One big in-tray
The return of the prime minister from his holidays is one of those dates that marks the political calendar. It's not a particularly significant event in itself but it sends a signal out to the body politic that the earth around Westminster is moving again and it's time to re-enter the fray. The boss is back.
And as ever, Mr Blair comes back to face the consequences of a rather mixed summer. Since the Blairs departed for Barbados, John Prescott has reportedly described George Bush's foreign policy as "crap"; John Reid appears to have taken over the war on terror single handedly; the Labour party has dropped in the polls - nine points behind the Tories according to the latest figures - at the same time as running out of cash; there's been an internal row over whether the government should scrap inheritance tax. And worst of all, the prime minister has had to face accusations that he's got man boobs.
But all this, for the prime minister at least, is of nothing compared to the one big decision facing him: what should he say about his future? Some close to him say he simply has to say something in the next few weeks or at the party conference in Manchester at the end of September.
It is, they say, the only way to close down the endless speculation, rumour and plotting that will otherwise get in the way of anything Mr Blair wishes to do. What this camp wants is not a timetable or anything so crude as a precise departure date. No, they just want a nod and a wink that perhaps this will be his last conference or some other oblique utterance that could satisfy his critics and allow him to get on with the job.
Others close to the PM disagree. They want him to say nothing. Even the slightest hint of a departure date, they say, will make Mr Blair an impotent lame duck, haemorrhaging authority, unable to do anything in his final months of power.
Few know the prime minister's current thinking on this. Distrust all who say they know his mind. What is certain is that Mr Blair's got a packed few weeks lined up, three big speeches to think tanks and the TUC before his conference address. His officials talk of big announcements on social exclusion and education, he's preparing a fresh round of diplomacy on the Middle East before a possible trip to the region next month. The aim of all this activity is to show that he's still got petrol in the tank, that he's "fizzing with ideas" (which his aides say this time every year), that he's got momentum.
The big questions Tony Blair himself would like answered are this: what is the mood of the Labour Party and Labour MPs as they return from their holidays? Do they sense drift at the top or are they prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt once again, as they have done so before.
And what of Gordon Brown? He has maintained an almost monastic silence all summer since the birth of his latest child. What is he up to? What's he planning? Answers on a postcard to No10 Downing Street, please.
It's all shaping up for a fascinating, fluid few months of politics.
I'm 
Comments
So Blair is back. Where is Robinson?
Bob
Birmingham
The biggest issue the Prime Minister faces on all fronts isn't change but resistance to change. Rather than blame the Prime Minister for causing discomfort, I think, his own party, authorities, and public should deal with their own weakness first. Historically, Britain is a backward looking and conservative country. Yes, tradition and standing your ground are important but only one half of a competent whole. Being forward looking and flexible is equally important.
This is a personal challenge to everyone. Instead of following a media agenda of building someone up only to knock them down, a more calm and detached view will encourage a more real view of the world and other people. Instead of the tail wagging the dog, it allows some measure of real control over peoples lives to be returned to them. Some people, like drug addicts, may find bad habits difficult to let go of but it’s possible and the long-term rewards clear.
I really believe the Prime Minister is able to help realise solutions to the intractable difficulties at home and abroad, but this can’t happen if people put their own interests before others, and remain wedded to squabbling for the sack of squabbling. No, he may not be the beginning and end of heaven descending to earth, but a better world is made by change in the long-term. By allowing a little more tolerance and patience, we might all assist in creating a good end and a new beginning.
Too bad he is back too bad the MPs are back along with the Political Editors standing outside 10 Downing Street going on and on about the same issues. Its now becoming a parody of the Day to Day. You have Huw Edwards saying to Nick...Nick whats going on...Huw whats going on is this yak yak..well Huw and yet and yet..Huw..Nick thanks now to the Weather. Tell you what lets all have a really long break from Blair and his cronies and also the 91Èȱ¬ droning on second guessing etc.
It is not "drift" that the Labour Party and Labour MPs should sense at the top but mendacity and incompetence.
I am constantly amazed at Mr Blair's total lack of judgement - what on earth made him announce that he would not complete a third term of office? Whatever he does now he is in a no win situation all of his own making. Because of his ego he naturally would like to leave on a high but how? I believe he is desperately hoping that, in the next 12 months, we can bring back a token number of troops from Iraq - he will then use that to justify his policy for the invasion. This would be quite bogus of course! Whatever happens we have had a seismic change in politics whereby a major foreign policy (Iraq) and a major domestic policy (School academies) have been better supported by the main opposition party than his own.
As you are our best means of making Mr Blair accountable can you ask him some direct questions rather then have the usual flattening pious platitudes:
[1]Israelis have the undisputable right to self defence when subject to attack does he think Arabs have the right to resist Israeli forced occupation of their lands
[2]He has rightly condemned the rockets launched into civilian Israeli towns, he has not yet condemned Israeli use of cluster bombs in civilian towns- is that because Mr Bush is transiting arms to Israel from UK airports.
I don't care what he has to say. I care about one thing, the general election, where all shall be punished. This chap is out of the picture soon and I suspect that he doesn't care much if he leaves behind a bankrupt, un-sea-worthy and utterly lost remnant of a vessel.
As for the future noob of the healm... well I can't make my mind up about something that I can't see or hear or reason around. Who ever its going to be, it had better be a leader as we are in desperate need of one. This alone represents a tragedy for British politics as anguish is easily exploited.
History will not be kind to the Bush/Blair duo.
Interesting that you mention Brown's silence during the summer. A lot's happened this summer, but how are we supposed to know what his reaction to similar events will be when he's in charge?
Will he follow the same tack as PM or is he too scared of unpopularity to show his hand? As there won't be a chance for the electorate to choose the next Prime Minister I think we deserve some guidance from him as to what kind of government he will be running.
Classic stuff. Blair with moobs? It's time to move on methinks. Who's got a cute baby to show off to potential voters..?
There are some horrendously big issues floating around needing dealt with over the coming months on the domestic and the international scene. I sincerely hope that political editors and pundits appreciate this and focus on challenging our politicians about these rather than the frivolities of when the Labour leadership comes up for grabs - I don't really care when that happens, as long as there's an election for it.
If I ruled the world, as the song goes, everyday would be like the first day in office. And then there is Yesterday all my troubles seemed so far away from the Arc of extremism. Or the song about Jamaica and holidays, or the one about I've got a brand new start in Office and you have a brand new amnesiacs brain? Or I'm Free by the Who when he announces his retirement as PM or I'm a Pinball political Wizard?
I reckon its tough to be the Prime Minister, especially when your deputy has called your best mate crap allegedly..
Well speculatation aside, Mr Blair faces tough stuff, and rightly as he is accountable and responisble for what is going on.
As Geroge Michael said, "you gotta have faith" I say "Bah Humbug" cheers and thanks for guesting here James I thought you had gone on your holidays!
You forgot the Unity Trust Bank loan.
You write that this event has significance, because its shows Westminster is on the move again - is that why you have posted in 10 days?!
More seriously, surely this event means nothing, other than John Prescott is no longer in charge. The real action will start with Party Conference season, and waiting to see if Mr Blair will make a decision on leaving.
Blair has prolonged his time in office by pre-announcing his departure. There are many in Labour who would be agitating for him to go if he hadn't already said he was going soon enough. They now keep quiet, not because they support Blair, but because they don't want to be accused of disrupting the transition.
Blair can live with this stalemate. He's got nothing to gain by saying anything more definite about his departure.
Even an unofficial timetable would be a disaster. MPs would be forced to declare their views on what they want in the post-Blair era, and many would find this incompatible with continuing to vote with Blair in the Commons.
In-tray! I don't even think Blair even has one. A litter-tray maybe! Since the demise of the incorrigible Campbell, Tony Blair has become the most reactionary Prime Minister of our time even surpassing the great knee jerker himself Stanley Baldwin.
Trouble is, who should follow the Blair? Gordon, the man with so little charisma that even the coolest sun glasses and two hot bikini-wearing babes adorning each arm wouldn't improve the man's appeal. John Prescott? Er... nope. Dr John "go for your gun" Reid... well, only if it were high noon possibly. Hmm I'm Lost for anyone else now, I think Tony has effectively managed to see off any real threat to his position... But what of the Tories?
David "get me a presidential look" Cameron. This guy means business. Look at the picture of him on the 15th of August. Remind you of anyone? The draped curtains. The lectern, positioned inch perfectly at the centre of the multi-crossed framed window. The crooked hands of power reaching out to gently caress the neck some unseen terrorist! The crisp dry-cleaned suit. The shiny tie. The Klingon forehead. Qapla' Bush!
The picture, then, rather begs the question, whom would you rather have as the PM? A Bush Poodle who occasionally widdles on the president's well pressed trouser leg when there’s no lamppost in sight and he really must, absolutely, desperately have to go. Or our very own Bush who occasionally gets widdled on by everyone else when, quite unreasonably, other leaders mistake him for a beacon of hope. The answer is a purely a practical one. I know who I’d rather stand shoulder to shoulder with…...
Poodles and bushes....hmm maybe it's about time the poodle widdled on the Bush!
To get the poodle to widdle on the Bush instead of the furniture by necessity requires training. It’s time for the poodle to attend obedience classes. A chance for Alan Johnson to make a name for himself!
I would love Mr Blair to go back on holiday - permanently! Then maybe, just maybe, I'll move back to my home in the UK. Let him come to the Middle East, he'll realise how unpopular he is here and how, within the last month, he has single-handedly managed to do more to damage British interests in the Middle East region than any politician since Eden and the Suez Crisis.
A disguntled ex-pat in Cairo!
I think people would like to know why the management of the Labour party - while Blair was away - was seemingly handled by John Reid, not the deputy prime minister, John Prescott, who was rarely seen. Why was this? Interesting that party protocol seems to go out of the window at a moments notice.
I think Tony Blair is clever enough to read the tea leaves; he will start to drop hints about this being his last year in office as Prime Minister. I suspect that a year from now, Tony Blair will have retired and Gordon Brown should be in 10 Downing Street. Then the Political Polls should be interesting to watch. At the Present they are an illusion, once all the leaders are in place for the next elections then the polls are more truthful for the future.
There is a good reason to never vote Labour again---no matter who the leader may be. And here it is: the Labour party has no mechanism that can remove a leader, once he's in Number 10. That alone should frighten anyone and everyone into
voting in any party but Labour.
You say Mr. Blair will become "an impotent lame duck, haemorrhaging authority, unable to do anything". That fate sounds so excruciatingly painful that I'd imagine he'll be desperate to resign on the instant.
i wish the media would stop saying 'this is a turning point for Tony Blair' or 'is this a turning point for Tony Blair?'. I have heard this so many times in the last year that its starting to become a joke. People are saying that Charles Clarke latest jab at the PM will hurt him but havent we been here before as in when he was sacked?
NICK I AM GLAD I GET A CHANCE TO COMMENT I BELIEVE THIS GOVERMENT AS A WHOLE SHOULD RESIGN, WHY? ITS BECOMING OBVIOUS TO ME THAT EVEN WITH LABOURS CLAIMS OF SUSTAINED GROWTH THAT THEY ARE CLEARING THE COUNTRY OUT OF ITS HARD EARNED WAR CHESTS AND NHS MONEY.TAKE THESE LOVLEY NEW LABOUR HOSPITALS AND JOB TRAINING SCHEMES,Etc. MOST OF THESE ARE JUST BANKROLLING LABOURS TERM UNTIL NOW. NOW WE CAN SEE IT FALLING APART ON SUCH A MASIVE SCALE e.g.IT PROJECTS FAILING,SKILLS COURSES THAT CON MEN SELL YOU ON YOUR DOORSTEP THEN THEY RUN OFF WITH YOUR GOVERMENT GRANT ATTACHED TO IT ALSO THE SAME WITH SOLAR PANELS INSULLATION ETC ETC.. TAX AND BENEFIT MISTAKES I COULD GO ON. IT BOILS DOWN TO A NEW NEW LABOUR STYLE LABEL TYPE THINGYBOB DRIVEL....
SWAGBAG BRITAN...A BRITAN WHERE THE LESS YOU DO OR PUT IN THE MORE YOU GET
AND IF ITS ILLEAGL DONT WORRY YOUR
NOT GOING TO PRISON THERES NO ROOM
AND THE POLICE WONT CATCH YOU ITS MORE LIKLEY TO BE 91Èȱ¬s ROGUE TRADERS NOW THATS AN IDEA....
Who the hell cares about the Labour leadership speculations?
Let us have atleast some action on more important things ; the council tax, the inheritance tax, the NHS,the spurious politically generated wars inIraq and Afghanistan, the poor equipment given to our ill lead Armed services to fight them to name but a few.
Let us hope that , if the Labour party illogically remains in power , that the next leader is not a Scot.