Three key tests for David Cameron
- 8 Feb 08, 06:08 PM
Quietly, and barely noticed, people in the political community are starting to contemplate a change of government, and to prepare for it. Government political advisers are putting out feelers for jobs in the private sector. Left-leaning think tanks, lobbyists and PR firms who鈥檝e all thrived in the years of New Labour, are starting to re-orientate themselves, trying to recruit more staff with Conservative backgrounds, all in readiness for the day they will have to prove their worth under a Cameron regime, and show strong personal links with his likely team of ministers.
But personally I am far from convinced that David Cameron will emerge from the next election as Prime Minister 鈥 if you put a gun to my head I鈥檇 say it鈥檚 still only 50-50. Despite Gordon Brown鈥檚 troubles (and continuing gloom in the Labour ranks), I know that many leading Conservatives privately share my doubts about their prospects.
It鈥檚 that 2008 doesn鈥檛 yet have the feel of the years 1994 to 1997, when the newly elected Tony Blair inspired a genuine popular enthusiasm for New Labour, which by 1996 became a widespread assumption that Labour would return to power. Whilst many of the public have severe doubts about Gordon Brown and the Labour government, they aren鈥檛 yet convinced that David Cameron is the answer, or has the answers.
And whilst the Tories are ahead in the polls, they aren鈥檛 yet matching Tony Blair鈥檚 huge double-digit (often more than 20 per cent) leads of the mid-1990s. And remember the huge bias in the electoral system which means (depending on which analysis you trust) the Conservatives have to get between six and ten per cent head of Labour simply to win an equal number of seats.
To persuade me that David Cameron is on his way to Downing Street let me pose three tests.
The Archbishop of Canterbury has attracted widespread criticism after appearing to back the adoption of some aspects of Sharia law in the UK. Dr Rowan Williams said the UK had to "face up to the fact" some citizens did not relate to the UK legal system. 
They'll be discussing British artist Peter Doig's retrospective at Tate Britain (Watch an extended version of 
Politicians from all the main parties have criticised the Archbishop of Canterbury for suggesting that elements of Islamic law might be recognised in Britain. Some senior Anglican priests have defended his remarks - saying Dr Rowan Williams was talking about decisions relating to marriage and property, not crimes or questions of belief.