.
GB seems to be lacking a moral compass on all this. His time in office is looking like being very brief. He would be better regarded internationally and domestically if he actually stood up and was counted.
His current position seems to have not moral or political strength. Weakness in the face of the dragon will only lead to being eaten.
Just read Polly Toynbee's latest column and she is in despair with this PM. If he's lost her ...
Mr. Brown's not attending the opening ceremony will be only working for internal politics.
Whether it is helpful to the British interest overall is yet to know.
The same applies to Mr. Wen. It is impossible for Mr. Wen to change his stand simply because Mr. Brown's decision. A slap on Mr. Wen's face will only turn him away from Mr. Brown.
It is not rocket science. It is simple common sense.
Nick, this blog is so much stronger when you give us your own personal insight into issues or the background to them. This post is not one of those.....it looks like you have simply transcribed a lengthy briefing from No 10. If Brown has a problem with the way he is perceived let him explain himself openly, please don't use licence-payers time and money doing the job for him.
Excellent comment - made me think again. Thanks, Nick!
It's not about dithering or embracing some dragon. It's plain wrong, disrespectful and silly that citizens running round the globe with an Olympic torch, a tradition relating to a sporting event should need such a level of protection in the UK or anywhere else. I think it's shameful that the Olympic games are being used as a tool to crank up as much trouble for those concerned as possible. That's not the way to promote human rights or human resource, if you ask me.
Every state has it's Tibet. Look at Northen Ireland, Sinn fein politicians not allowed to be interviewd even though some are elected members of Parliament. MP's from Northen Ireland and others banned from the mainland, not by judge or jury but by government. The only part of the UK where water cannon, live rounds, hard plastic bullets and tear gas are used by a biased police force, backed up by the military. Yes this was some time ago, but the main thing that helped solve this problem was a lack of interference from outside.
Let's hope ditherer Gordon exits faster than Flash and is gone within 40 days. May local election results to be seen.
As an unelected Prime Minister who scared of calling a general election, it is no surprise that Brown feels great affinity with the Chinese regime.
As for Brown being praised for his 'seriousness', it is now obvious to everyone that he is an overrated, hollow man who has, in the past decade, neglected the fine economy he inherited in 1997.
Oh yes, before I forget: he definitely is a ditherer.
This is a very thoughtful point of view and actually makes a lot of sense. The trouble is, in today's world, everyone wants quick fixes and tend to ride rough shod over the sensitivities of other nations and peoples because 'they know best'. It's arrogant and self seeking. That's why there is so much conflict around and I'm not just talking War Zones but right down to neighbours, within families and between religions.
Tolerance has been lost and the old saying 'softly, softly catch thee monkey' usually works better than hitting someone with a stick! Trouble is it takes patience and persuasion and a lot of courage.
The people of China could suffer more if the Olympics fail and the protests cause the hardliners to withdraw the Country once more back behind the 'Asian Curtain'.
Right now, think about it, is OUR way of life so great that we really want to inflict it on others? Maybe there is a middle road that can be found. Stick to your guns Mr Brown - it's not always the hare who wins the race!
On this, Gordon Brown is right. We have to be culturally-sensitive here. Try to understand the genuine shock in China at the treatment of the Olympic torch-carriers in London and Paris. Protests the Chinese will accept - physical attacks on the torch and its bearers they do not. It is deeply insulting. Try running a country of three billion very diverse people and you'd understand the need to be cautious and careful.
All that makes perfect sense and if he said it in straight forward simple language he would be understood and supported
The inevitable consequence of a game of global trade is that those folks who dreamt up the game in the first place (the Chinese) are most likely to be the ultimate winners.
Since Brits commanded the oceans Brits thought they had sussed it; we have not. Low price rules in a world where money is God.
In a game of global trade cost price is King; lowest price for kind is majestic.
Children in Britain will die again in their thousands because our so-called leaders could not see what is coming.
Regards and adios from a beach in New Zealand!
I wonder whether the "blue thugs" were licensed by the Security Industry Authority and whether letting a group of sia unregistered foreign nationals do a protection job on the flame was legal? I guess anyone they manhandled and was subsequently arrested has grounds for getting their case dismissed?
The problem for Gordon Brown is the same as for John Major, people where glad there predecessors have gone but found the manner it was achieved as distasteful, so the the person who is seen as bringing it about is not altogether trusted. Any decision is looked at in a negative light. Gordon Brown did not take all those leaders of industry to China to pull the rug from under them within weeks of getting back. Or would He?
If Nick's views are correct then Brown has swiftly forgotten the dangers of cosying up to a superpower so as to 'influence' its decisions. As proven by the Blair/Bush relationship Britain will exert no influence and end up being used and abused to suit the superpowers ends.
Another naive stumble by our inept PM into foreign affairs - he is a danger to this country and the sooner he departs the better.
I think that's an insignful piece of work Nick. There's absolutely no point in forcing the Chinese into a corner. If Nixon could understand this in 1972 then I find it inconceivable that Brown, Sarkozy and Merkl can't see it today, and instead plan on boycotting the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games as a spiteful act intended to play to a particular gallery - and based largely on an uninformed view of Tibet. In point of fact, a 91Èȱ¬2 documentary on Saturday 12th April showed that prior to the Dalai Lama leaving for India, Tibet was a highly religious and disciplinarian society, with high levels of poverty amongst the working class and an aristocratic form of government in the control of a large band of families; people wore real animal fur too. So even before Tibet was subject to direct control by China there was something to complain about by everyone and anyone. But Brown et al have decided to kow-tow to the protestors. Great. Somehow, in a society that places great value on the issue of saving "face" I don't think the Chinese will totally appreciate that Brown has to do certain things to keep the mob at bay. Playing to a gallery is one thing; thinking that Chinese society will totally understand why is something else, especially when they think the position is based on ignorance. The UK has (or at least had)a particularly high level of respect in China. Losing it completely could be catastrophic.
For the first time in a long while I feel this article gets beyond the rather trite gibes and accusations thrown at GB. Whether we will see any more of this I dont know. I fear we are now into group think about the PM right up until he gets chucked out at the next election.
The other thing I was struck by today was how much mugabe sounded like either vince cable or david cameron. There is no sense of proportionality around brown or this government any more. We will whip ourselves into a frenzy until we chuck em out, get the next lot and then wonder why nothing changes.
Have I got this right? GB is annoyed that we didn't understand something he as usual didn't explain very well (if he indeed tried at all, its so difficult to tell what he means most of the time).
If so then he is going to be annoyed about many things and for much of the time, but then again I find I hardly notice or care very much. There's not much I would agree with Mugabe about but he had GB summed up well enough.
The Chinese need to grow up If they are going to be a superpower, they will get critiscm. But at present it is justified. They should become democratic and stop abusing other nations. But if China does not want to be insulted then it should go back to be being a backwater. It cannot avoid critics if it becomes a superpower. Just as the USA and the British Empire took a brunt of critiscm, as superpowers.
Does Brown really think he can control the Chinese by asking them really nicely to behave in a certain way? China, like every other nation, acts out of self-interest and they are not really concerned about anything other than becoming the largest economy in the world right now.
I heard your item this morning and found it very good. Then Hazel Blears that no one looses with the abolishion of the 10p tax - well we do. We have no children, we are not old and we are on a low wage. We have always voted labour, always, but not now their actions over recent years say more about the party than any retoric
Mmmm. Interestingly, I hear the Darling has gone to Beijing to drum up some more commercial contracts. What a joke. The policy seems to be: embarrass the Chinese when it comes to the Olympics but don't let it go so far as to get in the way of business, and thus continue to "embrace the dragon". Joined-up thinking? Hardly. Having your cake and eating it? Yes. The old familiar double-speak? Absolutely.
Nick
Brown could have done all you said and still have made it clear in advance that he wasn't going to the opening ceremony. He dithered alright.
Nick,
this is all very kindly and supportive.
If your analysis above is right then Brown places diplomacy, money and engagement as equal priorities.
Where's the evidence that being friendly is necessary for London 2012?
Where's the evidence of added Chinese investment?
You make a pretty good job of selling the engagement argument, but is that really your role?
Gordon is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. How many bloggers check the label on the clothes and shoes they buy. "Made in China" used to mean Taiwan now it means "Made by the Evil Empire". There are many things wrong with the way China goes about its business, but shouting at them is not the way to communicate with people who don't speak English.
So the economy is in a very poor state, 3.5 million unemployed, we have the highest national debt in all the EU countries (58% of GDP), interest rates at 15%, inflation at 12%, 92,000 house repossessions in one year, old age pensioners being found frozen to death because they couldn't afford heating, patients dying of heart attacks because one has to wait for 2 years for a by-pass, 2 years for a cataract operation, 3 years for a hip replacement, hospitals closing in their hundreds. Hang on a minute Nick! Am I correct in saying that all this happened in 1992, when Cameron was the financial advisor to Lamont? Between 1979 and 1992 we already had 2 previous recessions in UK. Incidentally, is there anyone out there to mention just one EU country that house prices are not actually going down and does not have a big problem with inflation because of high fuel, and food costs? The problems are GLOBAL! Anyone not mentioning the rest of the world is trying to impress and gain political advantage!
Of course Britain needs to embrace the dragon, as you put it, for economic reasons. China is an economic powerhouse and will become even more of one over the next decades.
But because of the 2012 Olympics? Well our government were the ones who were stupid enough to want the things. Most of us knew they'd be financially and logistically ruinous. Cosying up to the less acceptable face of China is just a consequence of that decision. Any chance we can still pull out of 2012 and let someone else have them?
Nick
You sound like a busted flush.
Your devoted support of brown in your first paragraph may be a necessary requirement to keep in with those that feed you information, but it betrays the public who look to you for independant reporting.
Brown is a ditherer, he is not clear so is not consistent.
Shame on you.