Go on, admit it. How many of you were tipping for the 2010 world championship at the start of the year?
Hugely popular, massively likeable, a sports nut who's as happy to shoot the breeze about , or as he is to talk about Fernando Alonso, or Bernie Ecclestone.
But Jenson Button's successor as the next Formula 1 champion? Alonso, Lewis Hamilton or Sebastian Vettel maybe, but not the 34-year-old Australian who had only won his first grand prix in 2009.
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After his worst run of results in Formula 1, came to Suzuka looking for a strong start to a weekend that could make or break his challenge for the world championship.
If you think that sounds a touch melodramatic, then bear in mind the words of one leading official who told me on Thursday evening: "If he fails to score here, it's game over."
Having failed to finish three of his last four races and watched and overtake him in the standings, the last thing the 2008 champion needed was an early accident in practice.
But halfway through the , on his first proper run of the day, that's exactly what happened.
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