Labour's World Cup strategy
Operation World Cup is under way.
No, not an op on Wayne's foot. And no, not a plan to combat hooliganism. This is Downing Street's not very secret strategy to steady the good ship Labour. The thinking's simple. If we can just make it to Saturday without sinking, then the public's minds will be on metatarsals, robot dances and barbeque fuel - and the papers will have more than enough to fill without needing to cover day 19 of the row about John Prescott.
In the meantime, the masterplan involves ensuring that Tony Blair's seen to be as busy as possible doing the public's business and not worrying about his own or his deputy's position.
That's why the cameras were invited in to a Cabinet committee for the first time yesterday. That's why he announced a policy he's announced before and dropped before on cutting housing benefit for those who are anti-social. That's why he met business leaders to discuss climate change today. And - this is the last "that's why", I promise - he's doing a web interview this afternoon taking questions from the public (which you can take watch and take part in by going to ).
This is the way Blair has survived previous crises - look calm in public and look busy too. On other occasions it's meant that he's been been able to defy all those who predicted - or hoped - that he'd be gone soon. Gordon Brown's supporters may wish to ponder whether the World Cup will allow him to escape again.
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Comments
Mr Blair's attempt to "bury bad news" underneath the World Cup will come to nothing if he can't recapture the agenda from scandal and Mr Cameron's pronouncements.
This is why I think Gordon Brown needs to launch a leadership contest very soon. The principles on which he decided all those years ago that he would not commit regicide no longer apply.
His party is already in near-terminal meltdown. A leadership contest would add to these woes in the short-term but it would do much to fix the long term problems that are developing within the party.
If Gordon Brown continues to stay silent then he risks being tarred along with the rest of the cabinet as being feckless and self-interested.
Even worse, his party might become so sterile and riddled with infighting that winning the next election will become almost impossible.
It is time for Gordon to kill the king - for the good of the party he holds so dear.
Number 11, of course, has its very own version of 'Operation World Cup' - try and convince the electorate in English constituencies that their man is willing to shed his Scottish tribalness for the next four weeks and 'back our boys'.
Almost as implausible as the dour, increasingly unpopular Scotsman waking up with a blast of the Arctic Monkeys in his iPod earphones, but 10 out of 10 for inventiveness. If nothing else, tabloid froth such as this helps keep stories out of the papers about his tax credits system getting yet another mauling from a committee.
I think some serious thinking is required by Labour and Tony Blair in the next few weeks. They can't afford to see if the England team doing well in the World Cup will avert the country's and media gaze for a while. There needs to be a recaptruing of integrity, vision for the future and certainty of direction in relation to policy and leadership - I would see that the time is now for a leadership contest.
Blair just doesn't get it does he. We don't want more useless initiatives, spin, and bluster. Stop legislating and start consolidating, sort out the shambolic public services, finish off the re-shuffle by getting rid of Prescott and get down to some hard graft, only then will Labour's polling results get better....
Of course none of that will happen as Blair has no power; being as he is, a muzzled mallard. All he can do is talk.
New Labour are finished.
It is a government in eternal decline, and is dying a long slow death. How long in terms of the final days are anyone's guess, but it is as much a lame duck administration as John Major's bunch of individuals.
Individuals is the key word here, as everyone seems to be working against each other and not together in a unified togetherness.
I see JP's odds of becoming the next Labour Party leader are 80/1 with a certain high street book-makers. Given the propensity of self-destruction within the party, it has got to be worth a flutter.
Tony is finished and hiding behind the smokescreen of the world cup is just delaying the inevitable. What is his agenda for the next 3 years? Why is he hanging on if not to frustrate Brown's PM ambitions? What has he really achieved except invading Iraq and some half baked constitutional reforms? Public Sector reforms? Don't make me laugh - Tony has only partially reintroduced the Conservative reforms he binned in 1997. A wasted decade with Labour in power.
I don't think the world cup can hide Tony's threadbare record. No doubt if England win Tony will claim the credit!
For similar reasons, Tories are hoping for a quick exit from the World Cup, I suppose.
Totally agree with Simon.
The New Labour project is dead. People are turning away from them because they do not support their policies.
Blair's "I don't have a reverse gear" mentality will just lose even more votes and ensure that unless he ousts Blair soon Brown can look forward to a nice spell as Leader of the Opposition.
It's time for someone to call the curtain on the increasingly swivel eyed performances by our august Leader, remove the management consultants from the public services and the spin doctors from Whitehall departments and start paying attention to the public.
Well the politics exam is over so you can have my political thoughts again Nick (whether you want them or not). I think this is a pretty good theory Nick and I don't see why it isn't true. I disagree with that first comment and I would much rather talk about the world cup than when Blair will go, when Prezza will go etc etc (and I don't like footbal so that shows how fed up with this endlass talk I am). We all should have learnt by now that Blair is pretty good at getting round these things and I think him and Prescott will ride out this one- we all know Brown will arrive so lets be worried enough about that and stop pushing Blair into things. Phew!!!
And, Operation World Cup will work. If this was a normal summer with a normal silly season, this might have been a whole different story...
Tony Blair is a master at "getting on with the job" the problem is, he only needs to "get on with the job" for so long. He has an inevitable departure, which, he and only he, knows when. Because Mr Blair has, like so many times in the past, weathered the storm his position is secure.
Mr Brown has consistently shown himself unable to have the guts to wield the knife.
Having said that, it may be out of fear, he would do well to remember two things, the first, that Micheal Heseltine didn't actually win the leadership race, John Major (Thatcher's candidate) did. So, the inveitable candidate doesn't always gain victory. The second, that the Labour majority is only 66, Major had a majority of around 100 when he went into the 1992 election. Despite the obvious signs of a Labour victory Major still came out with a majority of 21.
Brown does not have any comfort with a 66 majority, and the Lib Dems are on very shaky ground. The next election could be Cameron's.
Nick,
Bang on the money as ever.
If Blair survives until the World Cup, Gordon Brown can kiss good-bye to ever being Labour leader.
His monopoly position as alternative leader will be over. The jockeying for position as Deputy PM shows that.
Indeed, on the Odds Checker website today, he was no longer showing as the favourite to be Labour leader.
Admittedly, that was because they were mistakenly displaying DES Browne's odds against his name.
But maybe that is just an illustration that there's many a slip..and he may take over Ted Heath's record for the longest sulk in British political life.
How successful this tactic will be depends, I suppose, on how tolerant the public will be of their leader engaging in such displacement activity - if indeed they accurately recognise this for what it is. I suspect, however, that so many will be so involved with the football, the most popular displacement activity of all time, that they won't notice what Mr Blair is doing, or really care, for that matter.
Lucky Mr Blair.
Everything is sinister to you isn't it Nick?
Give it a break.
Come on England!
It is quite simple - Blair is a lame duck. As soon as he announced that he would not be staying as Labour Party leader for the next election, he ensured instability in the Government. That instability will only end when either Blair steps down of his own volition, or his party sums up the political will to depose him. The World Cup is merely a sideshow in this self inflicted melodrama.
I seem to remember that a World Cup did not save Margaret Thatcher in 1990 - nor (ironically) did Iraq's invasion of Kuwait
Why is it that commercially motivated newspapers who feel it more important to show John Prescott playing croquet than reporting on minor events like the thousands who died in the Java earthquake have such an influence on the way people think the government is performing? Why is when the boot is on the other foot its portrayed as devious and manipulating?
It's all really just the eye of the storm, though - quiet while England's fighting fit in the World Cup - but once we drop out disappointed, Blair will need to find something impressive to turn our dour moods to something positive about Labour. If he doesn't, it's just another troubled government with an even more deflated electorate.
2c.
Nick, have you considered the opposite view that the World Cup is stopping the Prime Minister from relaunching New Labour at the very moment New Labour slips past the tipping point in the opinion polls. The World Cup may save the Prime Minister but ironically it could lose New Labour the next election.
Of course Operation World Cup could backfire if the tabloids print some photos of Government ministers, on freebies, sat in the stands watching our heroic boys.
Gordon Brown supporting England, The man is utterly shameless.
A rare message in these parts this one - one of support for my Prime Minister.
Radical suggestion that we do let him get on with the job without constant speculation over his successor?
And on a similar theme, if TB had not announced he was going to contest a fourth election, would anyone really have believed he was intending to? I think even Tony Blair knew that was never going to be feasible - he would definately have reached his sell-by date (as the Oppostioin insist on calling it) by then.
Also had the Politics AS exam today... good luck all those who took it!
Last but not least, come on England!
The important thing, whatever Blair and Brown do to survive the next few weeks, is that the political media do not get sucked up into World Cup politics.
You must, Nick, keep your eye on the ball as regards issues like the two BILLION pounds tax credits fisco, why Dawn Primarolo has not been sacked, stealth taxes, how Blair thinks he's going to get out of the Iraq bloodbath, why the health service is sacking so many professionals, student fees reportedly rising, why so many public sector workers have had enough, why Tessa Jowell blindly signed for remortgages without asking her husband how the last loan was paid off. I could go on. And so should you! Leave Wayne Rooney et al to Gary Linekar and co.
Crisis?
What crisis?
Cute, all this "Blair weathering the storm" stuff.
Actually, Blair has just faced down our vague and imprecise constitutional proprieties - he has shown that a shameless and brazen PM cannot be removed from power before his term expires, (especially if buttressed by hundreds of 'placemen' MPs - e.g. the 'Blair babes in rebellion ? I don't think so !)
We don't do impeachments here.
I agree with Glenny
You have put forward a conspiracy theory without one single piece of solid evidence.
Next you'll be giving us your theories on the asassinations of JFK and Martin Luther King.
Would you prefer pictures of TB playing croquet or that he looks busy?
Must be awfully quiet in the 91Èȱ¬ newsroom at the moment for this one.
Operation World Cup will prove to be an own goal for Mr Blair. The gradual emergence of the Protest Vote Party which lets the electorate reject all candidates as unsuitable, to effectively vote ‘None of the Above’, will become his second yellow card. He will be despatched off the field of play as soon as possible so that Labour can counter this new unconventional threat.
Such a policy relies on England remaining in the World Cup as long as possible... I would be interested to know if you have any theories as to how Labour are going to handle the feel good or feel bad factor depending on what happens in Germany. On another tack is there any mileage in the Tories awakening the Midlothian Question if Brown becomes PM?
While the Gov's troubles will be relegated to the bottom of the left hand column on page 15 of the Sun during the World Cup, the Cup will be over in a month's time. Once the post mortem/celebrations have finished, media thoughts will turn unerringly to the next big event on the horizon - party conference season. If something big intervenes ("events, dear boy, events" to quote Macmillan), then it will be open season on Blair once again. And even if it doesn't there'll still be a lot of pressure on him to reveal more about his plans - and there'll be much Kremlinological analysis of everything he or Brown says, trying to divine the hint of a handover, or the whiff of a dispute.
Blair has repeatedly tried to push the reset button and "move on", yet it never seems to work. Iraq keeps on coming back into the headlines. Bad news keeps coming out of the NHS and the 91Èȱ¬ Office.
The sheer brazen hypocrisy of New Labour takes some beating. For Gordon Brown (busy banging the drum of "Britishness" despite being an architect of devolution) to claim that he will be backing England in the World Cup is breathtaking. Only yesterday he was announcing that university tuition fees (not applicable to his own constituents in Scotland of course) will have to go up. He can say and do anything to make himself acceptable to Middle England but I don't think it will work. Until the democratic defecit which is the famous "West Lothian question" is resolved fairly for England then no Scot sitting for a Scottish seat can be a Prime Minister.
The essential problem is that if Gordon Brown takes over this summer via a bloody overthrow it will damage the party and Labour’s re-election chances. Also it means Brown will have been PM for a considerable period of time before the next General Election in say 2009.
Should Brown wait for the ‘orderly transition’ in the summer of 2007? It has the advantage as Michael White said on Newsnight last night of giving Brown a bounce in the poll’s like Major, before the likely election in 2009. He would be quite fresh as Prime Minister to the electorate. But the problem is that Cameron will be publishing his policies around this time as well. What does Gordon do? One imagines he has many sleepless nights thinking this over.
It was Jonathan Powell (Blair’s Chief of Staff) who remarked to Boris Johnson, ‘Gordon Brown is like the guy who think he’s going to be king but never gets it. He’s never going to be Prime Minister.’
As people have said above the more Gordon Brown waits the more his political career becomes a ‘Shakespearean tragedy’.
Question is, how will Labour cope if
England go out in the first round? If an Iraq exit strategy is beyond them, how much more a World Cup exit strategy?
The only way to show up Brown is to let him be the next PM. Then we'll see when(and not if) the going gets tough, the tough will get going, or hide behind some photo opportunity shoot amongst innocent, smiling school children or babies, away from it all, as we have seen him do on every occasion. Some braveheart, Scotland!
I'm wondering if Alastair Campbell's snide and derogatory comments about you (and Andrew Marr) on his World Cup blog are his reaction to what you have posted here. I have great worries about Campbell and his like, about the considerable damage their irrationality and obstruction can do to the Society in which they live.
It's not a question of political ideology. I have such reservations about a number of people of all political hues. It's to do with their attitude, how and why they are SO sure they are right that everyone and everything else can be dismissed as an annoying irrelevance. Society at large seems to regard such certainty and fortitude as a positive, a demonstration of strength of character, and that is why the likes of Campbell are able to climb to positions of power.
But there is no path of reason that can lead one to such certainty. The only way one can get there is to observe and absorb only that which is supportive to your preconception of how things are, or how they should be. ALL other observations are not so much wrong, as not there at all. Can Society be made aware that such an attitude, far from being an exhibition of mental strength, is actually a sign of psychological disorder (known I believe as scotomisation)? We would all be a lot better off if it could.
There isn't much I can do to get these thoughts out into the public imagination, but if you were so inclined..........
Whilst not being a football supporter it still great to see the world cup has arrived. At least the journalist should be able to report the scores correctly, more than can be said for some of their lurid and biased views on politics
He can't survive, mainly because the Labour party won't survive if they ignore public opinion for much longer. I'm looking forward to party conference, which is when I think the SOT will begin. Then I'm off to university to do a PHD in history just so I get to define his past! You gotta love history its so diffinitive lol.
I would be interested to hear some more about that lovely man, John Prescott.
How is his croquet handicap? Has he punched anybody lately? Has he got a new diary secretary? Has he swopped a Jag or two for a couple of Toyotas?
The public needs to know the answers to these questions!
If Tony Blair can not even keep a 'pledge' to those disappointed schoolchildren who missed out on seeing a World Cup match, what chance is there for him keeping his other promises?
In fairness to Blair, those kids are going now..