A day is a long time in politics
You could forgive the prime minister for feeling a little down after a day like today. He's always known that two issues had the power to scar his last months in office - loans and Iraq. Tonight both loom large.
His friends say bitterly that he'll probably only learn what the police have in store for him from leaks to the media. After his aides and his Cabinet, Tony Blair surely knows that he'll be next to help the police with their enquiries.
Neither he nor his allies have been charged with anything - let alone found guilty. They are furious that he faces the court of public opinion without being able to make his defence. Yet they know that the merest hint of a prosecution would be politically deadly.
Some ministers hope that the police's spraying of letters around the Cabinet table suggests they're on a fishing trip for evidence they need and have yet to find. There is an alternative, less reassuring explanation. It is that Yates of the Yard - the policeman in charge of the investigation - is haunted by the failure of another high profile case he once led. The Burrell trial collapsed when the Palace changed its evidence at the last minute. Today's letters may be designed to ensure that no-one can spring a similar surprise on Yates again.
As for Iraq, the prime minister now finds himself having to second guess not just George Bush and his new defence secretary, not just the Baker Commission into Iraq but also a newly assertive Congress. It maybe that he will succeed in making Britain's voice heard in the re-shaping of strategy on Iraq. On the other hand he may struggle to be heard. In that case Britain could face the nightmare, one of his Cabinet colleagues suggested to me, of being the last left insisting that there's no need to change course in Iraq.
Meantime, some in the Labour Party will be wondering whether they could face the same fate as the Republicans in elections next May if their leader's still in Downing Street. Tony Blair has promised to leave soon after but for some that simply won't be soon enough.
A few weeks ago a close colleague of the prime minister's told me that 7 November would prove to be one of the the most important dates in the British political calender. I'm beginning to work out what he meant.
I'm 
Comments
I feel very uneasy that in this report and in your report broadcast on the 91Èȱ¬ 6 o'clock news tonight the whole of your focus on the police investigation was on the government and Tony Blair in particular. You did not once mention that many Tories including Michael Howard and Lib Dem MPs has been questioned about this. For the sake of clarity and perspective I feel strongly that these facts should be mentioned.
Nick,
As a fan of the West Wing, I'm sure you'll remember Toby's words to C.J. during a congressional hearing in the last series - the target of the investigation is always the last he receive the summons.
I'm sick of hearing politicians crying out that we need to "change course" in Iraq without offering any other possibility. The whole war was a huge mistake, but simply pulling out our troops would make an even greater disaster. We would get an initial bloodbath civil war and then, most likely, a puppet Iranian regime. It would also give renewed vigour to the Taliban in Afghanistan to win there too. These politicians are trying to win plaudits by attacking unpopular figures, but are afraid to stick their neck out and say what "changing course" actually entails. I think its high time someone should make the case for partition myself...
Once again we have loads of unattributable comments which are added up to produce an image that the PM is in deep trouble.....
I am far from convinced that your analysis is accurate or unbiased
I doubt if the PM will be too concerned. Those invited to comment have had more than enough time to get together and ensure they all tell the same story. Given the known veracity of the current administration, Mr Blair will come out totally unscathed and leave office as others have recently done "with his integrity intact"!!
With apologies to the Rev Charles Dodgson
Twas Brillig and the slithy Blair
Did Fume and mither in His wake
All murky were the borrowings
Outgrabed by Mr Yates
Beware the jabbering my son,
The laws that bite, the polls that rate
Beware the final word
From a furious electorate
He took Iraqis sword in hand.
Long time the WMD’s he sought
Then arrested by reality,
He stood awhile distraught
And as in offish thought he stood,
The Commissioner with eyes aflame
Asked questions if the honours could
Be linked to loans of shame
One, Two! One, Two! The democrats slew
Republicans by the sack,
They left them dead and Tony now
Finds he has no way back.
And hast though stopped the Jabbering?
And stayed the force of arms
No? Oh what a day
Of exposure and alarms!
Tis Brillig that the slithy Blair
Is hoist in his own petard
Of folly and Incompetence
And deceit which will hit him hard
It took you that long?
Hopefully Blair will now become an increasing embarrassment to the US administration and they'll put pressure on him to keep further discomfort to a minimum. I'll be surprised if we get too much of the moral high ground on Iraq from our Tone in the future. Thank you, America, for finally seeing the light.
Anyone can allege that any politician - or you and I for that matter - has committed an offence. The police are required by law to follow up that allegation with some kind of enquiry or questioning of the accused. Of course the allegation can be unfounded and possibly malicious, so will not be pursued.
However in this case it is merely the fact that senior Labour politicians have been questioned by the police that will achieve the desired effect of smearing the Government with the stain of illegal activities.
Isn't this a case of Chickens coming home to roost?
Anybody who watched the 91Èȱ¬'s House of Cards trilogy can see where this is going.
I think that when blair goes I will feel the same way in reality as I did when the fictitional Francis Erquheot went.
The only thing that I cannot answer is: If blair went the same way, would I be sorry? - Because under blairs' laws I could be arrested, just not necessarily charged for a long time.
Mr. Blair is no different to any potential suspect. The police undertaking an investigation are under no obligation to say what they are doing and or why. It happens everyday. They do not want a potential witness being got at even in the most innocent manner.
Whether their enquires lead to anything and or whether the evidence collated is useful or admissible is a different matter IF and when a prosecution is considered.
So Nick, why did you try and down play this story back in March? No hint of an apology to those who said you had it wrong?
Another case of been too close to politicians and not objective enough.
After reading Nick’s analysis and the comments of everyone else, this looks like another one of those situations where different perspectives can cloud the issue, and I feel uncomfortable with adding to it. Maybe it’s an age thing kicking in but I can’t get worked up into a steam over this.
We’re fortunate that individualism and money haven’t corrupted the system to the hysterical degree seen in America. It's less dramatic by comparison but preferable to deeply divided single issue politics. If I recall, Prime Minister Blair did move to reign in lobbying and finance before this became an issue so, some sobriety is useful.
Putting issues of propriety and policing aside, I don’t think things are so bad. Some of the progress that’s in the air looks as if whatever’s going on at the moment is nothing terribly important in big picture terms. Reform of the House of Lords is on the agenda. This will remove some garbage and make way for more improvement as a clearer consensus develops.
Re: Simon (7.10am, 9th Nov)
- the analysis of Blair in deep trouble is accurate in relation to his personal popularity. It is not breaking news that he is unpopular, but it is looking as if the grand prime ministerial legacy will be realised in a negative, rather than the hoped-for positive, way.
For Blair, who made the Iraq decision out of a messianistic streak, imagining how the yet-to-be-written history books would cast both himself and Bush as possessing Churchillian-like stature, this is big trouble. For us mere mortals, it was obvious a few years ago that he was never going to be remembered fondly, but for Blair this is probably just dawning on him.
Regardless of any domestic progress in Britain in terms of child vouchers or New Deal Initiatives, Blair's administration will be regarded as a failure. The last couple of years will be looked on in the future as 'dark days', both in the UK and the US, when our international reputations went up in smoke, just like our national flags are being burned by baying crowds in far-off places. We have made no friends, only enemies, in a 'war' that was relevant mostly in terms of hearts and minds. The action against Afghanistan was right, but subsequent invasion of Iraq was stupid. 'Stupid' is a word that has become overused in respect of a misadventure started by Bush, but it is the only way to legitimately describe the outcome of that in terms of our international position.
You're right to compare election results in the US to next mays mid-term elections in the UK.There is no question that they too will be seen as a referendum on the Iraq war,and on Tony Blairs relationship with Pres Bush,so if Blair is stil PM at that time Labour will suffer catastrophic losses which will be difficult for them to recover from in time for the next general election,including major gains for the SNP in the Scotland Parliament elections.If labour MP's have any sense of self-preservation whatsoever they will beg Gordon Brown to take over at no 10 before those May elections .
Well Nick, you can get 25/1 on the PM chucking it all before the end of the year. Might be worth a tenner.
I think we have to be careful here that the police inquiry isn't taking on a life of its own, and about to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. All of those who are after Blair's blood for one reason or another are strangely quiet about the effect this investigation might be having on the running of the country; and about how long it's all taking. It could yet be months before the CPS decides whether there is a case to answer, and months again before charges are brought. And what's it all about again, remind me? Oh yes, something to do with a party's (or rather ALL the parties') internal ways of raising money for elections because we, the people expect to get democracy for nothing and won't fund them!
So what's new?
I'd like to see some eager journalist stop jumping on every bandwagon heading over the cliffs with Blair clinging on for dear life and ask - "who polices the police?" I've asked this on one of your other pages, Nick. Perhaps YOU should. After all, maybe there's more to surface from the police "leakers" that you referred to today than we know so far.
(Forgive me the little jibe, but as one with great respect for our police, I couldn't resist getting into the spirit of suspicion, innuendo and allegation which is alive and well these days.)
But then you know where I'm coming from:
Nick- the Burrell case. Buckingham Palace didn't change it's evidence at the last minute.
The Monarchy was assured by the police they had evidence that Burrell had attempted to sell the Princess's belongings. The Queen already knew that Burrell had items in his possestion.
The upshot was that the Royals reluctantly agreed to the prosecution. However, after case for the prosecution finished the Queen and Prince Charles both realised that such evidence hadn't been offered.
Hence the case fell over, because if Burrell hadn't tried to sell stuff on, they had no quarrel with him.
I'm not sure how this clear state of affairts has morphed into an urban myth.
Just what is Blair's problem? Brown doesn't want him. His party doesn't want him. The country doesn't want him. Even Washington's hardly likely to see him as an asset now.
So why the desperate longing to cling on for a few extra weeks? What's wrong with the man? It really is the most pathetic spectacle in politics since "I fight on - I fight to win". Actually that had a lot more dignity to it.
Barry - your statement is incorrect, no Lib Dem MPs have been questioned by Yates to date.