91Èȱ¬

Paul Mason:

Yes, the numbers are not that easy...And, my own prediction is Q1) 177,600,000,000

And, on a side note; I am not considering a career in the economic think tank!

~Dennis Junior~

I predict 22.

I am a professional market-maker.

Q1) 177,600,000,000 UK£, predicted budget deficit
Q2) 787 US$ billion US Govt Stimulus package
Q3) 200,000,000,000 UK£, amount issued so far in BoE QE programme
Q4) 33.87 US$ Increase from low to high of crude oil price in 2009
Q5) 1217.40 US$ Record high (in absolute, not inflation adjusted) point for gold per ounce
Q6) 1,630,000 UK unemployment claimant count in December 2009
Q7) 3,512 FTSE 100 low point in March 2009
Q8) 64.30 Percentage increase in the FTSE since its low point until today (why didn't I see that coming???)
Q9) 325,000 UK£ - Goldman Sachs average pay
Q10) 22 No of new Chinook helicopters that the Govt will buy as recently announced by Bob Ainsworth

Q1) 177,600,000,000 = a very large number only nerds and economists comprehend or assign real meaning to respectively.

Q2) 787 = no of politicians in both houses implicated in the expenses scandal.

Q3) 200,000,000,000 = q1...rounded up

Q4) 33.87 = % VAT rate needed to balance the books

Q5) 1217.40 = highest % interest rate charged by a business regulated by the FSA legally.

Q6) 1,630,000 = a fraction of the real unemployment claimant count number if you factor in short time working and incapacity benefit.

Q7) 3,512 = shopping days to christmas 2019 (approx)

Q8) 64.30 = This one has me stumped for some reason!

Q9) 325,000 = number of reasons we there should be a public enquiry into the infiltration into government and the activities of Goldman Sachs (see post 3 above)on both sides of the atlantic

Q10) 22 = no of reasons why gordon brown should resign for putting his own pet projects to hold onto power ahead of protecting our troops (see post 3 above).

Is this list supposed to constitute some teasing harmless intellectual conundrum over the 'hijacked pagan festival' period Paul?

Anyone trying to decipher the list is more likely to attempt to drown themselves in the soup starter rather than be intrigued to find out the answers on boxing day!!

1)No. of paracetemol taken over Xmas.
2)Unwanted socks, ties and deoderant average man receives in lifetime.
3)Years to pay off Xmas at minimum credit card payment.
4) Average Units of Alchohol consumed by a man on Xmas Day
5)Aggregate lifetime cost of husband's presents
6)Aggregate lifetime cost of wife's presents
7)Pine needles still in carpet by next November
8)Hours spent queuing over xmas period
9)square Km of brussel sprouts grown under EU subsidy per annum
10) cubic meters of methane per capita produced from consumption of (9)

Nobody has got them all but one has come close. Drat! Should have done some "square root of the unemployment figure" trick qs. But no outright winner yet.

See #3 above

Q8 - billion euros, equivalent of sterling govt capitalisation bank bailout Oct 2008
Q9 - sterling IHT tax threshold to be increased by Tories, and not by Labour
Q10 - billion dollars offered from developed nations to save the world at Copenhagen

Merry Xmas

177,600,000,000 - something to do with coal reserves in China if I remember correctly.

787 - Boeing 787 ?

200,000,000,000 - QE - money tree down the garden of B of E

33.87 - no idea

1217.40 - gold price high in 09 or council tax some where

1,630,000 - no idea

3,512 - no idea but I know there is a Porsche engine with that number

64.30 - JSA I'm told - on the dole (not that I am yet)

325,000 - I know this - its terrorists suspects

22 - oh please it could be just about anything

Here are the answers. Nobody got the whole thing but one blogger, Conservative councillor Ross Grant of Leicester, came close on his Leicester Politics blog.



A1) GBP, projected UK budget deficit 09-10
A2) USD, Obama’s fiscal stimulus package
A3) GBP eventual size of quantitative easing
A4)USD lowest trading price of oil on Nymex
A5) USD peak of the gold price on 3 December 2009
A6) people. UK claimant count in November 2009
A7) points. FTSE 100 low on 3 March 2009
A8) GBP – the current rate of Adult JSA
A9) GBP the current rate of inheritance tax
A10) Chinooks. The number of new Chinooks announced by Bob Ainsworth in December 2009

Q1) 177,600,000,000 projected population of the UK 2050
Q2) 787 average lunch bill for an MP at Westminster(no tip)
Q3) 200,000,000,000 the largest note printed once the pound hyperinflates
Q4) 33.87 the average IQ of an MP
Q5) 1217.40 The number of people left in work at the end of 2010
Q6) 1,630,000 The number of tax centre staff employed to process above
Q7) 3,512 Number of times Labour have done a U turn
Q8) 64.30 amount made per minute by Tory Front Bench
Q9) 325,000 number of books written about the crash(guess what I got)
Q10) 22 average time in seconds viewer watched newsnight or any other programme like that , before reaching for the remote and turning over to a re run of coronation street

"[BOXING DAY UPDATE: Cllr Ross Grant of Leicester (Conservative) has come closest to the answers."

I know there is 'no prize', but on my count I got 7 right and Cllr Grant got 6!

11. At 10:02pm on 26 Dec 2009, Matt Durbin wrote:

Good job it was not an exercise in naming cats.



Watertight oversight in action? Or just what works best as viewed from the edit suite?

10. At 1:22pm on 26 Dec 2009, romeplebian

LoL. Superb.

Won't try to match, but, Spinal Tap styly...

Q11) 3 - Number have times I have had roughly the same reply from ever escalating bods trying to make my questions on the accuracy of science claims made in 'proof' of various 91Èȱ¬-endorsed narratives all about the relative representation of counter-views, which I never mentioned.

No11.

Just goes to show you have to be an established politician of some description on the 91Èȱ¬ in order for your opinion to be accepted.. the cllr did not even post his answers on this site, got more wrong than you and was still declared the winner!!

Either that or Newsnight's economics editor can not count!

Good job there is no prize I would say or we could have another scandal on our hands.

ps

For the benefit of the jittery 91Èȱ¬ equality and fairness police the above is meant to be a lighthearted dig at Mr masons expense, this is also known as friendly banter or 'taking the ****', all of which are essential oils in the wheels of everyday social life in the UK and assists in reminding indivduals in positions of influence that they are still members of the human race (Gordon brown excepted of course - he clearly comes from another planet in a parallel universe where he 'saved the world' thanked the city from the bottm of his heart and was the 'prudent' Iron Chancellor ).

Bless him.

Now, I wouldn't stand a snowflake in hell's chance of getting many of these BUT, (and I know it was a bit of fun) it strikes me as a Christmas Foul (Roger - spelling intended this time!) and a rotting one at that.

Insider dealing assumed since any politician most certainly contributed to the numbers quoted. Are we even sure the illusive Cllr Ross Grant of Leicester (Conservative) didn't set the questions. He certainly asked for assistance on his Blog page, (Help Needed With Paul Mason's Quiz

The 91Èȱ¬'s Paul Mason has done an economy quiz on the Newsnight site, and having had a go I am hoping readers of the blog can help - either telling me if my answers or wrong, or better helping to fill in the gaps) and didn't even post answers on the NN BLOG.

Bad show!

OK Matt, I must have judged that in a haze of Wild Turkey You win

Any chance you can do a predictions for 2010 with a panel of proper experts, I watched one on sky news it was appalling

#16 - am doing one on Tuesday 5 Jan. But I will offer you one off-piste for free: Iran's going to be a very different place tis time next year.

I managed 8 out of 10. (Saddo)

I now realise I have wasted far too many hours this year, reading blogs like this and some of the more anarchic on the web.
I shouldn't have to know this stuff, I ain't in the financial sector.
Gone are the days that we can trust government and much of the mainstream media to inform the people honestly.

Prize for Paul Mason for ploughing a lonely furrow;
special prize should go to Jericoa for best entry.

17. Paul Mason

look forward to it
I've just finished your book that I got for Christmas,you pretty much nailed my thoughts of what's happened and the explanation of the various schools of thought was very helpful.




No tax for salaries under £20,000
90% tax on income over a million quid per year
de privatise water and power :(water is public owned in Scotland)
abolish council tax

No18

Nice to know someone appreciates my efforts!

Probably sensible not to encourage me though or I could end up with delusions of grandeur hence entering on the slippery slope to being a politician or jornalist or some other profession which requires a degree of narcisism as a prerequisite :).


n0.19

I havent read the book (I would not want to encourage paul too much either).

It is a shame they did not nationalise the banks when they had the chance. Hence in the Uk we remain at the mercy of unelected spivs whom hold the real power, recently exercised with the law lords throwing out the 'punitive bank charges' case at the last hurdle against the majority public view.

Simon cowell was right in his recent NN interview...there is a serious problem with the justice system in this country which has crept in over many years.

AND THE WINNER IS --------------------------------------- No 10

The best laugh I have had all Xmas romeplebian. Take the rest of the year off.

I don't know where you got all these figures from - everything is just hunky dory now. Gordon has just told us so.

Unemployment will not get any higher, house prices are rising nicely and the 91Èȱ¬ is bending over backwards to tell us that the shops are bursting at the walls with all the squillions of shoppers spending. We've all started to party like it is 1997 all over again.

So what if we spend a few hundred billion here or there? In the grand scheme of things it is nothing. The most important thing is to buy... er, to stay in power.

#22 Tactical Voting

I reckon the best thing we can do is all vote labour, it will facilitate such a meltdown in confidence and finacial crisis that it may actually be the precursor for the much deeper longer lasting change that is really needed and non of the main parties offer.

It would also satify the criteria of 'justice being seen to be done' as labour would have to try to clean up the mess they have made and with nobody else to blame, rather than being sat on the3 opposition benches sniping at the conservatives trying to get through an as yet undeclared national crisis.

From a party political perspective (Spoil party Games) and in the nations best long term interests, in a bizare way it may be better to vote labour this time and in so doing expose the whole charade that has become politics.

I think we would see an even more rictus like grin on Gordan's face than usual if he actually did win the next election. In the deepest part of labours psychy, i suspect they would prefer to lose this one, not too badly, but lose it non the less but be in a strong enough position to come back within 1 or 2 terms as the new government inevitably struggles with what will be a very painful time.

They are already sewing the seeds...'Gordon said the conservatives would wreck the economic recovery in his Christmas address to the nation..he was right..they have....look at the mess we are in now,, cuts cuts cuts, double dip recession etc etc.

Those sneaky labour people..

Dont let them get away with it.

Apart from "Call me Gordon", Harriet Harman and Co I don't think anyone else is going to vote.

I have had the interesting experience in recent days of listening to hardened Labour supporting journalists, of Print and of Broadcast, angsting over how they can never bring themselves to vote Tory but who now, finally, feel that Labour either do not deserve their votes... or who actually feel that Labour has betrayed them and the people! Strong stuff from the luvvie brigade.

The mess in the economy, the issue of ID cards and turning the country into a semi-Police state, the wars, the bloodshed and the scandal of Parliamentary expenses were amongst numerous issues mentioned and, even amongst the female journalists, there was a feeling that the political correctness, seemingly anti-male, agenda of Ms. Harman had simply gone too far. Wow - female journalists now thinking that British men were having a hard time under Labour!

When, in one conversation, I raised the question of them possibly voting Liberal it took several minutes for any of them to remember the Liberal leader's name - if a bunch of journalists cannot remember, um, his name then what chance the great British unwashed, unemployed and heavy in debt!?

#16

Making socio economic predictions for 2010 is a bit like nailing jelly to the wall at the moment. In the absence of any 'experts' why dont we have a go so we can compare against Paul's Tuesday night guests.

Likely driving underlying factors are:

Sovereign debt..keeping the lid on it. The boys in the IMS will have another busy year.

Continuance of the transfer of prosperity from west to east.

Tentative recovery in some economies will be stifled by oil security of supply concerns (Iran)/ middle east stability generally / rising prices to meet demand generally.

Re-emergence of Islamic extremism (I think they have been re-grouping of late)


Net result:

Asia will continue to do ok generally as will countries with a varied comodities base (not 1 trick ponies)combined with reasonable governance (australia / Brazil)


The west will have a turbulent time, there will be some high profile corporate collapses post christmas. Budgets will be cut, there will be strikes as living standards are eroded and taxes raised, this will be against a backdrop of increased instability overseas stretching security.

Therefore invest in the east, varied comodities economies and defence, take short positions in western stockmarkets (especially travel, luxury items and anything reliant on oil) towards the end of the first quarter.


Off you go then Hedge funds, go and make a few Billion.

#25 Jericoa

Interesting summary. For the home economy we're looking at the potentially permanent loss of c. 6% capacity on the supply-side and weak demand going forward.The labour force is being held together by pay-freezes and part-time working. There must be several thousand small/medium-sized businesses looking for a third annual roll-over of loans, with interest payments being serviced, but only just. When that scale tips - banks' auditors will have a say in whether and if there will be further rollovers, this isnt all about what happens to interest rates- things will get more difficult and insolvencies will increase and/or merger and acquisitions will increase and competition decrease. Businesses are already being told to adapt to a low-credit environment and find ways to finance through partnerships, collaborations and jvs. For those left standing prices will harden in commodities, oil and imports and they will pass those through to customers given their stronger market position.

Meanwhile UK banks are getting contingency plans together to raise another £33 billion of capital and working out how to refinance £1 trillion of wholesale funding in the period to 2015. Whilst tremendous efforts will be made to kick-start new better-regulated RMBS and covered bond markets, existing secuitised loans are going to hang around banks' necks.

If Asia / emerging markets / US / Australia jack-up their interest rates, we'll get dragged along. The G20 consensus will weaken, each state for itself.

I dont see the BoE selling off their QE-bought gilts anytime soon for fear of weakening the sovereign debt market. A very careful equlibrium!

Somehow we will need to learn to consume less and export more and replace government spending with new business investment. Fiscal policy post-election might follow these themes.

Recovery in US/Eurozone export markets could soften the blows coming at us, but they might well have a second-wave credit crunch themselves.

Meanwhile we all keep friendly with BRIC and they will keep buying our technologies and manufacturing capacity.

#26

''Somehow we will need to learn to consume less and export more and replace government spending with new business investment. Fiscal policy post-election might follow these themes.''

I hope you are right, that is the most sensible summary of what the government should be doing I have seen and all it took was 2 straightforward sentences to explain what the national strategy should be developed around!

Why can't our politicians and so called 'experts' be so straighforward and simple about things! Why can't they communicate them directly to the population and plan openly to implement it making it clear who will lose in the short term, who will win in the short term, why it is required and how by following it as a nation, in the long term and for our children we will all be better off. It may even engender a sense of comaradery amongst citizens again, something which is desperately needed, society just seems to be fragmenting at the moment, slowly but surely.


As usual in my simplistic 'Engineer' structured, disciplined, unleveraged thinking type way (otherwise you risk buildings collapsing)I must be missing something obvious our 'leaders' and 'experts' understand and I dont, something which requires them to produce endless streams of meaningless verbal gymnastics designed to manipulate and confuse rather than inform, empower and motivate a nation of generally great people.


Strewth!!!

What a waste!!


Happy new year everyone by the way and thanks for all the debate, which I have both enjoyed and learnt a tremendous ammount from the various posters on here over the last year. Thanks to facilitator PM as well of course for providing santuaries of sensible journalism for us to cling onto like ship wreck survivors on the open sea.

Sorry about my spelling and poor English generally, I hope it does not bother people too much, I seem to have an intellectual blind spot for that sort of thing.

#27 Jericoa
The 2005 election delivered a majority Labour government with 55% of the seats in the House of Commons but based on only 35% of the votes cast. Only 21% of those eligible to vote voted for the Government. The turnout was a disasterous and shameful 61.3%.This is the seond worst turnout since 1918. Election strategies are designed to suit boundaries, differential turnouts, core votes and marginals. Of itself this works against the adoption of a truly national viewpoint by a party and you get fudge and double-speak.

It's a broken system - it needs to be fixed, starting with an obligation on all those eligible to vote to b....y do so!

Paul

It's getting to you, man

Do you know any jokes?

#28 Shireblogger

'.....starting with an obligation on all those eligible to vote to b....y do so!'

I understand your point................ BUT

Have you ever watched Big Brother, Strictly Come Dancing, X Factor etc?
Your faith in the judgement and integrity of the voting public is obviously higher than mine.

#30
Is this a generational thing? Those who have been brought up in the consumer society - you know, looking for quick fixes and someone else to blame if things go wrong in their lives - think politicians are there to sell ideas/policies like mobile phones. How do they make their lives convenient,easier and more enjoyable in the short run. Journalists test the policies against the interest groups/minorities that could be adversely affected.Political power, rather than there to serve the common good, has gained the appearance of becoming self-serving to the political classes and the bigger the state machine, the more it appears to serve those employed by it or dependent on it. The more difficult it now becomes for politicians to lead on changes which could cause pain to the swing-voters in the marginals and urban areas.

But real leadership could break the malaise. I heard Gordon Brown this morning on his vision for the Nation : we can become the pharmacists,bio and green technologists, educaters,filmakers, playwrights, fashion designers and music-producers of the world. His vision is that it's Government's job to invest in these industries for growth. He left out weapon-makers of the world. He looked a bit lost when Marr asked him what had happened to our manufacturing base and pointed out that windfarms, nuclear power stations and other hard technologies are all made elsewhere and that our car manufacturing is now foreign-owned.His answer appeared to be that Marr was running UK plc down by making his points. I wonder if Paul could take Brown's vision and assess it as a realistic vision given the contributions these sectors make/are likely over the next decade to make to UK GDP etc and how much is government going to invest in them. What's Cameron's vision??

#30

I quite enjoy 'strictly' , in the same way i enjoyed The generation game' in the 70's and Blankety blank in the 80's..its just entertainment.

#31

Just goes to show how utterly out of touch Gordon is, the industries he mentions simply can never provide enough employment to keep everyone busy..period. You can not nurture that level of expertise, sending 40% of kids to uni has simply lowered standards and raised expectations for a generation, it has not created a 'super nation' (god forbid) populated entirely by top end experts with the world beating a path to our door to get our 'advice' and fashion tips!!.

There is an opportunity out there to do something truely great but none of our leaders are up to it as far as i can see. At this point in time I would be tempted to go for labour in the hope that they win and unleash such a nightmare that it allows something new to emerge. Nobody is radical enough, they are all way behind the curve, driving by looking in the rear view mirror via 'focus groups', 'think tanks' and electoral analysts.

Pathetic leadership..

Cameron has just said

"But it’s not enough just to deal with the deficit.

To have a hope of competing in the decades to come, our economy needs a complete overhaul.

We need to build an enterprise economy.

We need to create opportunity through green growth and new skills.

We need change right across the board: tax, regulation, banking, infrastructure.

And that’s exactly what we're planning – from a cut in the main rate of corporation tax…

…to a new high-speed rail network…

…to the creation of 100,000 apprenticeships.

If we win this year's election Britain will be under new economic management.

We will send out the loudest signal that this country is back open for business and ready for investment.

Decline is not inevitable. Confidence can return.

If we take action now – to get a grip on the public finances and unleash enterprise – Britain can have a bright economic future."


A lot of meat on that bone, then?

#32 Jericoa

'..... I quite enjoy 'strictly' , in the same way i enjoyed The generation game' in the 70's and Blankety blank in the 80's..its just entertainment.'

I like 'Strictly' too. Love it for the glamour and elegance sometimes in evidence. But I think you maybe misssed my point - which was about the Great British Public and their ability to vote for the right thing and the right reason.

I think one of our regular posters here may have the right idea. Pick a local independent candidate to represent you in parliament - one who doesn't have a party line to toe; one who may be be ballsy enough to rattle cages; one with decency and integrity to ask tough questions and keep asking them; to take tough decisions and offer just reason truthfully.

That's where my determied effort is - in seeking just such a messiah.

I just hope it is not too late.

N0.34

I Understand now.

I do hope Simon Cowel sets up a political version of his show formats outside of mainstream politics as he suggested he may pre election.

Media as a whole seems to provide air time based on the following hierarchy:

1) Incumbent power (labour, Cons, lib dems, Ukip, greens) in that order of air time given)

2) Titilation 'news' factor which the likes of the BNP benefit disproportionatly from.The greens are reduced to throwing odd bits of 'street theater' just to get coverage of any kind,which becomes self defeating as the only time you see the greens on the news is when they are either dressed up as aliens or handcuffed naked to a tree.....hardly the right public perception required for them to be taken seriously..yet they do have some good well thought out policies (as far as I can make out).

Therefore nothing else either credible or tangible can break the existing comfortable cartel unless something comes along to 'shake it up'.

Enter stage left simon Cowell...could be interesting!!

or a pantomine!!

Quite a challenge to pull that one off, but with modern technology why do we need a HOP or a justice system in its current form to make decisions on our behalf?

Why do we need law lords to make a judgement on ' a point of law' when the people can do it directly on issues like ' punitive OD charges' for example using cyber jury system.

I dont know the answers and i am sure there are many issues with that last suggestion, but these sort of question should at least be asked. Thee context in which we live has changed via technology, but our system of governance and justice has not..hence the ever growing 'disconnect' between peoples lives, justice and government.